2008 Top to Bottom
Back at the end of July, I posted a study of team's conference records, arguing that the more the teams at the bottom of the conference upset the teams at the top, the more balanced the conference is as a whole. Well here's what the 2008 season gave us - conferences are listed from most balanced to least balanced.
(As a refresher, the numbers are the margin of victory or loss for the teams in the first column on the left. The green games were between teams with the same conference record, red games were statistical upsets, and blue games were not upsets.)
| ACC 2008 - 29.0% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | BC | VA Tech | Fla St | GA Tech | UNC | Maryland | Wake F | Clemson | Miami | NC St | UVA | Duke |
| Boston College (5-3) | 5 | 10 | -3 | -21 | 7 | 3 | -6 | 7 | ||||
| Virginia Tech (5-3) | -5 | -10 | 3 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 3 | 11 | ||||
| Florida St (5-3) | -10 | 10 | -3 | 34 | -9 | 14 | 2 | 9 | ||||
| Georgia Tech (5-3) | 3 | -3 | 3 | -21 | 4 | 18 | -7 | 27 | ||||
| North Carolina (4-4) | 21 | -3 | 21 | -2 | 4 | -31 | -3 | 8 | ||||
| Maryland (4-4) | -7 | -10 | -34 | 2 | 26 | 3 | 3 | -31 | ||||
| Wake Forest (4-4) | -3 | 9 | -26 | 5 | -6 | -4 | 11 | 3 | ||||
| Clemson (4-4) | 6 | -14 | -4 | -3 | -5 | 18 | 10 | 24 | ||||
| Miami (FL) (4-4) | 2 | -2 | -18 | -4 | 6 | -10 | 7 | 18 | ||||
| NC State (4-4) | -7 | -9 | 31 | -3 | 4 | -18 | 10 | 10 | ||||
| Virginia (3-5) | -3 | 7 | 3 | 31 | -11 | -10 | -7 | -28 | ||||
| Duke (1-7) | -11 | -27 | -8 | -3 | -24 | -18 | -10 | -28 |
We knew the ACC was nutty this year. Part of the reason their upset percentage is so high is because they had a ton of teams with the same record - 11 of the 12 were at 5-3, 4-4, or 3-5. Even so, they still racked up 9 upsets. (Remember, 50% upset rate is the highest possible, and 30% is the highest a conference has achieved in the BCS years.) About as balanced as you get.
| SEC 2008 - 19.0% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Bama | Fla | UGA | Miss | SC | Vandy | LSU | Tenn | Auburn | KY | Miss St | Ark |
| Alabama (8-0) | 11 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 36 | 3 | 25 | 35 | ||||
| Florida (7-1) | 39 | -1 | 50 | 28 | 30 | 24 | 58 | 31 | ||||
| Georgia (6-2) | -11 | -39 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 4 | 4 | ||||
| Mississippi (5-3) | -4 | 1 | -7 | -7 | -6 | 18 | 10 | 45 | 2 | |||
| South Carolina (4-4) | -50 | -10 | -7 | -7 | 21 | 7 | 7 | |||||
| Vanderbilt(4-4) | -28 | -14 | 6 | 7 | -10 | 1 | 7 | -3 | ||||
| LSU (3-5) | -6 | -30 | -14 | -18 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -1 | ||||
| Tennessee (3-5) | -20 | -24 | -4 | -21 | 10 | -2 | 18 | 31 | ||||
| Auburn (2-6) | -36 | -4 | -10 | -1 | -5 | 2 | 1 | -3 | ||||
| Kentucky (2-6) | -3 | -58 | -7 | -7 | -18 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Mississippi St (2-6) | -25 | -45 | 3 | -10 | -31 | -1 | 3 | |||||
| Arkansas (2-6) | -35 | -31 | -2 | -7 | 1 | 3 | -1 | -3 |
Solid showing for the SEC this year. Florida blew everybody out of the water, but most of the other games were pretty close. The bunchup at the bottom between the 2-6 teams helped get their percentage higher.
| SunBelt 2008 - 16.7% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Troy | LA-Laf | Ark St | Fla Atl | Mid TN St | Fla Intl | LA-Mon | N Texas |
| Troy (6-1) | 45 | 26 | 13 | 14 | 10 | -1 | 28 | |
| LA-Lafayette (5-2) | -45 | 5 | -11 | 14 | 29 | 9 | 29 | |
| Arkansas St (4-3) | -26 | -5 | 14 | 17 | -1 | 8 | 5 | |
| Florida Atl (4-3) | -13 | 11 | -14 | -1 | 7 | 1 | 33 | |
| Middle TN St (3-4) | -14 | -14 | -17 | 1 | -10 | 3 | 39 | |
| Florida Intl. (3-4) | -10 | -29 | 1 | -7 | 10 | -4 | 32 | |
| LA-Monroe (3-4) | 1 | -9 | -8 | -1 | -3 | 4 | 12 | |
| North Texas (0-7) | -28 | -29 | -5 | -33 | -39 | -32 | -12 |
Most of the reason that people didn't notice the balance in the SunBelt this year is because they went 13-27 in non-conference matchups. So even though the conference was balanced, it was extremely weak.
| CUSA 2008 - 14.6% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Tulsa | Rice | East Car | Houston | Memphis | S Miss | UTEP | UAB | UCF | Marshall | Tulane | SMU |
| Tulsa (7-1) | 35 | -40 | 42 | 23 | 30 | 3 | 49 | 6 | ||||
| Rice (7-1) | -35 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 29 | ||||
| East Carolina (6-2) | -17 | 20 | -18 | 32 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||||
| Houston (6-2) | 40 | -14 | 17 | 5 | 25 | -14 | 28 | 6 | ||||
| Memphis (4-4) | -7 | -20 | 6 | 3 | -7 | -1 | 39 | 5 | ||||
| Southern Miss (4-4) | -5 | 18 | -6 | -3 | 56 | 11 | -7 | 16 | ||||
| UTEP (4-4) | -42 | -5 | -32 | -5 | 3 | 45 | 3 | 26 | ||||
| UAB (3-5) | -23 | -4 | -25 | -3 | -56 | 15 | 2 | 17 | ||||
| UCF (3-5) | -30 | -3 | 7 | -11 | -45 | -15 | 16 | 14 | ||||
| Marshall (3-5) | -3 | -25 | -3 | 14 | 1 | 7 | -2 | -16 | ||||
| Tulane (1-7) | -49 | -25 | -4 | -28 | -39 | -3 | -17 | 7 | ||||
| SMU (0-8) | -6 | -29 | -6 | -5 | -16 | -26 | -14 | -7 |
Lotsa teams in pairs or trios here, which pushed the CUSA's percentage up. Marshall was most of the reason for this conference's balance - the Herd's three wins all came against teams ahead of them in the standings.
| Pac10 2008 - 14.0% upsets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | USC | OR St | Oregon | Cal | Arizona | AZ St | Stanford | UCLA | Wash | WA St |
| USC (8-1) | -6 | 34 | 14 | 7 | 28 | 22 | 21 | 56 | 69 | |
| Oregon St (7-2) | 6 | -27 | 13 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 28 | 21 | 53 | |
| Oregon (7-2) | -34 | 27 | -10 | 10 | 34 | 7 | 7 | 34 | 49 | |
| California (6-3) | -14 | -13 | 10 | -15 | 10 | 21 | 21 | 41 | 63 | |
| Arizona (5-4) | -7 | -2 | -10 | 15 | 21 | -1 | 21 | 34 | 31 | |
| Arizona St (4-5) | -28 | -2 | -34 | -10 | -21 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 31 | |
| Stanford (4-5) | -22 | 8 | -7 | -21 | 1 | -24 | -3 | 7 | 58 | |
| UCLA (3-6) | -21 | -28 | -7 | -21 | -21 | -25 | 3 | 20 | 25 | |
| Washington St (1-8) | -56 | -21 | -34 | -41 | -34 | -20 | -7 | -20 | 3 | |
| Washington (0-9) | -69 | -53 | -49 | -63 | -31 | -31 | -58 | -25 | -3 |
The upsets weren't too big in the Pac10 except for one - 4-5 Stanford over 7-2 Oregon State. Moreso than the big loss to Oregon, this is the one the Beavers should be kicking themselves over. A ton of big spreads in the Pac10 too - very few games were competitive, mainly because of the Washington schools.
| Big10 2008 - 13.2% upsets | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Penn St | Ohio St | Mich St | NWestern | Iowa | Minn | Wisc | Ill | Purdue | Michigan | Indiana |
| Penn State (7-1) | 7 | 31 | -1 | 41 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 27 | |||
| Ohio State (7-1) | -7 | 38 | 35 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 35 | |||
| Michigan St (6-2) | -31 | -38 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 13 | |||
| Northwestern (5-3) | -35 | -17 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 22 | 7 | -2 | |||
| Iowa (5-3) | 1 | -3 | -5 | 55 | 22 | -3 | 5 | 36 | |||
| Minnesota (3-5) | -13 | -7 | -55 | -3 | 7 | 11 | -23 | 9 | |||
| Wisconsin (3-5) | -41 | -3 | -1 | -22 | 3 | 10 | -2 | 35 | |||
| Illinois (3-5) | -14 | -10 | -17 | 3 | -7 | -10 | 25 | 42 | |||
| Purdue (2-6) | -14 | -13 | -14 | -22 | -5 | -11 | 6 | 52 | |||
| Michigan (2-6) | -29 | -35 | -14 | -7 | 23 | 2 | -25 | -6 | |||
| Indiana (1-7) | -27 | -13 | 2 | -36 | -9 | -35 | -42 | -52 |
Penn State's big loss to Iowa show up bright here, as does 5-3 Northwestern's loss to 1-7 Indiana. If the big three (the Nittany Lions, the Buckeyes, and the Spartans don't do well in their bowl games against the Pac10, Big12, and SEC, people are gonna think even less of the conference (if that's possible).
| BigEast 2008 - 12.5% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Cincy | Rutgers | Pitt | West VA | UConn | USF | L'vlle | Syracuse |
| Cincinnati (6-1) | 3 | 7 | 3 | -24 | 14 | 8 | 20 | |
| Rutgers (5-2) | -3 | 20 | -7 | 2 | 33 | 49 | 18 | |
| Pittsburgh (5-2) | -7 | -20 | 4 | 24 | 5 | 34 | 10 | |
| West Virginia (5-2) | -3 | 7 | -4 | 22 | 6 | 14 | 11 | |
| Connecticut (3-4) | 24 | -2 | -24 | -22 | -4 | 5 | 25 | |
| Soiuth Florida (2-5) | -14 | -33 | -5 | -6 | 4 | -4 | 32 | |
| Louisville (1-6) | -8 | -49 | -34 | -14 | -5 | 4 | -7 | |
| Syracuse (1-6) | -20 | -18 | -10 | -11 | -25 | -32 | 7 |
After having a hugely balanced conference last year, the BigEast is back to normal. Only three real upsets this year, and none of them really mattered in the big scheme of things.
| MAC 2008 - 10.6% upsets | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Ball St | C Mich | W Mich | Buffalo | N Ill | BG | Temple | Ohio | Akron | Kent | Toledo | E Mich | Miami |
| Ball St (8-0) | 7 | 23 | 31 | 17 | 21 | 31 | 22 | 15 | |||||
| C Michigan (6-2) | -7 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 1 | -4 | |||||
| W Michigan (6-2) | -23 | -10 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 10 | 21 | |||||
| Buffalo (5-3) | -2 | -6 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 3 | -3 | 20 | |||||
| N Illinois (5-3) | -31 | -3 | -3 | 3 | 28 | 31 | 37 | 4 | |||||
| Bowling Green (4-4) | -6 | -3 | 25 | 4 | 15 | 28 | -3 | -7 | |||||
| Temple (4-4) | -10 | -4 | -2 | 4 | 21 | -3 | 3 | 18 | |||||
| Ohio (3-5) | -3 | -21 | -13 | -25 | -4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | |||||
| Akron (3-5) | -17 | -3 | -4 | -21 | -7 | 3 | 17 | 7 | |||||
| Kent St (3-5) | -21 | 3 | -28 | -15 | 3 | -7 | -3 | 33 | |||||
| Toledo (2-6) | -31 | -1 | -10 | -31 | -28 | -17 | 24 | 28 | |||||
| E Michigan (2-6) | -22 | 4 | -21 | -37 | 3 | -3 | -7 | -24 | |||||
| Miami (OH) (1-7) | -15 | -20 | -4 | 7 | -18 | -15 | -33 | -28 |
Bowling Green lost a few big ones, and 6-2 Central Michigan lost to 2-6 Eastern Michigan. That's about it in the MAC though. The conference was way skewed towards the West division this year. But while the top three (maybe four) teams all came from the West, but the top team in the East, Buffalo, walked away with the championship.
| WAC 2008 - 9.7% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Boise St | Hawaii | Nevada | LA Tech | Fresno St | San J St | Utah St | Idaho | N Mex St |
| Boise St (8-0) | 20 | 7 | 35 | 51 | 17 | 35 | 35 | 49 | |
| Hawaii (5-3) | -20 | 7 | 10 | 3 | -3 | -16 | 32 | 12 | |
| Nevada (5-3) | -7 | -7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 24 | 35 | -3 | |
| LA Tech (5-3) | -35 | -10 | -4 | 3 | 21 | 7 | 32 | 4 | |
| Fresno St (4-4) | -51 | -3 | -13 | -3 | 14 | 2 | 13 | 7 | |
| San Jose St (4-4) | -17 | 3 | -14 | -21 | -14 | 23 | 6 | 17 | |
| Utah St (3-5) | -35 | 16 | -24 | -7 | -2 | -23 | 25 | 45 | |
| Idaho (1-7) | -35 | -32 | -35 | -32 | -13 | -6 | -25 | 6 | |
| New Mexico St (1-7) | -49 | -12 | 3 | -4 | -7 | -17 | -45 | -6 | |
Except for Boise State at the top and Idaho and New Mexico State at the bottom, the WAC seemed pretty balanced this year. But they weren't - only three statistical upsets all year.
| MtnWest 2008 - 2.9% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Utah | TCU | BYU | Air Force | CO St | UNLV | New Mex | Wyoming | San D St |
| Utah(8-0) | 3 | 24 | 7 | 33 | 21 | 3 | 33 | 49 | |
| TCU (7-1) | -3 | 25 | 34 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 47 | 34 | |
| BYU (6-2) | -24 | -25 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 44 | 29 | |
| Air Force (5-3) | -7 | -34 | -14 | 21 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 25 | |
| Colorado St (4-4) | -33 | -6 | -3 | -21 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 4 | |
| UNLV (2-6) | -21 | -30 | -7 | -1 | -13 | 7 | 8 | -21 | |
| New Mexico (2-6) | -3 | -23 | -18 | -13 | -14 | -7 | 24 | 63 | |
| Wyoming (1-7) | -33 | -47 | -44 | -20 | -11 | -8 | -24 | 25 | |
| San Diego St (1-7) | -49 | -34 | -29 | -25 | -4 | 21 | -63 | -25 | |
Everything fell into place in the MtnWest this year - if not for 2-6 UNLV's loss to 1-7 San Diego State, they would've been perfectly unbalanced this year.
| Big12 2008 - 2.9% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Okla | Texas | TX Tech | OK St | Missou | Neb | Kansas | Colorado | KS St | TX A&M | Baylor | Iowa St |
| Oklahoma (7-1) | -10 | 44 | 20 | 34 | 14 | 23 | 38 | 32 | ||||
| Texas (7-1) | 10 | -6 | 4 | 25 | 28 | 24 | 40 | 44 | ||||
| Texas Tech (7-1) | -44 | 6 | 36 | 6 | 42 | 30 | 18 | 7 | ||||
| Oklahoma St (5-3) | -20 | -4 | -36 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 28 | 42 | ||||
| Missouri (5-3) | -25 | -5 | 35 | -3 | 58 | 17 | 3 | 32 | ||||
| Nebraska (5-3) | -34 | -6 | -35 | 10 | 9 | 28 | 12 | 28 | ||||
| Kansas (4-4) | -14 | -28 | -42 | 3 | -10 | 16 | 31 | 2 | ||||
| Colorado (2-6) | -24 | -13 | -58 | -9 | -16 | 1 | 7 | 4 | ||||
| Kansas St (2-6) | -23 | -30 | -17 | -28 | -31 | -1 | 14 | 8 | ||||
| Texas A&M (2-6) | -38 | -40 | -18 | -28 | 7 | -14 | -20 | 14 | ||||
| Baylor (2-6) | -32 | -44 | -7 | -28 | -3 | -12 | 20 | 28 | ||||
| Iowa St (0-8) | -42 | -32 | -28 | -2 | -4 | -8 | -14 | -28 |
I know everybody is claiming that the Big12 is the best conference this year, and I know that Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech go a long way towards backing that position up, but there's no doubt that the bottom of the conference was pretty bad. I'm fine with recognizing the top three's great seasons, but I think we need to realize what else the rest of the conference has done (or hasn't) before we let that praise trickle down.
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