Magical Yellow Flags: a Look at Penalties
If you're a regular visitor to this site, you probably could've seen this one coming.
But it's not going to go where you think it's going to.
We're simply going to be looking at the raw, inarguable stats - penalties that were called and penalty yards per game for the last nine seasons. Not how many penalties were called that shouldn't have been, not how many penalties the refs missed, not how much your team got screwed. As usual, we've gotta set the stage. Here's the first set of numbers:
| General Penalty Numbers/Yards by Year | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Games | # pen. | avg (ptpg) | stdD | # yds | avg (ptpg) | stdD | pen diff | yd diff | Team A pen | Team B pen | Team A yds | Team B yds |
| 2000 | 696 | 9,916 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 84,189 | 60.5 | 28.9 | 3.1 | 26.0 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 45.8 | 75.1 |
| 2001 | 709 | 10,045 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 84,483 | 59.6 | 28.3 | 3.2 | 25.9 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 45.0 | 74.1 |
| 2002 | 772 | 10,529 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 89,162 | 57.7 | 28.4 | 3.0 | 24.7 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 43.5 | 72.0 |
| 2003 | 771 | 10,473 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 88,755 | 57.6 | 28.7 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 43.4 | 71.7 |
| 2004 | 707 | 9,369 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 78,668 | 55.6 | 27.4 | 3.0 | 24.5 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 41.7 | 69.6 |
| 2005 | 718 | 9,781 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 82,831 | 57.7 | 27.9 | 3.1 | 26.7 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 42.8 | 72.6 |
| 2006 | 792 | 9,219 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 77,396 | 48.9 | 24.8 | 2.8 | 22.8 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 35.9 | 61.9 |
| 2007 | 792 | 10,151 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 86,244 | 54.4 | 26.5 | 2.8 | 21.7 | 5.0 | 7.8 | 41.8 | 67.1 |
| 2008 | 804 | 9,456 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 81,613 | 50.8 | 25.4 | 2.8 | 23.9 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 37.5 | 64.1 |
So here's what we're looking at. "ptpg" refers to "per team per game", so we see that in an average game over the last nine seasons, each team has taken around 6 or 7 penalties to the tune of 55 yards per game. But that's overall - in each game, there's a penalty & yard difference (columns 9 & 10) of around 3 penalties and 25 penalty yards per game. So the last four columns show the average split of penalties in each game: Team A, the team with fewer penalties, usually averages 5 for 43 yards, while Team B usually averages 8 for 68 yards. Make sense? The two "stdD" columns represent the standard deviation of penalties and penalty yards per year. Interestingly, both the average number of penalties and penalty yards per game has been decreasing this decade, as have the standard deviations of each. That means that the averages for each individual game have been getting closer and closer to the season averages. (Click here for the Wikipedia rundown on how standard deviation works, if you need a refresher.)
All that is fine and dandy but we've gotta dig deeper and find individual outliers, or instances of a team having significantly more or less penalties/yards in an individual game. Why is that particular stat important? Well, mainly because we have to compare each team to itself. If we find an instance of a team taking 16 penalties for 135 yards, and compare it to the averages, it doesn't help because maybe that team averaged 14 penalties for 115 yards per game. So we're going to be computing each individual team's numbers and seeing what jumps out. To do all that we're going to find the numbers, averages, and standard deviations for each of the almost 1,200 team seasons this decade.
| Team Penalties-Penalty Yards by year | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | Totals |
| Boston Coll | 7.1-54.3 | 6.6-57.6 | 6.2-54.5 | 8.1-60.5 | 7.3-58.3 | 6.8-54.8 | 6.0-43.5 | 6.9-61.4 | 4.3-36.7 | 6.5-53.3 |
| Clemson | 8.7-78.3 | 8.5-72.0 | 6.2-59.2 | 6.4-56.5 | 5.3-45.2 | 4.8-40.5 | 4.2-36.2 | 5.2-43.1 | 5.5-47.5 | 6.1-53.0 |
| Duke | 9.5-74.3 | 6.6-53.1 | 5.4-44.3 | 6.0-44.6 | 5.3-38.2 | 7.4-63.7 | 6.0-47.0 | 6.1-52.9 | 4.7-43.8 | 6.3-51.1 |
| Florida St | 9.8-89.6 | 8.1-65.8 | 7.8-66.8 | 7.0-64.2 | 9.7-86.2 | 8.8-78.3 | 6.8-53.6 | 8.3-66.9 | 7.8-72.1 | 8.2-71.4 |
| Georgia Tech | 8.2-67.8 | 6.8-57.5 | 7.3-60.9 | 5.2-44.3 | 6.3-53.3 | 7.3-57.2 | 6.1-50.9 | 6.9-59.3 | 4.8-43.8 | 6.5-54.9 |
| Maryland | 6.0-47.0 | 6.6-56.8 | 6.0-55.3 | 6.3-53.6 | 6.2-49.8 | 5.1-44.1 | 4.3-37.2 | 5.6-45.3 | 4.7-41.2 | 5.6-47.8 |
| Miami (FL) | 9.0-88.4 | 10.1-85.8 | 9.5-81.2 | 9.5-79.0 | 7.9-61.3 | 7.3-70.1 | 6.8-61.9 | 6.5-51.8 | 5.7-46.5 | 8.0-69.5 |
| N Carolina | 5.9-50.3 | 8.2-65.1 | 7.9-66.0 | 5.7-48.7 | 5.4-42.8 | 8.0-66.9 | 6.1-52.8 | 6.9-55.7 | 4.8-42.3 | 6.5-54.4 |
| NC State | 8.7-75.8 | 7.2-61.3 | 7.2-62.9 | 7.7-69.8 | 9.2-70.8 | 7.6-61.9 | 7.2-58.0 | 6.6-54.5 | 5.5-42.3 | 7.4-61.8 |
| Virginia | 6.4-52.8 | 7.5-69.3 | 4.6-34.6 | 5.0-42.8 | 5.6-50.0 | 5.5-47.3 | 4.5-32.6 | 4.8-40.9 | 4.9-42.4 | 5.4-45.6 |
| Virginia Tech | 6.0-52.8 | 6.7-64.1 | 6.3-53.1 | 6.3-54.8 | 7.7-63.9 | 6.2-53.6 | 5.9-51.1 | 6.6-55.6 | 5.0-34.7 | 6.3-53.5 |
| Wake Forest | 6.0-49.9 | 6.7-58.6 | 5.9-52.6 | 5.1-43.7 | 6.1-58.7 | 6.4-62.1 | 4.8-44.2 | 5.2-47.8 | 4.7-48.2 | 5.6-51.3 |
| Illinois | 4.1-36.4 | 5.5-55.8 | 4.9-45.8 | 5.1-39.8 | 3.8-32.8 | 6.3-50.6 | 4.9-38.3 | 4.9-48.9 | 5.5-51.0 | 5.0-44.5 |
| Indiana | 6.5-55.6 | 7.0-57.1 | 4.8-47.1 | 5.1-42.3 | 6.7-50.0 | 6.7-55.0 | 4.9-42.1 | 5.8-54.5 | 5.3-49.3 | 5.8-50.2 |
| Iowa | 6.5-54.3 | 6.5-49.6 | 7.9-66.0 | 6.2-49.5 | 7.6-56.3 | 4.3-37.3 | 5.0-44.7 | 5.6-50.9 | 4.1-34.3 | 6.0-49.2 |
| Michigan | 5.3-46.3 | 5.4-40.3 | 5.0-38.3 | 4.9-39.8 | 5.2-45.6 | 4.0-31.8 | 4.8-43.8 | 5.1-44.6 | 4.8-41.7 | 4.9-41.4 |
| Michigan St | 6.8-62.6 | 7.7-62.3 | 6.7-62.4 | 9.5-81.5 | 6.3-54.0 | 6.2-48.5 | 6.8-56.0 | 5.0-48.4 | 5.1-46.2 | 6.7-58.0 |
| Minnesota | 7.7-67.2 | 6.1-46.5 | 5.8-44.4 | 5.8-50.6 | 5.4-38.9 | 5.3-50.6 | 5.2-43.8 | 5.6-41.8 | 6.4-53.5 | 5.9-48.6 |
| Northwestern | 9.3-87.7 | 7.5-67.3 | 7.3-65.3 | 6.0-45.6 | 6.6-57.4 | 6.2-48.5 | 3.3-28.0 | 4.9-46.9 | 4.7-43.6 | 6.2-54.2 |
| Ohio St | 8.2-73.5 | 5.9-48.0 | 5.4-40.8 | 7.2-61.5 | 5.9-44.8 | 5.4-48.2 | 4.8-43.4 | 5.5-44.2 | 5.2-43.6 | 5.9-49.5 |
| Penn St | 5.8-45.1 | 4.9-38.5 | 4.9-42.0 | 3.3-23.2 | 5.6-46.1 | 4.8-35.2 | 4.5-33.6 | 4.5-34.3 | 3.8-31.4 | 4.6-36.4 |
| Purdue | 5.9-45.5 | 7.8-63.4 | 5.6-46.0 | 6.5-53.6 | 5.9-52.3 | 6.6-52.6 | 5.3-39.1 | 5.9-48.3 | 5.0-40.3 | 6.0-48.8 |
| Wisconsin | 6.0-55.6 | 5.3-41.7 | 5.8-45.3 | 5.1-37.9 | 4.8-36.9 | 5.5-47.2 | 4.7-37.3 | 5.6-43.9 | 5.3-47.4 | 5.3-43.8 |
| Baylor | 6.4-56.1 | 6.6-54.0 | 9.2-75.5 | 7.8-64.8 | 6.3-48.3 | 8.1-69.6 | 6.4-56.5 | 5.8-44.3 | 6.7-54.7 | 7.0-58.2 |
| Colorado | 7.9-61.8 | 8.1-68.7 | 6.8-59.5 | 7.0-56.4 | 8.0-60.7 | 9.5-83.4 | 5.3-46.6 | 6.8-55.8 | 5.4-43.0 | 7.2-59.8 |
| Iowa St | 6.8-62.7 | 5.9-49.9 | 5.1-40.8 | 5.7-49.3 | 6.0-49.4 | 5.3-47.3 | 4.7-35.8 | 4.7-42.4 | 6.4-57.4 | 5.6-48.2 |
| Kansas | 6.8-59.0 | 7.0-63.5 | 5.1-43.8 | 6.5-51.2 | 8.0-63.5 | 7.3-65.9 | 5.6-46.2 | 4.1-39.1 | 4.8-44.3 | 6.1-52.5 |
| Kansas St | 8.2-69.6 | 8.3-63.3 | 7.7-58.4 | 6.5-48.4 | 6.3-45.3 | 8.7-75.2 | 6.8-57.5 | 8.2-75.3 | 5.6-45.8 | 7.4-59.7 |
| Missouri | 6.9-57.1 | 5.1-40.4 | 6.8-53.1 | 5.4-46.9 | 4.3-35.4 | 7.2-67.1 | 4.5-36.9 | 5.4-46.3 | 4.1-37.4 | 5.5-46.5 |
| Nebraska | 6.3-57.4 | 5.6-53.8 | 6.1-56.0 | 6.8-54.6 | 6.8-51.0 | 7.4-57.8 | 5.3-43.9 | 6.4-49.1 | 7.2-61.5 | 6.4-53.9 |
| Oklahoma | 7.4-63.8 | 7.6-66.2 | 5.5-44.1 | 6.1-48.1 | 6.5-56.4 | 8.5-71.7 | 4.9-37.2 | 6.9-57.5 | 7.3-64.6 | 6.7-56.2 |
| Oklahoma St | 7.9-66.1 | 7.0-50.7 | 8.9-71.6 | 6.8-62.5 | 4.4-35.4 | 7.5-57.5 | 5.7-47.2 | 7.2-66.6 | 6.5-54.3 | 6.9-57.0 |
| Texas | 7.9-70.0 | 5.2-45.0 | 7.2-61.5 | 7.7-63.2 | 7.7-59.3 | 7.6-65.5 | 5.5-50.8 | 6.2-55.4 | 6.4-56.8 | 6.8-58.5 |
| Texas A&M | 6.6-58.3 | 5.9-49.2 | 7.0-54.5 | 6.7-53.7 | 8.3-71.3 | 7.0-54.3 | 5.9-47.9 | 6.2-47.2 | 7.3-56.8 | 6.8-54.7 |
| Texas Tech | 9.0-72.5 | 6.8-59.1 | 6.4-51.0 | 7.8-74.1 | 9.2-75.0 | 9.4-83.4 | 7.4-64.9 | 7.9-71.8 | 7.3-60.2 | 7.9-67.7 |
| Cincinnati | 7.8-64.4 | 6.6-58.8 | 7.3-62.8 | 6.4-55.7 | 6.4-50.2 | 6.2-52.4 | 6.8-58.1 | 9.4-79.1 | 7.1-64.5 | 7.1-61.0 |
| Connecticut | 7.6-62.4 | 6.8-59.1 | 6.3-49.9 | 6.0-49.5 | 5.6-52.1 | 6.2-47.2 | 5.4-42.6 | 6.1-45.7 | 5.1-43.9 | 6.1-50.0 |
| Louisville | 11.2-97.8 | 8.7-74.5 | 10.3-91.7 | 7.5-61.0 | 5.6-51.9 | 7.7-68.0 | 5.0-44.8 | 7.8-68.2 | 6.3-56.8 | 7.8-68.3 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.8-61.4 | 6.8-68.0 | 5.9-56.0 | 5.3-40.2 | 5.8-46.7 | 6.3-53.9 | 5.7-43.9 | 7.3-63.5 | 4.4-33.8 | 6.0-51.7 |
| Rutgers | 6.4-55.4 | 9.8-72.9 | 8.9-67.5 | 6.8-53.4 | 7.0-54.5 | 7.2-60.9 | 4.6-37.5 | 7.2-59.6 | 4.5-38.8 | 6.9-55.2 |
| S Florida | - | 10.0-84.3 | 11.6-97.8 | 9.4-83.0 | 9.5-80.9 | 8.8-69.3 | 8.0-70.5 | 8.6-72.1 | 8.5-67.8 | 9.2-77.7 |
| Syracuse | 7.5-61.1 | 8.2-64.7 | 5.8-46.8 | 6.6-55.2 | 7.3-63.7 | 6.1-50.2 | 5.9-46.8 | 7.1-58.9 | 4.5-38.3 | 6.6-54.0 |
| West Virginia | 6.4-53.6 | 7.5-71.4 | 7.1-64.5 | 8.0-71.1 | 8.9-84.0 | 6.8-58.1 | 6.8-66.7 | 5.5-52.8 | 4.5-41.2 | 6.8-62.3 |
| E Carolina | 5.0-48.3 | 6.4-50.4 | 4.7-37.2 | 6.3-51.2 | 5.1-39.7 | 5.5-46.3 | 4.5-39.3 | 8.0-63.6 | 5.9-53.0 | 5.7-47.9 |
| Houston | 8.5-74.6 | 8.4-67.7 | 6.4-56.3 | 8.5-72.5 | 7.7-60.5 | 7.8-69.2 | 6.8-58.1 | 7.8-67.7 | 6.3-58.2 | 7.5-64.8 |
| Marshall | 6.9-59.0 | 7.8-68.0 | 9.0-74.5 | 6.3-58.0 | 6.4-56.4 | 5.3-38.7 | 6.6-55.7 | 6.9-57.9 | 5.3-45.3 | 6.8-57.5 |
| Memphis | 7.7-62.7 | 6.7-53.5 | 5.8-46.4 | 6.2-49.5 | 6.4-52.7 | 7.4-60.3 | 4.3-37.3 | 6.6-54.8 | 4.5-39.9 | 6.2-50.6 |
| Rice | 6.5-56.6 | 5.7-41.4 | 5.5-44.5 | 5.3-45.3 | 5.6-49.6 | 4.9-44.2 | 5.8-42.8 | 5.6-43.7 | 4.9-42.5 | 5.5-45.5 |
| SMU | 7.3-60.9 | 7.0-56.0 | 5.5-52.1 | 7.3-58.2 | 7.0-61.1 | 6.9-60.8 | 6.5-53.5 | 7.7-69.4 | 6.2-48.8 | 6.8-57.8 |
| Sou. Miss | 6.5-50.9 | 6.9-52.6 | 7.4-56.6 | 5.7-45.8 | 6.9-59.4 | 6.2-51.3 | 5.4-42.1 | 5.5-53.8 | 7.6-74.8 | 6.4-54.1 |
| Tulane | 9.2-86.7 | 4.9-39.2 | 6.8-61.7 | 5.5-51.0 | 5.6-50.7 | 5.4-48.4 | 6.0-47.8 | 6.0-54.5 | 6.0-52.5 | 6.2-54.6 |
| Tulsa | 5.5-42.4 | 5.6-48.2 | 6.5-48.9 | 6.6-64.1 | 6.3-56.1 | 5.8-47.7 | 5.1-44.0 | 6.1-56.2 | 4.4-37.0 | 5.8-49.4 |
| UAB | 8.5-73.5 | 8.3-61.9 | 8.3-65.8 | 6.4-52.4 | 6.6-51.6 | 6.8-58.1 | 7.8-58.5 | 6.3-50.9 | 6.9-65.3 | 7.3-59.6 |
| UCF | 8.8-72.5 | 10.0-81.1 | 8.0-64.3 | 8.7-72.3 | 5.5-48.0 | 7.5-63.3 | 4.6-40.3 | 5.3-47.5 | 5.7-52.3 | 7.0-59.8 |
| UTEP | 7.3-59.6 | 8.0-61.5 | 6.6-53.7 | 8.4-66.5 | 6.2-52.6 | 7.0-64.1 | 6.1-54.3 | 7.2-66.4 | 6.1-57.3 | 7.0-59.6 |
| Army | 5.5-38.0 | 5.3-44.5 | 6.3-58.7 | 5.1-45.8 | 5.1-44.1 | 6.2-45.6 | 4.3-37.3 | 4.0-31.3 | 3.8-36.4 | 5.0-42.4 |
| Navy | 7.4-54.1 | 3.9-34.1 | 4.3-31.8 | 4.5-37.2 | 4.2-35.8 | 4.3-33.8 | 4.0-33.7 | 4.0-29.8 | 3.2-26.8 | 4.4-35.0 |
| Notre Dame | 6.4-55.6 | 6.7-56.9 | 6.1-53.5 | 6.3-51.0 | 5.6-45.7 | 6.4-55.6 | 6.7-53.5 | 6.5-57.8 | 5.4-49.9 | 6.2-53.2 |
| Akron | 7.3-70.4 | 5.3-43.3 | 7.4-67.4 | 6.3-56.6 | 5.5-47.1 | 7.4-62.8 | 9.3-74.0 | 7.0-52.9 | 5.5-46.5 | 6.8-58.0 |
| Ball St | 5.5-48.1 | 4.7-42.1 | 5.1-40.7 | 5.8-48.1 | 5.8-44.6 | 6.6-59.0 | 5.0-45.7 | 5.8-55.6 | 2.8-26.7 | 5.2-45.3 |
| Bowl Green | 5.2-47.8 | 5.9-54.0 | 6.3-56.8 | 5.8-46.2 | 6.8-54.4 | 5.5-47.8 | 5.5-48.2 | 6.5-56.2 | 6.3-53.4 | 6.0-51.6 |
| Buffalo | 6.0-50.5 | 6.2-42.5 | 6.1-53.3 | 6.1-50.3 | 6.2-49.5 | 6.9-62.6 | 5.8-46.3 | 6.4-56.4 | 4.7-44.9 | 6.0-50.6 |
| C Michigan | 4.9-37.6 | 6.6-54.8 | 4.8-38.9 | 5.3-50.9 | 7.7-65.7 | 8.4-77.9 | 5.9-50.2 | 5.9-59.6 | 5.8-56.6 | 6.1-54.6 |
| E Michigan | 5.9-50.1 | 6.5-55.5 | 5.4-41.1 | 4.3-36.0 | 7.3-67.2 | 5.7-51.8 | 7.3-59.1 | 6.3-50.3 | 5.4-50.0 | 6.0-51.0 |
| Kent St | 8.0-57.2 | 6.3-57.4 | 7.0-58.9 | 6.2-58.9 | 7.0-61.6 | 6.8-56.7 | 6.8-58.0 | 6.0-55.3 | 5.2-39.6 | 6.6-55.9 |
| Miami (OH) | 6.6-59.1 | 7.5-65.2 | 5.6-50.8 | 6.7-59.0 | 6.3-51.5 | 6.3-57.1 | 5.8-54.7 | 5.5-47.1 | 5.3-42.1 | 6.2-54.0 |
| N Illinois | 5.8-52.9 | 5.9-52.8 | 5.2-50.5 | 5.6-51.3 | 5.6-50.4 | 6.2-58.8 | 4.8-40.1 | 5.1-46.6 | 4.8-43.8 | 5.4-49.5 |
| Ohio | 5.9-48.7 | 5.5-48.7 | 4.4-41.8 | 5.8-46.8 | 6.8-56.8 | 7.5-62.5 | 6.6-57.4 | 8.1-70.5 | 6.6-59.0 | 6.4-54.8 |
| Temple | 7.7-58.7 | 9.1-71.2 | 8.3-70.6 | 8.4-67.9 | 5.8-47.7 | 5.2-42.0 | 6.3-46.6 | 5.9-48.5 | 6.8-55.3 | 7.1-56.6 |
| Toledo | 4.5-41.8 | 8.6-82.0 | 6.8-59.3 | 6.1-56.2 | 5.5-50.5 | 7.5-67.4 | 6.9-66.8 | 7.2-64.0 | 6.3-49.5 | 6.6-59.8 |
| W Michigan | 5.7-49.6 | 7.2-56.4 | 7.2-56.9 | 6.9-55.4 | 8.0-65.4 | 7.6-62.8 | 6.5-55.7 | 7.9-65.4 | 6.2-47.4 | 7.0-57.0 |
| Air Force | 5.3-41.2 | 4.7-38.6 | 4.2-33.9 | 4.2-32.8 | 5.2-45.4 | 4.9-45.9 | 3.9-34.0 | 4.8-44.2 | 5.6-46.3 | 4.8-40.2 |
| BYU | 6.9-63.1 | 6.9-62.0 | 8.3-64.9 | 7.3-63.8 | 7.5-63.8 | 8.3-72.5 | 7.2-59.2 | 7.0-60.2 | 7.8-70.2 | 7.5-64.3 |
| Colorado St | 3.8-32.9 | 5.3-43.1 | 3.7-34.5 | 4.8-41.0 | 4.4-35.0 | 6.1-50.0 | 4.8-38.9 | 5.3-43.4 | 4.6-42.1 | 4.7-40.1 |
| New Mexico | 6.1-49.4 | 6.5-56.7 | 7.2-61.1 | 6.9-60.2 | 7.8-61.8 | 7.4-56.2 | 5.0-41.8 | 6.6-52.9 | 6.8-57.8 | 6.7-55.3 |
| San Diego St | 5.3-44.3 | 5.5-51.8 | 6.3-52.7 | 6.8-61.4 | 8.1-74.3 | 6.0-47.2 | 5.9-51.7 | 6.0-50.3 | 6.1-51.0 | 6.2-53.7 |
| TCU | 8.3-75.3 | 10.3-85.8 | 7.9-67.4 | 8.1-72.2 | 8.8-82.5 | 8.7-79.6 | 7.2-60.6 | 6.6-57.9 | 8.8-76.9 | 8.3-72.8 |
| UNLV | 6.7-61.4 | 6.6-58.5 | 7.8-65.5 | 8.2-66.8 | 9.0-71.7 | 8.3-60.9 | 6.1-57.1 | 7.2-61.2 | 5.5-43.0 | 7.2-60.6 |
| Utah | 6.5-63.4 | 6.7-57.5 | 7.4-68.2 | 7.5-64.4 | 7.3-63.8 | 7.7-63.5 | 6.2-57.2 | 6.3-58.6 | 6.9-62.8 | 6.9-62.0 |
| Wyoming | 5.3-41.0 | 5.0-41.7 | 4.2-33.8 | 5.8-47.0 | 6.9-60.3 | 5.9-54.5 | 5.7-45.8 | 6.1-53.2 | 5.8-51.8 | 5.6-47.7 |
| Arizona | 8.2-68.2 | 7.2-64.4 | 7.3-58.8 | 7.0-64.0 | 5.1-42.9 | 6.6-52.8 | 5.8-48.2 | 6.2-53.0 | 4.1-35.2 | 6.3-53.9 |
| Arizona St | 7.8-62.8 | 7.2-66.1 | 8.1-75.3 | 7.9-71.1 | 7.4-68.6 | 9.5-81.8 | 7.9-64.2 | 6.2-56.8 | 7.8-66.8 | 7.8-68.2 |
| California | 8.8-69.2 | 9.0-82.5 | 7.6-69.7 | 5.8-46.5 | 5.9-56.1 | 5.8-51.7 | 5.5-47.7 | 7.2-62.2 | 5.9-49.9 | 6.7-58.8 |
| Oregon | 7.8-70.2 | 6.5-59.3 | 8.5-71.2 | 7.8-69.7 | 8.6-79.7 | 8.0-72.3 | 7.5-60.0 | 6.1-55.0 | 7.1-62.1 | 7.5-66.4 |
| Oregon St | 9.6-88.8 | 8.4-71.1 | 9.7-100.2 | 11.2-110.2 | 8.6-78.8 | 8.9-78.9 | 6.3-59.8 | 6.6-58.2 | 6.7-56.8 | 8.4-77.9 |
| Stanford | 5.8-42.8 | 5.3-40.3 | 8.0-64.4 | 7.9-69.2 | 6.1-51.6 | 5.1-40.3 | 5.0-35.7 | 5.3-50.3 | 6.9-61.9 | 6.1-50.6 |
| UCLA | 7.1-62.9 | 6.7-59.6 | 6.0-58.2 | 8.4-75.1 | 5.4-43.4 | 6.3-52.0 | 6.4-60.1 | 7.3-62.1 | 6.6-56.5 | 6.7-59.0 |
| USC | 9.4-81.4 | 7.0-60.2 | 7.0-58.5 | 5.3-48.8 | 5.6-46.2 | 7.2-63.6 | 6.2-50.2 | 8.2-74.4 | 7.9-72.9 | 7.1-61.6 |
| Wash St | 7.4-63.6 | 8.3-67.6 | 6.1-52.8 | 7.7-62.3 | 6.9-56.8 | 6.2-50.5 | 5.0-42.3 | 6.2-47.2 | 4.7-39.8 | 6.5-53.6 |
| Washington | 10.5-84.4 | 8.0-70.3 | 7.9-67.1 | 11.5-94.6 | 7.0-65.7 | 6.7-63.5 | 5.4-47.3 | 6.1-51.4 | 7.2-69.4 | 7.8-68.4 |
| Alabama | 7.5-57.8 | 7.9-63.1 | 9.3-78.8 | 6.1-50.4 | 5.8-51.2 | 6.2-46.8 | 6.0-42.8 | 4.5-34.8 | 4.1-37.1 | 6.3-51.1 |
| Arkansas | 6.2-50.8 | 6.2-49.2 | 8.1-71.6 | 6.5-54.9 | 5.7-41.4 | 7.3-58.5 | 5.9-53.9 | 6.3-54.4 | 6.6-48.7 | 6.5-54.1 |
| Auburn | 6.8-54.6 | 7.3-63.5 | 8.3-58.0 | 5.7-50.2 | 6.2-52.8 | 5.6-44.8 | 5.5-45.8 | 6.2-47.6 | 6.2-47.3 | 6.4-51.6 |
| Florida | 7.8-59.3 | 8.9-63.7 | 7.0-54.8 | 7.4-59.3 | 8.8-70.3 | 8.5-65.3 | 8.3-63.4 | 8.2-61.9 | 7.3-59.9 | 8.0-61.9 |
| Georgia | 5.9-42.9 | 8.3-71.3 | 7.2-62.8 | 8.5-73.7 | 7.8-66.3 | 5.9-53.6 | 6.0-47.0 | 7.0-58.5 | 8.6-72.2 | 7.3-61.1 |
| Kentucky | 8.1-65.1 | 8.9-69.7 | 8.8-69.7 | 6.8-56.0 | 7.3-55.8 | 4.7-41.1 | 6.2-52.8 | 6.4-55.2 | 5.3-43.2 | 6.9-56.3 |
| LSU | 7.3-63.8 | 6.9-59.2 | 7.1-56.9 | 7.3-60.4 | 6.0-45.6 | 8.3-69.8 | 6.4-50.5 | 8.4-62.9 | 6.3-49.9 | 7.1-57.8 |
| Mississippi | 6.6-55.8 | 4.9-42.3 | 5.6-47.7 | 6.2-51.6 | 7.0-56.9 | 5.5-42.2 | 4.9-38.7 | 6.4-47.6 | 5.1-48.0 | 5.8-47.9 |
| MissSt | 9.9-83.4 | 9.5-89.7 | 7.1-61.2 | 8.8-72.4 | 5.9-48.0 | 6.4-55.7 | 5.5-51.9 | 5.9-52.3 | 5.7-44.3 | 7.2-61.9 |
| S Carolina | 6.1-52.4 | 6.7-49.4 | 6.3-56.4 | 5.5-45.3 | 6.1-44.5 | 6.0-46.5 | 6.6-52.2 | 5.8-44.3 | 5.8-49.2 | 6.1-49.0 |
| Tennessee | 6.2-51.3 | 6.8-57.3 | 7.3-58.5 | 7.2-68.0 | 6.5-56.3 | 7.9-60.9 | 4.9-37.7 | 5.3-45.8 | 5.5-44.9 | 6.4-53.3 |
| Vanderbilt | 6.4-54.9 | 6.9-54.8 | 6.1-47.3 | 4.8-39.4 | 4.8-40.4 | 4.2-30.9 | 4.0-33.3 | 4.9-39.9 | 4.3-36.4 | 5.1-41.7 |
| Arkansas St | 7.9-64.9 | 6.4-56.3 | 7.6-62.0 | 8.9-71.2 | 8.6-67.5 | 10.1-75.9 | 5.8-50.8 | 7.0-61.2 | 7.0-65.0 | 7.7-63.9 |
| Florida Atl | - | - | - | - | - | 8.3-67.0 | 5.8-52.7 | 6.5-51.8 | 7.4-70.4 | 7.4-63.8 |
| Florida Intl | - | - | - | - | - | 7.7-67.3 | 7.3-64.1 | 6.1-46.4 | 8.8-66.6 | 7.4-60.1 |
| LA-Lafayette | 8.1-67.4 | 8.5-65.7 | 5.8-47.5 | 6.9-59.8 | 5.5-42.5 | 6.5-56.6 | 5.8-46.1 | 7.0-52.5 | 7.1-57.8 | 6.8-55.0 |
| LA-Monroe | 6.5-54.3 | 6.9-57.5 | 9.7-75.9 | 8.0-63.4 | 8.3-79.8 | 8.5-67.4 | 7.1-53.6 | 8.3-67.9 | 6.8-59.8 | 7.8-64.4 |
| Mid Tenn St | 7.2-65.5 | 8.1-69.8 | 7.0-62.5 | 7.4-68.3 | 7.8-69.2 | 8.1-73.3 | 5.5-42.5 | 6.5-55.9 | 5.7-50.6 | 7.0-61.5 |
| North Texas | 5.6-46.8 | 7.9-70.3 | 8.1-71.0 | 8.8-86.9 | 7.7-69.2 | 8.2-74.3 | 6.3-51.6 | 8.3-66.1 | 6.6-54.9 | 7.5-66.0 |
| Troy | - | 6.9-61.9 | 5.4-47.4 | 6.8-55.3 | 6.3-49.8 | 6.5-56.0 | 6.1-57.7 | 7.2-58.1 | 6.8-57.8 | 6.5-55.5 |
| W Kentucky | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.3-51.3 | 5.9-53.4 |
| Boise St | 6.2-63.2 | 6.0-55.7 | 8.2-77.2 | 7.2-70.1 | 6.4-55.9 | 7.5-68.5 | 5.8-49.8 | 7.1-63.7 | 7.2-64.5 | 6.9-63.4 |
| Fresno St | 8.8-73.0 | 9.3-76.9 | 8.4-76.1 | 7.0-66.6 | 7.7-72.1 | 8.1-72.6 | 5.1-39.5 | 6.4-54.9 | 4.9-41.8 | 7.3-64.0 |
| Hawaii | 9.7-69.2 | 7.8-70.3 | 8.7-74.4 | 7.5-66.4 | 6.0-49.8 | 8.4-72.7 | 7.4-66.4 | 7.0-66.2 | 8.7-78.4 | 7.9-68.2 |
| Idaho | 7.1-62.0 | 9.4-81.5 | 6.6-61.9 | 7.0-58.3 | 7.2-67.5 | 8.6-77.6 | 7.3-76.8 | 6.8-63.5 | 6.4-61.4 | 7.4-67.7 |
| LA Tech | 7.4-62.8 | 7.8-67.8 | 7.1-62.3 | 7.5-57.7 | 7.1-59.1 | 6.3-52.3 | 5.2-47.1 | 7.8-66.8 | 6.1-52.5 | 6.9-58.6 |
| Nevada | 8.9-73.7 | 8.7-71.0 | 6.9-57.7 | 7.2-62.4 | 7.7-68.4 | 6.1-51.2 | 4.2-33.6 | 7.2-57.2 | 6.8-57.9 | 7.0-58.9 |
| New Mex St | 9.2-74.5 | 8.3-68.2 | 6.4-55.8 | 6.5-56.8 | 8.6-78.9 | 5.3-41.2 | 7.3-73.8 | 5.9-46.2 | 5.4-45.3 | 6.9-59.6 |
| San Jose St | 8.3-65.3 | 7.6-57.2 | 7.5-70.9 | 7.3-64.5 | 6.3-55.6 | 6.3-52.2 | 4.8-37.8 | 6.4-45.8 | 6.8-51.9 | 6.8-55.6 |
| Utah St | 7.0-66.7 | 8.6-81.3 | 8.5-77.6 | 9.6-74.9 | 7.1-63.8 | 6.3-61.6 | 5.4-47.1 | 6.1-54.0 | 7.3-66.8 | 7.3-65.8 |
So there's the numbers & averages. (No room for the standard deviations - sorry.) We'll define a significant outlier as any game in which a team's penalties are more than two standard deviations away from their average (meaning we're going to be looking at around the top 5% of penalty games that deviate from the norm). For instance, if Texas' penalties per game for a season are 4,4,19,4,2,3,9,5,5,4,4,3,6, that gives them an average of 5.5 penalties per game and a standard deviation of 4.4. That 19 penalty game is well outside 2 standard deviations from the average (5.5 + 4.4 + 4.4 = 14.3) and will be a good game to include in our group of outliers.
Excluding that 19-penalty game, Texas' average dropped down to 4.4 penalties per game and a standard deviation of 1.8, a significant drop for both. Just to make sure we don't miss any other potentially good outliers, we can perform the 2 standard deviation test again using these new numbers. If we do, we see that that game when they had 9 penalties is also more than 2 standard deviations away from the adjusted average (4.4 + 1.8 + 1.8 = 8.0), so it's probably a good one to look at too. Not as good as the 19-penalty game, but still good. (Incidentally, that Texas example was a real stat - those are the Longhorn's penalties per game in 2006. What's unique about that 19 penalty game is that it's the only instance since 1999 of a team's number of penalties being more than 3 standard deviations away from it's average.)
Finding and grouping these outlier games will give us the chance to examine them more thoroughly to see what, if anything, they have in common. Why did Texas have 19 penalties in one game when they had under 10 the rest of the season? I don't think we'll be able to definitively say, but that's one of the questions we're going to be asking.
So let's look at what we've got so far. Again, we're looking at 2000-2008, which means 6,761 games. Two teams per game gives us 13,522 team-games, and if we're looking at just the most extreme cases of teams committing far more or far fewer penalties than they normally do, we end up with 725 team-games to look at. So again, we're dealing with the top 5% here. Another good thing is that we have every single D1-A team represented, averaging around 6 team-games each. Of those 725 games, 533 (nearly 75% of them) were instances in which a team was penalized more than their average, while just 172 of them were instances of a team penalized less than their average.
One of the first places we can look for signs of irregularities is in home-field advantage. We know there is one in general, (this year it's hovering at about 65%), but is there one with penalties? Just for clarity's sake, the 725 games we're focusing on we'll call the outliers, and the others we'll call the averages.
| Home / Away Penalties & Yards | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| category | games | avg penalties | avg pen yards | more penalties | more % |
| Home (averages) | 6,029 | 6.3 | 53.8 | 2,362 | 40.1% |
| Away (averages) | 6,059 | 6.6 | 54.6 | 2,855 | 48.5% |
| Home (outliers) | 356 | 9.3 | 87.9 | 243 | 49.2% |
| Away (outliers) | 326 | 9.9 | 85.7 | 238 | 48.2% |
Hmmm... it doesn't appear that there's any significant difference. The home team has a slight edge in the first few columns, but nothing irregular. Something notable is that in the average games, the home team usually takes less penalties, taking more than their visitor just 40.1% of the time. However, when we're looking at the outliers, the home team takes more penalties a higher percentage of the time, 49.2% to 48.2%. This could be due to the fact that in the average population there's more visiting team-games and in the outliers there's more home team-games, but the difference is pretty small. Overall, there doesn't seem to be much evidence here for the home team having a significant edge penalty-wise.
Let's look at something else. What about any advantage given to the higher-ranked team?
| Penalties & AP Rankings | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| category | All Games | Average Games | Outlier Games |
| neither team ranked | 5,596 | 5,286 | 310 |
| same # of penalties | 1,460 | 1,425 | 35 |
| higher ranked, more penalties | 3,372 | 3,157 | 215 |
| higher more % | 52.2% | 51.9% | 56.6% |
| higher ranked, less penalties | 3,088 | 2,923 | 165 |
| higher less % | 47.8% | 48.1% | 43.4% |
Well, if anything it seems that overall, the higher ranked team usually takes more penalties, and that's especially the case in the outliers. Interesting.
And that's where I'm going to stop.
Why? For a lot of different reasons. First, I'm sure you noticed that in a way, this exercise is much like trying to prove a negative. We're looking for evidence of irregularities in penalties & games, but not finding any evidence of them isn't going to convince people that bias doesn't exist. We're not going to be able to prove they're not there no matter what we do. The two categories I did look at, home-field advantage and higher-ranked advantage, are the two places where I think most people believe we would be likely to find irregularities, if there were any. We could try other categories into infinity and still not be able to prove a bias doesn't exist. In addition, not finding bias in any particular category doesn't mean that it can't or won't be found in individual games. On the other hand though, good luck proving it.
With all that said, I fully believe that there are no conspiracies afoot to call games certain ways for certain teams, that the refs are not biased, and that the fix is not in in any way whatsoever. Honestly, that's just a bunch of junk people make up to make themselves feel better about losing. Have the SEC referees botched some high-profile calls this past month? Sure. But you know who probably feels worse about it than anyone? Those SEC referees.
Think about this realistically for a second. You don't get to the level they're at without having a huge amount of respect for the game in general. No matter what school they went to or which team they personally root for, I guarantee that every college referee has more respect for the game that overrides those personal ties by far. Do you set out in the morning intentionally trying to be bad at what you do? Probably not, and you probably wouldn't get far if you did. I'm pretty firm in my belief that refs give 100% every game and try to be as impartial and fair as possible, partly because it doesn't make sense for them to be otherwise.
Do they get a call wrong every now and then? Sure. But a lot of those can easily be avoided with the use of instant replay. Sure, some calls are subjective, like holding or interference. The referees have training and years of experience calling those plays - as long as they're consistent, I see no reason not to trust them and defer to their judgment in those cases. For situations like the Georgia-LSU celebration penalties, I think the refs are handcuffed by overbearing rules that are trying to damper down the spirit of competition.
But for the non-subjective determinations, like going out-of-bounds or the ball hitting the ground on an attempted shoe-string catch, use instant replay. Get a donor to give your school money for some LCD high-def TV's, put them in the booth, and use them. Talk to the networks and make them put cameras in more strategic locations so that you can give the guys in the booth the best angles to see the plays - shoot them down the sidelines and endzones, if nothing else. The college game gets it right by reviewing every play. (The NFL knows that would lengthen their games past the mandated 3 hours, so fairness has to take a back seat.) Do whatever it takes to get the call right. I don't want to hear any crap about the refs being human or bad calls being a part of the game. For subjective calls, fine - I can accept that. But with so much riding on games nowadays, the NCAA, conferences, and schools need to be doing all they can to make sure that the black & white calls are correct. Fans won't care if it adds an extra 15 minutes to the games, or if a booth review takes a while. Just Get. The Call. Right. They'll care a whole lot more if you get the call wrong, trust me. Those are things that people besides the refs can fix, so if anything you should be just as pissed at them for letting these things slide.
So where do all of these numbers and all of this ranting leave us? Well, the idea has been bandied about that we need a national refereeing corps that aren't affiliated with any one conferences. Would that help? Well, it would certainly help with the (I believe incorrect) perception that the refs call the games for certain teams. Sure - do it. Starting to fix some of the technological and non-subjective flaws would certainly help too. But for god's sake, can we stop with all the conspiracy bullshit? Until you've walked in the refs' shoes, how about cutting them a little slack. I'm sure a simple "thank you for the 99.9% of the calls that you get right" wouldn't hurt either.
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