On Expectations

Last week I wrote that part of the problem with USC and Ohio State's recent losses is that expectations for their programs are way too high, and overall, I think expectations are way too high for most programs out there. There's so much disappointment, from both fans and the media, when teams lose that it's getting ridiculous. Cal was supposed to be able to get over the hump this year. Ole Miss was supposed to be able to compete for the SEC and maybe a national title this year. We get so bent out of shape when things don't go the way we expect them to that it sours all of the great things that our teams do accomplish.

It's worth pointing out the very important distinctions between expectations and goals. There's absolutely nothing wrong with setting the goal of winning the national championship, for any team (yes, including Duke). It's good to aim high, if only to give your program some direction, and I have no problem with any team setting the highest goals. But expectations must be grounded in reality. If they're not, not only does it cause unnecessary heartache but it also puts the focus on what hasn't happened as opposed to what has. Dreams are nice, but accepting reality can be oh-so comforting.

So in order to help you see where the bar should be set for your team, I present to you Gunther's Levels of Realistic Expectations. The basic premise is extremely simple:

1) Look at what your team has achieved in the last three seasons. That's as far back as you get to go, mainly because teams change, having up and down seasons all the time. No more living in the past, all you teams who won championships when your parents and grandparents were young - you've got to let that go if you're going to be happy and accept the present. You can give preference to the previous year, but beware - one good season does not a juggernaut the next year make.

2) Compare your teams record to the general list of achievements below. Your team's bar is set one level higher than their achievement of the past three years - that's it. Any higher and you're setting yourself up for massive disappointment.

It's as easy as that. Let's take a look at the levels, starting from the ground up. Each team's last three seasons are listed, including records, conference championships ("CC"), and bowl (result), separated by "/" marks.

A Losing Season (Level 0): You know the teams, the ones who are perennially bad every year. They're the cupcakes everyone wants on their schedule, willing to travel large distances for large sums of money so that their opponents can score large amounts of points. This is the ground level.

A .500 season (Level 1) - No matter what you've done in the past, or no matter how awful you've been, every team has the right to expect a decent season and can be justifiably upset if they don't reach the first level. For the 2009 season, teams that should set this as their goal are:

ACC - Duke: 0-12 / 1-11 / 4-8
Big12 - Baylor: 4-8 / 3-9 / 4-8
Big12 - Iowa State: 4-8 / 3-9 / 2-10
BigEast - Syracuse: 4-8 / 2-10 / 3-9
CUSA - Marshall: 5-7 / 3-9 / 4-8
CUSA - Tulane: 4-8 / 4-8 / 2-10
CUSA - UAB: 3-9 / 2-10 / 4-8
CUSA - UTEP: 5-7 / 4-8 / 5-7
Indy - Army: 3-9 / 3-9 / 3-9
Indy - Western Kentucky: 0-1 / 1-5 / 2-10
MAC - Akron: 5-7 / 4-8 / 5-7
MAC - Eastern Michigan: 1-11 / 4-8 / 3-9
MAC - Miami (Ohio): 2-10 / 6-7 / 2-10
MAC - Temple: 1-11 / 4-8 / 5-7
MAC - Toledo: 5-7 / 5-7 / 3-9
MtnWest - San Diego State: 3-9 / 4-8 / 2-10
MtnWest - UNLV: 2-10 / 2-10 / 5-7
Pac10 - Stanford: 1-11 / 4-8 / 5-7
Pac10 - Washington: 5-7 / 4-9 / 0-12
SunBelt - Florida International: 0-12 / 1-11 / 5-7
SunBelt - North Texas: 3-9 / 2-10 / 1-11
WAC - Idaho: 4-8 / 1-11 / 2-10
WAC - New Mexico State: 4-8 / 4-9 / 3-9
WAC - Utah State: 1-11 / 2-10 / 3-9

Going to a bowl game (Level 2) - Usually reserved for the decent and better BCS teams and the good to great non-BCS teams, bowls are still a special achievement that give a team more time to practice, prepare, and prove themselves on the field. Teams that should set this as their goal are:

ACC - Virginia: 5-7 / 9-4, Gator (L) / 5-7
Big10 - Indiana: 5-7 / 7-6, Insight (L) / 3-9
Big12 - Colorado: 2-10 / 6-7, Independence (L) / 5-7
Big12 - Kansas State: 7-6, Texas (L) / 5-7 / 5-7
CUSA - SMU: 6-6 / 1-11 / 1-11
MAC - Bowling Green: 4-8 / 8-5, GMAC (L) / 6-6
MAC - Kent: 6-6 / 3-9 / 4-8
MAC - Ohio: 9-5, GMAC (L) / 6-6 / 4-8
MtnWest - Wyoming: 6-6 / 5-7 / 4-8
Pac10 - Washington State: 6-6 / 5-7 / 2-11
SEC - Mississippi State: 3-9 / 8-5, Liberty (W) / 4-8
SunBelt - Arkansas State: 6-6 / 5-7 / 6-6
SunBelt - Louisiana-Lafayette: 6-6 / 3-9 / 6-6
SunBelt - Louisiana-Monroe: 4-8 / 6-6 / 4-8
WAC - San Jose State: 9-4, New Mexico (W) / 5-7 / 6-6

Winning a bowl game (Level 3) - Getting to the game is nice, but winning it gives you a boost that can last a whole off-season.

ACC - North Carolina: 3-9 / 4-8 / 8-5, Meineke (L)
ACC - North Carolina State: 3-9 / 5-7 / 6-7, PapaJohns (L)
Big10 - Minnesota: 6-7, Insight (L) / 1-11 / 7-6, Insight (L)
Big10 - Northwestern: 4-8 / 6-6 / 9-4, Alamo (L)
Big12 - Texas A&M: 9-4, Holiday (L) / 7-6, Alamo (L) / 4-8
BigEast - Pittsburgh: 6-6 / 5-7 / 9-4, Sun (L)
CUSA - Memphis: 2-10 / 7-6, New Orleans (L) / 6-7, St Pete (L)
MAC - Northern Illinois: 7-6, Poinsettia (L) / 2-10 / 6-7, Independence (L)
MAC - Western Michigan: 8-5, Intl. (L) / 5-7 / 9-4, Texas (L)
Pac10 - Arizona State: 7-6, Hawaii (L) / 10-3, Holiday (L) / 5-7
Pac10 - UCLA: 7-6, Emerald (L) / 6-7, Las Vegas (L) / 4-8
SEC - Arkansas: 10-4, Capital 1 (L) / 8-5, Cotton (L) / 5-7
SEC - Tennessee: 9-4, Outback (L) / 10-4, Outback (W) / 5-7
SunBelt - Middle Tennessee State: 7-6, CC, Motor City (L) / 5-7 / 5-7

10-Win Season (Level 4) - Double-digit victory seasons are a great accomplishment and show a consistent level of good play throughout the season.

ACC - Florida State: 7-6, Emerald (W) / 7-6, Music City (L) / 9-4, Champs (W)
ACC - Maryland: 9-4, Champs (W) / 6-7, Emerald (L) / 8-5, Humanitarian (W)
Big10 - Iowa: 6-7, Alamo (L) / 6-6 / 9-4, Outback (W)
Big10 - Michigan: 11-2, BCS - Rose (L) / 9-4, Capital 1 (W) / 3-9
BigEast - Connecticut: 4-8 / 9-4, Meineke (L) / 8-5, Intl (W)
BigEast - Louisville: 12-1, CC, BCS - Orange (W) / 6-6 / 5-7
BigEast - South Florida: 9-4, PapaJohns (W) / 9-4, Sun (L) / 8-5, St Pete (W)
CUSA - Central Florida: 4-8 / 10-4, CC, Liberty (L) / 4-8
CUSA - Houston: 10-4, CC, Liberty (L) / 8-5, Texas (L) / 8-5, Armed Forces (W)
CUSA - Southern Miss: 9-5, GMAC (W) / 7-6, PapaJohns (L) / 7-6, New Orleans (W)
Indy - Notre Dame: 10-3, BCS - Sugar (L) / 3-9 / 7-6, Hawaii (W)
MtnWest - Colorado State: 4-8 / 3-9 / 7-6, New Mexico (W)
Pac10 - Arizona: 6-6 / 5-7 / 8-5, Las Vegas (W)
SEC - Kentucky: 8-5, Music City (W) / 8-5, Music City (W) / 7-6, Liberty (W)
SEC - Mississippi: 4-8 / 3-9 / 9-4, Cotton (W)
SEC - Vanderbilt: 4-8 / 5-7 / 7-6, Music City (W)
WAC - Louisiana Tech: 3-10 / 5-7 / 8-5, Independence (W)
WAC - Nevada: 8-5, MPC Comp (L) / 6-7, New Mexico (L) / 7-6, Humanitarian (L)

There are some teams who should shoot for either Level 3 or 4, a bowl win or a 10-win season - either one works since they've had neither the last two years.

ACC - Clemson: 8-5, Music City (L) / 9-4, Chick-Fil-A (L) / 7-6, Gator (L)
ACC - Georgia Tech: 9-5, Gator (L) / 7-6, Humanitarian (L) / 9-4, Chick-Fil-A (L)
ACC - Miami (Florida): 7-6, MPC Comp (W) / 5-7 / 7-6, Emerald (L)
Big10 - Illinois: 2-10 / 9-4, BCS - Rose (L) / 5-7
Big10 - Michigan State: 4-8 / 7-6, Champs (L) / 9-4, Capital 1 (L)
Big10 - Purdue: 8-6, Champs (L) / 8-5, Motor City (W) / 4-8
Big10 - Wisconsin: 12-1, Capital 1 (W) / 9-4, Outback (L) / 7-6, Champs (L)
Big12 - Oklahoma State: 7-6, Independence (W) / 7-6, Insight (W) / 9-4, Holiday (L)
Indy - Navy: 9-4, Meineke (L) / 8-5, Poinsettia (L) / 8-5, EagleBank (L)
MAC - Buffalo: 2-10 / 5-7 / 8-6, CC, Intl (L)
MtnWest - Air Force: 4-8 / 9-4, Armed Forces (L) / 8-5, Armed Forces (L)
MtnWest - New Mexico: 6-7, New Mexico (L) / 9-4, New Mexico (W) / 4-8
SEC - Auburn: 11-2, Cotton (W) / 9-4, Chick-Fil-A (W) / 5-7
SEC - South Carolina: 8-5, Liberty (W) / 6-6 / 7-6, Outback (L)
WAC - Fresno State: 4-8 / 9-4, Humanitarian (W) / 7-6, New Mexico (L)

Conference Championship (Level 5) - In an age where conferences are gaining more and more importance and standing, winning your conferences is a major feat.

ACC - Boston College: 10-3, Meineke (W) / 11-3, Champs (W) / 9-5, Music City (L)
Big12 - Kansas: 6-6 / 12-1, BCS - Orange (W) / 8-5, Insight (W)
Big12 - Missouri: 8-5, Sun (L) / 12-2, Cotton (W) / 10-4, Alamo (W)
Big12 - Nebraska: 9-5, Cotton (L) / 5-7 / 9-4, Gator (W)
Big12 - Texas Tech: 8-5, Insight (W) / 9-4, Gator (W) / 11-2, Cotton (L)
BigEast - Rutgers: 11-2, Texas (W) / 8-5, Intl. (W) / 8-5, PapaJohns (W)
CUSA - Rice: 7-6, New Orleans (L) / 3-9 / 10-3, Texas (W)
CUSA - Tulsa: 8-5, Armed Forces (L) / 10-4, GMAC (W) / 11-3, GMAC (W)
MAC - Ball State: 5-7 / 7-6, Intl. (L) / 12-2, GMAC (L)
MAC - Central Michigan: 10-4, CC, Motor City (W) / 8-6, CC, Motor City (L) / 8-5, Motor City (L)
Pac10 - California: 10-3, Holiday (W) / 7-6, Armed Forces (W) / 9-4, Emerald (W)
Pac10 - Oregon: 7-6, Las Vegas (L) / 9-4, Sun (W) / 10-3, Holiday (W)
Pac10 - Oregon State: 10-4, Sun (W) / 9-4, Emerald (W) / 9-4, Sun (W)
SunBelt - Florida Atlantic: 5-7 / 8-5, CC, New Orleans (W) / 7-6, Motor City (W)
SunBelt - Troy: 8-5, CC, New Orleans (W) / 8-4 / 8-5, CC, New Orleans (L)
WAC - Hawaii: 11-3, Hawaii (W) / 12-1, CC, BCS - Sugar (L) / 7-7, Hawaii (L)

BCS Bowl Game (Level 6) - This goes along with a conference championship for the BCS teams, but there's still non-BCS teams and at-large spots to consider. Getting picked for one of these not only means that you're good but you've got pizzaz (television and fan appeal) too.

ACC - Wake Forest: 11-3, CC, BCS - Orange (L) / 9-4, Meineke (W) / 8-5, EagleBank (W)
BigEast - West Virginia: 11-2, Gator (W) / 11-2, CC, BCS - Fiesta (W) / 9-4, Meineke (W)
CUSA - East Carolina: 7-6, PapaJohns (L) / 8-5, Hawaii (W) / 9-5, CC, Liberty (WL)
MtnWest - Brigham Young: 11-2, CC, Las Vegas (W) / 11-2, CC, Las Vegas (W) / 10-3, Las Vegas (L)
MtnWest - TCU: 11-2, Poinsettia (W) / 8-5, Texas (W) / 11-2, Poinsettia (W)
SEC - Georgia: 9-4, Chick-Fil-A (W) / 11-2, BCS - Sugar (W) / 10-3, Capital 1 (W)

There's also a few teams who haven't been able to get over the hump in the big BCS bowls. These are the teams that should shoot for a BCS bowl win:

Big10 - Ohio State: 12-1, CC, NatChamp (L) / 11-2, CC, NatChamp (L) / 10-3, BCS - Fiesta (L)
Big10 - Penn State: 9-4, Outback (W) / 9-4, Alamo (W) / 11-2, CC, BCS - Rose (L)
Big12 - Oklahoma: 11-3, CC, BCS - Fiesta (L) / 11-3, CC, BCS - Fiesta (L) / 12-2, CC, NatChamp (L)
BigEast - Cincinnati: 8-5, Intl. (W) / 10-3, PapaJohns (W) / 11-3, CC, BCS - Orange (L)
SEC - Alabama: 6-7, Independence (L) / 7-6, Independence (W) / 12-2, BCS - Sugar (L)

National Championship Game (Level 7) - the second highest level, if you can make it to the top 2 in the BCS rankings, you've had one hell of a season.

ACC - Virginia Tech: 10-3, Chick-Fil-A (L) / 11-3, CC, BCS - Orange (L) / 10-4, CC, BCS - Orange (W)
Big12 - Texas: 10-3, Alamo (W) / 10-3, Holiday (W) / 12-1, BCS - Fiesta (W)
MtnWest - Utah: 8-5, Armed Forces (W) / 9-4, Poinsettia (W) / 13-0, CC, BCS - Sugar (W)
Pac10 - USC: 11-2, CC, BCS - Rose (W) / 11-2, CC, BCS - Rose (W) / 12-1, CC, BCS - Rose (W)
SEC - LSU: 11-2 / 12-2, CC, NatChamp (W) / 8-5, Chick-Fil-A (W)
WAC - Boise State: 13-0, CC, BCS - Fiesta (W) / 10-3, Hawaii (L) / 12-1, CC, Poinsettia (L)

National Title (Level 8) - the top of the ladder, the pinnacle, the mountain that everyone's team can climb in their dreams. But this is reality. Only one team this year is allowed to be disappointed if they don't win it.

SEC - Florida: 13-1, CC, NatChamp (W) / 9-4, Capital 1 (L) / 13-1, CC, NatChamp (W)

Now that we've gotten all that settled, let me make some things clear.

These placements of teams aren't set in stone, and they're not meant to be. The levels are simply a guide to where your team stands based on what they've accomplished recently. Should Ohio State expect to win the national championship based on their recent history? No - a much more suitable expectation would be a BCS win. Should Miami be upset if they don't make it to the title game? No - a suitable expectation would be a conference championship or 10-win season.

I'm not saying that you can't have really high goals for your team. I'm saying that you're not allowed to whine and be upset when they don't reach them or meet your too-high expectataions. That's just annoying and nobody wants to listen to you moan and groan when there's probably lots of teams who didn't fare as well as yours this year. Just try to be happy at what your team does accomplish this year, especially if they reach a higher level than they have in the last few years.

And remember - there's always next year.