2010 Top to Bottom
Which conferences had the most parity this season?
As we did the past few years, we're going to break down each conference to see which ones were the most balanced, top to bottom.
As I said before, the premise is that the more often the team with fewer conference victories wins, which we’ll call a "Statistical Upset", the more balanced the conference. Basically, how often do the teams at the bottom upset the teams at the top? The maximum here is 50%, since it's impossible to have more than half of the games in a conference be upsets. The average over all conferences during the BCS era sits at about 13.8%. Below is the big parity table - the numbers in red are below average, blue are above, red shaded means that conference was the least balanced conference in any particular year, and blue shaded is the most balanced in any year. Sort by clicking on the year headers if you want.
| % of Conf Games that were Statistical Upsets | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Conf Avg |
| Pac10 | 08.1% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 22.2% | 07.9% | 10.8% | 28.9% | 30.0% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 14.6% | 16.7% |
| ACC | 06.3% | 20.7% | 05.9% | 21.9% | 11.8% | 21.2% | 13.2% | 25.0% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 29.0% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| SunBelt | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 26.9% | 23.8% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 05.9% | 29.0% | 16.5% | |||
| CUSA | 09.1% | 04.5% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 20.0% | 07.5% | 18.2% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 15.7% |
| Big10 | 08.1% | 16.7% | 21.6% | 29.7% | 07.3% | 07.9% | 12.5% | 05.4% | 05.1% | 19.4% | 13.2% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 14.2% |
| Year Avg | 09.8% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.8% |
| Big12 | 09.3% | 09.5% | 06.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 19.5% | 02.6% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 13.4% |
| MAC | 11.1% | 16.0% | 18.6% | 15.9% | 07.1% | 11.3% | 07.5% | 19.0% | 13.6% | 22.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 13.3% |
| BigWest | 23.1% | 16.7% | 00.0% | 13.2% | ||||||||||
| MtnWest | 25.0% | 20.8% | 07.7% | 15.4% | 20.8% | 12.0% | 21.9% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 02.9% | 00.0% | 03.2% | 13.1% | |
| SEC | 06.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 18.6% | 11.4% | 04.7% | 07.0% | 09.3% | 13.0% | 20.9% | 19.0% | 15.4% | 07.0% | 12.3% |
| BigEast | 08.3% | 07.7% | 03.8% | 00.0% | 03.8% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 08.3% | 20.0% | 30.4% | 12.5% | 08.7% | 20.8% | 11.6% |
| WAC | 08.3% | 27.3% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 05.7% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 03.2% | 05.9% | 00.0% | 09.7% | 06.3% | 00.0% | 09.2% |
Overall during the BCS years, the Pac10 and ACC have been the most balanced conferences, with almost 17% of their games resulting in an upset. The WAC is generally the most unbalanced conference with the least amount of parity, even notching a perfectly unbalanced season in 2007 and again this 2010 season. The BigEast is on a pendulum, becoming rebalanced this year. So let's start looking at the individual conferences for 2010.
Games shaded blue are ones in which the team with more conference victories won, red are ones in which the team with more conference victories lost, and green are ones between teams with the same number of conference victories. The numbers represent the margin of victory (or loss, if the number is negative) for the team listed in the farthest left-hand row.
| SunBelt 2010 - 29.0% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | FlaIntl | Troy | MidTNSt | ArkSt | LA-Mon | FlaAtl | LA-Laf | N Texas | West KY |
| Florida Intl. (6-2) | 17 | -1 | 7 | 7 | -12 | 21 | 24 | 7 | |
| Troy (6-2) | -17 | 29 | 7 | -14 | 37 | 7 | 6 | 14 | |
| Mid TN St (5-3) | 1 | -29 | -27 | 28 | 24 | 20 | -6 | 1 | |
| Arkansas St (4-4) | -7 | -7 | 27 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 5 | -1 | |
| LA-Monroe (4-4) | -7 | 14 | -28 | -14 | 3 | -1 | 12 | 5 | |
| Florida Atl. (3-5) | 12 | -37 | -24 | -21 | -3 | 1 | -4 | 1 | |
| LA-Lafayette (3-5) | -21 | -7 | -20 | 7 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -33 | |
| North Texas (3-5) | -24 | -6 | 6 | -5 | -12 | 4 | -1 | 27 | |
| Western Kentucky (2-6) | -7 | -14 | -1 | 1 | -5 | -1 | 33 | -27 |
Wow, we missed a great conference race in the SunBelt, huh? Every team involved in the upsets, and not any undefeated or even 1-loss teams. Almost as balanced as you can get.
| CUSA 2010 - 20.9% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | UCF | SMU | Tulsa | E Car | S Miss | Houst | Marsh | UAB | UTEP | Rice | Tulane | Memph |
| Central Florida (7-1) | 14 | -10 | 7 | 21 | 35 | 27 | 47 | 20 | ||||
| SMU (6-2) | 3 | 7 | -25 | 14 | 21 | -14 | 11 | 14 | ||||
| Tulsa (6-2) | -3 | -2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 26 | 41 | ||||
| East Carolina (5-3) | -14 | -7 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 8 | -24 | 22 | ||||
| Southern Miss (5-3) | 10 | -6 | -1 | 18 | 25 | -1 | 16 | 22 | ||||
| Houston (4-4) | -7 | 25 | -3 | -18 | 30 | -3 | 19 | 39 | ||||
| Marshall (4-4) | -21 | -14 | -27 | -25 | 14 | 4 | 15 | 15 | ||||
| UAB (3-5) | -35 | -21 | -8 | 1 | -14 | 15 | -5 | 16 | ||||
| UTEP (3-5) | 14 | -3 | -30 | -4 | -15 | 20 | -10 | 3 | ||||
| Rice (3-5) | -27 | -11 | -37 | 24 | 3 | 5 | -20 | -5 | ||||
| Tulane (2-6) | -47 | -14 | -26 | -16 | -19 | -15 | 10 | 5 | ||||
| Memphis (0-8) | -20 | -41 | -22 | -22 | -39 | -15 | -16 | -3 |
The CUSA had a good amount of parity going on too, the biggest upset being 3-5 UTEP's 14 point win over 6-2 SMU. Memphis probably would've done a bit better if they hadn't had to play 8 of the toughest 9 teams in the conference.
| BigEast 2010 - 20.8% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | WestVA | Pitt | UConn | Syrac | USF | L'vlle | Cincy | Rutg |
| West Virginia (5-2) | 25 | -3 | -5 | 14 | 7 | 27 | 21 | |
| Pittsburgh (5-2) | -25 | -2 | 31 | 7 | 17 | 18 | 20 | |
| Uconn (5-2) | 3 | 2 | 17 | 3 | -26 | 21 | -3 | |
| Syracuse (4-3) | 5 | -31 | -17 | 4 | -8 | 24 | 3 | |
| South Florida (3-4) | -14 | -7 | -3 | -4 | 3 | 8 | 1 | |
| Louisville (3-4) | -7 | -17 | 26 | 8 | -3 | -8 | 27 | |
| Cincinnati (2-5) | -27 | -18 | -21 | -24 | -8 | 8 | 31 | |
| Rutgers (1-6) | -21 | -20 | 3 | -3 | -1 | -27 | -31 |
A good race in the BigEast this year, making for a more exciting year than last. 1-6 Rutgers taking down eventual conference champ UConn was the biggest upset of the year, but Louisville had a hand in three of the five upsets here.
| Big12 2010 - 18.4% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Nebras | Okla | Mizzou | OK St | TX A&M | Baylor | KS St | TX Tech | Iowa St | Colo | Texas | Kansas |
| Nebraska (6-2) | 14 | 10 | -3 | 35 | 1 | 28 | -7 | 17 | ||||
| Oklahoma (6-2) | -9 | 6 | -14 | 29 | 38 | 52 | 33 | 8 | ||||
| Missouri (6-2) | -14 | 9 | 21 | 10 | -7 | 14 | 26 | 28 | ||||
| Oklahoma St (6-2) | -10 | -6 | 3 | 27 | 10 | 17 | 17 | 37 | ||||
| Texas A&M (6-2) | 3 | 14 | -21 | -3 | 12 | 28 | 7 | 35 | ||||
| Baylor (4-4) | -29 | -27 | -12 | 5 | -7 | 6 | 8 | 48 | ||||
| Kansas St (3-5) | -35 | -10 | -10 | -5 | 7 | -8 | 25 | 52 | ||||
| Texas Tech (3-5) | -38 | 7 | -17 | -28 | 7 | -14 | 3 | -10 | ||||
| Iowa St (3-5) | -1 | -52 | -14 | -7 | 14 | -20 | 7 | 12 | ||||
| Colorado (2-6) | -28 | -33 | -26 | -6 | 8 | -3 | 20 | -7 | ||||
| Texas (2-6) | 7 | -8 | -17 | -7 | -8 | -25 | -10 | -7 | ||||
| Kansas (1-7) | -17 | -28 | -34 | -35 | -48 | -52 | -12 | 7 |
Just look at that upper right hand corner - who could've predicted that 2-6 Texas over 6-2 Nebraska would be so big? Lots of parity at the top, with the top 5 teams coming in at 6-2. More than half of the upsets were at the bottom of the pack between 3-5, 2-6, and 1-7 teams, so they didn't have much of an impact on the big scheme of things. But they still count towards the total.
| Big10 2010 - 17.9% upsets | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Mich St | OhioSt | Wisc | Iowa | Ill | PennSt | Mich | NWest | Purdue | Minn | Indi |
| Michigan St (7-1) | 10 | -31 | 20 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 23 | |||
| Ohio St (7-1) | -13 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 30 | 49 | 42 | 28 | |||
| Wisconsin (7-1) | -10 | 13 | 1 | 20 | 47 | 21 | 18 | 63 | |||
| Iowa (4-4) | 31 | -3 | -1 | 21 | 10 | -4 | -3 | 5 | |||
| Illinois (4-4) | -20 | -11 | 20 | -2 | 21 | 34 | -4 | 30 | |||
| Penn St (4-4) | -6 | -24 | -21 | -20 | 10 | 14 | 12 | 17 | |||
| Michigan (3-5) | -17 | -30 | -20 | -10 | 2 | -10 | 11 | 7 | |||
| Northwestern (3-5) | -8 | -47 | 4 | -21 | -14 | -3 | 1 | 3 | |||
| Purdue (2-6) | -4 | -49 | -21 | -34 | -11 | 3 | 11 | -3 | |||
| Minnesota (2-6) | -23 | -42 | -18 | 3 | 4 | -12 | -1 | -11 | |||
| Indiana (1-7) | -28 | -63 | -5 | -30 | -17 | -7 | -3 | -3 |
Not too many huge upsets here, 2-6 Minnesota over 4-4 Iowa was probably the biggest. Good spread too - no team had a really easy or really difficult conference slate. But there's a definite top three and then everyone else, which isn't necessarily good for parity, but it's good for getting the conference three top-10 ranked teams.
| Pac10 2010 - 14.6% upsets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Oregon | Stanfd | Wash | USC | OreSt | Ariz | ArizSt | Cal | UCLA | WashSt |
| Oregon (9-0) | 21 | 37 | 21 | 17 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 47 | 20 | |
| Stanford (8-1) | -21 | 41 | 2 | 38 | 25 | 4 | 34 | 35 | 10 | |
| Washington (5-4) | -37 | -41 | 1 | 1 | -30 | -10 | 3 | 17 | 7 | |
| USC (5-4) | -21 | -2 | -1 | -29 | 3 | 1 | 34 | 14 | 34 | |
| Oregon St (4-5) | -17 | -38 | -1 | 29 | 2 | 3 | 28 | -3 | -17 | |
| Arizona (4-5) | -19 | -25 | 30 | -3 | -2 | -1 | 1 | 8 | 17 | |
| Arizona St (4-5) | -11 | -4 | 10 | -1 | -3 | 1 | -33 | 21 | 42 | |
| California (3-6) | -2 | -34 | -3 | -34 | -28 | -1 | 33 | 28 | 7 | |
| UCLA (2-7) | -47 | -35 | -17 | -14 | 3 | -8 | -21 | -28 | 14 | |
| Washington St (1-8) | -20 | -10 | -7 | -34 | 17 | -17 | -42 | -7 | -14 |
Another solid year in the Pac10, with all teams except for #1 & #2 Oregon & Stanford taking a piece of the upset cake. No real biggies statistically, though 1-8 Washington State getting their first conference win in a long time over 4-5 Oregon State seemed pretty huge. Not too many games between even teams either.
| ACC 2010 - 12.5% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | VA Tech | Fla St | Miami | NC St | Maryld | GA Tech | UNC | Bost C | Clemsn | Wake F | Duke | UVA |
| Virginia Tech (8-0) | 14 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 31 | 37 | 30 | ||||
| Florida St (6-2) | 28 | -4 | 14 | -2 | 5 | 3 | 31 | 20 | ||||
| Miami (FL) (5-3) | -14 | -28 | 6 | 25 | 23 | 11 | 15 | -5 | ||||
| NC State (5-3) | -11 | 4 | -7 | 17 | 4 | 27 | -1 | 35 | ||||
| Maryland (5-3) | -14 | -6 | 7 | 3 | -24 | 48 | 5 | 29 | ||||
| Georgia Tech (4-4) | -7 | -25 | -17 | 6 | -14 | 4 | 10 | 12 | ||||
| North Carolina (4-4) | -16 | 2 | -23 | -4 | -6 | 5 | 5 | 34 | ||||
| Boston College (4-4) | -19 | -5 | -27 | -3 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| Clemson (4-4) | -3 | -11 | 1 | 24 | 14 | -5 | -6 | 20 | ||||
| Wake Forest (1-7) | -31 | -31 | -35 | -48 | -4 | -10 | -20 | 6 | ||||
| Duke (1-7) | -37 | -15 | -5 | -10 | -5 | -5 | -6 | 7 | ||||
| Virginia (1-7) | -30 | -20 | 5 | -29 | -12 | -34 | -4 | -7 |
The Virginia over Miami game definitely played a role, didn't it? Just five upsets in the ACC this year, but a whole lot of games between even teams. Clemson had a pretty tough route, missing Virginia Tech but taking on the next 8 toughest conference teams. At the opposite end, Maryland filled up on the bottom feeders and missed the Hokies as well - they probably should've been better than 5-3.
| MAC 2010 - 10.2% upsets | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | N Ill | Miami | Tledo | Ohio | Templ | W Mich | Kent | Ball St | C Mich | E Mich | Bowl G | Buff | Akron |
| N. Illinois (8-0) | 35 | 14 | 7 | 38 | 26 | 68 | 31 | 36 | |||||
| Miami (OH) (7-1) | -21 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 5 | |||||
| Toledo (7-1) | -35 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 35 | 19 | |||||
| Ohio (6-2) | 21 | -7 | 8 | -22 | 13 | 24 | 17 | 28 | |||||
| Temple (5-3) | -14 | -20 | -8 | 18 | 3 | 1 | 42 | 30 | |||||
| W. Mich (5-3) | -7 | -13 | 35 | 29 | -4 | 15 | 34 | 46 | |||||
| Kent State (4-4) | -6 | -13 | 22 | -18 | -35 | 19 | 24 | 11 | |||||
| Ball State (3-5) | -38 | -7 | -29 | -19 | 14 | -3 | 17 | 7 | |||||
| C. Michigan (2-6) | -26 | -7 | -11 | -3 | 4 | -14 | 38 | -3 | |||||
| E. Michigan (2-6) | -68 | -7 | -35 | -13 | -15 | 3 | -38 | 4 | |||||
| Bowl Green (1-7) | -3 | -19 | -24 | -1 | -34 | -24 | 3 | -2 | |||||
| Buffalo (1-7) | -31 | -12 | -17 | -42 | -17 | -4 | 2 | -8 | |||||
| Akron (1-7) | -36 | -5 | -28 | -30 | -46 | -11 | -7 | 8 |
Nothing earth-shattering in the MAC this year. Five upsets, none of them really all that shocking.
| SEC 2010 - 7.0% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Aubrn | Ark | LSU | SoCar | Bama | MissSt | Fla | Tenn | UGA | Kenty | Miss | Vandy |
| Auburn (8-0) | 22 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 20 | 18 | 3 | 20 | ||||
| Arkansas (6-2) | -22 | 12 | 21 | -4 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 | ||||
| LSU (6-2) | -7 | -12 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 24 | ||||
| South Carolina (5-3) | -8 | -21 | 14 | 22 | 14 | 11 | -3 | 14 | ||||
| Alabama (5-3) | -1 | 4 | -3 | -14 | 20 | 25 | 31 | 13 | ||||
| Mississippi St (4-4) | -20 | -7 | -7 | -20 | 3 | 12 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| Florida (4-4) | -4 | -22 | -25 | -3 | 14 | 3 | 34 | 41 | ||||
| Tennessee (3-5) | -2 | -14 | -31 | -14 | -27 | 10 | 38 | 14 | ||||
| Georgia (3-5) | -18 | -7 | -11 | -12 | -3 | 27 | 13 | 43 | ||||
| Kentucky (2-6) | -3 | 3 | -7 | -34 | -10 | -13 | -7 | 18 | ||||
| Mississippi (1-7) | -20 | -14 | -7 | -13 | -8 | -38 | 7 | -14 | ||||
| Vanderbilt (1-7) | -35 | -24 | -14 | -41 | -14 | -43 | -18 | -14 |
Things went pretty much to plan this year in the SEC, with only 3 upsets total in the conference. 2-6 Kentucky over East champ 5-3 South Carolina was big, but didn't really have any effect on the conference race. Tennessee had a pretty easy road but didn't take advantage of it, while Alabama plated the toughest seven in the conference.
| MtnWest 2010 - 3.2% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | TCU | Utah | AForce | SanDSt | BYU | ColoSt | UNLV | NewMex | Wyom |
| TCU (8-0) | 40 | 31 | 5 | 28 | 27 | 42 | 49 | 45 | |
| Utah (7-1) | -40 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 53 | 28 | 42 | 24 | |
| Air Force (5-3) | -31 | -5 | -2 | 21 | 22 | 15 | 25 | 6 | |
| San Diego St (5-3) | -5 | -4 | 2 | -3 | 5 | 34 | 10 | 10 | |
| BYU (5-3) | -28 | -1 | -21 | 3 | 39 | 48 | 33 | 5 | |
| Colorado St (2-6) | -27 | -53 | -22 | -5 | -39 | 33 | 24 | -44 | |
| UNLV (2-6) | -42 | -28 | -15 | -34 | -48 | -33 | 35 | 26 | |
| New Mexico (1-7) | -49 | -42 | -25 | -10 | -33 | -24 | -35 | 3 | |
| Wyoming (1-7) | -45 | -24 | -6 | -10 | -5 | 44 | -26 | -3 |
A single upset in the MtnWest this year, and it wasn't even a big one - 1-7 Wyoming over 2-6 Colorado St. Everything else was as it should've been.
| WAC 2010 - 0.0% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Nevada | BoiseSt | Hawaii | FresSt | LATech | Idaho | UtahSt | NMexSt | SanJSt |
| Nevada (7-1) | 3 | -6 | 1 | 18 | 46 | 14 | 46 | 22 | |
| Boise State (7-1) | -3 | 35 | 51 | 29 | 38 | 36 | 59 | 48 | |
| Hawaii (7-1) | 6 | -35 | 22 | 20 | 35 | 38 | 35 | 34 | |
| Fresno St (5-3) | -1 | -51 | -22 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 15 | |
| LA Tech (4-4) | -18 | -29 | -20 | -6 | 13 | 18 | 21 | 7 | |
| Idaho (3-5) | -46 | -38 | -35 | -3 | -13 | 22 | 23 | 3 | |
| Utah St (2-6) | -14 | -36 | -38 | -17 | -18 | -22 | 5 | 4 | |
| New Mexico St (1-7) | -46 | -59 | -35 | -23 | -21 | -23 | -5 | 2 | |
| San Jose St (0-8) | -22 | -48 | -34 | -15 | -7 | -3 | -4 | -2 |
I know that Nevada over Boise State was one of the biggest upsets of the season, and had a major impact on the whole shebang, but statistically it wasn't even a blip, since the Broncos and Wolfpack both finished the season at 7-1.
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