Wednesday, January 13, 2010

the Bowls & Television Ratings: Three Ways

This'll be the last post for a while, since the 2009 season is in the bag. But check back mid-April... thanks for reading.

Alright, let's take a quick look at the television ratings for all these bowls and see if we can't make something of them. The first area we'll look at are the BCS bowls and how they've fared over the years. The chart below shows the five BCS bowls - the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and National Championship. For the first 8 years when one of those bowls doubled as the national championship, the blue of the championship game is marked with the color of the game that hosted it.

The National Championship game, whichever bowl it's been, has held pretty steady for the last few years, staying well over a 15 share for the last four seasons. Same with the Rose Bowl, usually pulling between a 12 & 14 share. The Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange are slowly losing ground though - only the Fiesta has cracked double-digits since 2006, and none of them are near their height of the late 90's - early 2000's. But they've always performed better than the non-BCS bowls - up until 2007, that is.

The only non-BCS bowl that has outperformed a BCS bowl in the ratings is the Capital One Bowl. In 2007, it's matchup of Michigan and Florida pulled a 9.1, higher than the Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls. In 2008, the Capital One bowl with Georgia & Michigan State pulled a 6.4 rating while the Orange Bowl only garnered a 5.4. In fact, of the non-BCS bowls, the Capital One is far and away the most popular. It's the only non-BCS bowl to have a rating share over 5 each of the last eight years, and has been the highest-rated non-BCS bowl 5 of those 8 years, coming in second the other three years.

What about the beloved Cotton Bowl, who everybody thinks should be the next BCS bowl? Well, it's hasn't been performing very well. In terms of ratings over the last four years, the Capital One, Alamo, Chick-Fil-A, Emerald, and Holiday all have better average ratings. It hasn't had a share greater than 5 in any of the last eight years. I suppose if they wanted to inject some interest into it, making it a BCS game might do that. But as far as it being the most deserving of bowls for BCS status, that perception is coming from its storied history much more than actual numbers.

The table below lists all of the bowls from 2002-2009, their ratings each year, their average over the last BCS cycle (2006-09), and whether or not they were above (blue) or below (red) the non-BCS average of a 2.9 rating for each of those years. At a glance, the Emerald Bowl is skyrocketing in popularity, while the New Orleans is tanking.

Bowl Ratings 2002-2009 (by share)
Bowl 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 06-09 Avg
Capital One 5.9 8 5.5 5.18 5.81 9.13 6.4 6.8 7.04
Alamo 4.4 4.21 4.2 5.41 5.99 2.67 4.6 4.8 4.52
Chick-fil-A / Peach 4 4.02 5 5.22 4.78 5.09 3.9 4.2 4.49
San Francisco / Emerald 1.6 1.23 2 2.16 4.48 3.59 4.6 4.6 4.32
Holiday 4.2 4.86 4 5.06 4.11 4.38 4.6 3.7 4.20
Cotton 4.2 4.5 2.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 4.4 4.5 4.03
Continental Tire / Meineke Car Care 2 2.23 1.8 1.52 3.87 3.74 4.5 3.9 4.00
Tangerine / Champs Sports 1.6 2.09 1.9 2.2 2.99 3.69 5.2 3.9 3.95
Gator 6.2 4.2 4 3.93 3.87 2.6 4.1 4 3.64
Outback 4.2 4.53 3.6 2.38 4.36 3.37 3.1 3.5 3.58
Liberty 1.7 2.44 4.6 3.31 3.24 4.14 2.7 3.8 3.47
Music City 2.3 2.44 3.1 2.13 2.23 4.02 2.8 1.7 2.69
Sun 3.6 3.5 2.8 2.61 2.38 2.3 2.2 3.3 2.55
Motor City 1.9 2.33 1.7 2.17 2.11 2.68 2.5 2.6 2.47
Poinsettia 0.89 1.45 2 3.7 2.4 2.39
Las Vegas 2.9 1.76 1.9 2.4 1.97 2.48 2.5 2.2 2.29
New Mexico 1.81 1.96 2.6 2.4 2.19
Hawaii 2.4 2.19 2.2 2.2 2.53 1.47 3 1.7 2.18
Independence 3.6 3.66 2.8 2.8 2.97 1.9 1 2.4 2.07
Papajohns.com 1.67 2.26 2 1.6 1.88
Fort Worth / Armed Forces 2.81 1.6 2.28 2.03 1.99 1.7 1.6 1.83
GMAC 2.3 1.48 2.1 1.98 1.58 1.13 2.2 2.4 1.83
Humanitarian 1.8 2.09 1.7 2.33 1.63 0.77 2.4 2.1 1.73
International 1.31 1.59 2.1 1.1 1.53
New Orleans 1.4 1.54 1.4 1.71 1.32 1.63 0.8 0.7 1.11
Texas 1.42 0.3 0.3 2.1 1.03
Insight 3.4 3.08 2.9 3.33 0.93 0.4 1.2 0.4 0.73
Little Caesars 2.6
EagleBank 2.2 1.9
St. Petersburg 1.3 1.6
Houston 2.6 2.46 2.0 2.15
Seattle 2.4
Silicon Valley 0.8 0.91 0.6

So how much of these bowls' ratings have to do with what teams they select? A decent amount, no doubt. As we all know, bowls don't choose participants based on their records - they choose them based on how many seats they'll fill and how many eyes they'll draw to the TV screen.

The final big table below lists how each team's bowl ratings have fared against those bowls when they haven't participated. For instance, in looking at Florida State, in 2004 the Seminoles were in the Gator Bowl, which garnered a 4.0 rating share. In the other years between 2002-2009 when Florida State wasn't participating, the Gator Bowl averaged a 4.14 share. (That doesn't include 2009 when the Seminoles participated, since it would skew the "without the Seminoles" average.) That means that in 2004, the Seminoles drew -.14 less than the Gator Bowl average. Most other years though, bowls benefited from inviting the Seminoles, earning a total of 11.05 share points more than their average without Florida State. Make sense?

Ratings Shares Compared to Bowl's Average, 2002-2009
Conf Team Bowls 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total Avg
ACC Florida St 8 -0.14 1.52 -0.15 4.12 1.65 1.63 2.58 -0.15 11.05 1.38
Big12 Texas 8 0.36 0.58 -0.61 5.46 1.66 0.10 0.98 0.96 9.50 1.19
Indy Notre Dame 5 2.39 1.08 3.95 -0.04 0.90 8.27 1.65
Big10 Michigan 6 0.65 1.73 -0.27 1.00 1.27 2.90 7.28 1.21
Big10 Ohio St 8 0.61 -0.33 -0.38 3.87 0.81 0.81 1.37 0.28 7.05 0.88
ACC Miami (FL) 7 0.18 1.06 0.67 0.89 -0.25 1.79 1.09 5.42 0.77
Pac10 USC 8 1.06 1.35 -2.89 5.11 0.89 -1.94 -1.35 1.79 4.02 0.50
SEC Mississippi 4 1.10 0.96 0.86 0.96 3.88 0.97
Big10 Purdue 5 0.89 1.61 0.09 0.05 0.49 3.12 0.62
SEC Florida 8 0.61 0.94 0.54 -1.21 0.59 2.90 -1.01 -0.49 2.89 0.36
Pac10 California 7 1.29 -0.47 0.16 -0.36 -0.01 1.79 0.39 2.79 0.40
BigEast Rutgers 5 1.57 0.52 0.09 0.16 0.30 2.63 0.53
ACC North Carolina 3 -0.87 1.83 1.23 2.18 0.73
Big12 Missouri 6 1.22 0.36 -0.52 -0.44 0.07 1.43 2.11 0.35
Pac10 UCLA 7 0.73 0.21 -0.27 -0.26 1.65 0.31 -0.30 2.09 0.30
Pac10 Arizona St 5 -0.19 -0.04 1.57 0.36 -0.01 1.70 0.34
Pac10 Oregon St 7 1.84 -0.60 1.34 -0.64 0.64 -0.82 -0.16 1.61 0.23
MAC C Michigan 4 -0.03 0.54 0.36 0.58 1.45 0.36
Pac10 Oregon 7 0.00 0.69 0.85 -0.34 -0.52 0.39 0.28 1.36 0.19
CUSA UCF 3 -0.01 1.03 0.30 1.31 0.44
WAC Boise St 8 0.02 0.94 1.55 0.55 -1.43 -0.85 2.02 -1.63 1.18 0.15
SEC Mississippi State 1 1.03 1.03 1.03
Pac10 Washington 1 0.87 0.87 0.87
Big12 Nebraska 6 1.10 -0.23 0.97 -0.21 -0.01 -0.76 0.84 0.14
ACC Maryland 5 -0.60 0.10 0.05 0.64 0.63 0.81 0.16
WAC Hawaii 6 0.61 0.40 0.41 0.74 -2.59 1.21 0.78 0.13
MAC Buffalo 1 0.77 0.77 0.77
BigEast Connecticut 4 -0.63 0.91 0.77 -0.38 0.67 0.17
SunBelt Florida Atl 2 0.36 0.29 0.65 0.33
Big10 Wisconsin 8 -0.15 -0.17 -0.08 -1.78 -1.15 -0.31 2.79 1.49 0.64 0.08
SunBelt North Texas 3 0.17 0.31 0.17 0.64 0.21
ACC Boston College 8 -0.40 -1.84 -1.18 0.55 0.89 0.85 0.24 1.53 0.63 0.08
Big10 Penn St 6 -0.77 3.95 0.83 -2.13 -1.38 0.13 0.63 0.10
MtnWest BYU 5 0.21 -0.22 0.29 0.31 0.01 0.62 0.12
CUSA Memphis 5 0.32 0.23 -0.09 0.41 -0.30 0.57 0.11
Big10 Michigan St 4 -0.34 0.85 -0.22 0.25 0.55 0.14
Pac10 Stanford 1 0.53 0.53 0.53
Big12 Oklahoma St 7 0.40 0.82 -0.38 0.38 -1.78 0.27 0.82 0.52 0.07
SunBelt Arkansas St 1 0.45 0.45 0.45
MAC Ball St 2 0.09 0.35 0.43 0.22
CUSA Marshall 3 0.46 -0.47 0.40 0.39 0.13
WAC Idaho 1 0.28 0.28 0.28
SEC Vanderbilt 1 0.24 0.24 0.24
CUSA Tulane 1 0.22 0.22 0.22
WAC Fresno St 7 0.20 0.31 -0.36 0.08 -1.29 0.72 0.52 0.17 0.02
SEC Arkansas 5 -0.33 1.16 -0.89 -0.44 0.64 0.14 0.03
MAC Ohio 2 -0.36 0.40 0.04 0.02
CUSA UAB 1 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
ACC NC State 4 2.39 -0.98 -1.63 0.16 -0.06 -0.02
MAC Akron 1 -0.09 -0.09 -0.09
MtnWest Wyoming 2 -0.42 0.28 -0.14 -0.07
CUSA Tulsa 5 0.27 0.08 0.03 -0.84 0.23 -0.23 -0.05
Big10 Northwestern 4 0.09 -0.26 0.07 -0.15 -0.24 -0.06
MAC Miami (OH) 2 -0.48 0.18 -0.29 -0.15
MAC Temple 1 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30
CUSA UTEP 2 -0.40 0.10 -0.31 -0.15
Indy Navy 7 0.21 -1.18 -1.63 1.06 -0.52 0.30 1.43 -0.33 -0.05
SEC Kentucky 4 -0.32 1.47 -0.62 -0.85 -0.33 -0.08
SunBelt Troy 4 -0.26 -0.08 -0.60 0.58 -0.35 -0.09
MAC Bowling Green 4 0.09 0.11 -0.86 0.28 -0.37 -0.09
Pac10 Arizona 2 0.27 -0.76 -0.49 -0.24
WAC San Jose St 1 -0.51 -0.51 -0.51
WAC Nevada 5 -0.10 -0.17 -0.31 0.60 -0.60 -0.57 -0.11
Big12 Kansas St 3 -0.19 -0.91 0.52 -0.58 -0.19
CUSA SMU 1 -0.58 -0.58 -0.58
BigEast Louisville 5 0.40 -0.42 1.55 -0.21 -1.96 -0.64 -0.13
ACC Wake Forest 4 0.00 -1.96 0.91 0.30 -0.76 -0.19
SEC South Carolina 4 0.18 0.00 -0.61 -0.38 -0.80 -0.20
SunBelt Middle Tenn St 2 -0.16 -0.70 -0.86 -0.43
CUSA Rice 2 0.01 -0.97 -0.96 -0.48
MAC Toledo 3 -0.50 -0.70 0.10 -1.10 -0.37
CUSA East Carolina 4 -0.28 -0.85 -0.54 0.56 -1.11 -0.28
BigEast Pittsburgh 5 1.65 -0.68 -2.36 -0.73 1.00 -1.11 -0.22
BigEast Syracuse 1 -1.20 -1.20 -1.20
MAC W Michigan 2 -0.29 -0.97 -1.26 -0.63
Pac10 Washington St 2 -1.83 0.57 -1.26 -0.63
SEC Alabama 6 0.58 -0.21 0.26 -0.81 -1.70 0.46 -1.42 -0.24
CUSA Southern Miss 8 0.40 -0.92 -0.07 0.24 -0.36 0.50 -0.67 -0.77 -1.66 -0.21
CUSA Houston 6 -0.02 0.17 0.00 -0.97 -0.41 -0.51 -1.74 -0.29
Big10 Indiana 1 -1.78 -1.78 -1.78
MtnWest TCU 7 -1.76 0.94 -0.20 -0.31 -0.97 1.94 -1.47 -1.84 -0.26
Big12 Iowa St 4 -0.06 0.18 -0.20 -1.78 -1.86 -0.46
WAC Louisiana Tech 1 -1.88 -1.88 -1.88
Big10 Illinois 1 -2.04 -2.04 -2.04
MtnWest New Mexico 5 0.66 -0.48 -1.18 -0.69 -0.54 -2.23 -0.45
Big10 Iowa 7 0.83 0.72 -1.25 -1.43 1.66 -0.71 -2.07 -2.24 -0.32
Big12 Colorado 4 -0.15 -0.40 -0.85 -0.85 -2.26 -0.56
BigEast West Virginia 8 -0.84 -0.01 -0.21 -0.37 -0.34 -2.02 1.66 -0.21 -2.33 -0.29
SEC Georgia 8 -0.53 1.61 -0.03 -0.73 0.29 -2.73 0.01 -0.28 -2.37 -0.30
SEC Auburn 7 -1.04 -0.17 0.19 -1.76 -0.21 0.64 -0.15 -2.50 -0.36
SEC LSU 8 0.36 -2.44 -1.24 0.70 -0.14 0.46 -0.62 0.06 -2.84 -0.36
MtnWest Air Force 4 -1.64 -0.19 -0.48 -0.58 -2.89 -0.72
Big12 Kansas 4 -0.98 0.33 -1.50 -0.86 -3.01 -0.75
SEC Tennessee 6 -0.80 -0.78 -1.47 0.81 -0.18 -0.60 -3.02 -0.50
BigEast South Florida 5 -1.63 -0.28 -0.61 -0.30 -0.57 -3.39 -0.68
MAC N Illinois 4 -0.26 -0.80 -1.88 -0.57 -3.49 -0.87
Big12 Texas Tech 8 -1.54 0.21 -0.42 -0.13 -1.17 -1.73 0.57 0.30 -3.91 -0.49
Big12 Texas A&M 4 -1.47 -0.29 -2.13 -0.28 -4.17 -1.04
ACC Clemson 7 -1.70 -0.50 -1.10 -0.57 0.57 -0.01 -1.10 -4.39 -0.63
ACC Virginia 5 -1.22 -0.99 -0.17 -0.53 -1.73 -4.64 -0.93
MtnWest Colorado St 4 -1.76 -2.06 -1.50 0.54 -4.78 -1.19
BigEast Cincinnati 6 0.10 -0.47 -0.29 0.50 -3.72 -0.92 -4.79 -0.80
Big10 Minnesota 7 -0.34 0.76 0.46 -0.51 -1.69 -1.42 -2.22 -4.96 -0.71
MtnWest Utah 7 -0.92 -2.36 -1.00 0.03 -0.01 -1.70 0.39 -5.56 -0.79
ACC Virginia Tech 8 -1.64 1.29 0.19 -0.21 0.24 -1.94 -3.94 -0.34 -6.34 -0.79
ACC Georgia Tech 8 0.04 0.10 -1.20 -1.00 -0.28 -1.22 -0.72 -2.16 -6.43 -0.80
Big12 Oklahoma 8 -1.83 -2.94 -3.74 0.80 -1.49 -2.19 -1.64 0.53 -12.49 -1.56

As you could guess, some of the biggies are the best at maximizing TV ratings for bowls - Florida State, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State are the top 5. Below that though, we see something a bit unexpected - Pac10 teams hold down 7 of the top 23 spots. For a conference that has been know to have a hard time putting fans in the stands, that's pretty damn good. Overall, eight of their teams have been a ratings boost, and the total conference positive share is at about 13.2

The Big10 is solid too, with six teams on the positive side and bolstered by Ohio State and Michigan. Their total boost is about 8.0 ratings points. After that, the SunBelt and WAC are about even. The ACC totals -2.5, the CUSA and MAC are at -4.1 & -4.2. Then the SEC - surprisingly, only 5 of their 12 teams performed better than the bowls' average overall, and their total as a conference was a -5.1. Rounding up the bottom was the BigEast at -10.1, the Big12 at -15.3, and the MtnWest at -16.8. Oklahoma was by far the worst as far as individual teams go, bringing in nearly a share and a half less than the bowls' usually did without them. Extremely surprising considering how many championship games the Sooners have made in that stretch.

Overall, the bowls are still a boon in the ratings for college football. I know people have talked about how because there's so many of them that they're all watered down a bit, and that's true. But it's also true that the combined television share of all bowl games keeps going up, to a record high of 138.4 this year. That's up 27% from the 109.1 just five years ago in 2004. So while each of the bowls might be viewed by fewer fans, all together they're attracting more of a TV audience.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Last I checked, Minnesota was in the Big 10. Not sure if that would change the conference numbers, though.

Ed Gunther said...

Yeah, I caught that one too in the stats before I posted. Looks like I didn't change the category though - thanks.

Morgan Wick said...

Not only is "Cotton Bowl for BCS movement mostly result of tradition" kind of a "duh" statement, I think people actually use its bad numbers to support that position. "Look! The Cotton Bowl is getting beaten by the f'ing Emerald Bowl! We need to make it a BCS bowl to restore its tradition!" (I'd be more supportive of making the Cap One a BCS bowl if it were still the Citrus or Tangerine bowl instead of having such a corporate name. Although they may be the last people to want it, considering how successful they are already. Its success may be because they get the first non-BCS choice from probably the two most popular conferences in the country.)

The popularity of the Emerald Bowl is a little mystifying; it's Pac-10 vs. ACC, not the most popular conferences, and not particularly good selections for either. (The Sun and Holiday select better Pac-10 teams; the Gator and Champs Sports select better ACC teams. The Sun and Gator are on very early and take turns taking a team from the unpopular Big East, trumping their broadcast television exposure (which is really just a bet that either will get Notre Dame anyway); the Champs Sports often isn't in prime time, but it still involves a Big Ten team, and the Holiday is just mystifying.) Worth noting that the three highest rated Emerald Bowls involved Florida State, Miami (FL), and USC. Its true popularity under the current tie-in structure is probably closer to the 3.59 it got for Cal-Maryland, and that's where future Emerald Bowls may fall if it keeps its current tie-ins - I mean, name teams falling to the Emerald in three out of four years, especially with the wonky ACC tie-in structure at its spot?

By all rights, given their relative tradition and level of ACC tie-ins and the other conferences they're associated with, the Champs Sports should be rated ahead of the Meineke Car Care bowl and maybe significantly, but in 06 BC's narrow defeat of Navy trumped Maryland's blowout of Purdue; I can't explain 07. Given its tie-ins, might the Outback get ratings in the Alamo/Peach/Holiday range if it weren't mired at 11 AM on ESPN? The Gator and Cotton also probably suffer in the ratings because of their early time slots, and (until recently in the Cotton's case) playing against a boatload of other New Year's bowls, including the Cap One. Note that the bad numbers for the Texas Bowl from 2006-08 and the Insight Bowl the last four years are probably due to being mired on NFL Network. I'm convinced that, given its level of tie-ins, the Insight Bowl would get ratings near the middle of all bowls if it were on a real network like ESPN. (Its 2002-05 numbers back me up by averaging >3.)

(Why do you have a line for the Little Caesars Bowl separate from the Motor City Bowl, and then list the bowl's 2009 rating of 2.6 under both bowls? Similarly, the Houston Bowl became the Texas Bowl, but separating them may be intentional to prevent distortion of the ratings or team differences that would be caused by comparing years with and without NFLN.)

The SEC may suffer because most of the time, SEC schools take spots from other SEC schools, and since pretty much the entire SEC is popular, the difference between schools is negligible. Similarly, Oklahoma has won only three bowls in that period and many of the rest have been blowouts, so they have a rep for choking, plus the first of those wins came at a Rose Bowl where they were an interloper playing no-name WA State, plus they have a habit of being picked for the NC game controversially so people feel bitter about them, plus they were Boise's victims in That Fiesta Bowl that was necessary to make the non-BCS teams draws... note how big a drag the 2004 NC game, where Oklahoma did not belong on the same field as USC, is on the numbers.

Morgan Wick said...

Ratings are also influenced by how close a game is; even though this can't be known going in, people often tune out of blowouts and may get interested in a close game if they see it while surfing or happen to catch a score.

(Blogger kept bugging me about getting my comment under 4096 characters even when every measure I could find of how many characters it actually was told me it was WELL under that...)

pharmacy said...

As you already know, in terms of quality (as with a critic rating a novel), quantity (as with an athlete being rated by his or her statistics) we wouldn't ignore those elements and charts either.

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