the Bowls & Television Ratings: Three Ways

This'll be the last post for a while, since the 2009 season is in the bag. But check back mid-April... thanks for reading.

Alright, let's take a quick look at the television ratings for all these bowls and see if we can't make something of them. The first area we'll look at are the BCS bowls and how they've fared over the years. The chart below shows the five BCS bowls - the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and National Championship. For the first 8 years when one of those bowls doubled as the national championship, the blue of the championship game is marked with the color of the game that hosted it.

The National Championship game, whichever bowl it's been, has held pretty steady for the last few years, staying well over a 15 share for the last four seasons. Same with the Rose Bowl, usually pulling between a 12 & 14 share. The Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange are slowly losing ground though - only the Fiesta has cracked double-digits since 2006, and none of them are near their height of the late 90's - early 2000's. But they've always performed better than the non-BCS bowls - up until 2007, that is.

The only non-BCS bowl that has outperformed a BCS bowl in the ratings is the Capital One Bowl. In 2007, it's matchup of Michigan and Florida pulled a 9.1, higher than the Sugar, Orange, and Fiesta Bowls. In 2008, the Capital One bowl with Georgia & Michigan State pulled a 6.4 rating while the Orange Bowl only garnered a 5.4. In fact, of the non-BCS bowls, the Capital One is far and away the most popular. It's the only non-BCS bowl to have a rating share over 5 each of the last eight years, and has been the highest-rated non-BCS bowl 5 of those 8 years, coming in second the other three years.

What about the beloved Cotton Bowl, who everybody thinks should be the next BCS bowl? Well, it's hasn't been performing very well. In terms of ratings over the last four years, the Capital One, Alamo, Chick-Fil-A, Emerald, and Holiday all have better average ratings. It hasn't had a share greater than 5 in any of the last eight years. I suppose if they wanted to inject some interest into it, making it a BCS game might do that. But as far as it being the most deserving of bowls for BCS status, that perception is coming from its storied history much more than actual numbers.

The table below lists all of the bowls from 2002-2009, their ratings each year, their average over the last BCS cycle (2006-09), and whether or not they were above (blue) or below (red) the non-BCS average of a 2.9 rating for each of those years. At a glance, the Emerald Bowl is skyrocketing in popularity, while the New Orleans is tanking.

Bowl Ratings 2002-2009 (by share)
Bowl	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	06-09 Avg
Capital One	5.9	8	5.5	5.18	5.81	9.13	6.4	6.8	7.04
Alamo	4.4	4.21	4.2	5.41	5.99	2.67	4.6	4.8	4.52
Chick-fil-A / Peach	4	4.02	5	5.22	4.78	5.09	3.9	4.2	4.49
San Francisco / Emerald	1.6	1.23	2	2.16	4.48	3.59	4.6	4.6	4.32
Holiday	4.2	4.86	4	5.06	4.11	4.38	4.6	3.7	4.20
Cotton	4.2	4.5	2.6	3.7	3.7	3.5	4.4	4.5	4.03
Continental Tire / Meineke Car Care	2	2.23	1.8	1.52	3.87	3.74	4.5	3.9	4.00
Tangerine / Champs Sports	1.6	2.09	1.9	2.2	2.99	3.69	5.2	3.9	3.95
Gator	6.2	4.2	4	3.93	3.87	2.6	4.1	4	3.64
Outback	4.2	4.53	3.6	2.38	4.36	3.37	3.1	3.5	3.58
Liberty	1.7	2.44	4.6	3.31	3.24	4.14	2.7	3.8	3.47
Music City	2.3	2.44	3.1	2.13	2.23	4.02	2.8	1.7	2.69
Sun	3.6	3.5	2.8	2.61	2.38	2.3	2.2	3.3	2.55
Motor City	1.9	2.33	1.7	2.17	2.11	2.68	2.5	2.6	2.47
Poinsettia				0.89	1.45	2	3.7	2.4	2.39
Las Vegas	2.9	1.76	1.9	2.4	1.97	2.48	2.5	2.2	2.29
New Mexico					1.81	1.96	2.6	2.4	2.19
Hawaii	2.4	2.19	2.2	2.2	2.53	1.47	3	1.7	2.18
Independence	3.6	3.66	2.8	2.8	2.97	1.9	1	2.4	2.07
Papajohns.com					1.67	2.26	2	1.6	1.88
Fort Worth / Armed Forces		2.81	1.6	2.28	2.03	1.99	1.7	1.6	1.83
GMAC	2.3	1.48	2.1	1.98	1.58	1.13	2.2	2.4	1.83
Humanitarian	1.8	2.09	1.7	2.33	1.63	0.77	2.4	2.1	1.73
International					1.31	1.59	2.1	1.1	1.53
New Orleans	1.4	1.54	1.4	1.71	1.32	1.63	0.8	0.7	1.11
Texas					1.42	0.3	0.3	2.1	1.03
Insight	3.4	3.08	2.9	3.33	0.93	0.4	1.2	0.4	0.73
Little Caesars								2.6
EagleBank							2.2	1.9
St. Petersburg							1.3	1.6
Houston	2.6	2.46	2.0	2.15
Seattle	2.4
Silicon Valley	0.8	0.91	0.6

So how much of these bowls' ratings have to do with what teams they select? A decent amount, no doubt. As we all know, bowls don't choose participants based on their records - they choose them based on how many seats they'll fill and how many eyes they'll draw to the TV screen.

The final big table below lists how each team's bowl ratings have fared against those bowls when they haven't participated. For instance, in looking at Florida State, in 2004 the Seminoles were in the Gator Bowl, which garnered a 4.0 rating share. In the other years between 2002-2009 when Florida State wasn't participating, the Gator Bowl averaged a 4.14 share. (That doesn't include 2009 when the Seminoles participated, since it would skew the "without the Seminoles" average.) That means that in 2004, the Seminoles drew -.14 less than the Gator Bowl average. Most other years though, bowls benefited from inviting the Seminoles, earning a total of 11.05 share points more than their average without Florida State. Make sense?

Ratings Shares Compared to Bowl's Average, 2002-2009
Conf	Team	Bowls	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	Total	Avg
ACC	Florida St	8	-0.14	1.52	-0.15	4.12	1.65	1.63	2.58	-0.15	11.05	1.38
Big12	Texas	8	0.36	0.58	-0.61	5.46	1.66	0.10	0.98	0.96	9.50	1.19
Indy	Notre Dame	5	2.39		1.08	3.95	-0.04		0.90		8.27	1.65
Big10	Michigan	6	0.65	1.73	-0.27	1.00	1.27	2.90			7.28	1.21
Big10	Ohio St	8	0.61	-0.33	-0.38	3.87	0.81	0.81	1.37	0.28	7.05	0.88
ACC	Miami (FL)	7	0.18	1.06	0.67	0.89	-0.25		1.79	1.09	5.42	0.77
Pac10	USC	8	1.06	1.35	-2.89	5.11	0.89	-1.94	-1.35	1.79	4.02	0.50
SEC	Mississippi	4	1.10	0.96					0.86	0.96	3.88	0.97
Big10	Purdue	5	0.89	1.61	0.09		0.05	0.49			3.12	0.62
SEC	Florida	8	0.61	0.94	0.54	-1.21	0.59	2.90	-1.01	-0.49	2.89	0.36
Pac10	California	7		1.29	-0.47	0.16	-0.36	-0.01	1.79	0.39	2.79	0.40
BigEast	Rutgers	5				1.57	0.52	0.09	0.16	0.30	2.63	0.53
ACC	North Carolina	3			-0.87				1.83	1.23	2.18	0.73
Big12	Missouri	6		1.22		0.36	-0.52	-0.44	0.07	1.43	2.11	0.35
Pac10	UCLA	7	0.73	0.21	-0.27	-0.26	1.65	0.31		-0.30	2.09	0.30
Pac10	Arizona St	5	-0.19		-0.04	1.57	0.36	-0.01			1.70	0.34
Pac10	Oregon St	7	1.84	-0.60	1.34		-0.64	0.64	-0.82	-0.16	1.61	0.23
MAC	C Michigan	4					-0.03	0.54	0.36	0.58	1.45	0.36
Pac10	Oregon	7	0.00	0.69		0.85	-0.34	-0.52	0.39	0.28	1.36	0.19
CUSA	UCF	3				-0.01		1.03		0.30	1.31	0.44
WAC	Boise St	8	0.02	0.94	1.55	0.55	-1.43	-0.85	2.02	-1.63	1.18	0.15
SEC	Mississippi State	1						1.03			1.03	1.03
Pac10	Washington	1	0.87								0.87	0.87
Big12	Nebraska	6	1.10	-0.23		0.97	-0.21		-0.01	-0.76	0.84	0.14
ACC	Maryland	5	-0.60	0.10			0.05	0.64	0.63		0.81	0.16
WAC	Hawaii	6	0.61	0.40	0.41		0.74	-2.59	1.21		0.78	0.13
MAC	Buffalo	1							0.77		0.77	0.77
BigEast	Connecticut	4			-0.63			0.91	0.77	-0.38	0.67	0.17
SunBelt	Florida Atl	2						0.36	0.29		0.65	0.33
Big10	Wisconsin	8	-0.15	-0.17	-0.08	-1.78	-1.15	-0.31	2.79	1.49	0.64	0.08
SunBelt	North Texas	3	0.17	0.31	0.17						0.64	0.21
ACC	Boston College	8	-0.40	-1.84	-1.18	0.55	0.89	0.85	0.24	1.53	0.63	0.08
Big10	Penn St	6	-0.77			3.95	0.83	-2.13	-1.38	0.13	0.63	0.10
MtnWest	BYU	5				0.21	-0.22	0.29	0.31	0.01	0.62	0.12
CUSA	Memphis	5		0.32	0.23	-0.09		0.41	-0.30		0.57	0.11
Big10	Michigan St	4		-0.34				0.85	-0.22	0.25	0.55	0.14
Pac10	Stanford	1								0.53	0.53	0.53
Big12	Oklahoma St	7	0.40	0.82	-0.38		0.38	-1.78	0.27	0.82	0.52	0.07
SunBelt	Arkansas St	1				0.45					0.45	0.45
MAC	Ball St	2						0.09	0.35		0.43	0.22
CUSA	Marshall	3	0.46		-0.47					0.40	0.39	0.13
WAC	Idaho	1								0.28	0.28	0.28
SEC	Vanderbilt	1							0.24		0.24	0.24
CUSA	Tulane	1	0.22								0.22	0.22
WAC	Fresno St	7	0.20	0.31	-0.36	0.08		-1.29	0.72	0.52	0.17	0.02
SEC	Arkansas	5	-0.33	1.16			-0.89	-0.44		0.64	0.14	0.03
MAC	Ohio	2					-0.36			0.40	0.04	0.02
CUSA	UAB	1			-0.01						-0.01	-0.01
ACC	NC State	4	2.39	-0.98		-1.63			0.16		-0.06	-0.02
MAC	Akron	1				-0.09					-0.09	-0.09
MtnWest	Wyoming	2			-0.42					0.28	-0.14	-0.07
CUSA	Tulsa	5		0.27		0.08	0.03	-0.84	0.23		-0.23	-0.05
Big10	Northwestern	4		0.09		-0.26			0.07	-0.15	-0.24	-0.06
MAC	Miami (OH)	2		-0.48	0.18						-0.29	-0.15
MAC	Temple	1								-0.30	-0.30	-0.30
CUSA	UTEP	2			-0.40	0.10					-0.31	-0.15
Indy	Navy	7		0.21	-1.18	-1.63	1.06	-0.52	0.30	1.43	-0.33	-0.05
SEC	Kentucky	4					-0.32	1.47	-0.62	-0.85	-0.33	-0.08
SunBelt	Troy	4			-0.26		-0.08		-0.60	0.58	-0.35	-0.09
MAC	Bowling Green	4		0.09	0.11			-0.86		0.28	-0.37	-0.09
Pac10	Arizona	2							0.27	-0.76	-0.49	-0.24
WAC	San Jose St	1					-0.51				-0.51	-0.51
WAC	Nevada	5				-0.10	-0.17	-0.31	0.60	-0.60	-0.57	-0.11
Big12	Kansas St	3	-0.19	-0.91			0.52				-0.58	-0.19
CUSA	SMU	1								-0.58	-0.58	-0.58
BigEast	Louisville	5	0.40	-0.42	1.55	-0.21	-1.96				-0.64	-0.13
ACC	Wake Forest	4	0.00				-1.96	0.91	0.30		-0.76	-0.19
SEC	South Carolina	4				0.18	0.00		-0.61	-0.38	-0.80	-0.20
SunBelt	Middle Tenn St	2					-0.16			-0.70	-0.86	-0.43
CUSA	Rice	2					0.01		-0.97		-0.96	-0.48
MAC	Toledo	3	-0.50		-0.70	0.10					-1.10	-0.37
CUSA	East Carolina	4					-0.28	-0.85	-0.54	0.56	-1.11	-0.28
BigEast	Pittsburgh	5	1.65	-0.68	-2.36				-0.73	1.00	-1.11	-0.22
BigEast	Syracuse	1			-1.20						-1.20	-1.20
MAC	W Michigan	2					-0.29		-0.97		-1.26	-0.63
Pac10	Washington St	2	-1.83	0.57							-1.26	-0.63
SEC	Alabama	6			0.58	-0.21	0.26	-0.81	-1.70	0.46	-1.42	-0.24
CUSA	Southern Miss	8	0.40	-0.92	-0.07	0.24	-0.36	0.50	-0.67	-0.77	-1.66	-0.21
CUSA	Houston	6		-0.02		0.17	0.00	-0.97	-0.41	-0.51	-1.74	-0.29
Big10	Indiana	1						-1.78			-1.78	-1.78
MtnWest	TCU	7	-1.76	0.94		-0.20	-0.31	-0.97	1.94	-1.47	-1.84	-0.26
Big12	Iowa St	4	-0.06		0.18	-0.20				-1.78	-1.86	-0.46
WAC	Louisiana Tech	1							-1.88		-1.88	-1.88
Big10	Illinois	1						-2.04			-2.04	-2.04
MtnWest	New Mexico	5	0.66	-0.48	-1.18		-0.69	-0.54			-2.23	-0.45
Big10	Iowa	7	0.83	0.72	-1.25	-1.43	1.66		-0.71	-2.07	-2.24	-0.32
Big12	Colorado	4	-0.15		-0.40	-0.85		-0.85			-2.26	-0.56
BigEast	West Virginia	8	-0.84	-0.01	-0.21	-0.37	-0.34	-2.02	1.66	-0.21	-2.33	-0.29
SEC	Georgia	8	-0.53	1.61	-0.03	-0.73	0.29	-2.73	0.01	-0.28	-2.37	-0.30
SEC	Auburn	7	-1.04	-0.17	0.19	-1.76	-0.21	0.64		-0.15	-2.50	-0.36
SEC	LSU	8	0.36	-2.44	-1.24	0.70	-0.14	0.46	-0.62	0.06	-2.84	-0.36
MtnWest	Air Force	4	-1.64					-0.19	-0.48	-0.58	-2.89	-0.72
Big12	Kansas	4		-0.98		0.33		-1.50	-0.86		-3.01	-0.75
SEC	Tennessee	6	-0.80	-0.78	-1.47		0.81	-0.18		-0.60	-3.02	-0.50
BigEast	South Florida	5				-1.63	-0.28	-0.61	-0.30	-0.57	-3.39	-0.68
MAC	N Illinois	4			-0.26		-0.80		-1.88	-0.57	-3.49	-0.87
Big12	Texas Tech	8	-1.54	0.21	-0.42	-0.13	-1.17	-1.73	0.57	0.30	-3.91	-0.49
Big12	Texas A&M	4			-1.47		-0.29	-2.13		-0.28	-4.17	-1.04
ACC	Clemson	7	-1.70	-0.50		-1.10	-0.57	0.57	-0.01	-1.10	-4.39	-0.63
ACC	Virginia	5	-1.22	-0.99	-0.17	-0.53		-1.73			-4.64	-0.93
MtnWest	Colorado St	4	-1.76	-2.06		-1.50			0.54		-4.78	-1.19
BigEast	Cincinnati	6	0.10		-0.47		-0.29	0.50	-3.72	-0.92	-4.79	-0.80
Big10	Minnesota	7	-0.34	0.76	0.46	-0.51	-1.69		-1.42	-2.22	-4.96	-0.71
MtnWest	Utah	7		-0.92	-2.36	-1.00	0.03	-0.01	-1.70	0.39	-5.56	-0.79
ACC	Virginia Tech	8	-1.64	1.29	0.19	-0.21	0.24	-1.94	-3.94	-0.34	-6.34	-0.79
ACC	Georgia Tech	8	0.04	0.10	-1.20	-1.00	-0.28	-1.22	-0.72	-2.16	-6.43	-0.80
Big12	Oklahoma	8	-1.83	-2.94	-3.74	0.80	-1.49	-2.19	-1.64	0.53	-12.49	-1.56

As you could guess, some of the biggies are the best at maximizing TV ratings for bowls - Florida State, Texas, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Ohio State are the top 5. Below that though, we see something a bit unexpected - Pac10 teams hold down 7 of the top 23 spots. For a conference that has been know to have a hard time putting fans in the stands, that's pretty damn good. Overall, eight of their teams have been a ratings boost, and the total conference positive share is at about 13.2

The Big10 is solid too, with six teams on the positive side and bolstered by Ohio State and Michigan. Their total boost is about 8.0 ratings points. After that, the SunBelt and WAC are about even. The ACC totals -2.5, the CUSA and MAC are at -4.1 & -4.2. Then the SEC - surprisingly, only 5 of their 12 teams performed better than the bowls' average overall, and their total as a conference was a -5.1. Rounding up the bottom was the BigEast at -10.1, the Big12 at -15.3, and the MtnWest at -16.8. Oklahoma was by far the worst as far as individual teams go, bringing in nearly a share and a half less than the bowls' usually did without them. Extremely surprising considering how many championship games the Sooners have made in that stretch.

Overall, the bowls are still a boon in the ratings for college football. I know people have talked about how because there's so many of them that they're all watered down a bit, and that's true. But it's also true that the combined television share of all bowl games keeps going up, to a record high of 138.4 this year. That's up 27% from the 109.1 just five years ago in 2004. So while each of the bowls might be viewed by fewer fans, all together they're attracting more of a TV audience.