Thursday, November 12, 2009

A Bad Combination

Even though I'm willing to admit that my anti-playoff stance has softened in recent years, my deep-seated loathing for this type of media crap knows no bounds. I know you need to give Lunardi something to do, ESPN, but couldn't you at least ACT like you care about the college basketball regular season? I mean, you're not even trying.

But that couldn't/wouldn't happen with college football, right? Wrong.

Apparently since conventional wisdom among those with short memories and no imagination is that Texas and the SEC champ are basically locks for the title game, we might as well ignore the last four weeks of the season. "This season is dangerously close to jumping the shark"? C'mon, Hinton - you're better than that. We've got exciting conference races in the Pac10, ACC, and BigEast, a Heisman race that's been one of the closest in memory, and November rivalries all still on the slate. How many times can I say it - it's not just about the championship, people. If your focus is on January 7th, you're missing out.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Magical Yellow Flags: a Look at Penalties

If you're a regular visitor to this site, you probably could've seen this one coming.

But it's not going to go where you think it's going to.

We're simply going to be looking at the raw, inarguable stats - penalties that were called and penalty yards per game for the last nine seasons. Not how many penalties were called that shouldn't have been, not how many penalties the refs missed, not how much your team got screwed. As usual, we've gotta set the stage. Here's the first set of numbers:

General Penalty Numbers/Yards by Year
Year Games # pen. avg (ptpg) stdD # yds avg (ptpg) stdD pen diff yd diff Team A pen Team B pen Team A yds Team B yds
2000 696 9,916 7.1 3.1 84,189 60.5 28.9 3.1 26.0 5.6 8.7 45.8 75.1
2001 709 10,045 7.1 3.0 84,483 59.6 28.3 3.2 25.9 5.5 8.7 45.0 74.1
2002 772 10,529 6.8 3.0 89,162 57.7 28.4 3.0 24.7 5.3 8.3 43.5 72.0
2003 771 10,473 6.8 3.0 88,755 57.6 28.7 3.0 24.5 5.3 8.3 43.4 71.7
2004 707 9,369 6.6 2.9 78,668 55.6 27.4 3.0 24.5 5.1 8.1 41.7 69.6
2005 718 9,781 6.8 3.0 82,831 57.7 27.9 3.1 26.7 5.2 8.4 42.8 72.6
2006 792 9,219 5.8 2.7 77,396 48.9 24.8 2.8 22.8 4.4 7.2 35.9 61.9
2007 792 10,151 6.4 2.8 86,244 54.4 26.5 2.8 21.7 5.0 7.8 41.8 67.1
2008 804 9,456 5.9 2.7 81,613 50.8 25.4 2.8 23.9 4.5 7.3 37.5 64.1

So here's what we're looking at. "ptpg" refers to "per team per game", so we see that in an average game over the last nine seasons, each team has taken around 6 or 7 penalties to the tune of 55 yards per game. But that's overall - in each game, there's a penalty & yard difference (columns 9 & 10) of around 3 penalties and 25 penalty yards per game. So the last four columns show the average split of penalties in each game: Team A, the team with fewer penalties, usually averages 5 for 43 yards, while Team B usually averages 8 for 68 yards. Make sense? The two "stdD" columns represent the standard deviation of penalties and penalty yards per year. Interestingly, both the average number of penalties and penalty yards per game has been decreasing this decade, as have the standard deviations of each. That means that the averages for each individual game have been getting closer and closer to the season averages. (Click here for the Wikipedia rundown on how standard deviation works, if you need a refresher.)

All that is fine and dandy but we've gotta dig deeper and find individual outliers, or instances of a team having significantly more or less penalties/yards in an individual game. Why is that particular stat important? Well, mainly because we have to compare each team to itself. If we find an instance of a team taking 16 penalties for 135 yards, and compare it to the averages, it doesn't help because maybe that team averaged 14 penalties for 115 yards per game. So we're going to be computing each individual team's numbers and seeing what jumps out. To do all that we're going to find the numbers, averages, and standard deviations for each of the almost 1,200 team seasons this decade.

Team Penalties-Penalty Yards by year
Team 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Totals
Boston Coll 07.1-54.3 06.6-57.6 06.2-54.5 08.1-60.5 07.3-58.3 06.8-54.8 06.0-43.5 06.9-61.4 04.3-36.7 06.5-53.3
Clemson 08.7-78.3 08.5-72.0 06.2-59.2 06.4-56.5 05.3-45.2 04.8-40.5 04.2-36.2 05.2-43.1 05.5-47.5 06.1-53.0
Duke 09.5-74.3 06.6-53.1 05.4-44.3 06.0-44.6 05.3-38.2 07.4-63.7 06.0-47.0 06.1-52.9 04.7-43.8 06.3-51.1
Florida St 09.8-89.6 08.1-65.8 07.8-66.8 07.0-64.2 09.7-86.2 08.8-78.3 06.8-53.6 08.3-66.9 07.8-72.1 08.2-71.4
Georgia Tech 08.2-67.8 06.8-57.5 07.3-60.9 05.2-44.3 06.3-53.3 07.3-57.2 06.1-50.9 06.9-59.3 04.8-43.8 06.5-54.9
Maryland 06.0-47.0 06.6-56.8 06.0-55.3 06.3-53.6 06.2-49.8 05.1-44.1 04.3-37.2 05.6-45.3 04.7-41.2 05.6-47.8
Miami (FL) 09.0-88.4 10.1-85.8 09.5-81.2 09.5-79.0 07.9-61.3 07.3-70.1 06.8-61.9 06.5-51.8 05.7-46.5 08.0-69.5
N Carolina 05.9-50.3 08.2-65.1 07.9-66.0 05.7-48.7 05.4-42.8 08.0-66.9 06.1-52.8 06.9-55.7 04.8-42.3 06.5-54.4
NC State 08.7-75.8 07.2-61.3 07.2-62.9 07.7-69.8 09.2-70.8 07.6-61.9 07.2-58.0 06.6-54.5 05.5-42.3 07.4-61.8
Virginia 06.4-52.8 07.5-69.3 04.6-34.6 05.0-42.8 05.6-50.0 05.5-47.3 04.5-32.6 04.8-40.9 04.9-42.4 05.4-45.6
Virginia Tech 06.0-52.8 06.7-64.1 06.3-53.1 06.3-54.8 07.7-63.9 06.2-53.6 05.9-51.1 06.6-55.6 05.0-34.7 06.3-53.5
Wake Forest 06.0-49.9 06.7-58.6 05.9-52.6 05.1-43.7 06.1-58.7 06.4-62.1 04.8-44.2 05.2-47.8 04.7-48.2 05.6-51.3
Illinois 04.1-36.4 05.5-55.8 04.9-45.8 05.1-39.8 03.8-32.8 06.3-50.6 04.9-38.3 04.9-48.9 05.5-51.0 05.0-44.5
Indiana 06.5-55.6 07.0-57.1 04.8-47.1 05.1-42.3 06.7-50.0 06.7-55.0 04.9-42.1 05.8-54.5 05.3-49.3 05.8-50.2
Iowa 06.5-54.3 06.5-49.6 07.9-66.0 06.2-49.5 07.6-56.3 04.3-37.3 05.0-44.7 05.6-50.9 04.1-34.3 06.0-49.2
Michigan 05.3-46.3 05.4-40.3 05.0-38.3 04.9-39.8 05.2-45.6 04.0-31.8 04.8-43.8 05.1-44.6 04.8-41.7 04.9-41.4
Michigan St 06.8-62.6 07.7-62.3 06.7-62.4 09.5-81.5 06.3-54.0 06.2-48.5 06.8-56.0 05.0-48.4 05.1-46.2 06.7-58.0
Minnesota 07.7-67.2 06.1-46.5 05.8-44.4 05.8-50.6 05.4-38.9 05.3-50.6 05.2-43.8 05.6-41.8 06.4-53.5 05.9-48.6
Northwestern 09.3-87.7 07.5-67.3 07.3-65.3 06.0-45.6 06.6-57.4 06.2-48.5 03.3-28.0 04.9-46.9 04.7-43.6 06.2-54.2
Ohio St 08.2-73.5 05.9-48.0 05.4-40.8 07.2-61.5 05.9-44.8 05.4-48.2 04.8-43.4 05.5-44.2 05.2-43.6 05.9-49.5
Penn St 05.8-45.1 04.9-38.5 04.9-42.0 03.3-23.2 05.6-46.1 04.8-35.2 04.5-33.6 04.5-34.3 03.8-31.4 04.6-36.4
Purdue 05.9-45.5 07.8-63.4 05.6-46.0 06.5-53.6 05.9-52.3 06.6-52.6 05.3-39.1 05.9-48.3 05.0-40.3 06.0-48.8
Wisconsin 06.0-55.6 05.3-41.7 05.8-45.3 05.1-37.9 04.8-36.9 05.5-47.2 04.7-37.3 05.6-43.9 05.3-47.4 05.3-43.8
Baylor 06.4-56.1 06.6-54.0 09.2-75.5 07.8-64.8 06.3-48.3 08.1-69.6 06.4-56.5 05.8-44.3 06.7-54.7 07.0-58.2
Colorado 07.9-61.8 08.1-68.7 06.8-59.5 07.0-56.4 08.0-60.7 09.5-83.4 05.3-46.6 06.8-55.8 05.4-43.0 07.2-59.8
Iowa St 06.8-62.7 05.9-49.9 05.1-40.8 05.7-49.3 06.0-49.4 05.3-47.3 04.7-35.8 04.7-42.4 06.4-57.4 05.6-48.2
Kansas 06.8-59.0 07.0-63.5 05.1-43.8 06.5-51.2 08.0-63.5 07.3-65.9 05.6-46.2 04.1-39.1 04.8-44.3 06.1-52.5
Kansas St 08.2-69.6 08.3-63.3 07.7-58.4 06.5-48.4 06.3-45.3 08.7-75.2 06.8-57.5 08.2-75.3 05.6-45.8 07.4-59.7
Missouri 06.9-57.1 05.1-40.4 06.8-53.1 05.4-46.9 04.3-35.4 07.2-67.1 04.5-36.9 05.4-46.3 04.1-37.4 05.5-46.5
Nebraska 06.3-57.4 05.6-53.8 06.1-56.0 06.8-54.6 06.8-51.0 07.4-57.8 05.3-43.9 06.4-49.1 07.2-61.5 06.4-53.9
Oklahoma 07.4-63.8 07.6-66.2 05.5-44.1 06.1-48.1 06.5-56.4 08.5-71.7 04.9-37.2 06.9-57.5 07.3-64.6 06.7-56.2
Oklahoma St 07.9-66.1 07.0-50.7 08.9-71.6 06.8-62.5 04.4-35.4 07.5-57.5 05.7-47.2 07.2-66.6 06.5-54.3 06.9-57.0
Texas 07.9-70.0 05.2-45.0 07.2-61.5 07.7-63.2 07.7-59.3 07.6-65.5 05.5-50.8 06.2-55.4 06.4-56.8 06.8-58.5
Texas A&M 06.6-58.3 05.9-49.2 07.0-54.5 06.7-53.7 08.3-71.3 07.0-54.3 05.9-47.9 06.2-47.2 07.3-56.8 06.8-54.7
Texas Tech 09.0-72.5 06.8-59.1 06.4-51.0 07.8-74.1 09.2-75.0 09.4-83.4 07.4-64.9 07.9-71.8 07.3-60.2 07.9-67.7
Cincinnati 07.8-64.4 06.6-58.8 07.3-62.8 06.4-55.7 06.4-50.2 06.2-52.4 06.8-58.1 09.4-79.1 07.1-64.5 07.1-61.0
Connecticut 07.6-62.4 06.8-59.1 06.3-49.9 06.0-49.5 05.6-52.1 06.2-47.2 05.4-42.6 06.1-45.7 05.1-43.9 06.1-50.0
Louisville 11.2-97.8 08.7-74.5 10.3-91.7 07.5-61.0 05.6-51.9 07.7-68.0 05.0-44.8 07.8-68.2 06.3-56.8 07.8-68.3
Pittsburgh 06.8-61.4 06.8-68.0 05.9-56.0 05.3-40.2 05.8-46.7 06.3-53.9 05.7-43.9 07.3-63.5 04.4-33.8 06.0-51.7
Rutgers 06.4-55.4 09.8-72.9 08.9-67.5 06.8-53.4 07.0-54.5 07.2-60.9 04.6-37.5 07.2-59.6 04.5-38.8 06.9-55.2
S Florida - 10.0-84.3 11.6-97.8 09.4-83.0 09.5-80.9 08.8-69.3 08.0-70.5 08.6-72.1 08.5-67.8 09.2-77.7
Syracuse 07.5-61.1 08.2-64.7 05.8-46.8 06.6-55.2 07.3-63.7 06.1-50.2 05.9-46.8 07.1-58.9 04.5-38.3 06.6-54.0
West Virginia 06.4-53.6 07.5-71.4 07.1-64.5 08.0-71.1 08.9-84.0 06.8-58.1 06.8-66.7 05.5-52.8 04.5-41.2 06.8-62.3
E Carolina 05.0-48.3 06.4-50.4 04.7-37.2 06.3-51.2 05.1-39.7 05.5-46.3 04.5-39.3 08.0-63.6 05.9-53.0 05.7-47.9
Houston 08.5-74.6 08.4-67.7 06.4-56.3 08.5-72.5 07.7-60.5 07.8-69.2 06.8-58.1 07.8-67.7 06.3-58.2 07.5-64.8
Marshall 06.9-59.0 07.8-68.0 09.0-74.5 06.3-58.0 06.4-56.4 05.3-38.7 06.6-55.7 06.9-57.9 05.3-45.3 06.8-57.5
Memphis 07.7-62.7 06.7-53.5 05.8-46.4 06.2-49.5 06.4-52.7 07.4-60.3 04.3-37.3 06.6-54.8 04.5-39.9 06.2-50.6
Rice 06.5-56.6 05.7-41.4 05.5-44.5 05.3-45.3 05.6-49.6 04.9-44.2 05.8-42.8 05.6-43.7 04.9-42.5 05.5-45.5
SMU 07.3-60.9 07.0-56.0 05.5-52.1 07.3-58.2 07.0-61.1 06.9-60.8 06.5-53.5 07.7-69.4 06.2-48.8 06.8-57.8
Sou. Miss 06.5-50.9 06.9-52.6 07.4-56.6 05.7-45.8 06.9-59.4 06.2-51.3 05.4-42.1 05.5-53.8 07.6-74.8 06.4-54.1
Tulane 09.2-86.7 04.9-39.2 06.8-61.7 05.5-51.0 05.6-50.7 05.4-48.4 06.0-47.8 06.0-54.5 06.0-52.5 06.2-54.6
Tulsa 05.5-42.4 05.6-48.2 06.5-48.9 06.6-64.1 06.3-56.1 05.8-47.7 05.1-44.0 06.1-56.2 04.4-37.0 05.8-49.4
UAB 08.5-73.5 08.3-61.9 08.3-65.8 06.4-52.4 06.6-51.6 06.8-58.1 07.8-58.5 06.3-50.9 06.9-65.3 07.3-59.6
UCF 08.8-72.5 10.0-81.1 08.0-64.3 08.7-72.3 05.5-48.0 07.5-63.3 04.6-40.3 05.3-47.5 05.7-52.3 07.0-59.8
UTEP 07.3-59.6 08.0-61.5 06.6-53.7 08.4-66.5 06.2-52.6 07.0-64.1 06.1-54.3 07.2-66.4 06.1-57.3 07.0-59.6
Army 05.5-38.0 05.3-44.5 06.3-58.7 05.1-45.8 05.1-44.1 06.2-45.6 04.3-37.3 04.0-31.3 03.8-36.4 05.0-42.4
Navy 07.4-54.1 03.9-34.1 04.3-31.8 04.5-37.2 04.2-35.8 04.3-33.8 04.0-33.7 04.0-29.8 03.2-26.8 04.4-35.0
Notre Dame 06.4-55.6 06.7-56.9 06.1-53.5 06.3-51.0 05.6-45.7 06.4-55.6 06.7-53.5 06.5-57.8 05.4-49.9 06.2-53.2
Akron 07.3-70.4 05.3-43.3 07.4-67.4 06.3-56.6 05.5-47.1 07.4-62.8 09.3-74.0 07.0-52.9 05.5-46.5 06.8-58.0
Ball St 05.5-48.1 04.7-42.1 05.1-40.7 05.8-48.1 05.8-44.6 06.6-59.0 05.0-45.7 05.8-55.6 02.8-26.7 05.2-45.3
Bowl Green 05.2-47.8 05.9-54.0 06.3-56.8 05.8-46.2 06.8-54.4 05.5-47.8 05.5-48.2 06.5-56.2 06.3-53.4 06.0-51.6
Buffalo 06.0-50.5 06.2-42.5 06.1-53.3 06.1-50.3 06.2-49.5 06.9-62.6 05.8-46.3 06.4-56.4 04.7-44.9 06.0-50.6
C Michigan 04.9-37.6 06.6-54.8 04.8-38.9 05.3-50.9 07.7-65.7 08.4-77.9 05.9-50.2 05.9-59.6 05.8-56.6 06.1-54.6
E Michigan 05.9-50.1 06.5-55.5 05.4-41.1 04.3-36.0 07.3-67.2 05.7-51.8 07.3-59.1 06.3-50.3 05.4-50.0 06.0-51.0
Kent St 08.0-57.2 06.3-57.4 07.0-58.9 06.2-58.9 07.0-61.6 06.8-56.7 06.8-58.0 06.0-55.3 05.2-39.6 06.6-55.9
Miami (OH) 06.6-59.1 07.5-65.2 05.6-50.8 06.7-59.0 06.3-51.5 06.3-57.1 05.8-54.7 05.5-47.1 05.3-42.1 06.2-54.0
N Illinois 05.8-52.9 05.9-52.8 05.2-50.5 05.6-51.3 05.6-50.4 06.2-58.8 04.8-40.1 05.1-46.6 04.8-43.8 05.4-49.5
Ohio 05.9-48.7 05.5-48.7 04.4-41.8 05.8-46.8 06.8-56.8 07.5-62.5 06.6-57.4 08.1-70.5 06.6-59.0 06.4-54.8
Temple 07.7-58.7 09.1-71.2 08.3-70.6 08.4-67.9 05.8-47.7 05.2-42.0 06.3-46.6 05.9-48.5 06.8-55.3 07.1-56.6
Toledo 04.5-41.8 08.6-82.0 06.8-59.3 06.1-56.2 05.5-50.5 07.5-67.4 06.9-66.8 07.2-64.0 06.3-49.5 06.6-59.8
W Michigan 05.7-49.6 07.2-56.4 07.2-56.9 06.9-55.4 08.0-65.4 07.6-62.8 06.5-55.7 07.9-65.4 06.2-47.4 07.0-57.0
Air Force 05.3-41.2 04.7-38.6 04.2-33.9 04.2-32.8 05.2-45.4 04.9-45.9 03.9-34.0 04.8-44.2 05.6-46.3 04.8-40.2
BYU 06.9-63.1 06.9-62.0 08.3-64.9 07.3-63.8 07.5-63.8 08.3-72.5 07.2-59.2 07.0-60.2 07.8-70.2 07.5-64.3
Colorado St 03.8-32.9 05.3-43.1 03.7-34.5 04.8-41.0 04.4-35.0 06.1-50.0 04.8-38.9 05.3-43.4 04.6-42.1 04.7-40.1
New Mexico 06.1-49.4 06.5-56.7 07.2-61.1 06.9-60.2 07.8-61.8 07.4-56.2 05.0-41.8 06.6-52.9 06.8-57.8 06.7-55.3
San Diego St 05.3-44.3 05.5-51.8 06.3-52.7 06.8-61.4 08.1-74.3 06.0-47.2 05.9-51.7 06.0-50.3 06.1-51.0 06.2-53.7
TCU 08.3-75.3 10.3-85.8 07.9-67.4 08.1-72.2 08.8-82.5 08.7-79.6 07.2-60.6 06.6-57.9 08.8-76.9 08.3-72.8
UNLV 06.7-61.4 06.6-58.5 07.8-65.5 08.2-66.8 09.0-71.7 08.3-60.9 06.1-57.1 07.2-61.2 05.5-43.0 07.2-60.6
Utah 06.5-63.4 06.7-57.5 07.4-68.2 07.5-64.4 07.3-63.8 07.7-63.5 06.2-57.2 06.3-58.6 06.9-62.8 06.9-62.0
Wyoming 05.3-41.0 05.0-41.7 04.2-33.8 05.8-47.0 06.9-60.3 05.9-54.5 05.7-45.8 06.1-53.2 05.8-51.8 05.6-47.7
Arizona 08.2-68.2 07.2-64.4 07.3-58.8 07.0-64.0 05.1-42.9 06.6-52.8 05.8-48.2 06.2-53.0 04.1-35.2 06.3-53.9
Arizona St 07.8-62.8 07.2-66.1 08.1-75.3 07.9-71.1 07.4-68.6 09.5-81.8 07.9-64.2 06.2-56.8 07.8-66.8 07.8-68.2
California 08.8-69.2 09.0-82.5 07.6-69.7 05.8-46.5 05.9-56.1 05.8-51.7 05.5-47.7 07.2-62.2 05.9-49.9 06.7-58.8
Oregon 07.8-70.2 06.5-59.3 08.5-71.2 07.8-69.7 08.6-79.7 08.0-72.3 07.5-60.0 06.1-55.0 07.1-62.1 07.5-66.4
Oregon St 09.6-88.8 08.4-71.1 09.7-100.2 11.2-110.2 08.6-78.8 08.9-78.9 06.3-59.8 06.6-58.2 06.7-56.8 08.4-77.9
Stanford 05.8-42.8 05.3-40.3 08.0-64.4 07.9-69.2 06.1-51.6 05.1-40.3 05.0-35.7 05.3-50.3 06.9-61.9 06.1-50.6
UCLA 07.1-62.9 06.7-59.6 06.0-58.2 08.4-75.1 05.4-43.4 06.3-52.0 06.4-60.1 07.3-62.1 06.6-56.5 06.7-59.0
USC 09.4-81.4 07.0-60.2 07.0-58.5 05.3-48.8 05.6-46.2 07.2-63.6 06.2-50.2 08.2-74.4 07.9-72.9 07.1-61.6
Wash St 07.4-63.6 08.3-67.6 06.1-52.8 07.7-62.3 06.9-56.8 06.2-50.5 05.0-42.3 06.2-47.2 04.7-39.8 06.5-53.6
Washington 10.5-84.4 08.0-70.3 07.9-67.1 11.5-94.6 07.0-65.7 06.7-63.5 05.4-47.3 06.1-51.4 07.2-69.4 07.8-68.4
Alabama 07.5-57.8 07.9-63.1 09.3-78.8 06.1-50.4 05.8-51.2 06.2-46.8 06.0-42.8 04.5-34.8 04.1-37.1 06.3-51.1
Arkansas 06.2-50.8 06.2-49.2 08.1-71.6 06.5-54.9 05.7-41.4 07.3-58.5 05.9-53.9 06.3-54.4 06.6-48.7 06.5-54.1
Auburn 06.8-54.6 07.3-63.5 08.3-58.0 05.7-50.2 06.2-52.8 05.6-44.8 05.5-45.8 06.2-47.6 06.2-47.3 06.4-51.6
Florida 07.8-59.3 08.9-63.7 07.0-54.8 07.4-59.3 08.8-70.3 08.5-65.3 08.3-63.4 08.2-61.9 07.3-59.9 08.0-61.9
Georgia 05.9-42.9 08.3-71.3 07.2-62.8 08.5-73.7 07.8-66.3 05.9-53.6 06.0-47.0 07.0-58.5 08.6-72.2 07.3-61.1
Kentucky 08.1-65.1 08.9-69.7 08.8-69.7 06.8-56.0 07.3-55.8 04.7-41.1 06.2-52.8 06.4-55.2 05.3-43.2 06.9-56.3
LSU 07.3-63.8 06.9-59.2 07.1-56.9 07.3-60.4 06.0-45.6 08.3-69.8 06.4-50.5 08.4-62.9 06.3-49.9 07.1-57.8
Mississippi 06.6-55.8 04.9-42.3 05.6-47.7 06.2-51.6 07.0-56.9 05.5-42.2 04.9-38.7 06.4-47.6 05.1-48.0 05.8-47.9
MissSt 09.9-83.4 09.5-89.7 07.1-61.2 08.8-72.4 05.9-48.0 06.4-55.7 05.5-51.9 05.9-52.3 05.7-44.3 07.2-61.9
S Carolina 06.1-52.4 06.7-49.4 06.3-56.4 05.5-45.3 06.1-44.5 06.0-46.5 06.6-52.2 05.8-44.3 05.8-49.2 06.1-49.0
Tennessee 06.2-51.3 06.8-57.3 07.3-58.5 07.2-68.0 06.5-56.3 07.9-60.9 04.9-37.7 05.3-45.8 05.5-44.9 06.4-53.3
Vanderbilt 06.4-54.9 06.9-54.8 06.1-47.3 04.8-39.4 04.8-40.4 04.2-30.9 04.0-33.3 04.9-39.9 04.3-36.4 05.1-41.7
Arkansas St 07.9-64.9 06.4-56.3 07.6-62.0 08.9-71.2 08.6-67.5 10.1-75.9 05.8-50.8 07.0-61.2 07.0-65.0 07.7-63.9
Florida Atl - - - - - 08.3-67.0 05.8-52.7 06.5-51.8 07.4-70.4 07.4-63.8
Florida Intl - - - - - 07.7-67.3 07.3-64.1 06.1-46.4 08.8-66.6 07.4-60.1
LA-Lafayette 08.1-67.4 08.5-65.7 05.8-47.5 06.9-59.8 05.5-42.5 06.5-56.6 05.8-46.1 07.0-52.5 07.1-57.8 06.8-55.0
LA-Monroe 06.5-54.3 06.9-57.5 09.7-75.9 08.0-63.4 08.3-79.8 08.5-67.4 07.1-53.6 08.3-67.9 06.8-59.8 07.8-64.4
Mid Tenn St 07.2-65.5 08.1-69.8 07.0-62.5 07.4-68.3 07.8-69.2 08.1-73.3 05.5-42.5 06.5-55.9 05.7-50.6 07.0-61.5
North Texas 05.6-46.8 07.9-70.3 08.1-71.0 08.8-86.9 07.7-69.2 08.2-74.3 06.3-51.6 08.3-66.1 06.6-54.9 07.5-66.0
Troy - 06.9-61.9 05.4-47.4 06.8-55.3 06.3-49.8 06.5-56.0 06.1-57.7 07.2-58.1 06.8-57.8 06.5-55.5
W Kentucky - - - - - - - - 05.3-51.3 05.9-53.4
Boise St 06.2-63.2 06.0-55.7 08.2-77.2 07.2-70.1 06.4-55.9 07.5-68.5 05.8-49.8 07.1-63.7 07.2-64.5 06.9-63.4
Fresno St 08.8-73.0 09.3-76.9 08.4-76.1 07.0-66.6 07.7-72.1 08.1-72.6 05.1-39.5 06.4-54.9 04.9-41.8 07.3-64.0
Hawaii 09.7-69.2 07.8-70.3 08.7-74.4 07.5-66.4 06.0-49.8 08.4-72.7 07.4-66.4 07.0-66.2 08.7-78.4 07.9-68.2
Idaho 07.1-62.0 09.4-81.5 06.6-61.9 07.0-58.3 07.2-67.5 08.6-77.6 07.3-76.8 06.8-63.5 06.4-61.4 07.4-67.7
LA Tech 07.4-62.8 07.8-67.8 07.1-62.3 07.5-57.7 07.1-59.1 06.3-52.3 05.2-47.1 07.8-66.8 06.1-52.5 06.9-58.6
Nevada 08.9-73.7 08.7-71.0 06.9-57.7 07.2-62.4 07.7-68.4 06.1-51.2 04.2-33.6 07.2-57.2 06.8-57.9 07.0-58.9
New Mex St 09.2-74.5 08.3-68.2 06.4-55.8 06.5-56.8 08.6-78.9 05.3-41.2 07.3-73.8 05.9-46.2 05.4-45.3 06.9-59.6
San Jose St 08.3-65.3 07.6-57.2 07.5-70.9 07.3-64.5 06.3-55.6 06.3-52.2 04.8-37.8 06.4-45.8 06.8-51.9 06.8-55.6
Utah St 07.0-66.7 08.6-81.3 08.5-77.6 09.6-74.9 07.1-63.8 06.3-61.6 05.4-47.1 06.1-54.0 07.3-66.8 07.3-65.8

So there's the numbers & averages. (No room for the standard deviations - sorry.) We'll define a significant outlier as any game in which a team's penalties are more than two standard deviations away from their average (meaning we're going to be looking at around the top 5% of penalty games that deviate from the norm). For instance, if Texas' penalties per game for a season are 4,4,19,4,2,3,9,5,5,4,4,3,6, that gives them an average of 5.5 penalties per game and a standard deviation of 4.4. That 19 penalty game is well outside 2 standard deviations from the average (5.5 + 4.4 + 4.4 = 14.3) and will be a good game to include in our group of outliers.

Excluding that 19-penalty game, Texas' average dropped down to 4.4 penalties per game and a standard deviation of 1.8, a significant drop for both. Just to make sure we don't miss any other potentially good outliers, we can perform the 2 standard deviation test again using these new numbers. If we do, we see that that game when they had 9 penalties is also more than 2 standard deviations away from the adjusted average (4.4 + 1.8 + 1.8 = 8.0), so it's probably a good one to look at too. Not as good as the 19-penalty game, but still good. (Incidentally, that Texas example was a real stat - those are the Longhorn's penalties per game in 2006. What's unique about that 19 penalty game is that it's the only instance since 1999 of a team's number of penalties being more than 3 standard deviations away from it's average.)

Finding and grouping these outlier games will give us the chance to examine them more thoroughly to see what, if anything, they have in common. Why did Texas have 19 penalties in one game when they had under 10 the rest of the season? I don't think we'll be able to definitively say, but that's one of the questions we're going to be asking.

So let's look at what we've got so far. Again, we're looking at 2000-2008, which means 6,761 games. Two teams per game gives us 13,522 team-games, and if we're looking at just the most extreme cases of teams committing far more or far fewer penalties than they normally do, we end up with 725 team-games to look at. So again, we're dealing with the top 5% here. Another good thing is that we have every single D1-A team represented, averaging around 6 team-games each. Of those 725 games, 533 (nearly 75% of them) were instances in which a team was penalized more than their average, while just 172 of them were instances of a team penalized less than their average.

One of the first places we can look for signs of irregularities is in home-field advantage. We know there is one in general, (this year it's hovering at about 65%), but is there one with penalties? Just for clarity's sake, the 725 games we're focusing on we'll call the outliers, and the others we'll call the averages.

Home / Away Penalties & Yards
category games avg penalties avg pen yards more penalties more %
Home (averages) 6,029 6.3 53.8 2,362 40.1%
Away (averages) 6,059 6.6 54.6 2,855 48.5%
Home (outliers) 356 9.3 87.9 243 49.2%
Away (outliers) 326 9.9 85.7 238 48.2%

Hmmm... it doesn't appear that there's any significant difference. The home team has a slight edge in the first few columns, but nothing irregular. Something notable is that in the average games, the home team usually takes less penalties, taking more than their visitor just 40.1% of the time. However, when we're looking at the outliers, the home team takes more penalties a higher percentage of the time, 49.2% to 48.2%. This could be due to the fact that in the average population there's more visiting team-games and in the outliers there's more home team-games, but the difference is pretty small. Overall, there doesn't seem to be much evidence here for the home team having a significant edge penalty-wise.

Let's look at something else. What about any advantage given to the higher-ranked team?

Penalties & AP Rankings
category All Games Average Games Outlier Games
neither team ranked 5,596 5,286 310
same # of penalties 1,460 1,425 35
higher ranked, more penalties 3,372 3,157 215
higher more % 52.2% 51.9% 56.6%
higher ranked, less penalties 3,088 2,923 165
higher less % 47.8% 48.1% 43.4%

Well, if anything it seems that overall, the higher ranked team usually takes more penalties, and that's especially the case in the outliers. Interesting.

And that's where I'm going to stop.

Why? For a lot of different reasons. First, I'm sure you noticed that in a way, this exercise is much like trying to prove a negative. We're looking for evidence of irregularities in penalties & games, but not finding any evidence of them isn't going to convince people that bias doesn't exist. We're not going to be able to prove they're not there no matter what we do. The two categories I did look at, home-field advantage and higher-ranked advantage, are the two places where I think most people believe we would be likely to find irregularities, if there were any. We could try other categories into infinity and still not be able to prove a bias doesn't exist. In addition, not finding bias in any particular category doesn't mean that it can't or won't be found in individual games. On the other hand though, good luck proving it.

With all that said, I fully believe that there are no conspiracies afoot to call games certain ways for certain teams, that the refs are not biased, and that the fix is not in in any way whatsoever. Honestly, that's just a bunch of junk people make up to make themselves feel better about losing. Have the SEC referees botched some high-profile calls this past month? Sure. But you know who probably feels worse about it than anyone? Those SEC referees.

Think about this realistically for a second. You don't get to the level they're at without having a huge amount of respect for the game in general. No matter what school they went to or which team they personally root for, I guarantee that every college referee has more respect for the game that overrides those personal ties by far. Do you set out in the morning intentionally trying to be bad at what you do? Probably not, and you probably wouldn't get far if you did. I'm pretty firm in my belief that refs give 100% every game and try to be as impartial and fair as possible, partly because it doesn't make sense for them to be otherwise.

Do they get a call wrong every now and then? Sure. But a lot of those can easily be avoided with the use of instant replay. Sure, some calls are subjective, like holding or interference. The referees have training and years of experience calling those plays - as long as they're consistent, I see no reason not to trust them and defer to their judgment in those cases. For situations like the Georgia-LSU celebration penalties, I think the refs are handcuffed by overbearing rules that are trying to damper down the spirit of competition.

But for the non-subjective determinations, like going out-of-bounds or the ball hitting the ground on an attempted shoe-string catch, use instant replay. Get a donor to give your school money for some LCD high-def TV's, put them in the booth, and use them. Talk to the networks and make them put cameras in more strategic locations so that you can give the guys in the booth the best angles to see the plays - shoot them down the sidelines and endzones, if nothing else. The college game gets it right by reviewing every play. (The NFL knows that would lengthen their games past the mandated 3 hours, so fairness has to take a back seat.) Do whatever it takes to get the call right. I don't want to hear any crap about the refs being human or bad calls being a part of the game. For subjective calls, fine - I can accept that. But with so much riding on games nowadays, the NCAA, conferences, and schools need to be doing all they can to make sure that the black & white calls are correct. Fans won't care if it adds an extra 15 minutes to the games, or if a booth review takes a while. Just Get. The Call. Right. They'll care a whole lot more if you get the call wrong, trust me. Those are things that people besides the refs can fix, so if anything you should be just as pissed at them for letting these things slide.

So where do all of these numbers and all of this ranting leave us? Well, the idea has been bandied about that we need a national refereeing corps that aren't affiliated with any one conferences. Would that help? Well, it would certainly help with the (I believe incorrect) perception that the refs call the games for certain teams. Sure - do it. Starting to fix some of the technological and non-subjective flaws would certainly help too. But for god's sake, can we stop with all the conspiracy bullshit? Until you've walked in the refs' shoes, how about cutting them a little slack. I'm sure a simple "thank you for the 99.9% of the calls that you get right" wouldn't hurt either.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Week 10 Power Rankings

Let's take a look at the power rankings this week...

• Offense: It's an indication of how poorly the Seminoles are playing D nowadays that they're 4-5 and yet their offense is one of the most potent in the country. Overall, they're
#14 in yards per game & #2 in % of opponents average yards per game
#16 in points per game & #9 in % of opponents average points per game
Dadgumit.

• Defense: Even though they're known more for offensive power (at least this year), both Clemson & Mississippi are in the top 15 in total D. Nice.

• The worst defense of the top teams has gotta be Houston. I know their shootout with Tulsa was uber-exciting, but the Cougars are giving up 133% of their opponents' average yards and 128% of their opponents average points. That ranks them at #108 overall. They better hope their offense can keep clicking.

• The worst defense of the top teams is still LSU. I know they've played Florida and Alabama, but even against the weak teams they've beaten the offense was just bad (and looking worse, seeing what other teams are able to to against these opponents more and more). Just look at the numbers -
Washington: 72% yards, 107% points
Vanderbilt: 84% yards, 91% points
LA-Lafayette: 82% yards, 100% points
Mississippi St: 68% yards, 114% points
To their credit, they have been playing much better as of late, topping 100% against Auburn, Tulane, and Alabama. But with the loss of Scott, who knows if they'll be able to keep it up.

• Two teams are in the top 20 in all offensive & defensive categories: Texas & TCU.

• Biggest discrepancies between offense & defense still belong to North Carolina (73% O, 65% D) and Houston (159% O, 131% D).

Offense vs Defense
W L Conf Team YPG YPG% PPG PPG% dYPG dYPG% dPPG dPPG% Offense Defense Total
9 0 Big12 Texas 431.0 119% 41.0 171% 230.8 060% 12.4 046% 145% 053% a134%
9 0 SEC Florida 415.5 117% 31.6 139% 221.1 059% 11.0 038% 128% 048% aa134%
9 0 MtnWest TCU 452.4 130% 35.1 141% 239.5 067% 10.0 038% 135% 053% aaa126%
9 0 SEC Alabama 414.8 119% 30.9 141% 243.6 064% 11.8 042% 130% 053% aaaa119%
8 2 Big10 Ohio St 373.8 103% 30.3 129% 254.1 067% 11.2 040% 116% 054% aaaaa102%
9 0 WAC Boise St 450.4 114% 42.4 154% 277.4 071% 16.0 060% 134% 066% b86%
6 3 Big12 Nebraska 347.0 092% 25.7 103% 272.9 071% 10.3 037% 097% 054% bb83%
5 4 Big12 Oklahoma 394.0 118% 25.5 114% 294.3 074% 13.9 048% 116% 061% bbb81%
6 3 Big12 Texas Tech 477.6 136% 40.5 197% 374.1 093% 24.8 091% 167% 092% bbbb75%
6 3 ACC Virginia Tech 366.1 111% 29.0 171% 312.8 087% 17.4 067% 141% 077% bbbbb71%
7 2 Pac10 Oregon 417.8 115% 36.3 166% 323.6 082% 20.9 074% 140% 078% c69%
8 2 Big10 Penn St 390.0 111% 25.7 106% 271.1 079% 11.7 049% 109% 064% cc65%
9 0 BigEast Cincinnati 471.8 132% 36.3 155% 349.0 095% 18.1 075% 143% 085% ccc61%
6 3 ACC Clemson 357.3 101% 29.8 125% 305.8 074% 19.1 065% 113% 070% cccc57%
9 1 Big10 Iowa 352.0 098% 24.9 113% 284.4 075% 15.9 063% 106% 069% ccccc51%
5 4 SEC Tennessee 400.4 116% 32.1 128% 295.1 080% 18.9 077% 122% 078% d50%
8 1 BigEast Pittsburgh 410.8 113% 34.1 139% 329.6 091% 18.9 078% 126% 084% dd45%
7 2 Pac10 USC 407.6 107% 28.2 116% 333.1 088% 18.0 063% 111% 076% ddd43%
7 2 ACC Miami (FL) 394.0 115% 30.4 145% 335.8 090% 24.1 088% 130% 089% dddd43%
7 2 MtnWest BYU 458.0 122% 36.6 130% 334.4 089% 21.9 083% 126% 086% ddddd42%
6 2 Pac10 Arizona 432.9 115% 32.0 131% 309.0 081% 22.7 088% 123% 085% e41%
7 2 Big10 Wisconsin 400.5 117% 27.8 126% 318.8 085% 23.5 085% 122% 085% ee40%
6 4 MtnWest Air Force 315.3 091% 22.3 096% 276.2 080% 14.3 058% 094% 069% eee39%
7 2 SEC LSU 317.1 088% 25.1 097% 310.7 084% 13.4 052% 092% 068% eeee38%
7 3 SEC Auburn 428.0 125% 31.9 150% 371.6 102% 26.1 099% 138% 100% eeeee37%
9 1 ACC Georgia Tech 436.7 130% 34.4 157% 360.0 102% 25.8 113% 143% 108% f36%
6 3 Pac10 Oregon St 409.0 116% 29.0 137% 366.1 093% 25.8 092% 126% 093% ff34%
7 2 Big12 Oklahoma St 385.8 101% 31.4 117% 340.3 086% 22.9 078% 109% 082% fff31%
6 3 SEC Mississippi 379.1 099% 25.6 090% 316.3 081% 17.4 066% 094% 073% ffff30%
4 5 SEC MissSt 381.5 108% 24.6 125% 371.6 090% 26.8 088% 116% 089% fffff29%
8 1 CUSA Houston 582.9 162% 40.5 156% 495.6 134% 33.0 129% 159% 131% g28%
6 3 Pac10 Stanford 443.0 125% 34.0 140% 391.6 111% 24.6 102% 132% 106% gg26%
8 1 MtnWest Utah 411.3 102% 29.1 104% 299.3 088% 16.4 077% 103% 083% ggg24%
7 3 Indy Navy 356.7 096% 28.8 122% 335.2 093% 21.4 081% 109% 087% gggg24%
6 3 Indy Notre Dame 463.7 123% 30.1 118% 386.2 104% 22.9 090% 120% 097% ggggg23%
5 4 SEC Arkansas 414.3 130% 34.0 150% 432.8 119% 28.1 117% 140% 118% h22%
6 3 WAC Fresno St 434.0 119% 33.0 128% 402.6 108% 25.3 096% 124% 102% hh22%
4 5 ACC Florida St 442.6 138% 32.4 153% 450.4 124% 33.6 127% 146% 125% hhh21%
5 5 Big10 Michigan St 410.8 112% 28.6 119% 352.9 095% 24.3 096% 115% 096% hhhh20%
7 2 BigEast West Virginia 388.1 104% 27.8 114% 335.6 095% 21.0 086% 109% 091% hhhhh19%
4 5 BigEast Connecticut 399.0 116% 26.9 134% 393.4 109% 25.3 103% 125% 106% i19%
6 3 ACC N Carolina 283.6 075% 17.0 072% 274.6 072% 17.1 059% 073% 065% ii17%
6 3 ACC Boston Coll 325.5 085% 26.1 107% 354.6 089% 21.9 078% 096% 084% iii16%
6 4 SEC S Carolina 366.6 103% 19.4 076% 303.4 080% 21.1 078% 089% 079% iiii15%
6 3 WAC Nevada 521.9 127% 37.7 121% 405.9 106% 27.6 113% 124% 110% iiiii14%
5 4 Big12 Kansas 417.1 112% 28.5 118% 357.3 097% 26.9 106% 115% 101% j13%
4 6 Big10 Purdue 384.3 109% 25.9 120% 369.5 096% 28.8 107% 114% 101% jj13%
6 3 MAC N Illinois 360.9 090% 30.0 095% 329.6 088% 18.0 077% 092% 083% jjj13%
5 4 Big12 Texas A&M 477.6 120% 35.6 134% 404.7 109% 30.6 123% 127% 116% jjjj11%
7 2 MAC C Michigan 399.9 105% 28.4 098% 365.0 102% 19.0 081% 101% 092% jjjjj10%
5 4 SEC Georgia 328.8 102% 25.8 134% 366.5 100% 29.4 116% 118% 108% k10%
5 4 Big12 Missouri 369.5 103% 24.9 105% 333.0 087% 26.0 102% 104% 095% kk10%
6 2 BigEast S Florida 361.8 092% 24.5 093% 354.3 092% 22.3 079% 093% 085% kkk9%
5 4 SEC Kentucky 333.6 101% 25.9 112% 369.9 096% 24.0 100% 107% 098% kkkk8%
3 6 Pac10 Washington 367.6 108% 24.4 117% 427.0 110% 29.1 104% 112% 107% kkkkk6%
6 2 BigEast Rutgers 312.2 084% 24.0 095% 366.8 098% 22.2 078% 089% 088% l2%
3 6 WAC LA Tech 340.9 087% 25.4 103% 402.0 096% 27.8 091% 095% 093% ll1%
7 2 SunBelt Troy 458.1 113% 31.3 103% 390.2 106% 26.1 108% 108% 107% lll1%
6 4 Big12 Kansas St 336.6 091% 23.9 107% 382.5 100% 25.1 097% 099% 098% llll1%
4 5 Pac10 Arizona St 348.5 087% 20.9 072% 323.6 085% 20.4 077% 079% 081% lllll-2%
4 5 MAC Bowl Green 399.3 113% 24.3 104% 390.9 107% 28.4 116% 109% 112% m-3%
4 5 Pac10 UCLA 322.4 086% 20.3 079% 358.7 091% 23.0 078% 082% 085% mm-3%
5 4 CUSA Sou. Miss 403.3 099% 31.6 109% 386.0 103% 26.9 112% 104% 108% mmm-4%
4 6 ACC Wake Forest 384.7 108% 23.1 087% 382.4 104% 25.9 099% 098% 101% mmmm-4%
6 3 Pac10 California 393.6 106% 28.0 108% 400.9 119% 25.1 104% 107% 112% mmmmm-5%
5 4 ACC Duke 349.6 102% 25.3 102% 348.9 107% 24.9 109% 102% 108% n-6%
3 6 ACC Virginia 262.6 074% 21.8 095% 355.0 094% 25.0 086% 085% 090% nn-7%
5 5 Big12 Iowa St 356.2 104% 19.8 086% 407.7 114% 23.3 090% 095% 102% nnn-7%
6 3 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 421.4 099% 29.3 084% 370.7 099% 25.1 101% 091% 100% nnnn-9%
7 2 MAC Temple 302.1 082% 27.4 097% 326.3 094% 21.0 103% 089% 098% nnnnn-10%
4 5 CUSA Tulsa 391.5 098% 26.4 083% 401.8 102% 25.9 100% 090% 101% o-11%
5 5 Big10 Minnesota 311.8 094% 24.3 107% 397.1 109% 27.0 116% 100% 112% oo-12%
6 3 MAC Ohio 301.0 079% 24.0 085% 342.9 095% 21.9 089% 082% 092% ooo-13%
5 5 Big10 Michigan 368.1 099% 28.6 117% 413.0 114% 28.7 129% 108% 122% oooo-14%
3 6 BigEast Louisville 353.0 098% 17.6 078% 393.3 101% 28.5 099% 088% 100% ooooo-14%
5 4 CUSA SMU 373.9 091% 26.5 106% 367.6 097% 30.0 129% 099% 113% p-14%
3 6 MAC Buffalo 398.8 107% 21.8 086% 371.1 106% 29.0 117% 097% 111% pp-15%
5 4 SunBelt LA-Monroe 375.3 099% 24.0 092% 384.8 100% 31.4 120% 095% 110% ppp-15%
7 3 WAC Idaho 436.7 109% 30.8 112% 410.0 119% 31.1 132% 110% 126% pppp-15%
4 5 ACC NC State 398.9 111% 27.6 114% 393.4 110% 35.0 147% 112% 128% ppppp-16%
5 4 CUSA UCF 320.1 082% 21.0 070% 362.0 098% 20.6 077% 076% 087% q-17%
6 4 Big10 Northwestern 362.9 102% 22.3 087% 357.6 107% 24.3 117% 094% 112% qq-18%
3 7 MtnWest Colorado St 353.3 099% 21.4 090% 404.1 106% 32.1 119% 095% 112% qqq-18%
4 5 Big12 Baylor 332.9 096% 18.9 086% 413.9 114% 26.1 106% 091% 110% qqqq-19%
5 4 CUSA E Carolina 346.0 093% 23.5 087% 374.3 114% 21.6 103% 090% 109% qqqqq-20%
2 7 WAC Utah St 416.0 109% 24.9 092% 460.8 111% 33.0 130% 101% 121% r-20%
3 6 Big12 Colorado 302.9 081% 23.2 089% 380.8 098% 30.0 109% 085% 103% rr-21%
3 6 Big10 Illinois 347.0 099% 17.6 075% 395.1 108% 27.8 108% 087% 108% rrr-23%
3 6 WAC Hawaii 467.5 113% 24.5 079% 444.8 117% 34.9 128% 096% 122% rrrr-26%
4 6 Big10 Indiana 352.6 099% 24.7 109% 414.2 128% 30.2 136% 104% 132% rrrrr-29%
2 6 SunBelt Arkansas St 307.9 083% 17.9 076% 386.0 108% 22.9 098% 079% 103% s-29%
4 5 MtnWest San Diego St 325.4 094% 23.4 097% 383.9 108% 31.4 141% 096% 125% ss-29%
3 6 BigEast Syracuse 300.1 085% 17.8 077% 369.5 099% 29.0 115% 081% 107% sss-30%
5 4 CUSA Marshall 318.0 079% 19.5 068% 398.1 113% 20.1 085% 074% 099% ssss-35%
4 5 CUSA UAB 397.4 099% 28.2 090% 471.6 125% 32.9 133% 095% 129% sssss-35%
4 5 MAC Toledo 440.6 120% 28.6 105% 424.9 128% 37.4 172% 112% 150% t-37%
4 6 MAC W Michigan 360.9 095% 24.4 086% 457.4 124% 31.6 132% 091% 128% tt-39%
1 9 MAC Miami (OH) 344.2 096% 15.6 065% 377.3 104% 33.3 125% 080% 114% ttt-39%
2 7 ACC Maryland 313.0 084% 20.8 082% 387.0 107% 32.0 131% 083% 119% tttt-39%
4 6 MtnWest UNLV 341.1 091% 23.9 085% 471.7 117% 35.2 138% 088% 128% ttttt-41%
2 7 SunBelt North Texas 408.4 105% 28.0 094% 435.4 116% 38.3 166% 099% 141% u-41%
1 8 MAC Ball St 332.4 089% 21.1 073% 389.8 110% 29.6 130% 081% 120% uu-44%
2 7 CUSA Memphis 361.3 098% 19.5 084% 436.5 122% 35.6 147% 091% 135% uuu-44%
2 6 SunBelt Florida Atl 450.9 124% 27.0 093% 453.8 130% 37.0 178% 109% 154% uuuu-45%
5 5 MAC Kent St 347.1 086% 21.6 073% 372.8 116% 23.7 125% 080% 121% uuuuu-46%
2 8 SEC Vanderbilt 284.4 084% 13.6 052% 379.7 107% 25.0 101% 068% 104% v-51%
4 5 MtnWest Wyoming 286.6 079% 14.6 050% 388.0 103% 27.1 096% 064% 100% vv-55%
3 6 CUSA UTEP 390.1 093% 27.3 091% 467.3 125% 35.1 170% 092% 147% vvv-56%
2 7 SunBelt Florida Intl 329.8 083% 24.0 086% 488.4 136% 34.0 141% 084% 139% vvvv-57%
2 7 MAC Akron 273.5 075% 15.6 067% 386.0 110% 29.0 125% 071% 118% vvvvv-58%
3 6 Indy Army 274.0 072% 15.8 056% 287.8 091% 24.0 121% 064% 106% w-62%
5 4 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 329.8 080% 19.4 057% 393.8 112% 30.8 132% 068% 122% ww-68%
1 7 WAC San Jose St 259.6 070% 13.4 056% 502.9 116% 42.7 135% 063% 125% www-85%
3 6 CUSA Tulane 315.8 079% 13.8 047% 415.1 108% 38.1 145% 063% 127% wwww-86%
0 9 MtnWest New Mexico 309.4 083% 15.3 060% 429.4 122% 36.6 173% 072% 147% wwwww-87%
0 9 SunBelt W Kentucky 323.4 082% 22.1 077% 527.1 146% 46.6 190% 080% 168% x-93%
1 8 Pac10 Wash St 269.4 070% 14.1 053% 506.7 126% 38.6 141% 062% 133% xx-96%
0 9 MAC E Michigan 265.6 071% 15.7 060% 435.8 128% 38.8 164% 065% 146% xxx-99%
0 9 CUSA Rice 303.2 079% 16.3 062% 453.9 130% 43.9 199% 070% 165% xxxx-106%
3 6 WAC New Mex St 224.4 052% 10.6 030% 404.3 111% 31.4 126% 041% 118% xxxxx-162%

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Week 10 Rankings

Another Sunday night game, another late set of rankings. Power rankings tomorrow.

Of course Iowa drops from #1, making way for Alabama. Florida is close by, as are Cincinnati, Texas, and TCU. Iowa drops to #6, but they're still ahead of Boise State, mainly due to SoS. Other big movers this week are Ohio State, up eight spots to #9, Oregon and Penn State drop -5, and Navy moves up to #26 after winning at Notre Dame.

Mississippi State's tough as nails slate has moved them past Washington for #1 on the SoS, while spots #2, #3, and #4 are all Pac10 teams. In fact, half of the Pac10 is in the top 15 toughest SoS, and nine are in the top 30. At the bottom of the pack are the 0-9 teams - Rice, New Mexico, Eastern Michigan, and Western Kentucky.

I'm a week late with this, but congratulations to 7-2 Temple for earning their first votes in the polls since I can remember, at least during the BCS era. With their win this week, they've now garnered 8 more votes in the Coaches' and 7 more in the AP. It might seem small, but that's a big deal for a team that's been down for so long.

Week 10 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 SEC Alabama 339.75 9 0 100.0% 99.97 55 46 54.5% 4
2 SEC Florida 326.08 9 0 100.0% -129.53 52 51 50.5% 0
3 BigEast Cincinnati 320.98 9 0 100.0% -44.75 53 46 53.5% 0
4 Big12 Texas 314.90 9 0 100.0% 78.30 57 51 52.8% 0
5 MtnWest TCU 310.20 9 0 100.0% -554.66 50 53 48.5% 1
6 Big10 Iowa 299.72 9 1 90.0% 246.80 61 45 57.5% -5
7 WAC Boise St 296.78 9 0 100.0% -876.75 47 64 42.3% 0
8 ACC Georgia Tech 274.71 9 1 90.0% -126.35 52 51 50.5% 1
9 Big10 Ohio St 241.74 8 2 80.0% 558.38 66 49 57.4% 8
10 BigEast Pittsburgh 236.82 8 1 88.9% 230.69 58 41 58.6% 1
11 Pac10 USC 227.17 7 2 77.8% 563.59 58 49 54.2% 2
12 CUSA Houston 222.44 8 1 88.9% -865.29 44 57 43.6% 2
13 Pac10 Oregon 221.34 7 2 77.8% 864.29 64 44 59.3% -5
14 MtnWest Utah 195.84 8 1 88.9% -327.15 50 60 45.5% 1
15 Big10 Penn St 195.71 8 2 80.0% -114.54 57 50 53.3% -5
16 ACC Miami (FL) 191.56 7 2 77.8% 322.55 59 42 58.4% 0
17 SEC LSU 184.96 7 2 77.8% 513.51 61 49 55.5% -5
18 ACC Virginia Tech 166.44 6 3 66.7% 788.00 67 42 61.5% 8
19 Big10 Wisconsin 164.04 7 2 77.8% 155.65 61 48 56.0% 3
20 Big12 Oklahoma St 158.08 7 2 77.8% -2.18 55 46 54.5% 1
21 SunBelt Troy 150.40 7 2 77.8% -574.49 46 60 43.4% 8
22 Pac10 Arizona 150.37 6 2 75.0% 542.64 60 42 58.8% 5
23 MtnWest Brigham Young 149.33 7 2 77.8% -304.06 52 59 46.8% 5
24 MAC Central Michigan 142.47 7 2 77.8% -1183.89 41 61 40.2% -5
25 BigEast West Virginia 141.48 7 2 77.8% 322.74 59 40 59.6% -1
26 Indy Navy 136.28 7 3 70.0% -646.70 53 58 47.7% 11
27 SEC Auburn 132.09 7 3 70.0% 152.16 57 44 56.4% 3
28 BigEast South Florida 122.30 6 2 75.0% -285.69 51 42 54.8% -5
29 Pac10 Oregon St 120.28 6 3 66.7% 396.97 57 43 57.0% 11
30 ACC Clemson 118.21 6 3 66.7% 254.73 60 44 57.7% 6
31 WAC Idaho 108.91 7 3 70.0% -388.84 49 59 45.4% -13
32 MAC Temple 107.02 7 2 77.8% -1338.74 41 63 39.4% 3
33 WAC Fresno St 105.80 6 3 66.7% -224.16 53 48 52.5% 15
34 Pac10 Stanford 105.52 6 3 66.7% 390.82 55 52 51.4% 15
35 Indy Notre Dame 99.10 6 3 66.7% 573.96 62 50 55.4% -15
36 ACC Boston College 98.08 6 3 66.7% -158.10 53 49 52.0% -5
37 BigEast Rutgers 97.77 6 2 75.0% -556.49 47 45 51.1% -5
38 Big12 Texas Tech 95.01 6 3 66.7% -88.50 55 46 54.5% -5
39 Big12 Nebraska 91.81 6 3 66.7% -37.08 54 54 50.0% 2
40 Pac10 California 84.37 6 3 66.7% 25.39 51 49 51.0% -15
41 ACC North Carolina 82.97 6 3 66.7% -103.62 53 40 57.0% 2
42 SEC Mississippi 78.88 6 3 66.7% -293.12 51 45 53.1% 4
43 WAC Nevada 75.10 6 3 66.7% -289.15 52 58 47.3% 4
44 SEC South Carolina 68.12 6 4 60.0% 339.03 58 42 58.0% -10
45 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 66.05 6 3 66.7% -1056.97 39 67 36.8% 5
46 Big10 Northwestern 60.22 6 4 60.0% -544.98 49 58 45.8% 27
47 SEC Arkansas 55.76 5 4 55.6% 678.57 65 37 63.7% 14
48 MAC Northern Illinois 54.95 6 3 66.7% -1150.69 43 61 41.3% 6
49 Big12 Oklahoma 53.68 5 4 55.6% 605.51 66 36 64.7% -11
50 MtnWest Air Force 52.24 6 4 60.0% -347.38 54 51 51.4% 7
51 SEC Georgia 51.91 5 4 55.6% 680.04 66 39 62.9% 5
52 MAC Ohio 49.15 6 3 66.7% -1279.15 40 63 38.8% -7
53 Big12 Kansas St 44.62 6 4 60.0% -549.48 49 45 52.1% 7
54 SEC Tennessee 44.56 5 4 55.6% 360.21 61 50 55.0% 10
55 SEC Kentucky 42.36 5 4 55.6% 74.84 56 49 53.3% 8
56 CUSA East Carolina 28.42 5 4 55.6% -470.57 49 51 49.0% -14
57 Big12 Texas A&M 26.83 5 4 55.6% 47.67 56 54 50.9% -18
58 Big12 Missouri 26.83 5 4 55.6% 65.72 58 45 56.3% -14
59 CUSA Marshall 23.12 5 4 55.6% -428.24 49 51 49.0% 0
60 SunBelt LA-Monroe 16.54 5 4 55.6% -832.97 44 55 44.4% 11
61 CUSA UCF 16.39 5 4 55.6% -302.49 51 49 51.0% -9
62 CUSA SMU 9.27 5 4 55.6% -479.04 49 52 48.5% 8
63 Big10 Minnesota 9.10 5 5 50.0% 560.42 65 41 61.3% -10
64 Big10 Michigan St 7.33 5 5 50.0% 370.28 64 43 59.8% 12
65 Big12 Kansas 7.27 5 4 55.6% 40.18 58 44 56.9% -14
66 ACC Florida St 6.24 4 5 44.4% 722.00 66 36 64.7% -8
67 Big12 Iowa St 1.66 5 5 50.0% -15.26 58 45 56.3% -12
68 CUSA Southern Miss 1.32 5 4 55.6% -641.09 47 54 46.5% -1
69 SEC Mississippi St -3.53 4 5 44.4% 1177.21 73 30 70.9% 3
70 Pac10 UCLA -4.93 4 5 44.4% 667.20 61 47 56.5% 9
71 MAC Bowling Green -6.74 4 5 44.4% -289.56 55 55 50.0% 9
72 BigEast Connecticut -10.14 4 5 44.4% 586.14 64 34 65.3% -6
73 ACC Duke -14.34 5 4 55.6% -431.72 50 44 53.2% -11
74 SunBelt LA-Lafayette -20.70 5 4 55.6% -773.03 45 54 45.5% 7
75 Pac10 Washington -26.97 3 6 33.3% 1040.83 67 41 62.0% -7
76 Big10 Purdue -27.89 4 6 40.0% 560.56 66 48 57.9% 14
77 Big10 Michigan -28.47 5 5 50.0% 19.77 58 49 54.2% -12
78 CUSA UAB -35.54 4 5 44.4% -389.55 50 57 46.7% 8
79 Pac10 Arizona St -37.39 4 5 44.4% 346.91 56 44 56.0% -5
80 Big12 Baylor -37.43 4 5 44.4% 282.39 61 43 58.7% 8
81 ACC NC State -45.21 4 5 44.4% -214.85 53 42 55.8% 6
82 MAC Kent St -47.52 5 5 50.0% -1132.61 42 62 40.4% -13
83 MtnWest San Diego St -47.80 4 5 44.4% -322.10 55 50 52.4% -8
84 ACC Wake Forest -52.68 4 6 40.0% 304.03 60 42 58.8% -2
85 CUSA Tulsa -56.65 4 5 44.4% -771.98 45 55 45.0% -8
86 MtnWest Wyoming -56.90 4 5 44.4% -185.63 55 48 53.4% -8
87 MtnWest UNLV -79.87 4 6 40.0% -123.27 56 46 54.9% 13
88 Big10 Indiana -80.54 4 6 40.0% 27.13 59 49 54.6% -4
89 BigEast Louisville -83.05 3 6 33.3% 561.67 63 34 64.9% -4
90 MAC Toledo -84.49 4 5 44.4% -731.85 47 65 42.0% 5
91 MAC Western Michigan -92.67 4 6 40.0% -1381.53 41 64 39.0% -8
92 BigEast Syracuse -93.61 3 6 33.3% 541.62 64 37 63.4% 1
93 Big10 Illinois -103.75 3 6 33.3% 470.31 65 43 60.2% 14
94 WAC Louisiana Tech -107.50 3 6 33.3% 39.98 58 45 56.3% -2
95 Big12 Colorado -108.15 3 6 33.3% 545.33 66 45 59.5% 6
96 ACC Virginia -108.20 3 6 33.3% 678.27 66 36 64.7% -2
97 MAC Buffalo -113.02 3 6 33.3% -539.35 52 52 50.0% -8
98 CUSA Tulane -116.02 3 6 33.3% -366.55 52 48 52.0% 6
99 WAC Hawaii -117.51 3 6 33.3% -357.09 57 55 50.9% 10
100 CUSA UTEP -119.86 3 6 33.3% -365.94 51 57 47.2% -9
101 MtnWest Colorado St -126.75 3 7 30.0% -115.58 58 46 55.8% -5
102 Indy Army -129.90 3 6 33.3% -1067.99 44 58 43.1% -3
103 SunBelt Florida Atl -131.10 2 6 25.0% -565.06 49 59 45.4% -5
104 SunBelt Arkansas St -135.22 2 6 25.0% -683.88 47 53 47.0% -7
105 WAC New Mexico St -148.49 3 6 33.3% -593.73 52 58 47.3% -2
106 CUSA Memphis -167.28 2 7 22.2% -98.36 56 44 56.0% 0
107 SunBelt Florida Intl -168.79 2 7 22.2% 84.25 57 48 54.3% 3
108 WAC San Jose St -170.97 1 7 12.5% 172.33 60 42 58.8% 0
109 ACC Maryland -174.67 2 7 22.2% 50.65 56 44 56.0% -4
110 WAC Utah St -175.49 2 7 22.2% 11.88 58 43 57.4% -8
111 SunBelt North Texas -181.17 2 7 22.2% -628.28 48 58 45.3% 0
112 MAC Akron -190.20 2 7 22.2% -492.89 53 50 51.5% 2
113 SEC Vanderbilt -196.23 2 8 20.0% 261.47 59 43 57.8% -1
114 Pac10 Washington St -218.86 1 8 11.1% 830.62 63 44 58.9% -1
115 MAC Miami (OH) -238.28 1 9 10.0% 587.01 68 43 61.3% 0
116 MAC Ball St -304.80 1 8 11.1% -640.73 51 51 50.0% 3
117 CUSA Rice -305.94 0 9 0.0% 141.60 59 51 53.6% -1
118 MtnWest New Mexico -319.44 0 9 0.0% 313.00 63 48 56.8% -1
119 MAC Eastern Michigan -330.70 0 9 0.0% -457.64 55 57 49.1% -1
120 SunBelt Western Kentucky -359.66 0 9 0.0% -443.67 50 49 50.5% 0

The BigEast is padding their lead even more in the conference race, with each team earning over 73 points in their non-conference games. Spectacular. The SEC is a solid #2, while the Big10, Big12, and Pac10 are bunched together in spots 3-5.

Here's the breakdown at 2009 Non-Conference Games.

Week 10 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 73.48 BigEast 29 7 80.6% -4057.94 115 137 45.6%
2 61.17 SEC 35 6 85.4% -5036.67 123 173 41.6%
3 45.28 Big10 30 10 75.0% -3577.44 141 162 46.5%
4 41.07 Big12 35 13 72.9% -4428.32 165 202 45.0%
5 39.27 Pac10 20 9 69.0% -17.88 136 101 57.4%
6 28.13 ACC 29 15 65.9% -2827.70 173 118 59.5%
7 10.31 MtnWest 21 15 58.3% -2581.70 133 149 47.2%
8 -9.87 WAC 17 18 48.6% -1820.16 142 131 52.0%
9 -32.43 CUSA 19 29 39.6% -1034.91 210 154 57.7%
10 -58.23 MAC 16 36 30.8% -1592.89 229 187 55.0%
11 -62.64 SunBelt 8 25 24.2% 383.08 160 109 59.5%

(For the following, great & bad losses are ones that have earned or lost more than 50 points.)

#1 BigEast
Great Wins: Cincy @ 6-3 Oregon St
Bad Losses: None

#2 SEC
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

#3 Big10
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

#4 Big12
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: Colorado vs 3-7 Colorado St

#5 Pac10
Great Wins: USC @ 8-2 Ohio State, Oregon @ 8-1 Utah
Bad Losses: Washington State vs 3-6 Hawaii

#6 ACC
Great Wins: NC State vs 8-1 Pittsburgh, Florida State @ 7-2 BYU
Bad Losses: Virginia vs I-AA William & Mary, Duke vs I-AA Richmond

#7 MtnWest
Great Wins: TCU @ 6-3 Clemson
Bad Losses: New Mexico vs 3-6 New Mexico State

#8 WAC
Great Wins: Boise State @ 7-2 Oregon
Bad Losses: New Mexico State vs 3-6 UTEP

#9 CUSA
Great Wins: Houston @ 7-2 Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: SMU @ 1-8 Washington St, Rice vs 2-8 Vanderbilt

#10 MAC
Great Wins: Temple @ 7-3 Navy
Bad Losses: Ball State vs I-AA New Hampshire, Temple vs I-AA Villanova, Ball State vs 2-7 North Texas, Eastern Michigan vs 3-6 Army

#11 SunBelt
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: Western Kentucky vs I-AA Central Arkansas

Friday, November 6, 2009

Week 10 Predictions

Northwestern @ Iowa (-16.5)

The Hawkeyes know they need to start bringing it bigger if they're gonna have any shot at the title game. This is a good opportunity for them to gain some style points with the voters.

The Call: Iowa by 21
The Result: Northwestern 17-10

And the Hawkeyes fall off the high wire. They still have a shot at the Big10 title if they can beat Ohio State next week, but the way things are looking a title shot is out.
_________________________________

South Carolina @ Arkansas (-7)

I've got a good feeling that the visor is going to be safe this week.

The Call: South Carolina by 7
The Result: Arkansas 33-16

Run, visor! Run!
_________________________________

Kansas (-2.5) @ Kansas State

I know the Wildcats are 5-4 and atop the Big12 North, but they don't have a single decent win. Not one. They also have horrible losses to UCLA and LA-Lafayette. The Jayhawks are floundering with three straight losses, but they should do better in this one.

The Call: Kansas by 10
The Result: Kansas State 17-10

I'm not sure this counts as a decent win, but a W is a W. Kansas is really struggling right now - the way they're going they might not make a bowl.
_________________________________

Navy (+12.5) @ Notre Dame

The Irish can just taste that BCS bowl bid now...

The Call: Notre Dame by 17
The Result: Navy 23-21

...and it tastes like failure. Bitter, bitter failure.
_________________________________

Oregon @ Stanford (+7)

Not to harp on last week, but after the way they dismantled the Trojans, I'm not sure anybody could beat the Ducks right now.

The Call: Oregon by 14
The Result: Stanford 51-42

Except for Stanford. The Ducks still control their own destiny in the Pac10, and they're still solid (mostly), but damn. The Cardinal are now 6-3, and with USC, Cal & Notre Dame left, they can either tail off or finish strong. I think this game should serve as a major warning to all three of those teams.
_________________________________

Duke (+10) @ North Carolina

It's balls-to-the-wall time in this one.

The Call: Duke by 3
The Result: North Carolina 19-6

C'mon, Dookies. You're almost there!
_________________________________

LSU (+7.5) @ Alabama

The Tide need to sorta maybe kinda need to get their offense back on track, but the Tigers need an offense period - I'd be surprised if they reached double digits. As usual, they're gonna need some points/excellent field position from their defense to keep this one close.

The Call: Alabama by 14
The Result: Alabama 24-15

It was a good start for the Tigers, but Bama's just too deep and relentless.
_________________________________

Ohio State @ Penn State (-5)

I'm still not sold on the Nittany Lions as a top ten team. But I know the Buckeyes aren't one.

The Call: Penn State by 7
The Result: Ohio State 24-7

Well, we know Penn State isn't top ten material either. With the upsets today, the Bucks are looking better and better...
_________________________________

TCU (-24.5) @ San Diego State

It's not gonna be pretty (unless you're a Horned Frog)

The Call: TCU by 31
The Result: TCU 55-12

Yeah, that one was a bit easy, I know.
_________________________________

Oregon State @ California (-7)

These two are fighting tooth and nail in the Pac10... I like the Beaver's chances away from home.

The Call: Oregon State by 4
The Result: Oregon State 31-14

It's going to be one hell of a finish in the Pac10 this year. Jeez.
_________________________________

Houston @ Tulsa (+1.5)

The Cougars have dropped off people's radar since their loss to UTEP, but they're still a powerful team.

The Call: Houston by 14
The Result: Houston 46-45

The Golden Hurricanes gave the Cougars all they could handle. Good for them for beating the spread.
_________________________________

Oklahoma @ Nebraska (-4.5)

Really looking forward to seeing how the Sooners' offense does against the blackshirts. I think it'll be low scoring, and the Cornhusker offense will give it up.

The Call: Oklahoma by 3
The Result: Nebraska 10-3

Well, the Cornhusker offense didn't lose it, which was good. But that D... wow. When was the last time the Sooners were held to that low a total? To answer my own question, it looks like the last time they were in single digits was when Kansas State whupped them in the Big12 Championship in 2003. Nebraska is turning into a huge roadblock for Texas...
_________________________________

UConn (+17) @ Cincinnati

The Husky D is porous, but their offense can put up the points. They won't win, but they might be able to make it a game...

The Call: Cincinnati wins, but UConn covers the spread
The Result: Cincinnati 47-45

The Bearcats are just ridiculously effective on offense. Their D is usually stellar too, but tonight they were just off. They should be able to get things back on track though. Props to UConn for another tough game.
_________________________________

USC (-10) @ Arizona State

The Trojans' last road game of the season, and they need to make up ground quickly if they want to possibly grab an at-large BCS spot. The Sun Devils need to finish 2-2 against USC, Oregon, Arizona, and UCLA to become bowl eligible, so they'll need at least one upset plus a victory over the Bruins. They won't get it this week though - Trojans get back to form.

The Call: USC by 17
The Result: USC 14-9

It's been a wild ride of a season for the Trojans with their Freshman QB, road games, injuries (freakish and otherwise) galore. If they can hang on they might just end up in a BCS bowl. But they're not looking like a top ten team right now, even though they'll probably move up this week. The Sun Devils played well, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but those TO's killed them.