Sunday, September 20, 2009

Rankings: Week 3

Definitely have a lot more data for the conference race, but...

Week 3 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 40.20 SEC 19 2 90.5% -842.72 20 31 39.2%
2 38.95 Big10 24 8 75.0% -886.24 37 47 44.0%
3 38.42 BigEast 16 5 76.2% -725.86 23 25 47.9%
4 37.78 Pac10 19 6 76.0% -238.66 36 32 52.9%
5 30.83 Big12 23 9 71.9% -875.92 35 45 43.8%
6 13.79 ACC 17 10 63.0% -574.45 37 24 60.7%
7 9.29 MtnWest 14 10 58.3% -786.15 26 33 44.1%
8 -3.46 CUSA 13 13 50.0% -822.56 30 34 46.9%
9 -17.49 WAC 8 13 38.1% -179.38 32 24 57.1%
10 -28.25 SunBelt 8 16 33.3% -38.35 39 25 60.9%
11 -34.60 MAC 11 25 30.6% 76.64 62 32 66.0%

Hmmm... four conferences bunched at the top, all within 2.5 points of each other. But this is still week 3 - let's examine these to see if those points are gonna get higher or lower.

#1 SEC: A perfect weekend for the SEC - 6-0 in nonconf play. But there was probably only one decent win among them, Auburn over West Virginia. The rest were another win over the BigEast, 3 wins over the SunBelt, and a win over a I-AA cupcake. Their BCS opponents (West Virginia, Louisville, UCLA, NC State, Virginia Tech, & Washington) will probably cancel each other out, while their nonconf opponents and I-AA cupcakes will probably drag them down a bit as the season goes on.

#2 Big10: They took a bit of a hit this week, going 6-4 against so-so competition. Some of their losses don't look to bad, Cal & Notre Dame, but none of their wins look like they'll help in the long run. Overall, they're 5-6 against BCS teams, which isn't great. The only decent wins were over Notre Dame and proably Air Force, though some of their losses (USC, Oregon, Cal) aren't too bad. The cupcakes & losses to Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are gonna hurt.

#3 BigEast: A solid 6-2 this week with wins over Baylor & Oregon State which may help. The loss to Auburn won't be too bad, but losing to Kentucky could bring them down. The conference is perfect against the cupcakes & non-BCS teams, going 13-0 (of which only the win over East Carolina might be good), but they're only 3-5 against BCS teams. Their losses to Penn State, Auburn, & North Carolina won't be too bad, but Minnesota could hurt.

#4 Pac10: USC's loss to Washington doesn't play into nonconference games, but it's a huge boost to the other 9 teams. A solid 6-2 this week, notching what should be a good win over Utah. They're 6-4 against BCS teams, and overall their losses shouldn't hurt much (LSU, Iowa, Wake Forest, Cincinnati). The Ohio State win is looking good, but that's about it. Of their 2 non-BCS losses, Boise State won't hurt while Hawaii probably will. No real great non-BCS wins besides Utah, but only 3 I-AA cupcakes will hurt them later. Overall, they're SoS is the best of the BCS confs.

#5 Big12: 7-3 this weekend, which is okay but not going to help them make up any ground. They're 4-4 against BCS teams, but just 13-5 against non-BCS teams, losing to Toledo (ouch), LA-Lafayette (double-ouch), BYU (won't hurt), Colorado St (eh), and Houston (we'll see). Wins over Georgia & probably Wake Forest are solid, but that's about it. They need to notch some upsets to get back towards the top.

#6 ACC: The dropoff starts with the ACC. Against BCS, non-BCS, and I-AA teams they're 3-5, 6-3, 8-2, respectively. Not good. Only North Carolina and Miami are undefeated still, and Florida State notched a good win over BYU, but that's about it.

#7 MtnWest: Sorry guys, you're not doing your cause any good this year. 3-8 against the BCS teams is the best of the non-BCS conferences, but it's still way below where you need to be. The win over Oklahoma is looking great, but that's your only decent one this year. Losses to Idaho and Tulsa hurt, the 5 I-AA cupcake wins will drag you down, and some of the BCS losses (Texas A&M, Colorado, Oregon State) are looking to sink you a bit too.

#8 CUSA: 13-13 is .500, but 2-9 against the BCS teams hurts. 7-0 against the cupcakes... at least you haven't lost to any.

#9 WAC, #10 SunBelt, #11 MAC: Sorry, gents - you're at the bottom and will probably stay there.

Overall, the I-AA cupcakes are just 5-61 against I-A teams, going 1-11 this weekend, while the non-BCS teams are 12-57 against BCS teams (17.4%). Home-field advantage is at 73.1%, which is still normal.

Looking at the teams, Cincinnati is on top with a couple of good wins over Rutgers & Oregon State. Toughest schedules reside in the Pacific northwest, with Washington, Washington State, and Oregon holding down the fort.

Week 3 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 BigEast Cincinnati 101.38 3 0 100.0% -5.10 18 14 56.3% 10
2 SEC LSU 98.26 3 0 100.0% 293.01 22 11 66.7% 2
3 Big10 Iowa 95.20 3 0 100.0% 300.14 24 9 72.7% 7
4 SEC Auburn 91.73 3 0 100.0% 89.88 19 12 61.3% 23
5 Big12 Texas 91.67 3 0 100.0% 175.97 21 13 61.8% -3
6 WAC Boise St 91.25 3 0 100.0% -423.84 12 23 34.3% 16
7 Pac10 California 89.62 3 0 100.0% 168.58 21 12 63.6% 22
8 ACC North Carolina 88.78 3 0 100.0% -130.83 16 14 53.3% 5
9 Pac10 UCLA 86.65 3 0 100.0% 206.22 21 14 60.0% -6
10 SEC Alabama 86.39 3 0 100.0% 193.14 19 10 65.5% 9
11 BigEast Pittsburgh 84.02 3 0 100.0% 99.37 20 13 60.6% -2
12 Big10 Indiana 83.67 3 0 100.0% 66.94 20 13 60.6% 25
13 Big12 Kansas 83.64 3 0 100.0% 99.81 21 13 61.8% 5
14 Big10 Michigan 83.36 3 0 100.0% 115.48 20 12 62.5% 10
15 MtnWest Colorado St 81.76 3 0 100.0% -211.80 15 18 45.5% 5
16 Big10 Wisconsin 80.34 3 0 100.0% 152.45 22 13 62.9% 10
17 Big10 Penn St 79.71 3 0 100.0% 73.91 19 12 61.3% 11
18 CUSA Southern Miss 77.94 3 0 100.0% -192.00 15 17 46.9% 14
19 Big12 Missouri 77.89 3 0 100.0% -8.70 17 14 54.8% 2
20 BigEast South Florida 76.93 3 0 100.0% -69.15 18 14 56.3% -4
21 SEC Florida 76.50 3 0 100.0% -14.46 17 15 53.1% 14
22 ACC Miami (FL) 69.96 2 0 100.0% 153.06 21 12 63.6% 18
23 CUSA Houston 62.84 2 0 100.0% -104.62 17 16 51.5% -11
24 SEC Kentucky 58.91 2 0 100.0% 51.46 19 14 57.6% 17
25 SEC Mississippi 57.10 2 0 100.0% -53.74 18 13 58.1% 17
26 MtnWest TCU 54.66 2 0 100.0% -131.08 17 17 50.0% 17
27 Big12 Texas A&M 50.98 2 0 100.0% -60.57 16 17 48.5% 17
28 Pac10 Arizona St 49.95 2 0 100.0% 193.52 22 13 62.9% 19
29 BigEast Connecticut 40.74 2 1 66.7% 323.21 23 8 74.2% 24
30 ACC Clemson 39.63 2 1 66.7% 48.39 19 13 59.4% 22
31 SEC Georgia 38.95 2 1 66.7% 294.50 22 8 73.3% 29
32 ACC Virginia Tech 37.39 2 1 66.7% 168.33 21 14 60.0% 22
33 CUSA Tulsa 36.65 2 1 66.7% -158.59 15 16 48.4% -32
34 SEC South Carolina 36.62 2 1 66.7% 145.26 19 10 65.5% 15
35 Pac10 USC 36.26 2 1 66.7% 313.29 23 12 65.7% -30
36 Pac10 Washington 33.66 2 1 66.7% 506.62 26 9 74.3% 41
37 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 32.65 2 1 66.7% -287.67 12 21 36.4% 31
38 Pac10 Oregon 32.21 2 1 66.7% 440.56 25 10 71.4% 17
39 WAC Idaho 32.20 2 1 66.7% -71.25 16 18 47.1% 11
40 Pac10 Stanford 31.98 2 1 66.7% 312.16 23 12 65.7% 11
41 Big10 Minnesota 31.94 2 1 66.7% 222.40 22 10 68.8% -33
42 MtnWest Utah 31.59 2 1 66.7% -60.46 16 17 48.5% -36
43 MAC Northern Illinois 31.48 2 1 66.7% -374.47 13 21 38.2% 22
44 SEC Mississippi St 31.14 2 1 66.7% 426.11 24 6 80.0% 35
45 WAC Hawaii 31.04 2 1 66.7% -246.85 16 20 44.4% -28
46 Big12 Oklahoma 30.70 2 1 66.7% 267.44 22 10 68.8% 24
47 ACC Florida St 30.70 2 1 66.7% 285.45 24 10 70.6% 48
48 Pac10 Arizona 30.51 2 1 66.7% 353.62 24 9 72.7% -23
49 Pac10 Oregon St 29.45 2 1 66.7% 353.58 24 9 72.7% -34
50 MtnWest Brigham Young 29.45 2 1 66.7% -6.68 17 16 51.5% -43
51 MAC Central Michigan 28.97 2 1 66.7% -444.18 12 23 34.3% -3
52 ACC Georgia Tech 28.92 2 1 66.7% 42.77 19 15 55.9% -18
53 MtnWest Air Force 27.92 2 1 66.7% -78.36 18 16 52.9% 10
54 Big12 Nebraska 27.90 2 1 66.7% 183.48 20 13 60.6% -31
55 Indy Notre Dame 27.32 2 1 66.7% 149.63 20 15 57.1% 1
56 Big10 Ohio St 27.10 2 1 66.7% 340.22 24 11 68.6% 31
57 Big12 Oklahoma St 26.18 2 1 66.7% 184.66 20 10 66.7% 31
58 CUSA SMU 25.27 2 1 66.7% -268.14 13 18 41.9% -44
59 BigEast West Virginia 25.07 2 1 66.7% 215.49 22 11 66.7% -28
60 Big12 Iowa St 24.97 2 1 66.7% 157.45 21 11 65.6% 32
61 CUSA UCF 24.92 2 1 66.7% -82.99 16 15 51.6% 5
62 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 24.37 2 1 66.7% -303.37 12 19 38.7% -29
63 MAC Ohio 24.04 2 1 66.7% -500.24 10 23 30.3% -4
64 Big12 Texas Tech 23.74 2 1 66.7% 45.60 18 13 58.1% -28
65 ACC Boston College 23.53 2 1 66.7% -6.94 19 15 55.9% -35
66 CUSA Marshall 23.26 2 1 66.7% -165.08 16 17 48.5% 17
67 MtnWest UNLV 21.71 2 1 66.7% -55.30 17 15 53.1% 24
68 ACC Wake Forest 21.68 2 1 66.7% 30.40 18 14 56.3% 18
69 Big10 Northwestern 17.89 2 1 66.7% -28.84 18 15 54.5% -31
70 BigEast Rutgers 17.73 2 1 66.7% -24.25 18 12 60.0% 23
71 Indy Army 17.38 2 1 66.7% -471.24 10 21 32.3% 13
72 ACC NC State 14.40 2 1 66.7% 51.04 20 12 62.5% 25
73 Big12 Baylor 4.66 1 1 50.0% 257.22 23 10 69.7% -34
74 BigEast Louisville -2.10 1 1 50.0% 356.36 24 8 75.0% -29
75 Big10 Illinois -2.42 1 1 50.0% 275.88 24 10 70.6% 0
76 SunBelt Arkansas St -3.55 1 1 50.0% -255.10 13 18 41.9% 2
77 SEC Arkansas -9.64 1 1 50.0% 323.73 23 9 71.9% -32
78 MAC Bowling Green -24.90 1 2 33.3% -123.65 17 19 47.2% -20
79 Indy Navy -25.14 1 2 33.3% -137.19 18 17 51.4% -5
80 MAC Western Michigan -25.66 1 2 33.3% -292.10 14 19 42.4% 24
81 MAC Buffalo -26.46 1 2 33.3% -279.21 14 19 42.4% -17
82 SunBelt North Texas -27.93 1 2 33.3% -205.75 14 19 42.4% -1
83 Big12 Kansas St -28.23 1 2 33.3% 171.03 22 8 73.3% -21
84 CUSA East Carolina -28.66 1 2 33.3% 48.39 20 14 58.8% -15
85 SunBelt LA-Monroe -28.82 1 2 33.3% -153.03 14 15 48.3% -12
86 MtnWest San Diego St -28.97 1 2 33.3% 51.99 20 13 60.6% -15
87 BigEast Syracuse -29.18 1 2 33.3% 343.02 24 8 75.0% 21
88 ACC Duke -30.47 1 2 33.3% 61.60 20 10 66.7% -3
89 SunBelt Troy -31.87 1 2 33.3% -220.24 13 19 40.6% 16
90 SEC Tennessee -32.43 1 2 33.3% 372.85 24 10 70.6% 0
91 Big10 Purdue -32.56 1 2 33.3% 336.87 24 11 68.6% -34
92 WAC Fresno St -33.46 1 2 33.3% -72.83 16 15 51.6% -31
93 MAC Akron -34.84 1 2 33.3% -152.44 16 17 48.5% -13
94 SEC Vanderbilt -35.02 1 2 33.3% 194.32 21 11 65.6% -27
95 ACC Maryland -35.03 1 2 33.3% 50.03 20 14 58.8% -19
96 WAC Louisiana Tech -35.16 1 2 33.3% -112.91 16 17 48.5% 10
97 Big10 Michigan St -35.77 1 2 33.3% 255.24 23 10 69.7% -1
98 CUSA Memphis -36.50 1 2 33.3% 48.62 19 13 59.4% 17
99 CUSA UTEP -36.91 1 2 33.3% 15.44 18 16 52.9% 19
100 MAC Kent St -37.43 1 2 33.3% -408.22 11 21 34.4% -18
101 Pac10 Washington St -37.80 1 2 33.3% 503.94 26 9 74.3% 16
102 Big12 Colorado -38.05 1 2 33.3% 378.61 25 10 71.4% 10
103 CUSA UAB -39.81 1 2 33.3% -16.76 17 16 51.5% -14
104 MAC Toledo -40.26 1 2 33.3% -437.92 10 24 29.4% -32
105 MtnWest Wyoming -42.97 1 2 33.3% -29.00 18 15 54.5% -11
106 WAC New Mexico St -49.89 1 2 33.3% -367.96 13 22 37.1% -8
107 SunBelt Florida Intl -52.54 0 2 0.0% -61.35 17 17 50.0% -7
108 WAC Nevada -52.66 0 2 0.0% 104.36 20 15 57.1% -6
109 WAC Utah St -52.94 0 2 0.0% -119.30 16 16 50.0% -10
110 SunBelt Florida Atl -54.06 0 2 0.0% -218.45 14 20 41.2% -9
111 CUSA Tulane -67.01 0 2 0.0% 175.37 21 11 65.6% 5
112 MAC Temple -67.58 0 2 0.0% -397.57 13 21 38.2% -9
113 MAC Eastern Michigan -86.00 0 3 0.0% -143.57 16 18 47.1% 0
114 WAC San Jose St -87.37 0 3 0.0% -92.47 16 16 50.0% -5
115 CUSA Rice -88.23 0 3 0.0% -32.95 17 17 50.0% -8
116 MAC Miami (OH) -90.95 0 3 0.0% 102.66 19 15 55.9% -5
117 MtnWest New Mexico -93.83 0 3 0.0% 236.63 22 12 64.7% -7
118 ACC Virginia -100.66 0 3 0.0% 367.74 24 8 75.0% 1
119 MAC Ball St -107.25 0 3 0.0% -150.13 16 17 48.5% 1
120 SunBelt Western Kentucky -112.51 0 3 0.0% -220.31 14 18 43.8% -6

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