Monday, May 5, 2008

Factors of Dropping in the Polls, 1998-2008

0 - Base Numbers AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
Losses by Top 25 teams 1,028 -07.9 1,041 -07.7

1 - Upset? AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
U 656 -09.1 671 -08.6
notU 372 -05.7 370 -05.9

2 - Margin of Loss AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
-3 or less 241 -07.0 244 -06.8
-4 to -8 252 -07.2 258 -07.0
-9 to -16 212 -07.5 215 -07.6
-17 or more 323 -09.3 324 -08.9

3 - Month AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
Sept 252 -10.6 250 -10.3
Oct 317 -08.2 327 -07.9
Nov 329 -06.6 330 -06.6
Bowl 130 -04.9 134 -04.9

4 - Location AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
vs 325 -08.5 322 -08.1
v 187 -05.4 192 -05.4
@ 516 -08.3 527 -08.2

5 - Number of Losses AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
1 367 -08.2 364 -08.0
2 319 -08.4 331 -08.2
3 211 -07.1 220 -06.9
4 111 -06.9 106 -06.5
5 20 -07.9 20 -06.5

6 - Overtime AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
no OT 957 -07.9 969 -07.7
OT 71 -07.3 72 -07.0

7 - in BCS Conf? AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
BCS 948 -07.8 954 -07.6
non 80 -09.3 87 -08.5

8 - Opp. in BCS Conf? AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
BCS 937 -07.6 945 -07.5
non 91 -10.4 96 -09.6

9 - Conference AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
ACC 149 -08.2 149 -07.7
Big10 176 -07.9 186 -07.8
Big12 166 -06.9 168 -06.9
BigEast 88 -08.7 89 -08.2
Pac10 126 -07.9 125 -07.7
SEC 219 -07.3 216 -07.4
CUSA 22 -10.1 21 -08.1
Indy 25 -08.8 21 -08.1
MAC 10 -09.2 14 -09.4
MtnWest 24 -09.5 28 -08.9
WAC 23 -08.3 24 -08.0

10 - Opp. Conference AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
ACC 144 -08.7 141 -08.1
Big10 175 -08.0 180 -07.9
Big12 150 -06.6 153 -06.7
BigEast 86 -07.5 88 -07.5
Pac10 143 -07.7 142 -07.3
SEC 224 -07.1 225 -07.1
BigWest 1 -11.0 1 -10.0
CUSA 24 -10.4 23 -08.5
Indy 17 -10.9 20 -10.9
MAC 15 -11.1 17 -09.4
MtnWest 26 -10.8 28 -10.5
SunBelt 1 -11.0 1 -14.0
WAC 22 -09.5 22 -09.2

11 - Conference Game? AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
conf 698 -07.8 710 -07.5
nonconf 330 -08.0 331 -07.9

12 - Team Rank AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
1 thru 5 147 -05.7 148 -05.8
6 thru 10 183 -06.8 176 -06.8
11 thru 15 204 -07.4 224 -07.3
16 thru 20 240 -08.0 233 -07.9
21 thru 25 254 -10.2 260 -09.4

13 - Opp. Rank AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
1 thru 5 180 -04.6 182 -05.0
6 thru 10 136 -05.6 137 -06.1
11 thru 15 102 -06.6 102 -06.4
16 thru 20 96 -07.2 97 -07.3
21 thru 25 63 -07.7 66 -07.4
25 plus 186 -09.9 213 -09.3
Not Ranked 265 -10.6 244 -09.8

14 - Preseason Rank AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
1 thru 5 119 -06.4 128 -06.7
6 thru 10 153 -08.0 141 -07.7
11 thru 15 134 -07.4 154 -07.3
16 thru 20 129 -09.0 117 -09.2
21 thru 25 114 -09.2 123 -08.7
25 plus 265 -07.5 293 -07.4
Not Ranked 114 -08.1 85 -06.8

15 - # Wins Prev. Year AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
0-6 186 -07.4 176 -07.0
7 149 -07.7 149 -07.4
8 158 -08.2 170 -07.8
9 202 -08.4 208 -08.4
10 134 -07.7 139 -07.6
11 129 -08.2 126 -07.9
12+ 70 -06.9 73 -06.8

16 - # Wins Prev. 3 Yrs AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
0-9 11 -06.9 9 -07.0
10-14 40 -08.4 38 -07.8
15-19 148 -07.5 147 -07.0
20-24 343 -08.5 346 -08.1
25-29 297 -07.9 309 -07.9
30-34 169 -07.0 172 -07.0
35+ 20 -06.5 20 -07.1

17 - Opp. # Wins Prev. Year AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
0-6 266 -10.0 266 -09.2
7 138 -08.6 142 -08.3
8 141 -08.2 138 -07.8
9 156 -06.8 158 -07.2
10 124 -06.7 130 -06.9
11 130 -06.0 135 -06.0
12+ 73 -05.8 72 -05.6

18 - Opp. # Wins Prev. 3 Yrs AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
0-9 32 -11.8 32 -09.5
10-14 69 -09.8 73 -09.1
15-19 165 -09.1 165 -08.4
20-24 305 -08.4 299 -08.3
25-29 233 -07.4 244 -07.4
30-34 193 -05.7 200 -05.8
35+ 31 -04.3 28 -04.9

19 - # Weeks Ranked in Spot AP games avg. drop Co games avg. drop
1 474 -08.9 490 -08.6
2 249 -07.7 258 -07.5
3 129 -07.3 121 -07.1
4 73 -06.3 67 -06.5
5 33 -05.8 35 -05.7
6+ 46 -06.3 43 -05.5
11+ 24 -03.5 27 -04.4

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