Sunday, December 7, 2008

Final Regular Season Rankings

And Voila! Once again, that's how you design a computer ranking system to work. Oklahoma & Florida, #1 & #2. When it comes to straight achievement, these two did the most this season. USC jumps to #3 after easily holding down UCLA, while Utah & Texas round out the top five. Toughest SoS this year belongs to Virginia by far. 11-1 Pac10 Champ USC, 9-4 CUSA Champ East Carolina, and 7-5 UConn plus their ACC schedule - brutal. In fact, the ACC holds down most of the "toughest SoS" spots - 8 of their teams are in the top 13. As a conference they went 37-11 and were by far the most balanced conference this season. But more on that later... I'll be posting more frequently with a bunch of end-of-the-regular-season statistics, bowl matchups, and essays in the upcoming month, so stop by.

A few quick other thoughts...

With all the bitching and moaning of the last few weeks about the BCS, you can't deny that the two teams playing for the championship, Oklahoma & Florida, are extremely deserving. It's not like 2001 when people thought Nebraska was undeserving, or 2003 when they felt Oklahoma was undeserving - both the Sooners & Gators won their conference championships and have been playing the best football in the country the last few weeks. Are other teams deserving of a shot at the title? Sure, some of them - Texas, USC, and Penn State could all make arguments. But is Oklahoma or Florida undeserving? No, of course not. So take that to heart.

In the whole Texas-Oklahoma debacle of the last week, there's been a lot of talk that the Big12 should change their tiebreaker rules, and they've even indicated that they're going to look at the process in the offseason. They've said that the BCS tiebreak was designed to put the team in that had the best chance to play in the national championship game, and this year it worked. In fact, it worked so well that had Oklahoma lost to Missouri, Texas probably would have slid into the #2 spot. So in reality, the rule, while unfair to some of the teams involved, is of great benefit to the conference as a whole. They should really think about that when deciding whether or not to change it.

The BCS honchos should be sending thank you cards and flowers to Oregon right now. Try this one on for size - if the Ducks hadn't beaten the Beavers last week, then Oregon State would've gone to the Rose Bowl to play Penn State, and the Fiesta probably would've matched up Texas with USC. That would've been huge because with a win over the powerful Trojans (combined with a win by Oklahoma over Florida), Mack Brown would have been able to push their banner of the 45-35 win over Oklahoma even harder, probably convincing some pollsters that Texas deserved a piece of a split title. And they might have gotten it too. As it is, Texas is probably going to play Utah or Ohio State, and a win over the Utes or Buckeyes won't impress people nearly as much as a win over USC would. So the Ducks saved a lot more BCS headaches.

Onto the rankings!

Week 15 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 Big12 Oklahoma 669.95 12 1 92.3% 1361.99 101 60 62.7% 00
2 SEC Florida 608.65 12 1 92.3% 1282.57 99 62 61.5% 03
3 Pac10 USC 524.54 11 1 91.7% 291.05 80 77 51.0% 07
4 MtnWest Utah 518.79 12 0 100.0% -387.74 75 72 51.0% -01
5 Big12 Texas 514.27 11 1 91.7% 1403.08 96 62 60.8% -03
6 Big10 Penn State 512.56 11 1 91.7% 99.41 76 69 52.4% 02
7 WAC Boise State 473.29 12 0 100.0% -772.56 73 74 49.7% 00
8 SEC Alabama 455.34 12 1 92.3% 392.59 90 79 53.3% -04
9 Big12 Texas Tech 453.21 11 1 91.7% 52.60 76 60 55.9% -03
10 BigEast Cincinnati 407.70 11 2 84.6% 213.29 85 76 52.8% 02
11 Big10 Ohio State 382.91 10 2 83.3% 817.35 89 56 61.4% 00
12 ACC Virginia Tech 362.97 9 4 69.2% 1383.09 96 65 59.6% 07
13 MAC Ball State 336.86 12 1 92.3% -1549.12 71 89 44.4% -04
14 ACC Georgia Tech 284.50 9 3 75.0% 549.08 77 59 56.6% -01
15 BigEast Pittsburgh 281.46 9 3 75.0% 1066.85 92 66 58.2% 07
16 MtnWest TCU 273.97 10 2 83.3% 74.17 81 65 55.5% -02
17 ACC Boston College 257.57 9 4 69.2% 1040.47 90 69 56.6% -02
18 ACC North Carolina 240.79 8 4 66.7% 1109.02 84 63 57.1% -02
19 SEC Georgia 235.18 9 3 75.0% 953.90 91 56 61.9% -02
20 MtnWest Brigham Young 225.22 10 2 83.3% -1069.94 65 80 44.8% -02
21 CUSA East Carolina 222.90 9 4 69.2% -187.22 82 88 48.2% 16
22 Big10 Michigan State 222.16 9 3 75.0% 648.85 87 69 55.8% -02
23 ACC Florida State 221.95 8 4 66.7% 1057.37 85 53 61.6% 00
24 Big12 Oklahoma State 217.31 9 3 75.0% 542.31 84 64 56.8% -03
25 Pac10 Oregon 207.82 9 3 75.0% 52.16 78 79 49.7% -01
26 Big12 Missouri 196.73 9 4 69.2% 694.35 92 67 57.9% 00
27 Pac10 Oregon State 189.58 8 4 66.7% 855.92 90 68 57.0% 00
28 CUSA Tulsa 181.33 10 3 76.9% -1510.87 67 92 42.1% -03
29 SEC Mississippi 180.39 8 4 66.7% 594.34 86 61 58.5% -01
30 MAC Western Michigan 164.19 9 3 75.0% -742.29 73 75 49.3% 01
31 Big10 Northwestern 161.75 9 3 75.0% -479.49 69 77 47.3% -02
32 CUSA Rice 160.87 9 3 75.0% -825.06 71 86 45.2% -02
33 Pac10 California 159.96 8 4 66.7% 271.74 80 77 51.0% 01
34 Big10 Iowa 155.93 8 4 66.7% 11.63 78 67 53.8% -02
35 Big12 Nebraska 154.48 8 4 66.7% 906.44 89 70 56.0% -02
36 BigEast West Virginia 150.24 8 4 66.7% 408.96 80 67 54.4% 08
37 ACC Wake Forest 146.07 7 5 58.3% 1311.27 87 70 55.4% -02
38 Indy Navy 143.97 8 4 66.7% -125.78 75 71 51.4% 03
39 ACC Maryland 134.97 7 5 58.3% 825.03 82 65 55.8% -03
40 ACC Clemson 129.31 7 5 58.3% 822.09 82 56 59.4% -01
41 ACC Miami (FL) 126.30 7 5 58.3% 1065.29 84 64 56.8% 01
42 MtnWest Air Force 121.37 8 4 66.7% -240.17 78 67 53.8% -02
43 BigEast Rutgers 120.45 7 5 58.3% 547.98 82 64 56.2% 04
44 MAC Buffalo 119.49 8 5 61.5% -148.26 88 82 51.8% 16
45 BigEast Connecticut 109.93 7 5 58.3% 476.70 80 67 54.4% -07
46 SunBelt Troy 100.65 8 4 66.7% -1317.50 67 79 45.9% 07
47 MAC Central Michigan 100.61 8 4 66.7% -741.02 72 76 48.6% -02
48 ACC NC State 94.06 6 6 50.0% 1245.13 87 60 59.2% 00
49 SEC South Carolina 93.72 7 5 58.3% 609.59 83 63 56.8% -03
50 BigEast South Florida 86.30 7 5 58.3% 80.85 78 69 53.1% -07
51 Big12 Kansas 83.90 7 5 58.3% 826.17 89 58 60.5% -02
52 CUSA Houston 72.29 7 5 58.3% -533.54 75 72 51.0% -02
53 SEC LSU 64.15 7 5 58.3% 333.94 82 65 55.8% -01
54 WAC Fresno State 63.34 7 5 58.3% -579.32 74 83 47.1% -03
55 ACC Virginia 46.98 5 7 41.7% 1543.53 85 50 63.0% 01
56 Big10 Wisconsin 45.55 7 5 58.3% 294.30 81 65 55.5% -02
57 WAC Nevada 37.98 7 5 58.3% -161.65 79 68 53.7% -02
58 Pac10 Arizona 34.52 7 5 58.3% -545.61 71 86 45.2% 04
59 SEC Vanderbilt 22.02 6 6 50.0% 776.71 87 71 55.1% 00
60 Big10 Minnesota 21.06 7 5 58.3% -372.79 74 72 50.7% -02
61 WAC Louisiana Tech 10.00 7 5 58.3% -1155.52 67 80 45.6% 00
62 WAC Hawaii 9.42 7 6 53.8% -95.92 86 75 53.4% -05
63 MtnWest Colorado State -4.82 6 6 50.0% 98.16 82 63 56.6% 00
64 Indy Notre Dame -8.16 6 6 50.0% 260.11 78 80 49.4% 00
65 SEC Kentucky -19.71 6 6 50.0% 120.09 81 67 54.7% 00
66 CUSA Southern Miss -30.61 6 6 50.0% -409.68 79 78 50.3% 06
67 MAC Northern Illinois -34.47 6 6 50.0% -917.42 74 73 50.3% 02
68 SunBelt Florida Atlantic -37.06 6 6 50.0% -655.42 76 80 48.7% -02
69 WAC San Jose State -37.57 6 6 50.0% -931.04 63 71 47.0% -02
70 Big10 Illinois -37.69 5 7 41.7% 516.70 82 53 60.7% 00
71 SEC Arkansas -39.89 5 7 41.7% 945.77 86 50 63.2% 00
72 MAC Bowling Green -50.72 6 6 50.0% -754.75 67 78 46.2% 04
73 Pac10 Stanford -55.90 5 7 41.7% 237.23 76 69 52.4% 00
74 SunBelt Arkansas State -56.64 6 6 50.0% -1201.85 63 71 47.0% -06
75 SunBelt LA-Lafayette -60.35 6 6 50.0% -1351.05 60 84 41.7% 05
76 Big12 Colorado -62.53 5 7 41.7% 463.88 77 58 57.0% 01
77 SEC Auburn -74.39 5 7 41.7% 56.66 74 61 54.8% 01
78 ACC Duke -80.55 4 8 33.3% 1251.44 81 53 60.4% 04
79 CUSA Memphis -81.31 6 6 50.0% -1165.19 65 81 44.5% 00
80 MAC Temple -85.30 5 7 41.7% -371.69 72 73 49.7% 03
81 BigEast Louisville -85.44 5 7 41.7% 123.92 74 61 54.8% -07
82 SEC Tennessee -90.94 5 7 41.7% 465.73 79 67 54.1% 02
83 Pac10 Arizona State -91.07 5 7 41.7% -269.93 68 66 50.7% -08
84 CUSA UTEP -92.62 5 7 41.7% -73.04 76 71 51.7% 02
85 Big12 Kansas State -93.15 5 7 41.7% -180.71 70 66 51.5% 00
86 MAC Akron -101.03 5 7 41.7% -628.93 69 78 46.9% 02
87 Big10 Purdue -106.27 4 8 33.3% 712.27 83 50 62.4% 02
88 MtnWest UNLV -107.00 5 7 41.7% -147.89 73 71 50.7% -01
89 Big12 Baylor -109.68 4 8 33.3% 967.19 82 54 60.3% 01
90 SunBelt FL International -121.82 5 7 41.7% -1102.37 63 81 43.8% 02
91 SunBelt Middle TN State -126.90 5 7 41.7% -1304.36 60 84 41.7% -10
92 Pac10 UCLA -139.00 4 8 33.3% 289.72 77 68 53.1% -01
93 MtnWest New Mexico -141.72 4 8 33.3% 227.52 81 64 55.9% 01
94 SEC Mississippi State -142.58 4 8 33.3% 124.60 75 60 55.6% -01
95 CUSA Marshall -142.99 4 8 33.3% 245.24 81 55 59.6% 00
96 Big12 Texas A&M -151.38 4 8 33.3% 672.45 79 66 54.5% 00
97 MAC Ohio -164.10 4 8 33.3% -598.96 70 64 52.2% 01
98 CUSA UAB -167.09 4 8 33.3% -777.99 66 69 48.9% -01
99 CUSA Central Florida -170.80 4 8 33.3% -520.97 68 69 49.6% 00
100 MtnWest Wyoming -172.38 4 8 33.3% -291.77 72 61 54.1% 00
101 BigEast Syracuse -175.52 3 9 25.0% 960.23 85 50 63.0% 00
102 WAC Utah State -184.16 3 9 25.0% 626.15 87 58 60.0% 00
103 Big10 Indiana -194.90 3 9 25.0% 383.42 82 53 60.7% 00
104 Big10 Michigan -204.14 3 9 25.0% 819.69 85 59 59.0% 00
105 MAC Kent State -210.16 4 8 33.3% -935.67 65 71 47.8% 01
106 SunBelt LA-Monroe -219.67 4 8 33.3% -1435.05 57 76 42.9% -01
107 MAC Toledo -231.84 3 9 25.0% -428.55 73 72 50.3% 00
108 MAC Eastern Michigan -252.88 3 9 25.0% -310.24 73 62 54.1% 01
109 WAC New Mexico State -269.47 3 9 25.0% -604.68 68 67 50.4% 01
110 Indy Army -271.09 3 9 25.0% -635.15 67 67 50.0% -02
111 Big12 Iowa State -308.45 2 10 16.7% -387.60 68 66 50.7% 00
112 WAC Idaho -315.85 2 10 16.7% -604.53 70 65 51.9% 00
113 CUSA Tulane -317.32 2 10 16.7% -143.63 77 70 52.4% 00
114 Pac10 Washington State -325.47 2 11 15.4% -72.73 77 69 52.7% 00
115 MtnWest San Diego State -326.09 2 10 16.7% -147.98 74 60 55.2% 01
116 MAC Miami (OH) -363.00 2 10 16.7% -682.27 68 69 49.6% 01
117 Indy Western Kentucky -371.32 2 10 16.7% -833.56 67 60 52.8% -02
118 CUSA SMU -377.01 1 11 8.3% 54.25 78 56 58.2% 00
119 SunBelt North Texas -401.22 1 11 8.3% -604.07 73 72 50.3% 01
120 Pac10 Washington -422.10 0 12 0.0% 1126.86 87 59 59.6% -01

The ACC takes the regular season crown by a landslide. Sure they had the same basic record as the Big12 & SEC at 37-11, but their conference SoS was much tougher than those two. The BigEast slides into the #3 spot, while the Big10, MtnWest, and Pac10 round out the top seven. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in the bowls. I'll have a bigger breakdown of each conference's non-conf schedule later this week.

Week 15 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 152.70 ACC 37 11 77.1% -3724.64 237 195 54.9%
2 106.67 Big12 38 10 79.2% -5253.93 225 250 47.4%
3 100.28 BigEast 29 12 70.7% -2766.00 212 211 50.1%
4 91.04 SEC 38 11 77.6% -4886.74 236 259 47.7%
5 65.79 Big10 32 12 72.7% -4290.84 216 219 49.7%
6 30.81 MtnWest 25 11 69.4% -5180.97 148 211 41.2%
7 -4.22 Pac10 14 17 45.2% 1313.84 206 147 58.4%
8 -34.31 WAC 18 19 48.6% -2223.65 200 176 53.2%
9 -62.15 MAC 22 30 42.3% -3436.32 275 271 50.4%
10 -65.42 CUSA 18 30 37.5% -878.47 280 225 55.4%
11 -116.65 SunBelt 13 27 32.5% -2512.66 217 233 48.2%

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