2011 Top to Bottom
Alrighty, as we've done the past few years, we're going to break down each conference to see which ones were the most balanced, top to bottom.
As always, the premise is that the more often the team with fewer conference victories wins, which we’ll call a "Statistical Upset", the more balanced the conference. Basically, how often do the teams at the bottom upset the teams at the top? The maximum here is 50%, since it's impossible to have more than half of the games in a conference be upsets. The average over all conferences during the BCS era sits at about 13.6%. Below is the big parity table - the numbers in red are below average, blue are above, red shaded means that conference was the least balanced conference in any particular year, and blue shaded is the most balanced in any year.
| % of Conf Games that were Statistical Upsets | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Conf Avg |
| ACC | 06.3% | 20.7% | 05.9% | 21.9% | 11.8% | 21.2% | 13.2% | 25.0% | 18.6% | 15.6% | 29.0% | 15.2% | 12.5% | 20.9% | 17.0% |
| Pac10 | 08.1% | 18.9% | 16.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 22.2% | 07.9% | 10.8% | 28.9% | 30.0% | 14.0% | 22.0% | 14.6% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| CUSA | 09.1% | 04.5% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 20.0% | 07.5% | 18.2% | 21.4% | 21.3% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 12.8% | 15.4% |
| SunBelt | 11.8% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 26.9% | 23.8% | 16.0% | 12.5% | 16.7% | 05.9% | 29.0% | 00.0% | 15.0% | |||
| Big10 | 08.1% | 16.7% | 21.6% | 29.7% | 07.3% | 07.9% | 12.5% | 05.4% | 05.1% | 19.4% | 13.2% | 20.0% | 17.9% | 15.6% | 14.3% |
| Year Avg | 09.8% | 16.0% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 13.4% | 15.3% | 16.2% | 17.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 11.1% | 13.6% |
| MAC | 11.1% | 16.0% | 18.6% | 15.9% | 07.1% | 11.3% | 07.5% | 19.0% | 13.6% | 22.0% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 11.8% | 13.2% |
| Big12 | 09.3% | 09.5% | 06.5% | 10.9% | 11.4% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 20.0% | 20.9% | 19.5% | 02.6% | 15.6% | 18.4% | 09.3% | 13.1% |
| MtnWest | 25.0% | 20.8% | 07.7% | 15.4% | 20.8% | 12.0% | 21.9% | 15.2% | 11.8% | 02.9% | 00.0% | 03.2% | 00.0% | 12.1% | |
| BigEast | 08.3% | 07.7% | 03.8% | 00.0% | 03.8% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 08.3% | 20.0% | 30.4% | 12.5% | 08.7% | 20.8% | 17.4% | 12.0% |
| SEC | 06.3% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 18.6% | 11.4% | 04.7% | 07.0% | 09.3% | 13.0% | 20.9% | 19.0% | 15.4% | 07.0% | 06.5% | 11.8% |
| WAC | 08.3% | 27.3% | 12.5% | 16.2% | 05.7% | 10.3% | 13.9% | 03.2% | 05.9% | 00.0% | 09.7% | 06.3% | 00.0% | 16.7% | 09.7% |
| BigWest | 23.1% | 16.7% | 00.0% | 13.2% |
On the whole, this was the stablest inter-conference year we've had since 2002. The average number of upsets per conference was just over 5, or an 11.1% average. The highest was the ACC's 20.9%, which is the second-lowest high of the BCS era, and we had not one but two conferences with zero upsets.
Let's look at the individual conferences for 2011.
Games shaded blue are ones in which the team with more conference victories won, red are ones in which the team with more conference victories lost, and green are ones between teams with the same number of conference victories. The numbers represent the margin of victory (or loss, if the number is negative) for the team listed in the farthest left-hand row.
| ACC 2011 - 20.9% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Clem | VA Tech | FL St | GATech | Virginia | Wake F | NCState | BC | Miami | UNC | Duke | MD |
| Clemson (7-2) | 20 | 5 | -14 | 3 | -24 | 22 | 21 | 11 | ||||
| VA Tech (7-2) | -20 | 11 | 38 | 21 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 4 | ||||
| Florida St (5-3) | -5 | -1 | -5 | 34 | 31 | 4 | 25 | 25 | ||||
| GA Tech (5-3) | 14 | -11 | -3 | 10 | -17 | 7 | 7 | 5 | ||||
| Virginia (5-3) | -3 | 1 | 3 | -14 | 7 | -11 | 10 | 18 | ||||
| Wake F (5-3) | -3 | -21 | 5 | 7 | 8 | -25 | 1 | 21 | ||||
| NC State (4-4) | 24 | -34 | -10 | 14 | -7 | -4 | 13 | 15 | ||||
| BC (3-5) | -22 | -16 | -31 | -8 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 11 | ||||
| Miami FL (3-5) | -3 | -4 | 17 | -7 | -7 | 6 | 35 | -8 | ||||
| N Carolina (3-5) | -21 | -3 | -7 | 11 | 25 | -13 | -6 | 16 | ||||
| Duke (1-7) | -4 | -25 | -7 | -10 | -1 | 1 | -35 | -16 | ||||
| Maryland (1-7) | -11 | -25 | -5 | -18 | -21 | -15 | -11 | 8 |
After being under average last year, the ACC rebounded with a slew of medium-sized upsets. NC State over Clemson was the biggest of the bunch, not only because the Tigers were the conference champs but because of the absolute beatdown the game was - a 24 point whuppin'. The Wolfpack had their hands in two other upsets as well, defeating Virginia but losing to Boston College.
| BigEast 2011 - 17.4% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | WestVA | Cincy | L'vlle | Pitt | Rutg | UConn | USF | Syrac |
| W Virginia (5-2) | 3 | -3 | 1 | 10 | 27 | 3 | -26 | |
| Cincinnati (5-2) | -3 | 9 | 3 | -17 | 8 | 3 | 17 | |
| Louisville (5-2) | 3 | -9 | -7 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 17 | |
| Pitt (4-3) | -1 | -3 | 7 | -24 | 15 | 27 | 13 | |
| Rutgers (4-3) | -10 | 17 | -2 | 24 | -18 | 3 | 3 | |
| UConn (3-4) | -27 | -8 | -14 | -15 | 18 | 6 | 7 | |
| USF (1-6) | -3 | -3 | -10 | -27 | -3 | -6 | 20 | |
| Syracuse (1-6) | 26 | -17 | -17 | -13 | -3 | -7 | -20 |
Another good year in the BigEast, quite exciting right up until the end. That corner game is huge - that was one of West Virginia's two conference losses, and Syracuse's only conference win - the Mountaineers are lucky it didn't ruin their BCS chances.
| WAC 2011 - 16.7% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | LATech | Nevada | UtahSt | FresSt | Hawaii | SanJSt | NMexSt | Idaho |
| LA Tech (6-1) | 4 | 7 | 20 | -18 | 10 | 44 | 13 | |
| Nevada (5-2) | -4 | -4 | 7 | 14 | 3 | 14 | 53 | |
| Utah St (5-2) | -7 | 4 | -10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | |
| Fresno St (3-4) | -20 | -7 | 10 | 3 | -3 | -3 | 24 | |
| Hawaii (3-4) | 18 | -14 | -4 | -3 | -1 | 11 | 2 | |
| San Jose St (3-4) | -10 | -3 | -1 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -3 | |
| New Mex St (2-5) | -44 | -14 | -3 | 3 | -11 | -10 | 7 | |
| Idaho (1-6) | -13 | -53 | -7 | -24 | -2 | 3 | -7 |
The only thing more interesting in this conference than Louisiana Tech rising to the top was their loss to 3-4 Hawaii - big one there. Most of the teams were bunched up in the middle of the conference, which always makes for a higher average. 16.7% is the most balanced the WAC has been since 1999 and the first time since 2004 that they've been in double digits. Nice.
| Pac12 2011 - 16.0% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Oregon | Stanfd | USC | Wash | UCLA | Cal | ArizSt | Utah | OreSt | Ariz | WashSt | Colo |
| Oregon (9-1) | 23 | -3 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 14 | 28 | 25 | 15 | 43 | ||
| Stanford (8-1) | -23 | 8 | 44 | 26 | 3 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 41 | |||
| USC (7-2) | 3 | -8 | 23 | 50 | 21 | -21 | 9 | 7 | 25 | |||
| Washington (5-4) | -17 | -44 | -23 | 8 | 17 | -17 | 11 | 17 | 28 | |||
| UCLA (5-5) | -18 | -26 | -50 | 17 | 1 | -25 | 8 | -36 | 3 | 39 | ||
| Cal (4-5) | -28 | -3 | -21 | -8 | -17 | 9 | 24 | 17 | 23 | |||
| Arizona St (4-5) | -14 | 21 | -1 | -9 | 21 | 15 | -4 | -10 | 34 | |||
| Utah (4-5) | -9 | -17 | 25 | -24 | -21 | 19 | 13 | 3 | -3 | |||
| Oregon St (3-6) | -28 | -25 | 17 | -8 | -17 | -15 | -19 | 10 | 23 | |||
| Arizona (2-7) | -25 | -27 | -7 | -11 | 36 | 4 | -13 | -10 | -19 | |||
| Wash St (2-7) | -15 | -30 | -17 | -3 | -23 | 10 | -3 | -23 | 4 | |||
| Colorado (2-7) | -43 | -41 | -25 | -28 | -39 | -34 | 3 | 19 | -4 |
Even with the addition of Utah and Colorado, there was the usual amount of chaos in the Pac12 - this is their sixth year above average, averaging nearly 21% in that span. None of the upsets were all that huge, but there were a lot of them and a good number of teams bunched up in the middle of the pack. Arizona State, the disappointment of the year in the conference, had their hand in three of the upsets, beating USC but losing to Arizona and Washington St.
| Big10 2011 - 15.6% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Wisc | Mich St | Mich | PennSt | Nebras | Iowa | Purdue | NWest | OhioSt | Illi | Minn | Indi |
| Wisconsin (7-2) | -6 | 38 | 31 | 45 | -4 | 11 | 29 | 52 | ||||
| Michigan St (7-2) | 6 | 14 | -21 | 16 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 52 | ||||
| Michigan (6-2) | -14 | 28 | -8 | 22 | 18 | 6 | 17 | 58 | ||||
| Penn St (6-2) | -38 | -3 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 6 | ||||
| Nebraska (5-3) | -31 | 21 | -28 | 3 | 13 | -3 | 7 | 27 | ||||
| Iowa (4-4) | -16 | 8 | -10 | -13 | 10 | 10 | -1 | 21 | ||||
| Purdue (4-4) | -45 | -22 | -5 | -10 | 3 | 7 | 28 | 8 | ||||
| N'western (3-5) | -14 | -18 | -10 | 3 | -10 | -3 | 15 | 21 | ||||
| Ohio St (3-5) | 4 | -3 | -6 | -6 | -7 | -3 | 10 | 14 | ||||
| Illinois (2-6) | -11 | -17 | -3 | -7 | 3 | -10 | -20 | 21 | ||||
| Minn (2-6) | -29 | -7 | -58 | -27 | 1 | -28 | -15 | 20 | ||||
| Indiana (0-8) | -52 | -52 | -6 | -21 | -8 | -21 | -14 | -21 |
Ohio State's win over Wisconsin stands out here in a big way, even though it was a close game. Not too many games between similar teams and some mid-level upsets made this an interesting season with the new-look of Nebraska added in. It was a rocky first year for the Huskers, who were involved in three of the upsets, losing to Northwestern but beating Penn St and Michigan St.
| CUSA 2011 - 12.8% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | Houst | Tulsa | S Miss | Marsh | SMU | E Car | UAB | UCF | Rice | UTEP | Memph | Tulane |
| Houston (8-1) | 32 | -21 | 35 | 30 | 53 | 43 | 39 | 7 | 56 | |||
| Tulsa (7-1) | -32 | 42 | 31 | 17 | 7 | 18 | 29 | 28 | ||||
| S Miss (7-2) | 21 | -6 | 24 | 20 | -3 | 1 | 24 | 18 | 37 | |||
| Marshall (5-3) | -35 | -42 | 6 | 7 | 45 | -10 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| SMU (5-3) | -30 | -31 | -24 | 21 | 3 | 11 | 42 | 21 | ||||
| E Carolina (4-4) | -53 | -20 | -7 | 5 | 7 | -5 | 18 | 21 | ||||
| UAB (3-5) | -43 | -17 | 3 | -45 | -5 | 2 | 6 | -39 | ||||
| UCF (3-5) | -7 | -1 | 10 | -21 | -7 | -2 | 17 | 41 | ||||
| Rice (3-5) | -39 | -18 | -24 | -4 | -3 | 4 | 22 | 12 | ||||
| UTEP (2-6) | -7 | -29 | -18 | -11 | 5 | -17 | -4 | 37 | ||||
| Memphis (1-7) | -37 | -1 | -42 | -18 | -6 | -41 | -22 | 16 | ||||
| Tulane (1-7) | -56 | -28 | -21 | -21 | 39 | -12 | -37 | -16 |
Not too many upsets in the CUSA this season, but enough to put it at a little over average. Obviously the biggest was Southern Miss over Houston, but statistically it's not that significant because the two of them were only separated by two games in the standings.
| MAC 2011 - 11.8% upsets | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | N Ill | Tledo | Ohio | Templ | W Mich | Ball St | E Mich | Kent | Bowl G | Miami | Buff | C Mich | Akron |
| N Illinois (8-1) | 3 | 3 | 29 | 3 | 6 | 30 | 31 | 1 | -7 | ||||
| Toledo (7-1) | -3 | 23 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 7 | 21 | 27 | |||||
| Ohio (6-3) | -3 | 4 | -3 | 7 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 15 | 17 | ||||
| Temple (5-3) | -23 | -4 | 42 | 18 | -3 | 3 | 34 | 38 | |||||
| W Mich (5-3) | -29 | -3 | 10 | -4 | 24 | 3 | 30 | 49 | |||||
| Ball St (4-4) | -3 | -17 | 3 | -42 | -10 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||
| E Mich (4-4) | -6 | -38 | 4 | -2 | -6 | 13 | 7 | 8 | |||||
| Kent (4-4) | -30 | -7 | -18 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | 32 | |||||
| B Green (3-5) | -31 | -7 | -1 | 3 | -24 | -12 | 14 | 14 | |||||
| Miami OH (3-5) | -21 | -7 | -3 | -3 | 6 | -14 | 28 | 32 | |||||
| Buffalo (2-6) | -1 | 1 | -34 | -3 | -13 | -14 | -28 | 41 | |||||
| C Mich (2-6) | 7 | -27 | -15 | -30 | -4 | -7 | -3 | 41 | |||||
| Akron (0-8) | -17 | -38 | -49 | -8 | -32 | -32 | -41 | -1 |
Central Michigan over Northern Illinois - how did that happen? Buffalo over Ohio was a close second for upset of the conference season.
| Big12 2011 - 9.3% upsets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | OK St | KS St | Baylor | Okla | Mizzou | Texas | TX A&M | Iowa St | TX Tech | Kansas |
| Oklahoma St (8-1) | 7 | 35 | 34 | 21 | 12 | 1 | -6 | 60 | 42 | |
| Kansas St (7-2) | -7 | 1 | -41 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 38 | |
| Baylor (6-3) | -35 | -1 | 7 | 3 | 24 | -27 | 23 | 24 | 1 | |
| Oklahoma (6-3) | -34 | 41 | -7 | 10 | 38 | 16 | 20 | -3 | 30 | |
| Missouri (5-4) | -21 | -7 | -3 | -10 | 12 | 7 | 35 | 4 | 14 | |
| Texas (4-5) | -12 | -4 | -24 | -38 | -12 | 2 | 23 | 32 | 43 | |
| Texas A&M (4-5) | -1 | -3 | 27 | -16 | -7 | -2 | 16 | 5 | 54 | |
| Iowa St (3-6) | 6 | -7 | -23 | -20 | -35 | -23 | -16 | 34 | 3 | |
| Texas Tech (2-7) | -60 | -7 | -24 | 3 | -4 | -32 | -5 | -34 | 11 | |
| Kansas (0-9) | -42 | -38 | -1 | -30 | -14 | -43 | -54 | -3 | -11 |
Only four upsets in the Big12 this season, but they were all doozies - Iowa State over Oklahoma State is there, as is Texas A&M over Baylor and Texas Tech over Oklahoma. Even Oklahoma over Kansas State is noteworthy because of the sheer point differential.
| SEC 2010 - 6.5% upsets | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | LSU | Bama | UGA | Ark | SoCar | Aubrn | Fla | Kenty | MissSt | Vandy | Tenn | Miss |
| LSU (9-0) | 3 | 32 | 24 | 35 | 30 | 28 | 13 | 31 | 49 | |||
| Alabama (7-1) | -3 | 24 | 28 | 28 | 17 | 34 | 31 | 45 | ||||
| Georgia (7-2) | -32 | -3 | 38 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 14 | |||
| Arkansas (6-2) | -24 | -24 | 16 | 24 | 27 | 3 | 42 | 5 | ||||
| S Carolina (6-2) | 3 | -16 | -3 | 5 | 51 | 2 | 18 | 11 | ||||
| Auburn (4-4) | -35 | -28 | -38 | -24 | 3 | 11 | 7 | 18 | ||||
| Florida (3-5) | -30 | -28 | -4 | -5 | -11 | 38 | 5 | 10 | ||||
| Kentucky (2-6) | -28 | -9 | -51 | -38 | -12 | -30 | 3 | 17 | ||||
| Miss St (2-6) | -13 | -17 | -14 | -27 | -2 | -7 | 12 | 28 | ||||
| Vanderbilt (2-6) | -34 | -5 | -3 | -18 | -5 | 30 | -6 | 23 | ||||
| Tennessee (1-7) | -31 | -31 | -8 | -42 | -11 | -10 | -3 | 6 | ||||
| Ole Miss (0-8) | -49 | -45 | -14 | -5 | -18 | -17 | -28 | 23 |
Another unbalanced year in the SEC - this is their second in a row in the single digits. Just three statistical upsets, and none of them noteworthy. Auburn had the roughest go of it, playing the 6 toughest teams in the conference, while Georgia avoided the 3 best teams in the West until meeting LSU in the championship.
| MtnWest 2011 - 0.0% upsets | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | TCU | BoiseSt | Wyom | SanDSt | AForce | ColoSt | NewMex | UNLV |
| TCU (7-0) | 1 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 24 | 69 | 47 | |
| Boise St (6-1) | -1 | 22 | 17 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 27 | |
| Wyoming (5-2) | -11 | -22 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 21 | 27 | |
| San Diego St (4-3) | -13 | -17 | -3 | 14 | 3 | 28 | 17 | |
| Air Force (3-4) | -16 | -11 | -8 | -14 | 24 | 42 | 28 | |
| Colorado St (1-6) | -24 | -50 | -3 | -3 | -24 | 4 | -3 | |
| New Mexico (1-6) | -69 | -45 | -21 | -28 | -42 | -4 | 7 | |
| UNLV (1-6) | -47 | -27 | -27 | -17 | -28 | 3 | -7 |
No upsets in the MtnWest this season, but Colorado State's loss to UNLV did create a three-way tie for last place. Even adding Boise State into the conference didn't shake things up at all.
| SunBelt 2011 - 0.0% upsets | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conf Standings | ArkSt | WKU | LA-Laf | FlaIntl | NTexas | LA-Mon | Troy | MTSU | FlaAtl |
| Arkansas St (8-0) | 4 | 9 | 18 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 18 | |
| Western Kentucky (7-1) | -4 | 19 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 23 | 3 | 20 | |
| LA-Lafayette (6-2) | -9 | -19 | 5 | 20 | 1 | 14 | 25 | 3 | |
| Florida Int'l (5-3) | -18 | -1 | -5 | 25 | 11 | 3 | 13 | 34 | |
| N Texas (4-4) | -23 | -10 | -20 | -25 | 17 | 5 | 52 | 14 | |
| LA-Monroe (3-5) | -5 | -3 | -1 | -11 | -17 | 28 | 28 | 26 | |
| Troy (2-6) | -31 | -23 | -14 | -3 | -5 | -28 | 3 | 27 | |
| Mid TN St (1-7) | -26 | -3 | -25 | -13 | -52 | -28 | -3 | 24 | |
| Florida Atl (0-8) | -18 | -20 | -3 | -34 | -14 | -26 | -27 | -24 |
And a year after posting the most balanced conference ever at 29%, the SunBelt goes perfectly unbalanced. Fascinating.
1 comment:
Look at the points difference in the games LA-Monroe lost, they nearly had a great season
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