Bowls & TV Ratings, 2012 edition

Alright, we've done this before but it's been a couple of years: Let's take a quick look at the television ratings for all these bowls and see if we can't make something of them. Everyone knows that the ratings are down, but by how much? And for all bowls? Or just some?

The first area we'll look at are the BCS bowls and how they've fared over the years. The chart below shows the five BCS bowls - the Rose, Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, and National Championship. For the first 8 years when one of those bowls doubled as the national championship, the blue of the championship game is marked with the color of the game that hosted it.

The only bowl that hasn't been down over the last few seasons is the Fiesta, and that's mainly due to their #3 vs #4 matchup in 2012 (and even the ratings for that weren't as high as some of the golden years in the 2000's.) The slope don't lie - things aren't looking good for the BCS bowls, which is why there's going to be a shakeup soon. (Let's put it another way - this past year the sum of the ratings for the BCS bowl games was a 44.5 share. The only other years lower than that were 2001 and 2004 - and those years only had 4 BCS games, not 5.)

What about the other, non-BCS bowls? Have they suffered the same decline over the past two seasons?

The table below lists all of the bowls from 2002-2011, their ratings each year, how 2011 stacked up to their average from 2002-2009, and whether or not they did better (blue) or worse (red) than previous season's rating.

Bowl Ratings 2002-2011 (by share)
Bowl	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2011 to Avg
Texas					1.4	0.3	0.3	2.1	2.7	2.7	1.7
Outback	4.2	4.5	3.6	2.4	4.4	3.4	3.1	3.5	7.1	5.1	1.5
Cotton	4.2	4.5	2.6	3.7	3.7	3.5	4.4	4.5	5.8	5.0	1.1
Insight	3.4	3.1	2.9	3.3	0.9	0.4	1.2	0.4	2.2	3.0	1.1
Champs Sports	1.6	2.1	1.9	2.2	3.0	3.7	5.2	3.9	2.1	3.3	0.4
New Orleans	1.4	1.5	1.4	1.7	1.3	1.6	0.8	0.7	1.3	1.6	0.3
Music City	2.3	2.4	3.1	2.1	2.2	4.0	2.8	1.7	4.2	2.7	0.1
Beef'O'Brady's							1.3	1.6	2.0	1.5	0.0
Poinsettia				0.9	1.5	2.0	3.7	2.4	2.3	2.1	0.0
Alamo	4.4	4.2	4.2	5.4	6.0	2.7	4.6	4.8	2.8	4.4	-0.1
Sun	3.6	3.5	2.8	2.6	2.4	2.3	2.2	3.3	3.0	2.7	-0.1
Famous Potato	1.8	2.1	1.7	2.3	1.6	0.8	2.4	2.1	1.8	1.7	-0.2
Las Vegas	2.9	1.8	1.9	2.4	2.0	2.5	2.5	2.2	3.3	2.1	-0.2
BBVA Compass					1.7	2.3	2.0	1.6	2.2	1.5	-0.4
Military							2.2	1.9	1.5	1.5	-0.6
Little Caesars	1.9	2.3	1.7	2.2	2.1	2.7	2.5	2.6	1.4	1.7	-0.6
Armed Forces		2.8	1.6	2.3	2.0	2.0	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.4	-0.6
New Mexico					1.8	2.0	2.6	2.4	1.8	1.5	-0.7
GoDaddy.com	2.3	1.5	2.1	2.0	1.6	1.1	2.2	2.4	1.8	1.2	-0.7
Kraft Fight Hunger	1.6	1.2	2.0	2.2	4.5	3.6	4.6	4.6	1.6	2.3	-0.7
Belk	2.0	2.2	1.8	1.5	3.9	3.7	4.5	3.9	2.0	2.2	-0.7
Hawaii	2.4	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.5	1.5	3.0	1.7	2.1	1.4	-0.8
Chick-fil-A	4.0	4.0	5.0	5.2	4.8	5.1	3.9	4.2	4.3	3.6	-0.9
Independence	3.6	3.7	2.8	2.8	3.0	1.9	1.0	2.4	1.4	1.5	-1.2
Liberty	1.7	2.4	4.6	3.3	3.2	4.1	2.7	3.8	3.0	1.9	-1.3
Holiday	4.2	4.9	4.0	5.1	4.1	4.4	4.6	3.7	3.5	2.7	-1.7
Gator	6.2	4.2	4.0	3.9	3.9	2.6	4.1	4.0	1.7	1.9	-2.2
Capital One	5.9	8.0	5.5	5.2	5.8	9.1	6.4	6.8	3.7	2.9	-3.7
TicketCity									1.3	1.4	-
Pinstripe									2.3	2.1	-

Hmmm... so it looks like about a quarter of the bowls actually exceeded their 2002-09 average this past year, which given the hype seems high. On top of that, only eight bowls dropped in ratings both of the last two years, as compared to 4 of the 5 BCS bowls. Interesting.

So how much of these bowls' ratings have to do with what teams they select? A decent amount, no doubt. As we all know, bowls don't choose participants based on their records - they choose them based on how many seats they'll fill and how many eyes they'll draw to the TV screen.

The final big table below lists how each team's bowl ratings have fared against those bowls when they haven't participated. For instance, in looking at Florida State, in 2004 the Seminoles were in the Gator Bowl, which garnered a 4.0 rating share. In the other years between 2002-2011 when Florida State wasn't participating, the Gator Bowl averaged a 3.6 share. (That doesn't include 2009 when the Seminoles participated, since it would skew the "without the Seminoles" average.) That means that in 2004, the Seminoles drew 0.4 more than the Gator Bowl average. Most years, bowls benefited from inviting the Seminoles, earning a total of nearly 17 share points more than their average without Florida State. And the Seminoles only participated in one bowl, the 2010 Chick-Fil-A Bowl, whose rating share was worse than their average. Make sense?

Ratings Shares Compared to Bowl's Average, 2002-2011
Team	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Total	Avg
Florida St	1.0	2.9	0.4	5.5	1.8	1.4	2.6	0.4	-0.1	0.7	16.8	1.7
USC	2.2	2.7	-2.4	5.6	2.3	-0.6	0.0	2.0			11.8	1.5
Ohio St	1.2	0.8	-0.2	5.0	1.4	1.4	2.5	1.2	-0.1	-1.9	11.1	1.1
Notre Dame	2.8		0.9	4.6	1.1		1.0		0.2	0.4	11.0	1.6
Texas	0.0	0.7	0.3	6.0	1.8	0.2	1.8	1.5		-1.5	10.9	1.2
Penn St	0.1			5.1	0.6	-1.9	-0.5	1.0	3.4	0.1	7.9	1.0
Miami (FL)	0.9	2.2	0.8	1.0	-0.2		2.0	1.1	0.2		7.9	1.0
Michigan	0.1	2.9	0.9	1.2	2.5	3.6			-2.2	-2.5	6.5	0.8
Florida	0.4	0.7	0.7	-1.5	1.0	3.6	-0.6	0.2	3.3	-1.9	5.8	0.6
Georgia	1.0	2.4	-0.5	0.8	0.4	-1.2	0.8	0.0	-0.1	1.0	4.6	0.5
Boise St	0.0	1.1	1.7	0.6	-0.6	-0.7	1.8	-0.8	1.0	-0.2	4.0	0.4
Purdue	0.9	2.3	0.1		0.1	0.6				-0.4	3.5	0.6
N Carolina			-0.7				2.0	1.4	1.6	-1.0	3.3	0.7
W Forest	2.4				-0.9	1.1	0.6			-0.1	3.1	0.6
Hawaii	0.7	0.5	0.5		0.8	-1.4	1.3		0.4		2.8	0.4
Ole Miss	1.3	0.4					0.3	0.4			2.5	0.6
C Michigan					0.1	0.7	0.5	0.6			2.0	0.5
Arizona St	0.1		0.0	1.4	0.5	0.3				-0.3	2.0	0.3
UCLA	0.6	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	1.8	0.2		0.2		-0.4	1.9	0.2
Arkansas	-0.5	1.4			-0.1	-0.7		0.8	-0.1	0.8	1.6	0.2
Oregon	2.4	0.7		1.1	-0.4	-0.5	0.7	0.9	-1.2	-2.1	1.5	0.2
California		1.1	-0.3	0.1	-0.2	0.2	2.0	0.3		-1.6	1.4	0.2
Baylor									1.3	0.1	1.4	0.7
Maryland	-0.5	0.6			0.1	0.9	0.6		-0.4		1.4	0.2
UCF				0.1		1.2		0.0	0.0		1.3	0.3
Rutgers				1.4	-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.0		-0.2	1.2	0.2
Oregon St	1.6	-0.7	1.1		-0.6	0.9	-0.8	-0.2			1.2	0.2
Louisville	0.5	-0.3	1.7	0.3	-0.9				0.5	-0.6	1.2	0.2
Kansas St	0.1	-0.2			-0.2				0.2	0.9	0.8	0.2
Missouri		1.4		0.5	-0.5	-0.8	0.3	0.6	0.1	-0.8	0.8	0.1
Nwestern		0.2		-0.3			0.3	-0.7	-0.1	1.3	0.8	0.1
Buffalo							0.8				0.8	0.8
Florida Atl						0.3	0.4				0.8	0.4
Marshall	0.5		-0.3					0.5		-0.1	0.7	0.2
Memphis		0.3	0.3	0.1		0.4	-0.4				0.6	0.1
Iowa	2.1	0.1	-0.5	-2.1	1.8		-1.4	-0.8	0.2	1.0	0.6	0.1
Ball St						0.1	0.4				0.5	0.3
San Diego St									0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2
Fresno St	0.2	0.3	-0.3	0.3		-1.2	0.8	0.6	-0.2		0.5	0.1
N Texas	0.1	0.2	0.1								0.5	0.2
Stanford								0.5	-1.1	0.9	0.3	0.1
Tulane	0.3										0.3	0.3
Idaho								0.3			0.3	0.3
LA-Lafayette										0.3	0.3	0.3
Washington	0.8								-0.7	0.1	0.2	0.1
Michigan St		-0.1				0.9	0.2	0.5	-2.5	1.1	0.2	0.0
Ohio					-0.3			0.5	0.0	-0.1	0.1	0.0
UAB			0.1								0.1	0.1
Akron				0.1							0.1	0.1
Bowl. Green		0.2	0.2			-0.7		0.3			0.0	0.0
Miami (OH)		-0.4	0.4						-0.1		0.0	0.0
Boston Coll.	-0.2	-1.7	-1.0	0.6	1.1	0.9	0.0	1.6	-1.4		-0.1	0.0
Utah St										-0.1	-0.1	-0.1
Wash St	-1.0	0.8									-0.1	-0.1
Pittsburgh	1.5	-0.5	-1.6				-0.7	1.2	0.3	-0.4	-0.2	0.0
Tulsa		0.3		0.3	0.1	-0.7	0.3		0.0	-0.5	-0.2	0.0
San Jose St					-0.2						-0.2	-0.2
Arkansas St				0.4						-0.7	-0.3	-0.1
Navy		0.2	-0.9	-1.5	1.2	-0.4	0.6	0.6	-0.1		-0.3	0.0
Illinois						-1.2			1.3	-0.6	-0.4	-0.1
Temple								0.2		-0.6	-0.4	-0.2
W Michigan										-0.5	-0.5	-0.5
Troy			-0.3		-0.1		-0.6	0.6	-0.1		-0.5	-0.1
UTEP			-0.4	0.2					-0.3		-0.5	-0.2
Texas A&M			-1.6		0.0	-1.9		0.0	1.6	1.3	-0.5	-0.1
Kentucky					-0.6	1.2	-0.4	-1.1	0.4		-0.5	-0.1
Army									-0.6		-0.6	-0.6
Wyoming			-0.5					0.4		-0.5	-0.7	-0.2
Mid Tenn St					0.0			-0.7	0.0		-0.7	-0.2
LSU	0.2	-2.4	-0.4	0.8	1.1	0.5	-0.5	0.9	1.8	-2.9	-0.7	-0.1
Oklahoma St	0.4	0.4	-0.4		0.6	-1.9	0.5	0.4	-1.8	0.9	-0.8	-0.1
Syracuse			-1.1						0.2		-0.9	-0.5
E Carolina					-0.2	-0.7	-0.3	0.8	-0.4		-0.9	-0.2
Florida Intl									-0.8	-0.1	-0.9	-0.5
Miss State						1.2			-2.2	-0.1	-1.1	-0.4
Houston		0.1		0.4	0.2	-1.5	-0.2	-0.3		0.1	-1.2	-0.2
BYU				0.0	-0.4	0.1	0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.5	-1.2	-0.2
W Virginia	-0.7	0.8	0.6	0.8	0.5	-1.3	1.8	0.6	-0.9	-3.5	-1.3	-0.1
Vanderbilt							0.0			-1.3	-1.3	-0.6
NC State	2.8	-1.0		-1.5			0.2		-1.0	-0.8	-1.3	-0.2
New Mexico	0.5	-0.6	-0.9		-0.3	-0.1					-1.3	-0.3
SMU								-0.5	-0.6	-0.4	-1.5	-0.5
Rice					0.0		-1.5				-1.6	-0.8
LA Tech							-1.6			0.0	-1.6	-0.8
S Miss	0.4	-0.7	-0.1	0.2	-0.3	0.5	-0.7	-0.8	0.5	-0.8	-1.6	-0.2
Colorado	0.1		-0.4	-0.8		-0.6					-1.7	-0.4
Kansas		-0.9		0.5		-0.4	-1.0				-1.8	-0.4
W Michigan					-0.3		-1.5				-1.8	-0.9
Iowa St	0.0		0.4	-0.2				-1.9		-0.2	-1.9	-0.4
Indiana						-1.9					-1.9	-1.9
Connecticut			-0.5			1.1	0.8	-0.3	-3.0		-1.9	-0.4
Arizona							0.2	-0.5	-1.7		-2.0	-0.7
Toledo	-0.4		-0.6	0.2					-0.9	-0.4	-2.1	-0.4
Nebraska	1.3	0.0		1.2	-0.5		0.5	-0.5	-0.7	-3.4	-2.2	-0.3
Tennessee	-0.6	-0.5	-1.8		0.2	-0.8		-0.4	1.6		-2.3	-0.3
Utah		-0.7	-1.6	-0.7	0.2	-0.1	-0.5	0.3	1.1	-0.2	-2.3	-0.3
TCU	-1.5	1.1		-0.2	-0.4	-1.5	1.8	-0.7	-1.0	0.2	-2.3	-0.3
Nevada				-0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.6	-0.6	-1.4	-0.9	-2.5	-0.4
Wisconsin	0.1	-0.4	-0.7	-0.9	-0.2	-0.9	2.7	1.4	-1.3	-2.4	-2.5	-0.3
Auburn	-0.1	-0.4	1.4	-0.9	-0.5	0.7		-0.7	-1.2	-0.8	-2.6	-0.3
Air Force	-1.4					0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-1.1	-0.4	-3.3	-0.5
Texas Tech	-1.4	0.2	-0.1	-0.5	-1.3	-1.2	0.2	0.5	-0.1		-3.8	-0.4
Cincinnati	0.1		-0.3		-0.3	0.5	-2.6	0.2		-1.3	-3.8	-0.5
N Illinois			-0.3		-0.8		-1.6	-0.6	0.0	-0.7	-3.9	-0.6
Colorado St	-1.5	-1.8		-1.4			0.7				-4.0	-1.0
S Carolina				0.4	0.2		-1.1	-0.3	-0.1	-3.4	-4.3	-0.7
S Florida				-1.5	-0.2	-0.6	-0.4	-0.6	-1.0		-4.3	-0.7
Virginia	-0.9	-0.7	-0.1	-0.7		-1.2				-0.9	-4.6	-0.8
Alabama			0.4	-0.5	0.6	-0.5	-0.5	0.6	-2.5	-2.6	-5.2	-0.6
GA Tech	0.0	0.2	-1.1	-0.7	0.2	-1.2	-0.6	-1.1	-1.1	-0.2	-5.4	-0.5
Minnesota	-0.6	0.7	0.2	-0.7	-1.7		-1.4	-2.2			-5.7	-0.8
VA Tech	-1.4	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.4	-0.9	-2.9	-0.2	-1.5	-2.3	-6.4	-0.6
Clemson	-1.5	-0.4		-0.9	-0.7	0.7	0.5	-1.3	-0.9	-3.5	-8.0	-0.9
Oklahoma	-1.0	-2.7	-3.5	1.1	-1.1	-1.8	-1.4	0.5	-3.3	1.0	-12.2	-1.2

As was the case two years ago, the story isn't at the top - it's at the bottom. Of course some of the biggies are the best at maximizing TV ratings for bowls - Florida State, USC,Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Texas are the top 5 and usually bring in at least a share point higher to whatever bowl they're playing in. But at the bottom are some biggies you might not expect - Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Alabama, and South Carolina are all in the bottom 10. The Sooners have boosted ratings a few times, but they've been in some clunkers too with seven of their past ten bowl games earning a full share or worse lower than that bowl's average without them. Ouch. The Hokies woes are more recent. They were on a good run at the beginning of the last decade, but since 2007 all of their games have fared worse than average on TV. Their ACC comrade Yellow Jackets are in the same boat. The Tide is a bit of stunner here, even though we knew the 2011 title game wouldn't help them. This year's championship and last year's Capital One Bowl were major disappointments, but not as bad as South Carolina's Capital One Bowl this year.

So while the bowls seem to be drawing less attention, both attendance-wise and in the TV ratings, it's not as bad as some might make it seem by just looking at the BCS bowls. Get the right teams and your ratings might just stop dropping.