Mississippi - Texas Tech

the Cotton Bowl Friday, January 2nd, 2:00pm Dallas, Texas
Mississippi (8-4)______SEC______180.41 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Memphis -100.89 W, 41-24 2 Wake Forest 268.32 L, 28-30 3 Samford -416.02 W, 34-10 4 Vanderbilt 26.46 L, 17-23 5 Florida 473.27 W, 31-30 6 South Carolina 93.53 L, 24-31 8 Alabama 390.74 L, 20-24 9 Arkansas -38.58 W, 23-21 10 Auburn -69.61 W, 17-7 12 LA-Monroe -215.72 W, 59-0 13 LSU 61.99 W, 31-13 14 Mississippi State -140.39 W, 45-0	Texas Tech (11-1)______Big12_____382.54 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Eastern Washington -439.37 W, 49-24 2 Nevada 35.29 W, 35-19 3 SMU -370.81 W, 43-7 4 Massachusetts -411.47 W, 56-14 6 Kansas State -87.46 W, 58-28 7 Nebraska 157.90 W, 37-31 8 Texas A&M -147.50 W, 43-25 9 Kansas 94.61 W, 63-21 10 Texas 462.59 W, 39-33 11 Oklahoma State 222.81 W, 56-20 13 Oklahoma 557.08 L, 21-65 14 Baylor -103.46 W, 35-28

Overall, Texas Tech had the easier schedule because they played two I-AA cupcakes. But they also had better wins - Mississippi only beat two teams in the blue.

Stats Matchup
Team	Mississippi	Texas Tech
Points (rank)	180.41 (#30)	382.54 (#7)
Record	8-4	11-1
Opp. Points (rank)	285.52 (#42)	-143.73 (#65)
Opp. Record	76-59	68-56
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	30.8 (147%)	44.6 (150%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	17.8 (74%)	26.3 (90%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	183.4 (135%)	118.9 (86%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	83.9 (57%)	133.5 (87%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	215.3 (115%)	417.3 (171%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	209.8 (111%)	238.1 (98%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	398.7 (123%)	536.2 (133%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	293.8 (86%)	371.6 (93%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	122.9 (102%)	105.8 (77%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	124.8 (103%)	142.8 (111%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	5.3 / 50.8	7.3 / 60.1
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / -1	1.6 / +7

The Rebels held their opponents to just 57% of their average rushing yards this season, but that's not going to help them much here against the pass-happy Red Raiders. Seems like a really small spread...

The Line: Texas Tech -4.5

The Call: Texas Tech by 14

The Result: Mississippi 47-34

Uh-oh - things aren't looking too good for the Big12 right now. The #4 team in the conference, Oklahoma State, lost to Oregon, and now the #3 team in the conference, Texas Tech, lost to Mississippi. Now I don't subscribe to the notion that bowls mean everything - they're not an indicator of a team's overall season. But after hearing for four months about how dominant the Big12 was, they're certainly not showing it now that they're playing decent non-conference competition. (Incidentally, how funny is it that the Big12 south's weak brother, the north, accounted for most of the conference's bowl wins? They're 3-0 already, whereas the south is 0-2.)

Iowa - South Carolina

the Outback Bowl Thursday, January 1st, 11:00am Tampa, Florida
Iowa (8-4)______Big10______150.39 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Maine -414.18 W, 43-3 2 FL International -115.70 W, 42-0 3 Iowa State -302.37 W, 17-5 4 Pittsburgh 298.63 L, 20-21 5 Northwestern 140.28 L, 17-22 6 Michigan State 221.87 L, 13-16 7 Indiana -198.84 W, 45-9 8 Wisconsin 20.23 W, 38-16 10 Illinois -38.09 L, 24-27 11 Penn State 377.21 W, 24-23 12 Purdue -106.90 W, 22-17 13 Minnesota 19.84 W, 55-0	South Carolina (7-5)______SEC_____100.68 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 NC State 84.85 W, 34-0 2 Vanderbilt 26.46 L, 17-24 3 Georgia 232.43 L, 7-14 4 Wofford -417.59 W, 23-13 5 UAB -158.62 W, 26-13 6 Mississippi 183.12 W, 31-24 7 Kentucky -18.78 W, 24-17 8 LSU 61.99 L, 17-24 10 Tennessee -88.95 W, 27-6 11 Arkansas -38.58 W, 34-21 12 Florida 473.27 L, 6-56 14 Clemson 131.25 L, 14-31

Nothing too spectacular about these two's schedules. Both beat a solid opponent, Penn State and Mississippi, but lost to some bad ones too. South Carolina has the advantage in overall SoS.

Stats Matchup
Team	Iowa	South Carolina
Points (rank)	150.39 (#36)	100.68 (#45)
Record	8-4	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	-109.03 (#64)	453.79 (#32)
Opp. Record	71-62	75-59
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	30.0 (123%)	21.7 (96%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	13.3 (48%)	20.3 (79%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	189.3 (129%)	98.3 (70%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	98.3 (68%)	128.7 (91%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	184.6 (86%)	218.5 (112%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	191.3 (87%)	160.3 (81%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	373.9 (104%)	316.8 (94%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	289.5 (79%)	288.9 (83%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	127.7 (100%)	123.8 (103%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	102.9 (84%)	106.8 (83%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	3.9 / 33.0	5.4 / 45.0
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / +6	2.8 / -9

Iowa likes to control the ball and will most likely win the time of possession by a healthy margin. They're also better in the turnover and penalty departments. There's just something about the Hawkeyes that I'm not sure of though... The Gamecocks aren't an attractive pick either, unfortunately. Tricky one.

The Line: South Carolina +4

The Call: Iowa by 7

The Result: Iowa 31-10

Iowa flew under the radar a lot this year, but they were a really good team. South Carolina has issues, to say the least - will they ever become an elite team, even for one season? I have doubts.

Georgia - Michigan State

the Capital One Bowl Thursday, January 1st, 1:00pm Orlando, Florida

Georgia (9-3)______SEC______230.80 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Georgia Southern -411.25 W, 45-21 2 Central Michigan 71.02 W, 56-17 3 South Carolina 93.53 W, 14-7 4 Arizona State -85.25 W, 27-10 5 Alabama 390.74 L, 30-41 7 Tennessee -88.95 W, 26-14 8 Vanderbilt 26.46 W, 24-14 9 LSU 61.99 W, 52-38 10 Florida 473.27 L, 10-49 11 Kentucky -18.78 W, 42-38 12 Auburn -69.61 W, 17-13 14 Georgia Tech 287.66 L, 42-45

Michigan State (9-3)______Big10_____220.54 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 California 210.56 L, 31-38 2 Eastern Michigan -260.95 W, 42-10 3 Florida Atlantic -0.99 W, 17-0 4 Notre Dame 22.24 W, 23-7 5 Indiana -198.84 W, 42-29 6 Iowa 152.73 W, 16-13 7 Northwestern 140.28 W, 37-20 8 Ohio State 306.46 L, 7-45 9 Michigan -204.93 W, 35-21 10 Wisconsin 20.23 W, 25-24 11 Purdue -106.90 W, 21-7 13 Penn State 377.21 L, 18-49

Both of these two underperformed in their three biggest games of the season this year - who can break the streak?

Stats Matchup
Team	Georgia	Michigan State
Points (rank)	230.80 (#19)	220.54 (#20)
Record	9-3	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	723.25 (#22)	377.84 (#36)
Opp. Record	82-53	78-66
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	32.1 (158%)	26.2 (117%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	25.6 (106%)	21.9 (80%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	153.9 (123%)	138.4 (93%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	129.9 (79%)	147.6 (86%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	280.0 (152%)	214.0 (110%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	188.4 (103%)	210.3 (105%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	433.9 (139%)	352.4 (104%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	318.3 (96%)	357.9 (96%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	129.7 (105%)	118.5 (99%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	143.0 (114%)	132.2 (115%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	8.8 / 73.8	5.1 / 45.8
TO's / TO Margin	1.4 / -2	1.8 / +1

The Michigan State offense isn't nearly as powerful as the Georgia offense, but they might be able to take advantage of the Dawg miscues when they happen (and they probably will). It probably won't be enough though.

The Line: Georgia -7.5

The Call: Georgia by 13

The Result: Georgia 24-12

Well, the Dawgs had their miscues, but the Spartans weren't able to convert. Simple as that. I know a lot of UGA fans are upset at the way this year went, and I can see that, since they started with such high expectations, but they still had a hell of a year overall. Michigan State improved a bunch this year as well - it'll be interesting to see if they can keep it up next year.

Nebraska - Clemson

the Gator Bowl Thursday, January 1st, 1:00pm Jacksonville, Florida

Nebraska (8-4)______Big12______152.75 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Western Michigan 162.61 W, 47-24 2 San Jose State -37.59 W, 35-12 3 New Mexico State -272.23 W, 38-7 5 Virginia Tech 283.88 L, 30-35 6 Missouri 241.88 L, 17-52 7 Texas Tech 393.71 L, 31-37 8 Iowa State -302.37 W, 35-7 9 Baylor -103.46 W, 32-20 10 Oklahoma 557.08 L, 28-62 11 Kansas 94.61 W, 45-35 12 Kansas State -87.46 W, 56-28 14 Colorado -45.33 W, 40-31

Clemson (7-5)______ACC_____128.12 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Alabama 390.74 L, 10-34 2 The Citadel -434.61 W, 45-17 3 NC State 84.85 W, 27-9 4 South Carolina State -465.67 W, 54-0 5 Maryland 63.32 L, 17-20 7 Wake Forest 268.32 L, 7-12 8 Georgia Tech 287.66 L, 17-21 10 Boston College 270.02 W, 27-21 11 Florida State 246.20 L, 27-41 12 Duke -78.05 W, 31-7 13 Virginia 42.51 W, 13-3 14 South Carolina 93.53 W, 31-14

Different seasons for these two - Nebraska beat who they should've but lost the big ones, while Clemson was more up and down. Overall they both played pretty tough schedules.

Stats Matchup
Team	Nebraska	Clemson
Points (rank)	152.75 (#35)	128.12 (#39)
Record	8-4	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	752.95 (#20)	643.99 (#25)
Opp. Record	82-65	74-52
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	36.2 (138%)	25.5 (105%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	29.2 (92%)	16.6 (72%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	173.5 (115%)	120.5 (80%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	125.8 (99%)	127.6 (89%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	284.8 (127%)	218.8 (113%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	235.7 (91%)	167.3 (93%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	458.3 (121%)	339.3 (100%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	361.5 (91%)	294.8 (93%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	142.9 (126%)	112.0 (93%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	141.8 (107%)	125.8 (104%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	7.2 / 59.9	5.4 / 47.3
TO's / TO Margin	2.1 / -10	2.3 / -2

Should be interesting to watch the Cornhusker offense against the Clemson D - if they can produce like they normally do, Nebraska should be fine. If not, Clemson might roll. Both cough the ball up a good bit and penalties might come into play, but it could be a close one.

The Line: Nebraska +2.5

The Call: Nebraska by 3

The Result: Nebraska 26-21

Clemson's inability to run the ball was their undoing here. Still, considering the nosedive their year took in the first half of the season, making it back to this point is encouraging. Nebraska is making some Big12 waves and might take over the top spot in the north next year, but it remains to be seen if they can compete with the south.

Oregon St - Pittsburgh

the Sun Bowl Wednesday, December 31st, 2:00pm El Paso, Texas
Oregon State (8-4)______Pac10______190.34 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Stanford -39.49 L, 28-36 2 Penn State 377.21 L, 14-45 3 Hawaii -18.05 W, 45-7 5 USC 414.85 W, 27-21 6 Utah 439.63 L, 28-31 7 Washington State -320.76 W, 66-13 8 Washington -411.26 W, 34-13 10 Arizona State -85.25 W, 27-25 11 UCLA -134.45 W, 34-6 12 California 210.56 W, 34-21 13 Arizona 99.59 W, 19-17 14 Oregon 219.93 L, 38-65	Pittsburgh (9-3)______BigEast_____277.72 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Bowling Green -53.21 L, 17-27 2 Buffalo 92.47 W, 27-16 4 Iowa 152.73 W, 21-20 5 Syracuse -168.29 W, 34-24 6 South Florida 118.11 W, 26-21 8 Navy 146.36 W, 42-21 9 Rutgers 167.40 L, 34-54 10 Notre Dame 22.24 W, 36-33 11 Louisville -77.32 W, 41-7 13 Cincinnati 356.33 L, 21-28 14 West Virginia 217.96 W, 19-15 15 Connecticut 116.33 W, 34-10

Similar seasons for these two - both knocked off a conference heavy, USC & West Virginia, respectively, but lost to bad teams, Stanford and Bowling Green, respectively. Overall though, Oregon State is in much worse shape - they had their sights set on Pasadena and end up in El Paso without their two biggest offensive weapons. Not good.

Stats Matchup
Team	Oregon State	Pittsburgh
Points (rank)	190.34 (#28)	277.72 (#13)
Record	8-4	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	577.10 (#28)	857.74 (#15)
Opp. Record	81-65	84-62
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	32.8 (159%)	29.3 (142%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	25.0 (86%)	23.0 (90%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	164.6 (119%)	143.3 (111%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	134.8 (80%)	127.8 (75%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	253.7 (135%)	212.9 (108%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	188.6 (92%)	193.0 (99%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	418.3 (129%)	356.2 (107%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	323.3 (88%)	320.8 (88%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	139.7 (115%)	118.3 (96%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	147.6 (119%)	136.7 (119%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	6.7 / 57.5	4.6 / 35.4
TO's / TO Margin	1.5 / +2	2.1 / -4

Can't really go by the stats here - I like the Panthers to attack and stuff the Beavers at the line.

The Line: Oregon State -2.5

The Call: Pittsburgh by 10

The Result: Oregon State 3-0

3-0? It didn't seem that bad, but in retrospect... Props to the Beavers for hanging in there and getting it done, somehow. Pitt has to be wondering why they couldn't even get a field goal in this one.

Boston College - Vanderbilt

the Music City Bowl Wednesday, December 31st, 3:30pm Nashville, Tennessee

Boston College (9-4)______ACC______253.65 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Kent State -211.55 W, 21-0 2 Georgia Tech 287.66 L, 16-19 4 Central Florida -163.23 W, 34-7 5 Rhode Island -414.12 W, 42-0 6 NC State 84.85 W, 38-31 8 Virginia Tech 283.88 W, 28-23 9 North Carolina 228.73 L, 24-45 10 Clemson 131.25 L, 21-27 11 Notre Dame 22.24 W, 17-0 12 Florida State 246.20 W, 27-17 13 Wake Forest 268.32 W, 24-21 14 Maryland 63.32 W, 28-21 15 Virginia Tech 283.88 L, 12-30

Vanderbilt (6-6)______SEC_____23.15 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Miami (OH) -366.25 W, 34-13 2 South Carolina 93.53 W, 24-17 3 Rice 164.11 W, 38-21 4 Mississippi 183.12 W, 23-17 6 Auburn -69.61 W, 14-13 7 Mississippi State -140.39 L, 14-17 8 Georgia 232.43 L, 14-24 9 Duke -78.05 L, 7-10 11 Florida 473.27 L, 14-42 12 Kentucky -18.78 W, 31-24 13 Tennessee -88.95 L, 10-20 14 Wake Forest 268.32 L, 10-23 ____ ____ ____ ____

On paper, this one's quite the mismatch. Both BC and Vandy have played pretty tough schedules this year, but the Eagles have performed much better, even though they lost the ACC championship game. The Commodores eeked out a bowl spot, going 1-3 in their last 4 games.

Stats Matchup
Team	Boston College	Vanderbilt
Points (rank)	253.65 (#17)	23.15 (#59)
Record	9-4	6-6
Opp. Points (rank)	957.98 (#9)	596.49 (#27)
Opp. Record	84-63	79-66
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	25.5 (117%)	19.4 (88%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	18.5 (79%)	20.1 (81%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	143.0 (101%)	138.2 (101%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	92.2 (61%)	145.0 (110%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	175.5 (91%)	122.8 (65%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	181.2 (103%)	173.7 (80%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	318.5 (96%)	260.9 (79%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	273.4 (85%)	318.7 (92%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	136.6 (126%)	125.3 (109%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	147.3 (126%)	106.0 (83%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.4 / 36.9	4.7 / 39.4
TO's / TO Margin	2.3 / +6	1.8 / +6

Neither offense is spectacular, but they get the job done most of the time. It could be a bit sloppy...

The Line: Vanderbilt +3.5

The Call: Boston College by 13

The Result: Vanderbilt 16-14

The Eagles were the sloppy ones here, committing three TO's to Vandy's none. And while they held the Commodores to under 200 yards total offense, Vandy was the one who made their work count. First bowl win in decades - gotta feel good.

Kansas - Minnesota

the Insight Bowl Wednesday, December 31st, 6:00pm Tempe, Arizona

Kansas (7-5)______Big12______81.58 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 FL International -115.70 W, 40-10 2 Louisiana Tech 29.99 W, 29-0 3 South Florida 118.11 L, 34-37 4 Sam Houston State -417.98 W, 38-14 6 Iowa State -302.37 W, 35-33 7 Colorado -45.33 W, 30-14 8 Oklahoma 557.08 L, 31-45 9 Texas Tech 393.71 L, 21-63 10 Kansas State -87.46 W, 52-21 11 Nebraska 157.90 L, 35-45 12 Texas 462.59 L, 7-35 14 Missouri 241.88 W, 40-37

Minnesota (7-5)______Big10_____19.39 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Northern Illinois -61.88 W, 31-27 2 Bowling Green -53.21 W, 42-17 3 Montana State -458.35 W, 35-23 4 Florida Atlantic -0.99 W, 37-3 5 Ohio State 306.46 L, 21-34 6 Indiana -198.84 W, 16-7 7 Illinois -38.09 W, 27-20 9 Purdue -106.90 W, 17-6 10 Northwestern 140.28 L, 17-24 11 Michigan -204.93 L, 6-29 12 Wisconsin 20.23 L, 32-35 13 Iowa 152.73 L, 0-55

Minnesota was looking good, starting the season at 7-1 - then they went and lost their last 4. Kansas on the other hand won their last 6 to get their bowl berth. I know there's a lot of lag time between the end of the season & the bowls, but that's gotta count for something.

Stats Matchup
Team	Kansas	Minnesota
Points (rank)	81.58 (#49)	19.39 (#60)
Record	7-5	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	786.95 (#19)	-471.50 (#84)
Opp. Record	82-53	67-67
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	32.7 (117%)	23.4 (101%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	29.5 (90%)	23.3 (99%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	128.9 (90%)	105.8 (67%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	126.7 (83%)	146.8 (99%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	302.3 (127%)	216.4 (111%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	275.5 (105%)	231.6 (124%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	431.3 (114%)	322.3 (92%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	402.2 (97%)	378.4 (110%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	100.3 (73%)	125.8 (118%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	134.8 (97%)	116.4 (100%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.8 / 45.3	6.3 / 54.5
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / +3	1.5 / +12

The Jayhawks have the edge in a lot of categories and should be able to throw the ball pretty easily. The Gophers will get their share of yards through the air too, but it won't be enough.

The Line: Kansas -9

The Call: Kansas by 13

The Result: Kansas 42-21

Yup.

LSU - Georgia Tech

the Chick-Fil-A Bowl Wednesday, December 31st, 7:30pm Atlanta, Georgia

LSU (7-5)______SEC______60.71 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Appalachian State -415.03 W, 41-13 3 North Texas -394.54 W, 41-3 4 Auburn -69.61 W, 26-21 5 Mississippi State -140.39 W, 34-24 7 Florida 473.27 L, 21-51 8 South Carolina 93.53 W, 24-17 9 Georgia 232.43 L, 38-52 10 Tulane -316.49 W, 35-10 11 Alabama 390.74 L, 21-27 12 Troy 51.79 W, 40-31 13 Mississippi 183.12 L, 13-31 14 Arkansas -38.58 L, 30-31

Georgia Tech (9-3)______ACC_____276.75 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Jacksonville State -407.25 W, 41-14 2 Boston College 270.02 W, 19-16 3 Virginia Tech 283.88 L, 17-20 4 Mississippi State -140.39 W, 38-7 6 Duke -78.05 W, 27-0 7 Gardner-Webb -412.09 W, 10-7 8 Clemson 131.25 W, 21-17 9 Virginia 42.51 L, 17-24 10 Florida State 246.20 W, 31-28 11 North Carolina 228.73 L, 7-28 13 Miami (FL) 118.06 W, 41-23 14 Georgia 232.43 W, 45-42

A supremely disappointing year in Baton Rouge, while the Atlanta folks are thrilled with their new coach and his spread offense. LSU didn't beat anyone of note this year, while Georgia Tech has some solid wins on its resume - advantage Yellow Jackets. Against similar opponents, Tech rolled Georgia and Miss. State, while LSU lost to the Dawgs and were average against the Bulldogs.

Stats Matchup
Team	LSU	Georgia Tech
Points (rank)	60.71 (#53)	276.75 (#14)
Record	7-5	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	52.95 (#52)	428.06 (#34)
Opp. Record	73-62	70-54
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	30.3 (131%)	26.2 (114%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	25.9 (105%)	18.8 (83%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	167.3 (120%)	282.3 (232%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	105.7 (71%)	116.9 (95%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	204.5 (110%)	95.0 (47%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	220.8 (106%)	195.8 (101%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	371.8 (113%)	377.3 (117%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	326.5 (91%)	312.7 (100%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	123.8 (92%)	101.3 (81%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	143.7 (117%)	101.2 (85%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	6.3 / 49.1	4.9 / 44.2
TO's / TO Margin	1.7 / -4	2.0 / +5

As with other matchups this year, the LSU D is going to have to find some way to stop the Georgia Tech running attack. If they can't, they'll be in for a long night.

The Line: LSU +4.5

The Call: Georgia Tech by 10

The Result: LSU 38-3

Wow, talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Over and over and over. LSU had problems this year, but they were obviously good enough to cause and capitalize on the plethora of mistakes that the Yellow Jackets made throughout the game.

Oklahoma St - Oregon

the Pacific Life Holiday Bowl Tuesday, December 30th, 8:00pm San Diego, California

Oklahoma State (9-3)______Big12______216.63 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Washington State -320.71 W, 39-13 2 Houston 68.00 W, 56-37 3 Missouri State -425.73 W, 57-13 5 Troy 76.73 W, 55-24 6 Texas A&M -153.02 W, 56-28 7 Missouri 198.41 W, 28-23 8 Baylor -102.00 W, 34-6 9 Texas 445.80 L, 24-28 10 Iowa State -312.39 W, 59-17 11 Texas Tech 382.54 L, 20-56 12 Colorado -63.26 W, 30-17 14 Oklahoma 528.65 L, 41-61

Oregon (9-3)______Pac10_____207.78 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Washington -422.21 W, 44-10 2 Utah State -184.14 W, 66-24 3 Purdue -107.74 W, 32-26 4 Boise State 376.20 L, 32-37 5 Washington State -320.71 W, 63-14 6 USC 398.66 L, 10-44 7 UCLA -139.33 W, 31-24 9 Arizona State -95.17 W, 54-20 10 California 160.52 L, 16-26 11 Stanford -56.12 W, 35-28 12 Arizona 33.99 W, 55-45 14 Oregon State 190.34 W, 65-38

One of the better pre-New Year's Day matchups, these two had really good seasons but were a bit overshadowed by others in their conferences. Oregon ended the year with a bang, beating down Oregon State, and a lot of people have overlooked their offense, which is pretty amazing considering the problems they've had with personnel this year. Oklahoma State performed admirably in a pretty rough conference, but their only really good win was over Missouri.

Stats Matchup
Team	Oklahoma State	Oregon
Points (rank)	216.63 (#23)	207.78 (#25)
Record	9-3	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	323.01 (#40)	-165.70 (#68)
Opp. Record	75-61	69-76
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	41.6 (148%)	41.9 (186%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	26.9 (84%)	28.0 (105%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	256.0 (187%)	277.8 (203%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	123.8 (100%)	119.4 (87%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	233.3 (98%)	200.3 (108%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	268.5 (93%)	263.6 (125%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	489.3 (127%)	478.2 (145%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	392.3 (93%)	383.0 (108%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	149.3 (122%)	133.0 (109%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	172.8 (136%)	129.4 (101%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	6.6 / 55.4	7.4 / 64.3
TO's / TO Margin	1.5 / +5	2.0 / +5

We can look at the stats here, but they don't seem to favor one over the other. The story seems to be the turf, since neither team normally plays on natural grass and because the field has hosted two other games in the past week and might be in pretty bad shape. Both of these offenses revolve around the running game, but whoever can pass better might have an a big advantage here. Going against the grain with this one...

The Line: Oregon +3

The Call: Oregon by 4

The Result: Oregon 42-31

A supremely entertaining game - props to both teams. Great back and forth in the 3rd quarter there, better D than I thought we'd see, big hits, solid performances. The Cowboys have a lot to be proud of this year, even ending with a loss, and with a lot of underclassmen returning, they'll probably start next year in the top ten. If this was Bellotti's last game coaching the Ducks, it was a hell of a way to go out - well done.

NC State - Rutgers

the Papajohns.com Bowl Monday, December 29th, 3:00pm Birmingham, Alabama

NC State (6-6)______ACC______102.87 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 South Carolina 100.68 L, 0-34 2 William & Mary -427.82 W, 34-24 3 Clemson 128.12 L, 9-27 4 East Carolina 198.86 W, 30-24 5 South Florida 82.51 L, 10-41 6 Boston College 253.65 L, 31-38 8 Florida State 210.67 L, 17-26 9 Maryland 52.23 L, 24-27 11 Duke -80.04 W, 27-17 12 Wake Forest 218.86 W, 21-17 13 North Carolina 231.66 W, 41-10 14 Miami (FL) 126.74 W, 38-28

Rutgers (7-5)______BigEast_____118.18 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Fresno State 63.06 L, 7-24 3 North Carolina 231.66 L, 12-44 4 Navy 147.23 L, 21-23 5 Morgan State -427.91 W, 38-0 6 West Virginia 144.18 L, 17-24 7 Cincinnati 331.88 L, 10-13 8 Connecticut 103.31 W, 12-10 9 Pittsburgh 277.72 W, 54-34 11 Syracuse -173.35 W, 35-17 12 South Florida 82.51 W, 49-16 13 Army -273.81 W, 30-3 15 Louisville -82.22 W, 63-14

Both NC State and Rutgers had some solid wins over bowl teams this season, though it had to be a bit of a disappointment for both. Rutgers seems to be regressing a bit, while NC State expected better things from O'Brien. But, overall, solid seasons.

Stats Matchup
Team	NC State	Rutgers
Points (rank)	102.87 (#44)	118.18 (#41)
Record	6-6	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	1,096.12 (#4)	424.25 (#35)
Opp. Record	80-55	76-58
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	23.5 (111%)	29.0 (125%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	26.1 (119%)	18.5 (72%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	125.5 (93%)	128.8 (95%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	144.3 (118%)	139.0 (78%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	200.8 (105%)	266.3 (135%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	242.8 (128%)	184.9 (106%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	326.3 (101%)	395.2 (117%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	387.1 (121%)	323.9 (93%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	132.7 (112%)	110.4 (86%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	128.5 (108%)	129.9 (109%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	5.8 / 45.6	4.7 / 40.8
TO's / TO Margin	1.3 / +11	1.6 / -2

Both played a pretty hard schedule this year, the Wolfpack's coming in at #4. But they've had a problem with their D all year, allowing more of everything than their opponents usually gain. The Scarlet Knights should be able to move the ball, but they'll have to take care of it...

The Line: NC State +7

The Call: NC State by 3

The Result: Rutgers 29-23

Props to Rutgers for finishing the season well and ending with seven straight wins after starting 1-5. They could've given up in October, but their perserverence paid off in a big way - they'll be better for it next year. Another rough go-around for the Wolfpack, and I don't know that O'Brien (or anyone) will be able to turn them around anytime soon.

Missouri - Northwestern

the Valero Alamo Bowl Monday, December 29th, 8:00pm San Antonio, Texas

Missouri (9-4)______Big12______198.41 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Illinois -34.66 W, 52-42 2 SE Missouri State -426.13 W, 52-3 3 Nevada 34.12 W, 69-17 4 Buffalo 91.13 W, 42-21 6 Nebraska 152.75 W, 52-17 7 Oklahoma State 216.63 L, 23-28 8 Texas 445.80 L, 31-56 9 Colorado -63.26 W, 58-0 10 Baylor -102.00 W, 31-28 11 Kansas State -95.57 W, 41-24 12 Iowa State -312.39 W, 52-20 14 Kansas 81.58 L, 37-40 15 Oklahoma 528.65 L, 21-62

Northwestern (9-3)______Big10_____163.02 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Syracuse -173.35 W, 30-10 2 Duke -80.04 W, 24-20 3 Southern Illinois -426.91 W, 33-7 4 Ohio -164.35 W, 16-8 5 Iowa 150.39 W, 22-17 7 Michigan State 220.54 L, 20-37 8 Purdue -107.74 W, 48-26 9 Indiana -210.04 L, 19-21 10 Minnesota 19.39 W, 24-17 11 Ohio State 310.08 L, 10-45 12 Michigan -203.81 W, 21-14 13 Illinois -34.66 W, 27-10 ____ ____ ____ ____

Lots of things went right for Missouri this year, but they were expected to do more after the success they had last season. On the other hand, Northwestern had a great season, exceeding their expectations. Both beat some good teams, but lost to the big conference ones they faced.

Stats Matchup
Team	Missouri	Northwestern
Points (rank)	198.41 (#27)	163.02 (#32)
Record	9-4	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	516.63 (#29)	-700.52 (#96)
Opp. Record	83-64	60-73
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	43.2 (154%)	24.5 (101%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	27.5 (78%)	19.3 (83%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	157.1 (112%)	147.6 (96%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	128.9 (75%)	127.7 (92%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	340.4 (138%)	209.4 (103%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	285.3 (116%)	215.3 (113%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	497.5 (128%)	357.0 (100%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	414.2 (99%)	343.0 (104%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	129.8 (96%)	96.3 (81%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	163.2 (137%)	116.8 (91%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.0 / 37.8	4.5 / 43.3
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / -2	2.3 / -5

All the stats are in the Tigers' favor - they should be able to overpower the Wildcats pretty easily.

The Line: Northwestern +12.5

The Call: Missouri by 17

The Result: Missouri 30-23 (OT)

And that's why you can't base picks on stats and that's why they play the games. Daniel had an off game and the Mizzou offense suffered because of it. But they had enough in the tank to take care of the Wildcats, who seemed to implode a bit in the second half. Good game overall. (I can do without the umpteen shots of Daniel's family in the stands though - jeez.)

California - Miami (FL)

the Emerald Bowl Saturday, December 27th, 8:00pm San Francisco, California

Miami (FL) (7-5)______ACC______126.74 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Charleston Southern -490.64 W, 52-7 2 Florida 472.96 L, 3-26 4 Texas A&M -153.02 W, 41-23 5 North Carolina 231.66 L, 24-28 6 Florida State 210.67 L, 39-41 7 Central Florida -175.59 W, 20-14 8 Duke -80.04 W, 49-31 9 Wake Forest 218.86 W, 16-10 10 Virginia 36.10 W, 24-17 12 Virginia Tech 274.79 W, 16-14 13 Georgia Tech 276.75 L, 23-41 14 NC State 102.87 L, 28-38

California (8-4)______Pac10_____160.52 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Michigan State 220.54 W, 38-31 2 Washington State -320.71 W, 66-3 3 Maryland 52.23 L, 27-35 5 Colorado State -1.56 W, 42-7 6 Arizona State -95.17 W, 24-14 8 Arizona 33.99 L, 27-42 9 UCLA -139.33 W, 41-20 10 Oregon 207.78 W, 26-16 11 USC 398.66 L, 3-17 12 Oregon State 190.34 L, 21-34 13 Stanford -56.12 W, 37-16 15 Washington -422.21 W, 48-7

Both Cal & Miami had some big wins this year, the Bears over Michigan State and Oregon, and the Canes over Virginia Tech & Wake Forest. Otherwise they'd be just mediocre. Solid overall seasons though.

Stats Matchup
Team	Miami (FL)	California
Points (rank)	126.74 (#40)	160.52 (#33)
Record	7-5	8-4
Opp. Points (rank)	925.36 (#12)	68.45 (#51)
Opp. Record	77-59	72-73
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	27.9 (119%)	33.3 (122%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	24.2 (103%)	20.2 (80%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	130.1 (90%)	183.7 (110%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	146.4 (101%)	122.5 (80%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	197.0 (99%)	195.5 (103%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	169.3 (92%)	192.9 (96%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	327.1 (94%)	379.2 (106%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	315.8 (96%)	315.4 (88%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	111.7 (97%)	141.7 (119%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	110.3 (85%)	148.6 (120%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	5.9 / 47.9	6.3 / 53.3
TO's / TO Margin	1.9 / -9	1.5 / +14

These two are pretty even when it comes to their stats - pretty much everything hovering around 100%. But Cal has a big edge when it comes to turnovers, +14 to -9. That might be the difference in this one.

The Line: Miami (FL) +8.5

The Call: Cal wins, but Miami covers the spread.

The Result: California 24-17

What a great game to get my picking back on track with. Riley has to be hurt for Longshore to have stayed in the whole game, playing as badly as he did. Tough break for the Hurricanes, but they're on the right track and will be even better next year.

Wisconsin - Florida St

the Champs Sports Bowl Saturday, December 27th, 4:30pm Orlando, Florida

Florida State (8-4)______ACC______210.67 Wk Opp oPts Score 2 Western Carolina -425.86 W, 69-0 3 Chattanooga -437.89 W, 46-7 4 Wake Forest 218.86 L, 3-12 5 Colorado -63.26 W, 39-21 6 Miami (FL) 126.74 W, 41-39 8 NC State 102.87 W, 26-17 9 Virginia Tech 274.79 W, 30-20 10 Georgia Tech 276.75 L, 28-31 11 Clemson 128.12 W, 41-27 12 Boston College 253.65 L, 17-27 13 Maryland 52.23 W, 37-3 14 Florida 472.96 L, 15-45

Wisconsin (7-5)______Big10_____43.18 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Akron -99.62 W, 38-17 2 Marshall -148.36 W, 51-14 3 Fresno State 63.06 W, 13-10 5 Michigan -203.81 L, 25-27 6 Ohio State 310.08 L, 17-20 7 Penn State 373.36 L, 7-48 8 Iowa 150.39 L, 16-38 9 Illinois -34.66 W, 27-17 10 Michigan State 220.54 L, 24-25 11 Indiana -210.04 W, 55-20 12 Minnesota 19.39 W, 35-32 13 Cal Poly SLO -403.62 W, 36-35

The only real blip on the screen here is Wisconsin's loss to Michigan. Other than that, both the Badgers & Seminoles beat who they should've and lost to who they should've.

Stats Matchup
Team	Florida State	Wisconsin
Points (rank)	210.67 (#24)	43.18 (#55)
Record	8-4	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	979.96 (#8)	36.69 (#55)
Opp. Record	78-48	73-61
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	32.7 (142%)	28.7 (115%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	20.8 (81%)	25.3 (109%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	182.8 (133%)	212.0 (150%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	126.8 (81%)	133.3 (93%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	185.8 (92%)	192.8 (90%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	164.9 (91%)	189.1 (95%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	368.7 (109%)	404.8 (113%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	291.8 (88%)	322.3 (92%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	122.6 (110%)	116.4 (95%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	149.3 (125%)	143.5 (117%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	7.9 / 71.0	5.6 / 49.3
TO's / TO Margin	2.2 / -3	2.3 / -5

The weather should be fine in Orlando, but expect these two to run a lot more than they'll pass. With the penalties & TO's, it might be exciting/ugly.

The Line: Wisconsin +5.5

The Call: Florida State by 7

The Result: Florida State 42-13

Total effort from the Seminoles here, and they're a young team - they'll be able to build on this and the expectation of an ACC title next year is going to be a hard one to fight. But we'll see... Wisconsin still has a long way to go, and this was an especially rough finish to the season that saw them fall the last few months. Things arent't looking good for the Big10.

N. Carolina - W. Virginia

the Meineke Car Care Bowl Saturday, December 27th, 1:00pm Detroit, Michigan

North Carolina (8-4)______ACC______231.66 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 McNeese State -418.12 W, 35-27 3 Rutgers 118.18 W, 44-12 4 Virginia Tech 274.79 L, 17-20 5 Miami (FL) 126.74 W, 28-24 6 Connecticut 103.31 W, 38-12 7 Notre Dame -7.99 W, 29-24 8 Virginia 36.10 L, 13-16 9 Boston College 253.65 W, 45-24 11 Georgia Tech 276.75 W, 28-7 12 Maryland 52.23 L, 15-17 13 NC State 102.87 L, 10-41 14 Duke -80.04 W, 28-20

West Virginia (8-4)______BigEast_____144.18 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Villanova -423.32 W, 48-21 2 East Carolina 198.86 L, 3-24 4 Colorado -63.26 L, 14-17 5 Marshall -148.36 W, 27-3 6 Rutgers 118.18 W, 24-17 7 Syracuse -173.35 W, 17-6 9 Auburn -77.38 W, 34-17 10 Connecticut 103.31 W, 35-13 11 Cincinnati 331.88 L, 23-26 13 Louisville -82.22 W, 35-21 14 Pittsburgh 277.72 L, 15-19 15 South Florida 82.51 W, 13-7

Both of these two played a lot of solid teams throughout the year, going 8-4 against them. But UNC had the harder SoS and one of the toughest in the nation, so they get the edge.

Stats Matchup
Team	North Carolina	West Virginia
Points (rank)	231.66 (#18)	144.18 (#38)
Record	8-4	8-4
Opp. Points (rank)	838.47 (#16)	144.56 (#48)
Opp. Record	75-60	72-63
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	27.5 (135%)	24.0 (101%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	20.3 (100%)	15.9 (74%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	125.1 (94%)	217.2 (166%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	140.8 (100%)	134.8 (99%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	192.3 (102%)	135.3 (65%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	217.2 (120%)	190.7 (102%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	317.3 (97%)	352.5 (102%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	357.9 (111%)	325.5 (99%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	140.0 (119%)	111.4 (90%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	114.3 (95%)	122.9 (96%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.9 / 42.8	4.8 / 43.8
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / +6	1.2 / +12

I was all set to go with the Tar Heels here, but then I looked closer at the D stats - not too good. The only area they allow under their opponent's average is dST at 95% - everything else is over 100%. The Mountaineers D isn't stellar, but it's better than that. They're pretty disciplined teams too, which bodes well for a clean game. I don't like this pick much at all...

The Line: West Virginia -1.5

The Call: West Virginia by 4

The Result: West Virginia 31-30

The whole game I was wondering why Butch Davis wasn't ever going for the 2-pt conversion. You score a TD to go up 22-21 - what good is an extra point going to do for you? You score again to go up 29-24 - same situation, same bad decision. Argh. At any rate, you can't take anything away from West Virginia. What a way for Pat White to end his career. Solid.