Tulsa - Ball State

the GMAC Bowl Tuesday, January 6th, 8:00pm Mobile, Alabama

Tulsa (10-3)______CUSA______180.52 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 UAB -151.09 W, 45-22 2 North Texas -381.64 W, 56-26 4 New Mexico -123.28 W, 56-14 5 Central Arkansas -403.92 W, 62-34 6 Rice 220.67 W, 63-28 7 SMU -365.12 W, 37-31 8 UTEP -86.41 W, 77-35 9 Central Florida -159.79 W, 49-19 10 Arkansas -15.82 L, 23-30 12 Houston 122.76 L, 30-70 13 Tulane -308.79 W, 56-7 14 Marshall -127.88 W, 38-35 15 East Carolina 200.81 L, 24-27

Ball State (12-1)______MAC_____332.62 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Northeastern -449.50 W, 48-14 2 Navy 142.03 W, 35-23 3 Akron -103.45 W, 41-24 4 Indiana -199.41 W, 42-20 5 Kent State -213.78 W, 41-20 6 Toledo -235.02 W, 31-0 7 Western Kentucky -351.99 W, 24-7 9 Eastern Michigan -259.16 W, 38-16 11 Northern Illinois -60.77 W, 45-14 11 Miami (OH) -365.44 W, 31-16 13 Central Michigan 67.81 W, 31-24 13 Western Michigan 138.13 W, 45-22 15 Buffalo 66.37 L, 24-42

These two played the easiest and second easiest schedules in D-1A college football this year, but only Ball State had multiple good wins. Only one loss, in the MAC Championship, is solid too. Tulsa fell apart a bit at the end of the season, going 2-3 - can they finish strong?

Stats Matchup
Team	Tulsa	Ball State
Points (rank)	180.52 (#29)	332.62 (#10)
Record	10-3	12-1
Opp. Points (rank)	-1,862.17 (#120)	-1,737.09 (#119)
Opp. Record	55-91	61-86
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	47.4 (158%)	36.6 (134%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	29.1 (126%)	18.6 (74%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	254.8 (146%)	192.7 (119%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	133.5 (125%)	141.8 (88%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	310.2 (136%)	266.7 (126%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	257.7 (112%)	206.2 (101%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	565.1 (141%)	459.4 (120%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	391.2 (109%)	347.9 (96%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	137.8 (112%)	109.7 (90%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	176.7 (140%)	140.5 (124%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.7 / 39.8	2.8 / 26.8
TO's / TO Margin	2.3 / -8	1.2 / +8

Both can score, but Ball State has the better D by far. They also have the edge in penalties and turnovers. It might be a fun, high-scoring game, but I think the Cardinals will run away with it.

The Line: Tulsa -2.5

The Call: Ball State by 10

The Result: Tulsa 45-13

Or maybe Tulsa will. I guess if you're going to play in a torrential downpour, it's a good thing to be named the Hurricanes. Props to them for getting it done and on a great overall season. Ball State, like Alabama, rolled through the regular season only to drop their conference championship and bowl games. But still, they have a lot to be proud of, coming back from losing a star player, and rolling over most teams in their path. Great year.

Air Force - Houston

the Armed Forces Bowl Wednesday, December 31st, 12:00pm Fort Worth, Texas
Air Force (8-4)______MtnWest______116.54 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Southern Utah -416.15 W, 41-7 2 Wyoming -165.37 W, 23-3 3 Houston 78.17 W, 31-28 4 Utah 439.63 L, 23-30 6 Navy 146.36 L, 27-33 7 San Diego State -316.46 W, 35-10 8 UNLV -100.68 W, 29-28 9 New Mexico -128.09 W, 23-10 10 Army -266.12 W, 16-7 11 Colorado State 34.54 W, 38-17 12 Brigham Young 209.37 L, 24-38 13 TCU 350.14 L, 10-44	Houston (7-5)______CUSA_____68.00 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Southern U. -419.51 W, 55-3 2 Oklahoma State 222.81 L, 37-56 3 Air Force 131.54 L, 28-31 4 Colorado State 34.54 L, 25-28 5 East Carolina 209.48 W, 41-24 7 UAB -158.62 W, 45-20 8 SMU -370.81 W, 44-38 9 Marshall -136.98 L, 23-37 11 Tulane -316.49 W, 42-14 12 Tulsa 184.02 W, 70-30 13 UTEP -90.18 W, 42-37 14 Rice 164.11 L, 42-56

The Falcons have the edge here, barely playing a tougher schedule but beating better teams while not losing to mediocre ones like the Cougars did. The story here though is that this is a repeat game - Air Force beat Houston 31-28 back in week 3. Are they gonna be pumped to have to do it again?

Stats Matchup
Team	Air Force	Houston
Points (rank)	116.54 (#42)	68.00 (#51)
Record	8-4	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	-325.19 (#78)	-664.13 (#94)
Opp. Record	71-62	67-68
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	26.7 (103%)	41.2 (141%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	21.3 (74%)	31.2 (114%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	268.9 (193%)	161.0 (95%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	139.8 (81%)	169.5 (105%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	79.9 (37%)	414.1 (187%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	195.6 (104%)	249.1 (102%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	348.8 (93%)	575.1 (145%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	335.3 (88%)	418.6 (109%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	96.5 (81%)	135.1 (104%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	75.5 (65%)	155.1 (125%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	5.8 / 49.3	6.5 / 61.0
TO's / TO Margin	1.3 / +12	2.1 / -5

The Falcons will probably try to run the ball, since it's their strength, so if the Cougars can stop them or slow them down a bit, they'll have a good chance to win. Air Force has better takeaway stats though, so that might derail Houston's plans... I think we might see some revenge here.

The Line: Houston -3.5

The Call: Houston by 7

The Result: Houston 34-28

Yup. Well done, Cougars. Better luck next year, Falcons.

W. Michigan - Rice

the Texas Bowl Tuesday, December 30th, 8:00pm Houston, Texas

Western Michigan (9-3)______MAC______167.71 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Nebraska 152.75 L, 24-47 2 Northern Illinois -31.83 W, 29-26 3 Idaho -316.44 W, 51-28 4 Tennessee Tech -465.24 W, 41-7 5 Temple -96.01 W, 7-3 6 Ohio -164.35 W, 41-20 7 Buffalo 91.13 W, 34-28 8 Central Michigan 94.95 L, 28-38 10 Eastern Michigan -260.22 W, 31-10 11 Illinois -34.66 W, 23-17 12 Toledo -230.71 W, 27-17 13 Ball State 332.62 L, 22-45

Rice (9-3)______CUSA_____160.13 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 SMU -377.91 W, 56-27 2 Memphis -78.38 W, 42-35 3 Vanderbilt 23.15 L, 21-38 4 Texas 445.80 L, 10-52 5 North Texas -396.09 W, 77-20 6 Tulsa 180.52 L, 28-63 8 Southern Miss -33.64 W, 45-40 9 Tulane -317.47 W, 42-17 10 UTEP -94.41 W, 49-44 11 Army -273.81 W, 38-31 13 Marshall -148.36 W, 35-10 14 Houston 68.00 W, 56-42

Rice and Western Michigan have had pretty similar seasons, beating the teams that they should but losing to the good ones on their schedule. Both played relatively weak schedules, which doesn't help any here.

Stats Matchup
Team	Western Michigan	Rice
Points (rank)	167.71 (#31)	160.13 (#34)
Record	9-3	9-3
Opp. Points (rank)	-928.02 (#105)	-1,002.61 (#108)
Opp. Record	64-72	62-83
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	29.8 (104%)	41.6 (142%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	23.8 (87%)	34.9 (132%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	121.5 (69%)	144.4 (83%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	140.9 (102%)	192.9 (114%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	301.2 (140%)	327.8 (150%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	249.4 (111%)	273.8 (113%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	422.7 (110%)	472.3 (123%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	390.3 (104%)	466.8 (121%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	127.7 (98%)	132.9 (103%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	122.7 (100%)	153.1 (127%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	6.3 / 46.9	4.7 / 40.7
TO's / TO Margin	1.8 / -3	1.3 / +13

The Owls usually gain more yards and score more points, but they give up more too. The Broncos fall behind a bit in penalties & turnovers... Good, even matchup we've got here. Playing in Houston should favor Rice - that might be the difference.

The Line: Rice -2.5

The Call: Rice by 7

The Result: Rice 38-14

Nice, Owls - that was some beatdown. I'm happy for you, and am optimistic that you can upset one of the big BCS schools that scheduled you as a cupcake next year.

N. Illinois - LA Tech

the Independence Bowl Sunday, December 28th, 8:15pm Shreveport, Louisiana

Northern Illinois (6-6)______MAC______-31.83 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Minnesota 19.39 L, 27-31 2 Western Michigan 167.71 L, 26-29 4 Indiana State -495.23 W, 48-3 5 Eastern Michigan -260.22 W, 37-0 6 Tennessee -91.02 L, 9-13 7 Miami (OH) -359.91 W, 17-13 8 Toledo -230.71 W, 38-7 9 Bowling Green -47.49 W, 16-13 11 Ball State 332.62 L, 14-45 12 Central Michigan 94.95 L, 30-33 12 Kent State -204.26 W, 42-14 13 Navy 147.23 L, 0-16

Louisiana Tech (7-5)______WAC_____13.10 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Mississippi State -143.31 W, 22-14 2 Kansas 81.58 L, 0-29 4 SE Louisiana State -475.09 W, 41-26 6 Boise State 376.20 L, 3-38 7 Hawaii 12.83 L, 14-24 8 Idaho -316.44 W, 46-14 9 Army -273.81 L, 7-14 10 Fresno State 63.06 W, 38-35 11 San Jose State -37.52 W, 21-0 12 Utah State -184.14 W, 45-38 13 New Mexico State -269.98 W, 35-31 14 Nevada 34.12 L, 31-35

Both of these two played extremely weak schedules this season and only managed to go 7-5 & 6-6 - ugh. The one good win between them was LA Tech's over Fresno State, which isn't saying much.

Stats Matchup
Team	Northern Illinois	Louisiana Tech
Points (rank)	-31.83 (#66)	13.10 (#61)
Record	6-6	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	-926.95 (#104)	-1,132.51 (#112)
Opp. Record	67-68	61-74
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	25.3 (87%)	25.3 (80%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	18.1 (68%)	24.8 (104%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	172.8 (104%)	195.0 (132%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	141.2 (97%)	99.8 (75%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	162.0 (72%)	157.0 (71%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	162.5 (75%)	279.9 (130%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	334.8 (87%)	352.0 (92%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	303.7 (82%)	379.7 (107%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	96.2 (77%)	143.3 (111%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	100.0 (82%)	99.8 (82%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.7 / 41.7	6.1 / 53.6
TO's / TO Margin	1.3 / +4	1.6 / +7

Nothern Illinois' D should have a decent time of it against LA-Tech - they're decent, while the Tech O isn't. The Northern Illinois offense isn't much better though.

The Line: Even

The Call: Northern Illinois by 10

The Result: Louisiana Tech 17-10

Ah, what're you gonna do? Good win for Tech, tough loss for N. Illinois. Sorry I can't really get excited about this one.

Boise State - TCU

the S.D.C.C.U. Poinsettia Bowl Tuesday, December 23rd, 8:00pm New Orleans, Louisiana

Boise State (12-0)______WAC______376.20 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Idaho State -486.97 W, 49-7 3 Bowling Green -47.49 W, 20-7 4 Oregon 207.78 W, 37-32 6 Louisiana Tech 13.10 W, 38-3 7 Southern Miss -33.64 W, 24-7 8 Hawaii 12.83 W, 27-7 9 San Jose State -37.52 W, 33-16 10 New Mexico State -269.98 W, 49-0 11 Utah State -184.14 W, 49-14 12 Idaho -316.44 W, 45-10 13 Nevada 34.12 W, 41-34 14 Fresno State 63.06 W, 61-10

TCU (10-2)______MtnWest_____272.51 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 New Mexico -142.13 W, 26-3 2 Stephen F. Austin -424.52 W, 67-7 3 Stanford -56.12 W, 31-14 4 SMU -377.91 W, 48-7 5 Oklahoma 528.65 L, 10-35 6 San Diego State -330.21 W, 41-7 7 Colorado State -1.56 W, 13-7 8 Brigham Young 220.45 W, 32-7 9 Wyoming -173.43 W, 54-7 10 UNLV -108.41 W, 44-14 11 Utah 423.50 L, 10-13 13 Air Force 116.54 W, 44-10

Sure the Broncos were undefeated this year, but they didn't have to play the likes of Oklahoma or Utah. Lots of big wins by both of these two... it'll be interesting to see who can hold it together in a close game, if that's the way it goes.

Stats Matchup
Team	Boise State	TCU
Points (rank)	376.20 (#8)	272.51 (#16)
Record	12-0	10-2
Opp. Points (rank)	-1,045.29 (#109)	-325.16 (#77)
Opp. Record	63-72	69-65
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	39.4 (135%)	35.0 (126%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	12.3 (43%)	10.9 (38%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	162.7 (101%)	215.7 (132%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	104.9 (72%)	48.7 (24%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	294.1 (133%)	201.4 (95%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	189.6 (92%)	166.4 (73%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	456.8 (119%)	417.1 (111%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	294.5 (79%)	215.1 (56%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	100.3 (76%)	108.4 (88%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	140.8 (114%)	126.2 (109%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	7.4 / 67.8	9.1 / 78.1
TO's / TO Margin	2.0 / +7	1.1 / +13

Everybody's been raving about the TCU defense, and they're good, don't get me wrong, but the Boise State D is almost as tough. They're allowing under 13 points and 300 yards a game, which is stellar, even against their weak schedule. Keep an eye on one area though - special teams. Both teams average under what their opponents allow, and their dST allows a lot more than teams average. Whoever can get the return game going will have a big advantage.

The Line: Boise State +3

The Call: Boise State by 7

The Result: TCU 17-16

Great overall game from these two. The TCU D was as good as expected, but the Boise State D fell a bit flat. Not really any suprises on special teams like I was expecting - oh well. Let's hope some of the other big games match up to this one in terms of excitement.

Southern Miss - Troy

the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Sunday, December 21st, 8:15pm New Orleans, Louisiana

Southern Miss (6-6)______CUSA______-33.64 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 LA-Lafayette -61.26 W, 51-21 2 Auburn -77.38 L, 13-27 3 Arkansas State -51.75 W, 27-24 4 Marshall -148.36 L, 27-34 6 UTEP -94.41 L, 37-40 7 Boise State 376.20 L, 7-24 8 Rice 160.13 L, 40-45 9 Memphis -78.38 L, 30-36 10 UAB -166.76 W, 70-14 11 Central Florida -175.59 W, 17-6 12 East Carolina 198.86 W, 21-3 14 SMU -377.91 W, 28-12

Troy (8-4)______SunBelt_____76.73 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Middle TN State -134.69 W, 31-17 3 Alcorn State -488.15 W, 65-0 4 Ohio State 310.08 L, 10-28 5 Oklahoma State 216.63 L, 24-55 6 Florida Atlantic -32.89 W, 30-17 8 FL International -116.85 W, 33-23 9 North Texas -396.09 W, 45-17 10 LA-Monroe -216.40 L, 30-31 11 Western Kentucky -369.32 W, 17-7 12 LSU 60.71 L, 31-40 13 LA-Lafayette -61.26 W, 48-3 15 Arkansas State -51.75 W, 35-9

Some pretty weak opponents for these two, mainly because they play in weak conferences. The only good win of the bunch was Southern Miss' win over East Carolina, but they had more than a few bad losses to Troy's one.

Stats Matchup
Team	Southern Miss	Troy
Points (rank)	-33.64 (#68)	76.73 (#50)
Record	6-6	8-4
Opp. Points (rank)	-496.62 (#85)	-1,279.97 (#115)
Opp. Record	71-74	61-73
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	30.7 (110%)	33.3 (112%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	23.8 (89%)	20.6 (75%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	196.3 (127%)	175.5 (104%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	145.3 (86%)	139.2 (83%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	238.2 (107%)	245.9 (110%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	223.9 (105%)	180.4 (87%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	434.5 (113%)	421.4 (108%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	369.3 (99%)	319.6 (86%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	109.3 (90%)	118.8 (88%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	112.1 (89%)	109.3 (84%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	7.7 / 74.8	7.1 / 60.3
TO's / TO Margin	1.3 / +13	1.8 / +6

Nothing really jumps out looking at the stats. They're both slightly above average, barely, in most categories. Lotsa penalties between them, so this could be a sloppy game...

The Line: Southern Miss +4.5

The Call: Troy by 7

The Result: Southern Miss 30-27 (OT)

A much more entertaining game than I thought it would be - kudos to both teams. Solid play, good comeback by the Golden Eagles... well done. Bad call on my part though, but hey, what're you gonna do?

Colorado St - Fresno St

the New Mexico Bowl Saturday, December 20th, 2:30pm Albuquerque, New Mexico

Colorado State (6-6)______MtnWest______-1.56 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Colorado -63.26 L, 17-38 2 Sacramento State -430.29 W, 23-20 4 Houston 68.00 W, 28-25 5 California 160.52 L, 7-42 6 UNLV -108.41 W, 41-28 7 TCU 272.51 L, 7-13 8 Utah 423.50 L, 16-49 9 San Diego State -330.21 W, 38-34 10 Brigham Young 220.45 L, 42-45 11 Air Force 116.54 L, 17-38 12 New Mexico -142.13 W, 20-6 13 Wyoming -173.43 W, 31-20

Fresno State (7-5)______WAC_____63.06 Wk Opp oPts Score 1 Rutgers 118.18 W, 24-7 3 Wisconsin 43.18 L, 10-13 4 Toledo -230.71 W, 55-54 5 UCLA -139.33 W, 36-31 6 Hawaii 12.83 L, 29-32 7 Idaho -316.44 W, 45-32 9 Utah State -184.14 W, 30-28 10 Louisiana Tech 13.10 L, 35-38 11 Nevada 34.12 L, 28-41 12 New Mexico State -269.98 W, 24-17 13 San Jose State -37.52 W, 24-10 14 Boise State 376.20 L, 10-61

Colorado State and Fresno State were both pretty even par this year. They each beat a team in the blue, but not a good one, losing to the rest of the blues and beating the reds. The Rams get a bit of an edge because they played in the decent MtnWest instead of the terrible WAC like the Bulldogs. Nothing too exciting about either of their schedules.

New Mexico Bowl Matchup
Team	Colorado State	Fresno State
Points (rank)	-1.56 (#63)	63.06 (#52)
Record	6-6	7-5
Opp. Points (rank)	13.78 (#56)	-580.51 (#87)
Opp. Record	75-58	68-77
Points (% of Opp. Avg)	23.9 (93%)	29.2 (107%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg)	29.8 (123%)	30.3 (126%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	129.8 (84%)	176.8 (122%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	185.3 (136%)	197.3 (141%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	247.5 (121%)	206.5 (98%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	222.8 (120%)	196.2 (91%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	377.3 (105%)	383.3 (107%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	408.1 (113%)	393.5 (111%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	99.8 (92%)	145.3 (114%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg)	129.7 (106%)	171.0 (145%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds	4.5 / 40.6	5.1 / 43.2
TO's / TO Margin	1.6 / +2	1.9 / -11

Neither of these two have done very well on the D this year. They usually allow more than their opponent's average in all areas, while their offenses don't quite keep pace. Both teams should have an easier time running the ball than they're used to, but the Bulldogs have already put up good rushing yards against good rush D's this year. Fresno State usually turns the ball over twice per game, and while Colorado State is a shade better in turnovers per game, they take the ball away a lot more than Pat Hill's boys. I can see this one coming down to the end.

The Line: Colorado State +2.5

The Call: Colorado State by 3

The Result: Colorado State 40-35

Yup - over 600 yards rushing between these two. Exciting game, nice back-and-forth.