Arkansas - East Carolina

Liberty Bowl January 2, 5:30pm Memphis, TN

Arkansas (7-5) _____________ SEC ___________ 121.91 ____ ___________YPG = 425.2 (125%) → +31% ____________PPG = 36.4 (155%) → +58% dYPG = 419.9 (111%) dPPG = 27.2 (106%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Missouri St -508.33 W, 48-10 3 Georgia 159.43 L, 41-52 4 Alabama 589.24 L, 7-35 5 Texas A&M -11.32 W, 47-19 6 Auburn 121.93 W, 44-23 7 Florida 470.00 L, 20-23 8 Mississippi 152.02 L, 17-30 9 Eastern Michigan -520.92 W, 63-27 10 South Carolina 113.85 W, 33-16 11 Troy 179.89 W, 56-20 12 Mississippi St 14.07 W, 42-21 13 LSU 248.45 L, 30-33 0 X1234 XXX X,XX

East Carolina (9-4) ____________ CUSA ________ 177.10 ____ YPG = 372 (94%) PPG = 27.7 (97%) -6% ← dYPG = 397.2 (105%)_________ -22% ← dPPG = 21.9 (84%)_________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Appalachian St -506.07 W, 29-24 2 West Virginia 240.94 L, 20-35 3 North Carolina 195.12 L, 17-31 4 UCF 122.39 W, 19-14 5 Marshall -30.18 W, 21-17 6 SMU 22.67 L, 21-28 7 Rice -295.50 W, 49-13 9 Memphis -278.07 W, 38-19 10 Virginia Tech 292.07 L, 3-16 11 Tulsa -112.30 W, 44-17 12 UAB -71.06 W, 37-21 13 Southern Miss 18.75 W, 25-20 14 Houston 213.71 W, 38-32

Dessert? Really? Huh. That might be really telling of where the Pirates' minds are at right now. The Razorbacks are probably salivating at getting this one started.

The Line: East Carolina +7.5

The Call: Arkansas by 14

The Result: Arkansas 20-17

And now the Razorbacks are thankful that the Pirates left their kicker at the buffet table. You gotta feel bad for the guy, but three chances? You gotta hit at least one of those.

Northern Illinois - South Florida

International Bowl January 2, 12:00pm Toronto, Canada

N. Illinois (7-5) ______________ MAC _____________ 0.53 ____ YPG = 351.4 (91%) ____________PPG = 29.8 (105%) → +24% __________dYPG = 336.1 (89%) → -7% _________dPPG = 22.5 (90%) → -4% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Wisconsin 189.12 L, 20-28 2 Western Illinois -511.06 W, 41-7 3 Purdue -27.94 W, 28-21 4 Idaho 19.61 L, 31-34 5 Western Michigan -188.83 W, 38-3 7 Toledo -151.64 L, 19-20 8 Miami (OH) -332.47 W, 27-22 9 Akron -247.05 W, 27-10 10 Eastern Michigan -520.92 W, 50-6 11 Ball St -385.62 W, 26-20 12 Ohio 116.67 L, 31-38 13 Central Michigan 257.98 L, 31-45

South Florida (7-5) _____________ BigEast _________ 79.25 ____ YPG = 344.1 (91%) PPG = 21.8 (81%) dYPG = 354.6 (96%) dPPG = 24.7 (94%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Wofford -532.82 W, 40-7 2 Western Kentucky -540.84 W, 35-13 3 Charleston Southern -526.79 W, 59-0 4 Florida St 71.14 W, 17-7 5 Syracuse -108.38 W, 34-20 7 Cincinnati 473.38 L, 17-34 8 Pittsburgh 224.38 L, 14-41 9 West Virginia 240.94 W, 30-19 11 Rutgers 102.84 L, 0-31 12 Louisville -108.86 W, 34-22 13 Miami (FL) 274.34 L, 10-31 14 Connecticut 100.28 L, 27-29

The Huskies actually have the edge in the stats department, having a better offense and defense than the Bulls. But South Florida played a tougher schedule and didn't lose to any teams it shouldn't have, even managing to knock off a good West Virginia squad. Northern Illinois' best win was over Purdue, then a bunch of average MAC teams. Scoring might be a bit tricky for the Bulls, but if their D can prop them up, they should be okay.

The Line: Northern Illinois +7

The Call: South Florida by 9

The Result: South Florida 27-3

Consider the propping up successful. Nice W for the Bulls.

Missouri - Navy

Texas Bowl December 31, 3:30pm Houston, TX

Missouri (8-4) ____________ Big12 __________ 116.64 ____ ____________YPG = 407.4 (110%) → +18% ____________PPG = 28.4 (114%) → +7% dYPG = 354.4 (95%) dPPG = 25.7 (107%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Illinois -190.53 W, 37-9 2 Bowling Green 66.61 W, 27-20 3 Furman -533.47 W, 52-12 4 Nevada 98.86 W, 31-21 6 Nebraska 177.80 L, 12-27 7 Oklahoma St 211.94 L, 17-33 8 Texas 487.27 L, 7-41 9 Colorado -216.73 W, 36-17 10 Baylor -105.91 L, 32-40 11 Kansas St -32.33 W, 38-12 12 Iowa St -19.16 W, 34-24 13 Kansas -89.35 W, 41-39 ___

Navy (9-4) ______________ Indy __________ 127.84 ____ YPG = 345.8 (92%) PPG = 26.8 (107%) -5% ← dYPG = 330.6 (90%)_________ -31% ← dPPG = 20.1 (76%)__________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Ohio St 335.31 L, 27-31 2 Louisiana Tech -137.56 W, 32-14 3 Pittsburgh 224.38 L, 14-27 4 Western Kentucky -540.84 W, 38-22 5 Air Force 44.52 W, 16-13 6 Rice -295.50 W, 63-14 7 SMU 22.67 W, 38-35 8 Wake Forest -53.61 W, 13-10 9 Temple 102.29 L, 24-27 10 Notre Dame 23.90 W, 23-21 11 Delaware -508.20 W, 35-18 13 Hawaii -68.79 L, 17-24 15 Army -162.43 W, 17-3

The Tigers & Midshipmen are pretty evenly balanced, statistics-wise. No advantages jump out, even though Navy's D seems much better at giving up fewer points than Mizzou's D. And being in the Big12 didn't really help steel the Tigers either, since the conference had a down year - the Midshipmen's slate was a tougher road overall. Both lost to the best teams they played, along with one bad team they shouldn't have. No spectacular wins for either one, but Navy might have an advantage in a close one - their four best wins were all by 3 or less points. Not sure why, but something tells me the Midshipmen have it in them...

The Line: Navy +6.5

The Call: Navy by 4

The Result: Navy 35-13

Solid W by the Midshipmen. The Big12 has been a bit down this year, and I'll be curious to see what happens the rest of the way for them.

Temple - UCLA

EagleBank Bowl December 29, 4:30pm Washington, DC

Temple (9-3) ___________ MAC _________ 102.29 ____ YPG = 327.0 (89%) ____________PPG = 30.8 (117%) → +38% dYPG = 333.7 (100%) dPPG = 21.2 (102%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Villanova -445.10 L, 24-27 3 Penn St 256.10 L, 6-31 4 Buffalo -99.82 W, 37-13 5 Eastern Michigan -520.92 W, 24-12 6 Ball St -385.62 W, 24-19 7 Army -162.43 W, 27-13 8 Toledo -151.64 W, 40-24 9 Navy 127.84 W, 27-24 10 Miami (OH) -332.47 W, 34-32 11 Akron -247.05 W, 56-17 12 Kent St -138.94 W, 47-13 13 Ohio 116.67 L, 17-35

UCLA (6-6) _____________ Pac10 ___________ 37.15 ____ +1% ← YPG = 339.3 (90%)__________ PPG = 21.3 (79%) -10% ← dYPG = 338.3 (90%)__________ -24% ← dPPG = 21.3 (78%)__________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 San Diego St -155.82 W, 33-14 2 Tennessee 115.05 W, 19-15 3 Kansas St -32.33 W, 23-9 5 Stanford 199.79 L, 16-24 6 Oregon 385.85 L, 10-24 7 California 176.17 L, 26-45 8 Arizona 236.36 L, 13-27 9 Oregon St 189.28 L, 19-26 10 Washington 19.13 W, 24-23 11 Washington St -302.11 W, 43-7 12 Arizona St -109.63 W, 23-13 13 USC 227.93 L, 7-28

The Owls have the better record by far, only dropping 3 to the Bruins' 6. But their SoS was atrocious - they only played three decent teams and lost to two of them (along with a stunning loss to I-AA Villanova). The Bruins played a pretty hefty schedule, but lost to all the best teams they played. The wins over Kansas State and Tennessee were big non-conf victories, which should give them an edge in facing unfamiliarity.

Both gain around 330 yards per game, but the Owls put up nearly 50% more points. They're gonna need to keep that up to have a shot against a underrated Bruin D.

The Line: Temple +4.5

The Call: UCLA by 6

The Result: UCLA 30-21

Yeah, the Owls put up some points in the first half, but that second half they just deflated. Props to the Bruins for sticking in there and not losing their composure in the cold - should be a good offseason for both of these teams.

California - Utah

Poinsettia Bowl December 23, 8:00pm San Diego, CA

California (8-4) ______________ Pac10 ___________ 176.17 ____ __________YPG = 389 (106%) → +3% PPG = 26.5 (104%) dYPG = 389.9 (112%) dPPG = 26.1 (105%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Maryland -282.65 W, 52-13 2 Eastern Washington -507.13 W, 59-7 3 Minnesota 7.50 W, 35-21 4 Oregon 385.85 L, 3-42 5 USC 227.93 L, 3-30 7 UCLA 37.15 W, 45-26 8 Washington St -302.11 W, 49-17 9 Arizona St -109.63 W, 23-21 10 Oregon St 189.28 L, 14-31 11 Arizona 236.36 W, 24-16 12 Stanford 199.79 W, 34-28 14 Washington 19.13 L, 10-42

Utah (9-3) ___________ MtnWest ________ 174.96 ____ YPG = 389.6 (103%) +14% ← PPG = 29.3 (118%)___________ -25% ← dYPG = 314.2 (87%)___________ -28% ← dPPG = 19.7 (77%)___________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Utah St -163.79 W, 35-17 2 San Jose St -289.14 W, 24-14 3 Oregon 385.85 L, 24-31 4 Louisville -108.86 W, 30-14 6 Colorado St -255.31 W, 24-17 7 UNLV -83.31 W, 35-15 8 Air Force 44.52 W, 23-16 9 Wyoming -36.24 W, 22-10 10 New Mexico -391.30 W, 45-14 11 TCU 419.26 L, 28-55 12 San Diego St -155.82 W, 38-7 13 Brigham Young 253.27 L, 23-26

Offensively, the Bears & Utes are pretty evenly matched, both straight up and percentage-wise. The Utes definitely have the edge on defense though - the Bears don't even hold their opponents below their averages. Cal has the slight edge in SoS, and also in big games won - wins over Arizona & Stanford were solid, while Utah's best win was over barely-blue Air Force (all of their other wins were over teams in the red). That's gonna be the clincher for me.

The Line: Utah +3

The Call: California by 9

The Result: Utah 37-27

It appears that the MtnWest is trying to make up for their lack of pizzaz in the regular season...

BYU - Oregon State

Las Vegas Bowl December 20, 8:00pm Las Vegas, NV

BYU (10-2) ________ MtnWest _______ 253.27 ____ ____________YPG = 436.7 (119%) → +6% ____________PPG = 34.8 (134%) → +3% __________dYPG = 330.7 (90%) → -4% ___________dPPG = 21.7 (85%) → -7% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Oklahoma 102.05 W, 14-13 2 Tulane -246.99 W, 54-3 3 Florida St 71.14 L, 28-54 4 Colorado St -255.31 W, 42-23 5 Utah St -163.79 W, 35-17 6 UNLV -83.31 W, 59-21 7 San Diego St -155.82 W, 38-28 8 TCU 419.26 L, 7-38 10 Wyoming -36.24 W, 52-0 11 New Mexico -391.30 W, 24-19 12 Air Force 44.52 W, 38-21 13 Utah 174.96 W, 26-23

Oregon State (8-4) ______________ Pac10 __________ 189.28 ____ YPG = 418.2 (113%) PPG = 32.3 (131%) dYPG = 353.1 (94%) dPPG = 24.9 (92%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Portland St -506.84 W, 34-7 2 UNLV -83.31 W, 23-21 3 Cincinnati 473.38 L, 18-28 4 Arizona 236.36 L, 32-37 5 Arizona St -109.63 W, 28-17 6 Stanford 199.79 W, 38-28 8 USC 227.93 L, 36-42 9 UCLA 37.15 W, 26-19 10 California 176.17 W, 31-14 11 Washington 19.13 W, 48-21 12 Washington St -302.11 W, 42-10 14 Oregon 385.85 L, 33-37

Both of these teams are quite solid - gaining more than their opponents usually allow on offense and allowing less than their opponents' average on defense. A single-digit advantage in all areas for the Cougars doesn't amount to much - it's basically even. The Beavers have played the tougher schedule losing to all the top teams they played, while the Cougars lost only twice, but once to the Seminoles who were significantly worse than them.

Both teams can put points on the board, Oregon State only dipping below 20 just once, BYU under 24 just twice. The MtnWest needs a boost, since their regular non-conference games weren't all that impressive. They might get it against the Pac10... but only if they can contain the brothers Rogers. Should be a highly entertaining game.

The Line: BYU +2.5

The Call: BYU by 3

The Result: BYU 44-20

Certainly not as close as expected... Yeah, we can chalk that loss to Florida State up to fluke, and apart from the loss to TCU, the Cougars were stellar all season. The Beavers can't finish, and though they said they were ready, getting that close to the Rose Bowl has to hurt psychologically. But they should be as good next year and have another year of experience to build on.

Rutgers - UCF

St. Petersburg Bowl December 19, 8:00pm St. Petersburg, FL

Rutgers (8-4) ___________ BigEast _________ 102.84 ____ YPG = 297.7 (79%) ____________PPG = 24.3 (95%) → +12% dYPG = 336.4 (94%) dPPG = 20.2 (81%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Cincinnati 473.38 L, 15-47 2 Howard -508.75 W, 41-7 3 Florida Intl -235.04 W, 23-15 4 Maryland -282.65 W, 34-13 6 Texas Southern -543.74 W, 42-0 7 Pittsburgh 224.38 L, 17-24 8 Army -162.43 W, 27-10 9 Connecticut 100.28 W, 28-24 11 South Florida 79.25 W, 31-0 12 Syracuse -108.38 L, 13-31 13 Louisville -108.86 W, 34-14 14 West Virginia 240.94 L, 21-24

UCF (8-4) ______________ CUSA __________ 122.39 ____ +7% ← YPG = 353.9 (86%)__________ PPG = 26.2 (83%) -6% ← dYPG = 354.2 (88%)_________ -12% ← dPPG = 20.4 (69%)_________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Samford -507.42 W, 28-24 2 Southern Miss 18.75 L, 19-26 3 Buffalo -99.82 W, 23-17 4 East Carolina 177.10 L, 14-19 5 Memphis -278.07 W, 32-14 7 Miami (FL) 274.34 L, 7-27 8 Rice -295.50 W, 49-7 9 Marshall -30.18 W, 21-20 10 Texas 487.27 L, 3-35 11 Houston 213.71 W, 37-32 12 Tulane -246.99 W, 49-0 13 UAB -71.06 W, 34-27

Neither of these offenses are particularly inspiring - both are below average in points and yards. On defense they're pretty equal, both giving up around 340 yards and 20 points per game, but the Scarlet Knights did it against easier offenses in general. Overall though, the CUSA wasn't as tough as the BigEast this year, and UCF missed one of the more potent conference teams in SMU.

Both are pretty equal along the quality win front - UCF took down Houston, while Rutgers took down both UConn and South Florida. UCF may have a bit of a home-field advantage, playing in St. Petersburg, but maybe not. Tough call this one...

The Line: UCF +2.5

The Call: Rutgers by 4

The Result: Rutgers 45-24

As I've been saying about the BigEast... the Scarlet Knights are able to get it done, continuing their post-season success. An extremely quiet 9-4 this year - will they be able to make more waves in 2010? And the Golden Knights' bowl woes continue. Not only that, but they're only going to one every other year. Consistently good is wonderful, consistently bad is numbing, but inconsistency is just maddening.