Central Michigan - Troy

GMAC Bowl January 6, 7:00pm Mobile, AL

C. Michigan (11-2) ____________ MAC __________ 257.98 ____ YPG = 425.9 (114%) ___________PPG = 31.9 (114%) → +3% __________dYPG = 342.6 (96%) → -15% __________dPPG = 18.7 (75%) → -37% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Arizona 236.36 L, 6-19 2 Michigan St 11.18 W, 29-27 3 Alcorn St -532.68 W, 48-0 4 Akron -247.05 W, 48-21 5 Buffalo -99.82 W, 20-13 6 Eastern Michigan -520.92 W, 56-8 7 Western Michigan -188.83 W, 34-23 8 Bowling Green 66.61 W, 24-10 9 Boston College 137.57 L, 10-31 11 Toledo -151.64 W, 56-28 12 Ball St -385.62 W, 35-3 13 Northern Illinois 0.53 W, 45-31 14 Ohio 116.67 W, 20-10

Troy (9-3) ___________ SunBelt _______ 179.89 ____ +5% ← YPG = 478.5 (119%)__________ PPG = 33.1 (111%) dYPG = 417.9 (111%) dPPG = 28.6 (112%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Bowling Green 66.61 L, 14-31 2 Florida 470.00 L, 6-56 3 UAB -71.06 W, 27-14 4 Arkansas St -183.23 W, 30-27 6 Mid Tenn St 136.35 W, 31-7 7 Florida Intl -235.04 W, 42-33 8 North Texas -345.58 W, 50-26 9 LA-Monroe -50.43 W, 42-21 10 Western Kentucky -540.84 W, 40-20 11 Arkansas 121.91 L, 20-56 12 Florida Atl -101.06 W, 47-21 13 LA-Lafayette -71.89 W, 48-31 0 X1234 XXX X,XX

Well, both of these teams posted great records against not-so-great competition, to say the least. None of their losses were bad, but not a single impressive win either. How much of a home-field advantage will Troy have, playing in their own backyard? Well, the weather promises to be colder and uglier than they're used to, which might suite Central Michigan just fine. Both of them like to put up the yards & points, so a shootout might be in order here, especially since Troy's D is below average.

The Line: Troy +3

The Call: Central Michigan by 7

The Result: Central Michigan 44-41

Nice penultimate game for the season. Lotsa offense, as expected, excitement, OT - solid performance from both sides.

Air Force - Houston

Armed Forces Bowl December 31, 12:00pm Fort Worth, TX

Air Force (7-5) ___________ MtnWest _________ 44.52 ____ YPG = 335.9 (94%) PPG = 24.3 (97%) __________dYPG = 296.9 (84%) → -41% _________dPPG = 16.7 (65%) → -55% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Nicholls St -554.57 W, 72-0 2 Minnesota 7.50 L, 13-20 3 New Mexico -391.30 W, 37-13 4 San Diego St -155.82 W, 26-14 5 Navy 127.84 L, 13-16 6 TCU 419.26 L, 17-20 7 Wyoming -36.24 W, 10-0 8 Utah 174.96 L, 16-23 9 Colorado St -255.31 W, 34-16 10 Army -162.43 W, 35-7 11 UNLV -83.31 W, 45-17 12 Brigham Young 253.27 L, 21-38 0 X1234 XXX X,XX

Houston (10-3) ______________ CUSA __________ 213.71 ____ +58% ← YPG = 584.7 (152%)__________ +58% ← PPG = 43 (155%)__________ dYPG = 457.7 (125%) dPPG = 30.6 (120%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Northwestern St -547.33 W, 55-7 2 Oklahoma St 211.94 W, 45-35 4 Texas Tech 131.04 W, 29-28 5 UTEP -225.83 L, 41-58 6 Mississippi St 14.07 W, 31-24 7 Tulane -246.99 W, 44-16 8 SMU 22.67 W, 38-15 9 Southern Miss 18.75 W, 50-43 10 Tulsa -112.30 W, 46-45 11 UCF 122.39 L, 32-37 12 Memphis -278.07 W, 55-14 13 Rice -295.50 W, 73-14 14 East Carolina 177.10 L, 32-38

As far as disparity between offense ability and defensive ability goes, these two are at the extremes. Not only is Houston's offense at the top of most stat categories this year, their defense is pretty close to the bottom - the opposite is true of Air Force. When the Falcon's are on defense, it's going to be the two immovable objects scenario, and when the Cougars are on defense, it's going to be the two objects that couldn't move if they had a tank & a GPS scenario. We could see a blowout, or a really close one - there's no telling.

The Cougars have the better record and have played slightly tougher competition, but they've also lost games whey shouldn't have. Air Force hasn't taken a bad loss this season, but they haven't beaten anyone with a pulse either. The edge goes to the Cougars who are able to put up the points even when they lose.

The Line: Air Force +4.5

The Call: Houston by 10

The Result: Air Force 47-20

Yep, went the wrong way on that one. Another big W for the MtnWest, and another disappointing loss for Houston. Still, the Cougars made strides this year and should be set up nicely for next year. The Falcons are waiting for their turn atop the MtnWest, and might get it next year.

Bowling Green - Idaho

Humanitarian Bowl December 30, 4:30pm Boise, ID

Bowling Green (7-5) ____________ MAC __________ 66.61 ____ YPG = 392.2 (106%) PPG = 27.3 (103%) _________dYPG = 394 (107%) → -9% _________dPPG = 26.2 (107%) → -29% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Troy 179.89 W, 31-14 2 Missouri 116.64 L, 20-27 3 Marshall -30.18 L, 10-17 4 Boise St 441.42 L, 14-49 5 Ohio 116.67 L, 37-44 6 Kent St -138.94 W, 36-35 7 Ball St -385.62 W, 31-17 8 Central Michigan 257.98 L, 10-24 10 Buffalo -99.82 W, 30-29 11 Miami (OH) -332.47 W, 35-14 12 Akron -247.05 W, 36-20 13 Toledo -151.64 W, 38-24

Idaho (7-5) ______________ WAC __________ 19.61 ____ +11% ← YPG = 450.9 (117%)__________ +12% ← PPG = 31.8 (115%)__________ dYPG = 424.8 (116%) dPPG = 35.5 (136%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 New Mexico St -332.96 W, 21-6 2 Washington 19.13 L, 23-42 3 San Diego St -155.82 W, 34-20 4 Northern Illinois 0.53 W, 34-31 5 Colorado St -255.31 W, 31-29 6 San Jose St -289.14 W, 29-25 7 Hawaii -68.79 W, 35-23 8 Nevada 98.86 L, 45-70 9 Louisiana Tech -137.56 W, 35-34 10 Fresno St 116.89 L, 21-31 11 Boise St 441.42 L, 25-63 13 Utah St -163.79 L, 49-52

Bowling Green has the edge on defense, Idaho has the edge on offense; Bowling Green the city can be just as cold, bleak, and dreary as Boise, so the conditions probably won't hurt the Falcons too much; the Vandals should have more support from the crowd, but their riding a three-game losing streak, with two of those losses at home.

The Line: Idaho +1

The Call: Bowling Green by 9

The Result: Idaho 43-42

Yikes, welcome to the Freddie Barnes show. What a way to end a career. A win would've been nice though - props to Akey for having the stones to forego the extra point and try for the win. Those are the kinds of decisions and successes that they talk about when they say a bowl win can last a whole offseason.

Marshall - Ohio

Little Ceasars Bowl December 26, 1:00pm Detroit, MI

Marshall (6-6) ___________ CUSA _________ -30.18 ____ YPG = 352.3 (87%) PPG = 21.0 (74%) dYPG = 399.9 (107%) dPPG = 24.6 (92%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Southern Illinois -513.93 W, 31-28 2 Virginia Tech 292.07 L, 10-52 3 Bowling Green 66.61 W, 17-10 4 Memphis -278.07 W, 27-16 5 East Carolina 177.10 L, 17-21 6 Tulane -246.99 W, 31-10 7 West Virginia 240.94 L, 7-24 8 UAB -71.06 W, 27-7 9 UCF 122.39 L, 20-21 11 Southern Miss 18.75 L, 20-27 12 SMU 22.67 W, 34-31 13 UTEP -225.83 L, 21-52 0 X1234 XXX X,XX

Ohio (9-4) ______________ MAC __________ 116.67 ____ YPG = 317.3 (87%) +26% ← PPG = 25.2 (100%)___________ -6% ← dYPG = 363.7 (101%)_________ -6% ← dPPG = 22.3 (86%)_________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Connecticut 100.28 L, 16-23 2 North Texas -345.58 W, 31-30 3 Cal Poly -569.30 W, 28-10 4 Tennessee 115.05 L, 23-34 5 Bowling Green 66.61 W, 44-37 6 Akron -247.05 W, 19-7 7 Miami (OH) -332.47 W, 28-7 8 Kent St -138.94 L, 11-20 9 Ball St -385.62 W, 20-17 11 Buffalo -99.82 W, 27-24 12 Northern Illinois 0.53 W, 38-31 13 Temple 102.29 W, 35-17 14 Central Michigan 257.98 L, 10-20

Of coiurse Ohio has the edge in regular season performance, but as we've seen these last few games, that doesn't mean much when it comes to the bowls. Both of these teams are underwhelming on both offense and defense, and while the Thundering Herd might have played a tougher schedule in the CUSA, the Bobcats had more wins over good teams.

Tricky call this one - we need to get back on track.

The Line: Marshall +3

The Call: Ohio by 4

The Result: Marshall 21-17

As mentioned, the Bobcats weren't great on offense, but they were averaging over 300 yards per game - 123 yards aren't going to cut it no matter who you're playing. Props to the Herd for a good bowl win.

Nevada - SMU

Hawaii Bowl December 24, 8:00pm Honolulu, HI

Nevada (8-4) ____________ WAC __________ 98.86 ____ ___________YPG = 521.3 (130%) → +37% ____________PPG = 40.6 (140%) → +37% _________dYPG = 398.8 (104%) → -3% __________dPPG = 27.2 (110%) → -23% ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Notre Dame 23.90 L, 0-35 3 Colorado St -255.31 L, 20-35 4 Missouri 116.64 L, 21-31 5 UNLV -83.31 W, 63-28 6 Louisiana Tech -137.56 W, 37-14 7 Utah St -163.79 W, 35-32 8 Idaho 19.61 W, 70-45 9 Hawaii -68.79 W, 31-21 10 San Jose St -289.14 W, 62-7 11 Fresno St 116.89 W, 52-14 12 New Mexico St -332.96 W, 63-20 13 Boise St 441.42 L, 33-44

SMU (7-5) ______________ CUSA __________ 22.67 ____ YPG = 382.2 (93%) PPG = 27.6 (103%) dYPG = 398.9 (107%) dPPG = 29.6 (133%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Stephen F. Austin -509.90 W, 31-23 2 UAB -71.06 W, 35-33 3 Washington St -302.11 L, 27-30 5 TCU 419.26 L, 14-39 6 East Carolina 177.10 W, 28-21 7 Navy 127.84 L, 35-38 8 Houston 213.71 L, 15-38 9 Tulsa -112.30 W, 27-13 10 Rice -295.50 W, 31-28 11 UTEP -225.83 W, 35-31 12 Marshall -30.18 L, 31-34 13 Tulane -246.99 W, 26-21

Neither of these two have really had stellar seasons, but they haven't been awful either. Nevada's running attack is one of the best, and you'd expect them to have won more with it, but their D is worse than average. Thankfully for them, SMU's D is even worse. Neither played a particularly rough schedule this year. Of course the Jones-back-to-Hawaii storyline might play in a bit, but you can expect the Wolfpack to try to pound it.

The Line: SMU +11.5

The Call: Nevada by 13

The Result: SMU 45-10

The key word there being "try". Rendering the Wolfpack running game ineffective allowed the Mustangs to run the show, and they did. Great return for Jones, and the SMU faithful can have some hope for their program now.

Fresno State - Wyoming

New Mexico Bowl December 19, 4:30pm Albuquerque, NM

Fresno State (8-4) ______________ WAC ____________ 116.89 ____ ____________YPG = 429.1 (113%) → +35% ____________PPG = 32.8 (120%) → +64% dYPG = 428.3 (111%) dPPG = 30.4 (112%) ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 UC Davis -526.55 W, 51-0 2 Wisconsin 189.12 L, 31-34 3 Boise St 441.42 L, 34-51 4 Cincinnati 473.38 L, 20-28 6 Hawaii -68.79 W, 42-17 7 San Jose St -289.14 W, 41-21 8 New Mexico St -332.96 W, 34-3 9 Utah St -163.79 W, 31-27 10 Idaho 19.61 W, 31-21 11 Nevada 98.86 L, 14-52 12 Louisiana Tech -137.56 W, 30-28 14 Illinois -190.53 W, 53-52

Wyoming (6-6) ___________ MtnWest _______ -36.24 ____ YPG = 286.4 (78%) PPG = 15.8 (56%) -7% ← dYPG = 392.7 (104%)_________ -13% ← dPPG = 27.7 (99%)__________ ____ Wk Opponent oPts Score 1 Weber St -571.00 W, 29-22 2 Texas 487.27 L, 10-41 3 Colorado -216.73 L, 0-24 4 UNLV -83.31 W, 30-27 5 Florida Atl -101.06 W, 30-28 6 New Mexico -391.30 W, 37-13 7 Air Force 44.52 L, 0-10 9 Utah 174.96 L, 10-22 10 Brigham Young 253.27 L, 0-52 11 San Diego St -155.82 W, 30-27 12 TCU 419.26 L, 10-45 13 Colorado St -255.31 W, 17-16

Upon first glance, the Bulldogs have the upper hand here, if only because they're not in the red like the Cowboys are. Their offense is solid, having gone over 30 points in 10 of 12 games this year, as opposed to the Cowboy offense being significantly worse than average - they're only scoring 56% of the points their opponents normally allow. Terrible. The Bulldogs don't have as good of a D, not only percentage-wise but straight yards and points too, but it's nowhere near the offensive difference.

Neither team has a really good win on their resume, losing to all of the teams better than them. But Wyoming's loss to Colorado stands out as pretty bad. Other than that, they didn't put more than 10 points on the board against their other opponents in the blue.

Unless the Cowboys can pull something out of their sleeve, expect the Bulldogs to run away with it.

The Line: Wyoming +10.5

The Call: Fresno State by 17

The Result: Wyoming 35-28 OT

That's some magic there. Damn good way to start the bowl season.