Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Weeks 1 & 2, November 2005

So, the top 32 teams (Group A) get a bye the first week so they can prepare for their games. All of the other teams (Group B) are in action, matched up by the Official Committee against another team that's within a few spots of their own ranking. This results in the following slate of games for Week 1, with the winners in bold and underlined. (I've only included a few games for brevity - rest assured that all 85+ teams in Group B would have a matchup similar to these.)

RankTeamRecordvs.RankTeamRecord
#35Clemson (h)(5-4)vs#33Colorado(6-3)
#36Florida State (h)(5-4)vs#34Fresno State(6-3)
#37Iowa (h)(5-4)vs#41Arizona State(5-4)
#40Nebraska (h)(5-4)vs#38Northwestern(6-3)
#39Iowa State(5-4)vs#43Bowling Green(6-3)
#42South Florida(5-4)vs#44Miami (OH)(6-3)
#46North Carolina(5-4)vs#48Stanford(5-4)
#47Missouri(5-4)vs#45Tulsa(6-3)
#57Tennessee (H)(4-5)vs#52Virginia(4-5)

I'd like to reiterate here too that the pairings and choosing of winners/losers does not represent who I'd like to see play, who I think would win or lose a matchup, or anything like that. These pairings and results were almost all random except for those I made in order to illustrate a point about my Modified Season system.

The second weekend is when Group A plays. There's only 16 games this weekend, but they're pretty good ones. (Group A games will be shaded darker than Group B games for identification purposes.)

RankTeamRecordvs.RankTeamRecord
#1Texas (h)(9-0)vs#32Minnesota(5-4)
#2USC (H)(9-0)vs#31Michigan (H)(5-4)
#3Penn State (H)(8-1)vs#30California(5-4)
#4Ohio State (H)(8-1)vs#29GA Tech(5-4)
#5Oregon(8-1)vs#28UCF(7-2)
#6Auburn (H)(8-1)vs#27Louisiana Tech(7-2)
#7LSU (H)(8-1)vs#26Nevada(7-2)
#8Virginia Tech (h)(7-2)vs#25South Carolina (h)(6-3)
#9West Virginia(8-1)vs#24Northern Illinois(7-2)
#10Georgia (H)(7-2)vs#23Toledo(7-2)
#11Miami (FL)(7-2)vs#22Oklahoma (H)(6-3)
#12Notre Dame (h)(7-2)vs#21Wisconsin (h)(6-3)
#13TCU(9-0)vs#20Florida (H)(6-3)
#14Alabama (h)(7-2)vs#19Boston College(6-3)
#15Texas Tech(7-2)vs#18Boise State(8-1)
#16Louisville(7-2)vs#17UCLA (h)(7-2)

So now we get to the meat of the Modified Season. In order to show the intricacies of how it works, we'll be following a few teams through their Novembers, dealing with hypothetical situations which show the strength of the system.

The first team is USC. Yes, the #2 Trojans lost in the first round to #31 Michigan. It was a close one, decided by a field goal at the end of the game. Call it payback from the 2004 Rose Bowl. At any rate, in a single-elimination tournament, the Trojans would be done, season finished. Hardly fair since they breezed through the first 9 games undefeated. But that's not the case here - let's see if they can climb back into the race...

Another team we'll be looking at it is Oklahoma. The #22 Sooners came into November at 6-3, having lost to UCLA, Texas, and Texas Tech, all top-32 teams, in Part I of the season. They pull the upset over #11 Miami (FL) so their stock will rise. How high can they go?

As you might have noticed, there's quite a few "H" teams who had to go on the road in Week 2 - shouldn't they be playing at home? No, because they're in Group A. Home-field advantage privileges are only when teams are playing in Group B. But think about it - would Michigan or Oklahoma rather be away in Group A with a chance to make it to the national championship game or play at home in Group B with no chance? It's a win-win situation either way.

The Official Rankings after Week 2 might look something like this...

RankTeamW-LRank Δ
#1Texas (h)(10-0)-
#2Ohio State (H)(9-1)+2
#3Oregon(9-1)+2
#4Auburn (H)(9-1)+2
#5Virginia Tech (h)(8-2)+3
#6LSU (H)(9-1)+1
#7West Virginia(9-1)+2
#8Georgia (H)(8-2)+2
#9USC (H)(9-1)-7
#10Penn State (H)(8-2)-7
#11Notre Dame (h)(8-2)+1
#12Alabama (h)(8-2)+2
#13Texas Tech(8-2)+2
#14UCLA (h)(8-2)+3
#15Miami (FL)(7-3)-4
#16Florida (H)(7-3)+4
#17TCU(9-1)-4
#18Louisville(7-3)-2
#19Oklahoma (H)(7-3)+3
#20Boise State(8-2)-2
#21Wisconsin (h)(6-4)-
#22Michigan (H)(6-4)+9
#23California(6-4)+7
#25Toledo(7-3)-2
#26Northern Illinois(7-3)-2
#27South Carolina (h)(6-4)-2
#28Nevada(7-3)-2
#29Louisiana Tech(7-3)-2
#30UCF(7-3)-2
#31Florida State (h)(6-4)+5
#32Clemson (h)(6-4)+3
#33GA Tech(5-5)-4
#34Minnesota(5-5)-2
#35Colorado(6-4)-2
#36Nebraska (h)(6-4)+4
#37Fresno State(6-4)-3
#38Iowa State(6-4)+1
#39Arizona State(6-4)+2
#40Northwestern(6-4)-2

the setup: tMS 2005 < Top > Week 3

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