Monday, September 3, 2007

Weekly Rankings: Week 1, Sept 1

This is why computer rankings aren't published until October.

No, UConn is not the best team in the nation, for two specific reasons. First, as I'm sure you know, computer rankings get more and more accurate the more games that are played. So this ranking will look more like the polls as the season goes on. Second, and most importantly, my rankings measure only past achievement. So these rankings aren't designed to say "UConn is the best team", they say "UConn has achieved the most thus far in the 2007 season". Make sense?

More explanation? Okay, here's why UConn is at the top of the rankings. They played on the road, won big, and are in the (statistically) best conference. I know, I know - they beat Duke. If it makes you feel any better, the points they earn from this game will significantly decrease as the season goes along and the Blue Devils keep losing.

(*A quick note about the headings. Most of them are the usual wins, losses, points earned. The last four columns are the team's opponent's points, wins, etc, hence the "o" in front of the initials. Those are their opponents for the whole season, not just the weeks that have been played. So right now, the strongest schedule belongs to #82 Syracuse whose opponents for the year are 10-2 and have earned 228.96 points after the first week.)

Week 1 Rankings
RankConfTeamPointsWLW%oPtsoWoLoW%
1BigEastConnecticut49.4010100%-69.57463.64%
2SECLouisiana State48.1310100%164.919281.82%
3Big10Purdue44.4710100%-153.36554.55%
4Pac10Washington44.2710100%64.669469.24%
5Pac10UCLA44.2610100%-33.87558.34%
6BigEastRutgers43.3810100%43.388372.73%
7BigEastPittsburgh43.3510100%41.858372.73%
7BigEastWest Virginia43.3510100%-62.017558.34%
9SECArkansas42.0610100%-132.186554.55%
9SECFlorida42.0610100%50.918466.67%
9SECGeorgia42.0610100%11.228466.67%
12Big12Texas Tech41.9010100%-163.256554.55%
13SECMississippi40.1810100%127.339281.82%
14SECAuburn39.3610100%119.349281.82%
14SECSouth Carolina39.3610100%11.178466.67%
16ACCGeorgia Tech39.1110100%-55.67463.64%
17Big10Michigan State38.4310100%109.549375%
17Big10Penn State38.4310100%-135.726650%
17Big10Wisconsin38.4310100%-119.746554.55%
20Pac10Oregon State38.2410100%-25.277463.64%
21Pac10Arizona State38.2110100%25.27463.64%
21Pac10Oregon38.2110100%-37.97558.34%
21Pac10Southern California38.2110100%-26.337558.34%
24IndyNavy37.7610100%-374.033827.28%
25MtnWestNevada-Las Vegas36.4410100%-51.726554.55%
26Big12Kansas35.8910100%-343.24833.34%
26Big12Nebraska35.8910100%-127.596650%
26Big12Oklahoma35.8910100%-39.557558.34%
29Big10Iowa35.7310100%-112.286650%
30MtnWestTexas Christian35.6610100%-153.155645.46%
30MtnWestWyoming35.6610100%-59.56554.55%
32Pac10California35.5210100%-8.367558.34%
33BigEastSouth Florida34.8210100%181.1710283.34%
34BigEastCincinnati34.7910100%70.258372.73%
34BigEastLouisville34.7910100%-64.87558.34%
36SECAlabama33.4910100%-146.716650%
36SECKentucky33.4910100%107.929375%
36SECVanderbilt33.4910100%14.858466.67%
39ACCMiami (Florida)33.0710100%-120.66650%
40MtnWestBrigham Young32.9610100%-26.46460%
41CUSATulsa31.1710100%-258.874736.37%
42Big12Missouri30.5310100%-26.787463.64%
42Big12Texas30.5310100%-117.856650%
44ACCBoston College30.3710100%-102.626554.55%
44ACCVirginia Tech30.3710100%-32.937463.64%
46Big10Indiana29.8610100%-35.837558.34%
46Big10Northwestern29.8610100%-239.795741.67%
46Big10Ohio State29.8610100%45.018466.67%
49MACKent28.7610100%-147.016554.55%
50Big12Colorado27.8410100%-4.287558.34%
51ACCClemson27.6910100%-202.275645.46%
52Big12Texas A&M27.3210100%178466.67%
53MtnWestAir Force27.0910100%-145.725645.46%
54ACCMaryland24.5010100%-131.786650%
54ACCNorth Carolina24.5010100%-148.456650%
56MACMiami (Ohio)23.5110100%-52.337558.34%
57MACBowling Green State23.4910100%-128.066650%
58CUSACentral Florida23.2210100%-207.965741.67%
59WACBoise State21.8410100%-85.267558.34%
59WACFresno State21.8410100%-176.26650%
59WACHawaii21.8410100%-161.576554.55%
59WACLouisiana Tech21.8410100%-81.347558.34%
63WACNew Mexico State21.8310100%-221.246650%
64MACAkron20.0010100%-38.777558.34%
65CUSATexas-El Paso19.7310100%-158.085550%
66MACOhio16.7910100%-153.256650%
67CUSASouthern Mississippi16.5310100%-412.683925%
68SunBeltFlorida Atlantic13.2610100%-375.963925%
69MtnWestSan Diego State1.29000%-18.377463.64%
70CUSATulane-9.28000%-398.213925%
71MtnWestColorado State-37.41010%18.157370%
72Big10Illinois-40.47010%-54.217463.64%
73Big10Minnesota-40.73010%122.219281.82%
74SECTennessee-42.74010%116.399375%
75MtnWestNew Mexico-43.25010%-4.677463.64%
76IndyArmy-44.53010%28.57370%
77ACCNorth Carolina State-46.09010%-46.347463.64%
78Pac10Arizona-46.59010%72.998372.73%
79ACCFlorida State-47.13010%30.828466.67%
80Big12Kansas State-48.91010%-56.147463.64%
81Pac10Washington State-49.54010%120.998372.73%
82BigEastSyracuse-49.96010%228.9610283.34%
83SECMississippi State-50.62010%73.198372.73%
84MtnWestUtah-50.82010%129.358372.73%
85ACCWake Forest-51.73010%-37.927558.34%
86Big12Baylor-51.86010%-45.087463.64%
86Big12Oklahoma State-51.86010%55.958372.73%
88MACBall State-52.52010%-289.694833.34%
89WACUtah State-53.37010%20.668466.67%
90IndyWestern Kentucky-53.38010%-497.862625%
91Big12Iowa State-53.82010%136.059281.82%
92CUSAMemphis-54.07010%-3363730%
93ACCVirginia-54.68010%61.988466.67%
94Pac10Stanford-55.74010%67.628466.67%
95WACIdaho-57.35010%-147.796554.55%
95WACNevada-57.35010%49.119375%
95WACSan Jose State-57.35010%-153.996554.55%
98Big10Michigan-58.52010%8.168466.67%
99MACNorthern Illinois-59.44010%-282.24736.37%
100IndyNotre Dame-59.58010%137.839375%
101CUSAEast Carolina-59.71010%-70.576554.55%
102ACCDuke-60.88010%568466.67%
103MACBuffalo-61.11010%-45.047558.34%
104MACCentral Michigan-62.39010%-185.455645.46%
104MACEastern Michigan-62.39010%-229.795645.46%
104MACWestern Michigan-62.39010%-217.595645.46%
107CUSAAlabama-Birmingham-62.66010%-224.194640%
107CUSAHouston-62.66010%-240.94640%
107CUSAMarshall-62.66010%-122.486554.55%
110SunBeltArkansas State-62.94010%-442.2631023.08%
111MACTemple-64.99010%69.698466.67%
112MACToledo-68.59010%-279.634736.37%
113SunBeltLouisiana-Lafayette-68.84010%-293.374736.37%
113SunBeltMiddle Tennessee State-68.84010%-3673925%
115CUSASouthern Methodist-70.15010%-56.176554.55%
116SunBeltFlorida International-71.79010%-115.496650%
116SunBeltNorth Texas-71.79010%-331.044930.77%
116SunBeltTroy-71.79010%-282.44833.34%
119CUSARice-71.86010%-120.226554.55%
120SunBeltLouisiana-Monroe-76.71010%-204.015645.46%

As for the conferences...
(*"nc" stands for non-conference, so nc W = non-conference Wins, nc oPts = non-conference opponent's Points, etc. Since all conference games result in a win & a loss, points earned & points lost, I find that the best way to measure conference strength is by comparing non-conference games.

Week 1 Conference Rankings
RankConfAvg.Ptsnc Wnc Lnc W%nc oPtsnc oWnc oLnc oW%
1BigEast20.267187.5%-764.96162044.45%
2SEC18.839190%-1,146.05172639.54%
3Pac1010.586275%-559.79121544.45%
4Big109.168372.73%-1,371.41132732.5%
5Big123.438466.67%-1,043.46182442.86%
6MtnWest2.905362.5%-520.36171651.52%
7ACC0.035362.5%-447.41251858.14%
8WAC-8.955455.56%-313.38211263.64%
9MAC-19.484736.37%-87.61351767.31%
10CUSA-20.934736.37%-520.87241955.82%
11SunBelt-39.18060%11.30251365.79%

Conference standing is determined by average points, adding all the points a conference has earned in non-conference play & dividing that total by the number of teams in the conf. The Big East and SEC are far ahead of the pack with only 1 loss apiece (each coming to a Pac-10 team). But the big story here is some of the non-BCS conferences stepping up in Week 1. The Mountain West went 5-3, the WAC is over .500, and the MAC went 4-7, a definite improvement from their usual 0-11, or 1-10 fare.

Then there's the Sun Belt. Arkansas State almost pulled off the upset of Texas, but the rest of the conference basically got blown out in their games. It's gonna be a long year boys.

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