Sunday, October 18, 2009

Rankings: Week 7

A couple of flip-flops at the top. Iowa takes over the top spot from Alabama with a road win, and Cincinnati jumps to #3 over Florida because of the same. All the unbeatens are ahead of the one and two loss teams by a healthy margin. Georgia Tech & Pitt lead the one-loss teams over USC, but they've played one more game than the Trojans. Interestingly, we've got 4 non-BCS teams in the top 12 - Boise State at #5, TCU at #7, Idaho at #11, and Central Michigan at #12.

The worst of the bunch are Ball State, Miami (OH), Western Kentucky, and Rice, all winless. As far as SoS goes, Washington is way ahead of the pack, followed by Mississippi State, Colorado, and Oklahoma.

Week 7 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 Big10 Iowa 263.91 7 0 100.0% 284.11 46 29 61.3% 1
2 SEC Alabama 246.79 7 0 100.0% 51.39 38 32 54.3% -1
3 BigEast Cincinnati 209.50 6 0 100.0% -164.10 36 33 52.2% 1
4 SEC Florida 206.57 6 0 100.0% -190.64 35 37 48.6% -1
5 WAC Boise St 197.92 6 0 100.0% -590.50 34 44 43.6% 2
6 Big12 Texas 195.28 6 0 100.0% 303.60 43 31 58.1% 0
7 MtnWest TCU 183.33 6 0 100.0% -376.88 35 37 48.6% 1
8 ACC Georgia Tech 168.49 6 1 85.7% -102.63 38 35 52.1% 10
9 BigEast Pittsburgh 168.06 6 1 85.7% 218.23 43 27 61.4% 6
10 Pac10 USC 159.03 5 1 83.3% 410.06 42 33 56.0% 9
11 WAC Idaho 146.95 6 1 85.7% -286.00 33 42 44.0% 3
12 MAC Central Michigan 146.66 6 1 85.7% -781.01 30 45 40.0% 9
13 SEC LSU 146.22 5 1 83.3% 512.01 46 32 59.0% -3
14 ACC Virginia Tech 141.61 5 2 71.4% 623.78 50 29 63.3% -9
15 Pac10 Oregon 141.30 5 1 83.3% 608.16 45 30 60.0% -4
16 ACC Miami (FL) 140.54 5 1 83.3% 145.87 41 29 58.6% 8
17 Big10 Penn St 139.56 6 1 85.7% -21.23 41 33 55.4% 8
18 CUSA Houston 137.50 5 1 83.3% -554.95 33 40 45.2% 8
19 MtnWest Brigham Young 135.28 6 1 85.7% -289.31 34 42 44.7% 3
20 MtnWest Utah 122.14 5 1 83.3% -208.65 36 41 46.8% 7
21 BigEast West Virginia 117.61 5 1 83.3% 289.98 44 27 62.0% 8
22 Big12 Oklahoma St 115.89 5 1 83.3% 17.91 39 32 54.9% 9
23 Big10 Ohio St 110.61 5 2 71.4% 600.60 51 31 62.2% -14
24 Big12 Kansas 105.30 5 1 83.3% 83.67 41 30 57.7% -12
25 BigEast South Florida 101.63 5 1 83.3% -241.00 36 29 55.4% -12
26 Big12 Texas Tech 96.96 5 2 71.4% -37.66 38 31 55.1% 19
27 SEC South Carolina 94.78 5 2 71.4% 108.38 39 31 55.7% -7
28 SEC Auburn 93.22 5 2 71.4% 90.10 40 31 56.3% -12
29 Pac10 Arizona 92.67 4 2 66.7% 569.10 46 25 64.8% 10
30 Indy Navy 91.64 5 2 71.4% -461.85 38 40 48.7% 8
31 Big10 Wisconsin 90.81 5 2 71.4% 93.46 43 33 56.6% -14
32 Big10 Michigan 87.14 5 2 71.4% 16.14 41 34 54.7% 3
33 ACC Boston College 75.43 5 2 71.4% -88.84 39 34 53.4% 10
34 MAC Ohio 75.18 5 2 71.4% -1067.02 25 48 34.2% 6
35 Big12 Nebraska 72.17 4 2 66.7% 278.63 41 33 55.4% -12
36 BigEast Connecticut 68.42 4 2 66.7% 428.93 46 23 66.7% 11
37 Pac10 Oregon St 67.49 4 2 66.7% 286.42 41 29 58.6% -1
38 Pac10 California 66.23 4 2 66.7% 109.41 39 32 54.9% 13
39 Indy Notre Dame 65.45 4 2 66.7% 518.78 47 33 58.8% -11
40 SunBelt Troy 60.49 4 2 66.7% -435.98 29 42 40.8% 12
41 SEC Georgia 58.95 4 3 57.1% 543.19 47 24 66.2% 16
42 Pac10 Arizona St 57.70 4 2 66.7% 273.90 41 30 57.7% 18
43 SEC Mississippi 54.58 4 2 66.7% -249.42 37 31 54.4% 10
44 ACC North Carolina 53.76 4 2 66.7% -24.23 40 27 59.7% 0
45 CUSA Tulsa 52.10 4 2 66.7% -566.79 31 40 43.7% -15
46 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 49.76 4 2 66.7% -575.07 28 38 42.4% 16
47 SunBelt LA-Monroe 49.69 4 2 66.7% -573.42 28 38 42.4% 14
48 Big12 Missouri 48.55 4 2 66.7% 71.62 40 30 57.1% -16
49 Pac10 Stanford 37.86 4 3 57.1% 436.03 42 32 56.8% -16
50 BigEast Rutgers 36.62 4 2 66.7% -309.76 36 30 54.5% -16
51 Big10 Michigan St 36.08 4 3 57.1% 320.26 47 29 61.8% 16
52 Big10 Minnesota 35.05 4 3 57.1% 213.10 44 30 59.5% -15
53 CUSA East Carolina 25.99 4 3 57.1% -306.44 36 36 50.0% 13
54 CUSA Marshall 25.39 4 3 57.1% -334.23 35 37 48.6% -13
55 Big12 Kansas St 25.33 4 3 57.1% -174.50 37 27 57.8% 16
56 MtnWest Air Force 23.72 4 3 57.1% -170.77 40 35 53.3% 16
57 Pac10 Washington 23.40 3 4 42.9% 848.70 49 25 66.2% -8
58 Big12 Iowa St 19.79 4 3 57.1% 188.26 43 28 60.6% 16
59 SEC Kentucky 19.24 3 3 50.0% 82.14 41 33 55.4% 23
60 MAC Temple 19.03 4 2 66.7% -863.77 31 45 40.8% 9
61 ACC Wake Forest 15.41 4 3 57.1% 34.78 41 32 56.2% -19
62 Big10 Indiana 13.92 4 3 57.1% 45.54 42 33 56.0% 13
63 Big12 Oklahoma 13.85 3 3 50.0% 631.67 50 21 70.4% -17
64 SEC Arkansas 11.61 3 3 50.0% 456.93 46 26 63.9% -16
65 SEC Tennessee 7.95 3 3 50.0% 396.48 46 33 58.2% 3
66 ACC Clemson 6.87 3 3 50.0% 196.70 44 29 60.3% 13
67 MtnWest Wyoming 5.79 4 3 57.1% -154.89 37 34 52.1% -11
68 Pac10 UCLA 4.26 3 3 50.0% 478.18 43 32 57.3% -18
69 CUSA Southern Miss 3.08 4 3 57.1% -282.16 36 35 50.7% 8
70 WAC Fresno St 0.39 3 3 50.0% -184.60 37 34 52.1% 10
71 Big10 Northwestern 0.22 4 3 57.1% -370.69 35 40 46.7% -16
72 MAC Toledo -2.45 4 3 57.1% -699.74 29 50 36.7% 9
73 Big12 Baylor -3.31 3 3 50.0% 286.84 45 27 62.5% -15
74 MAC Northern Illinois -3.86 3 3 50.0% -730.94 32 44 42.1% -15
75 WAC Nevada -7.75 3 3 50.0% -78.74 38 38 50.0% 11
76 SunBelt Mid Tenn St -8.20 3 3 50.0% -741.20 26 47 35.6% -22
77 ACC Virginia -9.69 3 3 50.0% 439.60 48 25 65.8% 14
78 WAC Louisiana Tech -10.99 3 3 50.0% -24.85 40 32 55.6% 9
79 Big12 Texas A&M -13.34 3 3 50.0% 35.91 38 37 50.7% -14
80 CUSA SMU -13.84 3 3 50.0% -319.40 35 36 49.3% -17
81 CUSA UCF -13.84 3 3 50.0% -265.67 37 36 50.7% -17
82 MAC Bowling Green -18.50 3 4 42.9% -148.96 40 40 50.0% 11
83 MtnWest Colorado St -21.92 3 4 42.9% -93.68 40 33 54.8% -13
84 ACC Duke -27.40 3 3 50.0% -74.41 41 27 60.3% -6
85 SEC Mississippi St -30.42 3 4 42.9% 691.91 49 22 69.0% 12
86 MAC Western Michigan -36.42 3 4 42.9% -760.62 32 44 42.1% -13
87 ACC NC State -37.69 3 4 42.9% -199.56 39 30 56.5% -11
88 MAC Buffalo -41.59 3 4 42.9% -412.13 36 39 48.0% 10
89 ACC Florida St -43.60 2 4 33.3% 462.28 49 25 66.2% 3
90 Big12 Colorado -44.83 2 4 33.3% 668.00 51 26 66.2% 14
91 MAC Kent St -54.93 3 4 42.9% -715.30 31 43 41.9% 15
92 CUSA UTEP -57.10 2 4 33.3% -95.29 39 38 50.6% 4
93 BigEast Louisville -59.87 2 4 33.3% 416.03 45 23 66.2% -4
94 Indy Army -62.53 3 4 42.9% -864.48 29 42 40.8% -11
95 MtnWest San Diego St -64.33 2 4 33.3% -86.57 42 33 56.0% -10
96 CUSA UAB -69.40 2 4 33.3% -357.95 34 42 44.7% -8
97 WAC New Mexico St -69.46 3 4 42.9% -479.70 34 41 45.3% -13
98 BigEast Syracuse -72.87 2 4 33.3% 414.16 47 24 66.2% 1
99 CUSA Tulane -76.80 2 4 33.3% -151.09 39 33 54.2% -9
100 WAC Hawaii -78.10 2 4 33.3% -306.59 40 39 50.6% -6
101 Big10 Purdue -84.10 2 5 28.6% 449.82 48 32 60.0% 12
102 SunBelt Arkansas St -84.79 1 4 20.0% -420.10 31 36 46.3% -7
103 SunBelt Florida Atl -89.58 1 4 20.0% -312.84 33 40 45.2% 9
104 MtnWest UNLV -106.22 2 5 28.6% -106.43 39 32 54.9% -2
105 ACC Maryland -110.02 2 5 28.6% -60.10 39 32 54.9% -5
106 CUSA Memphis -110.07 2 5 28.6% -120.04 38 32 54.3% -5
107 SEC Vanderbilt -114.67 2 5 28.6% 155.50 42 31 57.5% -4
108 SunBelt Florida Intl -115.95 1 5 16.7% 97.72 39 33 54.2% -3
109 WAC San Jose St -120.46 1 5 16.7% 62.64 41 30 57.7% 0
110 Big10 Illinois -124.46 1 5 16.7% 317.24 47 28 62.7% 0
111 MAC Akron -128.61 1 5 16.7% -274.32 39 35 52.7% 0
112 WAC Utah St -130.86 1 5 16.7% -13.44 41 30 57.7% -4
113 SunBelt North Texas -134.83 1 5 16.7% -379.66 33 41 44.6% -6
114 Pac10 Washington St -136.45 1 5 16.7% 623.45 45 29 60.8% 0
115 MtnWest New Mexico -194.41 0 6 0.0% 344.05 47 32 59.5% 1
116 MAC Eastern Michigan -196.79 0 6 0.0% -292.30 39 41 48.8% -1
117 MAC Miami (OH) -207.41 0 7 0.0% 363.35 47 32 59.5% 0
118 CUSA Rice -229.71 0 7 0.0% 174.44 42 34 55.3% 1
119 SunBelt Western Kentucky -232.36 0 6 0.0% -324.32 33 34 49.3% -1
120 MAC Ball St -268.17 0 7 0.0% -338.00 38 36 51.4% 0

The BigEast stays atop the conference race, and the SEC takes the #2 spot back. The CUSA went 0-5 this weekend, dropping them down to #9 behind the WAC, and the MAC jumps up from the cellar.

Here's the breakdown at 2009 Non-Conference Games.

Looking at the conference SoS, it's pretty pathetic. The Pac10 is the only BCS conference who hasn't played a ridiculously easy slate, while the SunBelt has had the toughest overall road. The ACC's opponents winning percentage is at 61.2, but they've played 13 I-AA cupcakes to the Pac10's 4.

Week 7 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 63.84 BigEast 26 7 78.8% -2802.33 76 88 46.3%
2 51.35 SEC 27 5 84.4% -2321.01 73 99 42.4%
3 45.39 Big12 34 13 72.3% -2685.25 119 134 47.0%
4 40.60 Pac10 20 8 71.4% -108.89 92 68 57.5%
5 40.58 Big10 28 10 73.7% -2390.92 92 105 46.7%
6 22.10 ACC 25 13 65.8% -2041.43 108 70 60.7%
7 8.22 MtnWest 20 15 57.1% -1747.64 91 99 47.9%
8 -5.34 WAC 17 17 50.0% -1637.88 93 94 49.7%
9 -22.96 CUSA 18 25 41.9% -967.53 135 93 59.2%
10 -47.92 MAC 15 32 31.9% -1119.77 150 112 57.3%
11 -49.48 SunBelt 8 22 26.7% 335.66 109 67 61.9%

(For the following, good & bad losses are ones that have earned or lost more than 40 points.)

#1 BigEast
Went 2-0 this week, beating I-AA Texas Southern and Southern Miss.
Good Wins: UConn @ 5-2 Ohio, Cincy @ 4-2 Oregon St
Bad Losses: None

#2 SEC
2-0 this weekend, but their opponents went 15-21 - the cupcakes are starting to drag them down...
Good Wins: Alabama v 5-2 Virginia Tech, Auburn vs 5-1 West Virginia
Bad Losses: None

#3 Big12
Their opponents went 18-15 this week, helping them a bit.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

#4 Big10
1-0 this weekend, Michigan over cupcake Delaware St
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

#5 Pac10
The Trojan win vs ND helps, but their opponents went a mediocre 14-13. Meh.
Good Wins: USC @ 5-2 Ohio State, Washington vs 6-1 Idaho, Arizona vs 6-1 Central Michigan, USC @ 4-2 Notre Dame, Oregon @ 5-1 Utah.
Bad Losses: Washington State vs 2-4 Hawaii

#6 ACC
1-0 this weekend, Miami over UCF
Good Wins: Florida State @ 6-1 BYU, NC State vs 6-1 Pittsburgh, North Carolina vs 4-2 UConn
Bad Losses: Virginia vs I-AA William & Mary, Duke vs I-AA Richmond

#7 MtnWest
Their opponents went 12-14 this weekend, and they don't have a signature win. Ow.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: BYU vs 2-4 Florida State, New Mexico vs 3-4 New Mexico State

#8 WAC
Their opponents went 11-17 this weekend, but at least they didn't go winless.
Good Wins: Boise State @ 5-1 Oregon, Boise State @ 4-2 Tulsa
Bad Losses: New Mexico State vs 2-4 UTEP

#9 CUSA
A rough 0-5 this weekend - ouch.
Good Wins: Houston @ 5-1 Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: SMU @ 1-5 Washington St, Rice @ 2-5 Vanderbilt

#10 MAC
1-0 this weekend. At least they're not last.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Ball State vs I-AA New Hampshire, Temple vs I-AA Villanova, Ball State vs 1-5 North Texas, Eastern Michigan vs 3-4 Army

#11 SunBelt
Opponents were just 15-15, which isn't good enough to stay ahead of the MAC.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Western Kentucky vs I-AA Central Arkansas

at Sunday, October 18, 2009

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4 comments:

PeteP said...

Just a little confused by the NM loss to NM st being a bad loss. NM is horrible and NM State has a better coach.

Likewise for UTEP loss to NM St -- UTEP stinks (except for that crazy game against Houston), so how is this a bad OOC loss?

Just curious.

12:53 AM, October 20, 2009
Ed Gunther said...

Fair enough questions, Pete.

While you're right, New Mexico State and New Mexico are pretty bad that doesn't factor in: what matters to the computer is how terrible their opponents (UTEP and New Mexico State, respectively) are. If you just look at the factors the computer takes into account, New Mexico lost to a 3-4 team from a weak conferences at home, while New Mexico State lost to a 2-4 team at home by 26 points. Those are the things the computer's seeing. (My system does put a premium on location - losing at home loses a lot of points while winning on the road gains a lot.)

If it makes any difference though, both of these games are right on the -40 point threshhold and are definitely two of the best Bad Losses, if that makes sense.

9:06 AM, October 20, 2009
Tommy said...

Hi Ed,

First off, I really appreciate the work that you put into the site. The spreadsheets you put up are some of the most informative and thought provoking that I've found on the net, and I also enjoy hearing your take on college football sundries.

My question: what aspect of your conference v conference achievement rankings causes wins to not be completely reflexive, i.e. a win for one team doesn't net equal and opposite points as a loss for its opponent? Trying to tangle with some of the implications of these rankings on a more micro scale.

Thanks a lot,
Tommy from Los Angeles

12:16 AM, October 22, 2009
Ed Gunther said...

Hey Tommy, thanks for the kind words. The base points a team earns are completely reflexive - just not in the way you might think. A win always earns points, and a loss always loses points. Within those parameters...

Most Earned: Win over team w/ high points
Least Earned: Win over team w/ low (negative) points
Least Lost: Loss to team w/ high points
Most Lost: Loss to team w/ low (negative) points

The most and least are mirror images of each other. For example, beating a team with 100 points might earn you 25 points, while losing to a team with -100 points will lose you -25 points. It's not as if in a contest between 5-0 Penn State and 5-0 Iowa the winner would earn 50 points and the loser would lose -50 points. Make sense? The reason individual games' points earned/lost don't mirror each other often is because teams aren't usually exact mirrors of each other, points-wise. Sometimes it happens - Oregon is at 141 points right now, while Washington State is at -136. The Ducks earned a base of 23 points for that win, while the Cougars lost a base of -23 points for the loss.

Hope this helps.

2:16 PM, October 22, 2009

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