Saturday, November 12, 2011

Week 11 Predictions

Texas (-1.5) @ Missouri

The Longhorns are slowly working their way back up the mountain, while the Tigers have been inconsistent all season. The Tigers play better at home, but at basically even I think they'll need a few good bounces for things to go their way.

The Call: Texas by 7

The Result: Missouri 17-5

Ooohhh... this is gonna be a rough week picking. The Tigers got those bounces and were able to control things. Props.

Wake Forest @ Clemson (-16.5)

Last time out the Tigers lost to Georgia Tech to break their undefeated season. They've had two weeks to get over it, and I think it was more of a blip than an exposure. The Demon Deacons were looking good at 5-2 just a few weeks ago, but two straight losses have them reeling a bit. This isn't a matchup that favors them.

The Call: Clemson by 21

The Result: Clemson 31-28

And yet the Demon Deacons were able to keep things close despite being outgained by 200 yards. Those three turnovers they got helped, but the Tigers kept things on track.

Michigan State @ Iowa (+2.5)

The Hawkeyes had a solid win over a good Michigan team last week, and could throw a huge monkeywrench into their Big10 division with a win. The Spartans rebounded from their loss to Nebraska with a lackluster performance against Minnesota. This spread is about right, but that makes it a bit tougher... When uncertain go with Chaos in November.

The Call: Iowa by 7

The Result: Michigan State 37-21

This isn't the chaos I was looking for... Spartans back on top.

Florida (+3) @ South Carolina

As far as the SEC East goes, this is one of two that could determine the champion today. The Gamecocks are handling their adversity much better than I thought they would, and that's with losing to Arkansas by 16 last week. The Gators haven't covered a spread since September, and this one isn't at home, but I think they'll have enough in the tank to get it done on the road.

The Call: Florida by 4

The Result: South Carolina 17-12

So the Gators are 3-5 in the SEC and will need the game against Furman next week to become bowl eligible... Not the drop off that was expected this season. The Gamecocks are able to hang in there, but their time will run out next week when UGA beats Kentucky.

Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech (+20)

Can the Red Raiders knock off another top-5 team from the state just north? Yes, but I'm still having a hard time figuring out how they beat Oklahoma. That was one of those games where everything fell into place for them, and to do it again, especially in the same season, would be near-miraculous. Covering the spread however... Nah.

The Call: Oklahoma State by 24

The Result: Oklahoma 66-6

Yeah, I'm a believer in the Cowboys now. The finale against the Sooners is gonna be monstrous.

Buffalo (+3.5) @ Eastern Michigan

Eh, why not?

The Call: Eastern Michigan by 7

The Result: Eastern Michigan 30-17

Yeah, I needed that one. Bad.

Arizona @ Colorado (+10)

The Buffs have had some huge spreads in their favor in the last 6 weeks, but haven't been able to cover any of them. Ten points is the fewest they've gotten in a long while, which doesn't bode well. The Wildcats have had a rough go of it, the only bright spot being their win over UCLA a few weeks back. But I think they still have the personnel to get it done.

The Call: Arizona by 13

The Result: Colorado 48-29

Or not. The Wildcats need to make a big hire soon for a new head coach that's gonna turn their program around, because they're going nowhere fast. Solid first win in the Pac12 for the Buffs, but they need to do better themselves.

Miami (+9.5) @ Florida State

A tricky one here. The Canes have been up and down this season, posting both bad losses and good wins. The Seminoles are back on track after their 3-game losing streak that dropped them out of the top 25. I think the Seminoles are sturdier and less mistake prone right now, and their D should be able to get them through.

The Call: Florida State by 14

The Result: Florida State 23-19

Ah, that was close - thought they could keep the cover there at the end.

Auburn @ Georgia (-12)

That spread seems awfully big... The Dawgs can clinch a trip to the SEC Championship game today if things fall their way, but the Tigers always present a tough matchup. They're on a hot streak though, and I think Richt will pull out all the stops (as much as he can).

The Call: Georgia wins, but Auburn covers the spread

The Result: Georgia 45-7

What Tigers team was that? Yikes. The Dawgs are on a tear and should be able to finish the next two weeks strong.

Texas A&M (-5.5) @ Kansas State

So the Wildcats go from undefeated two weeks ago to getting points at home from a 5-4 team? I don't think so.

The Call: Kansas State by 10

The Result: Kansas State 53-50

Doozy of a game there. Good to see.

TCU (+16) @ Boise State

The Horned Frogs are solid, but not up to their usual standards. The Broncos are. This one could be close, but I doubt it.

The Call: Boise State by 21

The Result: TCU 36-35

Maybe some karma going on there after that phantom pass interference call that kept the Broncos' last drive going. But the Horned Frogs came to play, and they regained a bit of their swagger. The Broncos drop one at the end for the second season in a row, so now the only real possibility for a BCS-buster is going to be Houston.

Washington @ USC (-11.5)

The Trojans are 2-2 in covering double-digit spreads this season, but those two wins were against Colorado and Syracuse. The Huskies are going to be a lot tougher, and while I think they'll be able to put points on the board, their D just isn't going to be enough against Barkley & Woods.

The Call: USC wins, but Washington covers the spread

The Result: USC 40-17

Woods had a quiet day, but the Trojans' running game has jumped to life these last few weeks. That matchup with Oregon next week just got a whole lot more interesting. The Huskies just didn't get anything going - too many three and outs, too many special teams lapses, too many penalties... Not their best effort.

Tennessee @ Arkansas (-14.5)

Yeah, I still think the Razorbacks are overrated. But the Vols won't be able to do anything to dispel that notion.

The Call: Arkansas by 17

The Result: Arkansas 49-7

So the Vols are winless in the SEC, huh? Pathetic that they can still make it to a bowl if they beat Kentucky and Vandy. I'm starting to come around to the Razorbacks, but I wouldn't favor them against anyone else in the Top10.

Western Kentucky @ LSU (-41.5)

That's a really big spread, especially considering the Hilltoppers have won five straight. Is the Tigers D good enough to hold them scoreless? Of course. Is the Tigers O good enough to put up 42+? Yes, they've topped that three times this season and scored 35+ against four others, others that are better. Throw in the fact that their D can score, and I'd say that a pretty safe bet.

The Call: LSU by 45

The Result: LSU 42-9

Aw, jeez. Really? I know they're not trying to run the score up, and sometimes teams start slow, but c'mon.

Alabama (-17.5) @ Mississippi State

The Bulldogs are much worse than their 5-4 record would indicate - they've beaten Kentucky and 4 cupcakes. This one will be over 20 minutes in.

The Call: Alabama by 35

The Result: Alabama 24-7

That wasn't good, on either side. I'm starting to doubt that Bama is the best 1-loss team out there...

Oregon @ Stanford (-3)

This one should be a good game, if only just for the difference in styles. The Ducks are rolling after dropping their first game to LSU, which is retrospect isn't that bad of a loss at all. And you gotta believe that last year's game when they were up big in the first quarter and then blew it will be at the forefront of the Cardinal's mind. They won't let that happen again, and controlling the line should help them keep their foot on the gas the whole time.

The Call: Stanford by 10

The Result: Oregon 53-30

And that's what happens when you turn the ball over, folks. The Ducks put together a great all around effort and managed to mix-up Luck and the Cardinal. They probably won't get into the title game, but the Rose Bowl is a nice consolation.

Ugly weekend. 10-6 straight up, and a pathetic 4-12 against the spread. Just gotta forget it and bounce back.

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