Friday, December 2, 2011

Week 14 Predictions

Ohio (+3) v Northern Illinois

These two are pretty similar in most ways - same record, same record against the spread, same general stats... But I've gotta go with the Huskies here, if only because they've been on a bigger winning streak and lost to better teams.

The Call: Northern Illinois by 7

The Result: Northern Illinois 23-20

Maybe I should just pick all MAC games next season. I'll take the tie.

UCLA (+31.5) @ Oregon

Don't count the Bruins out of this one - sure they're coach is on his way out, and they had to file for an exemption to go to a bowl, and they lost to Arizona and Utah, and they don't really have a defense to speak of... nah, go ahead and count them out.

The Call: Oregon by 42

The Result: Oregon 49-31

Well, at least they covered the spread. That's something I guess.

Southern Miss v Houston (-13.5)

Listen, I know that Houston hasn't played the level of competition as some of the 1-loss teams out there vying for the last BCS title game spot, but they're still undefeated. If there was ever a year to give the little guy a shot, this is it.

The Call: Houston by 21

The Result: Southern Miss 49-28

And there goes that shot. The non-BCS teams will be lucky to get someone into a BCS game this year now, costing a bunch of schools a bunch of money. Too bad.

Texas (+3) @ Baylor

Will RGIII be as effective against the Longhorns as he was against the Sooners? Probably.

The Call: Baylor by 7

The Result: Baylor 48-24

Did that wrap up the Heisman for RGIII? Maybe. He has better stats than Luck and had just as horrible a team to bring up from the depths, but he does have more talent around him to work with. He's a better athlete than Richardson, but probably won't be as heavily valued by the NFL. Tough choice, but at least it'll make things interesting for the next week.

LSU (-13.5) v Georgia

The Dawgs haven't faced a team with a pulse since September, but they've started to click on both sides of the ball. The Tigers haven't faced many teams with good defense, and I'd bet that their offense has some trouble here.

The Call: LSU wins, but Georgia covers the spread

The Result: LSU 42-10

Aside from the blatant SEC homer shilling from Danielson & Lundquist, this was an amazing game to watch. The thing about the LSU defense isn't that it's good at stopping the opponent, which it is, but that it's so unbelievable at completely turning the tables and setting up the offense. It's as if their Defense/Special Teams is that significant other who's intelligent, kind, good looking, and funny, and then goes way beyond that by being a great and caring partner on top of it all. Here honey, have the ball inside the 20. What, you'd like a pick 6 or return TD so you can rest a bit more? No problem. What offense wouldn't want that?

Oklahoma (+3.5) @ Oklahoma State

Both of these teams have been looking ahead to this game for a while now, and I gotta believe that the Sooners are gonna be better prepared and coming in with more of a chip on their shoulder. The Cowboys hopes of busting into the BCS are legitimate, and the ball could bounce their way, but I don't think it will.

The Call: Oklahoma by 7

The Result: Oklahoma State 44-10

Yup, that was a whuppin'. The Cowboys didn't need the ball to bounce their way, which is good because that gives them a better chance of it bouncing their way in the BCS rankings. All those SEC arguments about "no rematch" from five years ago when it was between Florida and Michigan to face #1 Ohio State? They still apply - give the Cowboys the shot.

Virginia Tech v Clemson (+7)

If you're basing this one solely on momentum, it's gotta go to the Hokies.

The Call: Virginia Tech by 10

The Result: Clemson 38-10

And that's why it's never good to base picks solely off momentum, kids. Props to the Tigers for coming back and showing that they deserve to be in a BCS game. Wonder what Spurrier thinks of that.

Michigan State v Wisconsin (-9.5)

That's kind of a big spread... I think the Badgers will get some measure of revenge here, but it's gonna be another close one.

The Call: Wisconsin wins, but Michigan State covers the spread

The Result: Wisconsin 42-39

Another solid, entertaining game. The Badgers will be a great match for the Ducks in Pasadena.

Another poor week. Just 5-3 straight up, and 2.5-5.5 against the spread. Argh. That brings the regular season totals to 140-56 straight up (71.4%), and 94.5-102.5 against the spread (47.9%). Gonna have to do better with the bowls.

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