Sunday, November 18, 2007

Prediction Outcomes, Week 12

Oregon (-12.5) @ Arizona: Arizona 34-24 The Ducks know they have their work cut out for them in getting to the NC game - LSU is there if they win out, and it's going to be a tight race if one of the three Big 12 teams in the top 5 wins out. So the order of the day is style points, something that is achievable in the desert against the Wildcats.
Oregon by 17 = The Ducks were on their way until Dixon got hurt, but their defense collapsed too, which really hurt them. And so next week's game between Arizona State and USC will decide the Pac 10 championship.

West Virginia (-6.5) @ Cincinnati: West Virginia 28-23 The Bearcats are sitting pretty at 8-2, and should find themselves in a decent bowl game, which is a move up for them. The Mountaineers should be in for a fight, but they seem like they've got something to prove... I wouldn't want to get their offense mad.
West Virginia by 14 = Turnovers are really hurting the Mountaineers, especially when they need to not just play good but look good.

Vanderbilt (+11.5) @ Tennessee: Tennessee 25-24 Back in 2005, the Commodores beat the Vols in Knoxville. Can they do it again? Maybe? Could it happen? Nope.
Tennessee by 13 = But the Commodores came damn close. Doink.

Oklahoma (-8) @ Texas Tech: Texas Tech 34-27 The Sooners still have a shot at the NC game, but they'll have to win out to stay alive. The good news is that their schedule is easier than Missouri's or Kansas's, mainly because those two have to play each other. Mike Leach and the Red Raiders have been a bit rattled all week - have they spent too much time complaining and not enough training? The Sooners won't let it be close enough for the refs to make a difference.
Oklahoma by 17 = Yeah, that wasn't close at all, at least until the Sooners decided to start playing in the 4th quarter.

Duke (+6) @ Notre Dame: Notre Dame 28-7 This one's gonna be ugly, you can just feel it.
Duke by 3 = The Irish Cover the Spread! The Irish Cover the Spread!

Kentucky (+7.5) @ Georgia: Georgia 24-13 I gotta say, I'm feeling a bit better about the Dawgs since they've been on a tear. They should be able to hold off the Wildcats. (Psst - I had the epiphany that the Dawgs will usually do the opposite of what I predict, so I'm putting that hypothesis to the test this week. I really think it'll be close and possibly even a loss, but that's on the down low. Shhh.)
Georgia by 14 = Another Dawg theory out the window.

Boston College (+7.5) @ Clemson: Boston College 20-17 Alright, this one's basically for the ACC Atlantic Division. Who wants it more? The Tigers are climbing, while the Eagles are tumbling.
Clemson by 10 = Well, it appears the Eagles tumbled their way into the ACC Championship game. Well done guys, good rebound in a tough environment.

Wisconsin (-14) @ Minnesota: Wisconsin 41-34 Hmmm... I want to take the Badgers by a lot, but they've been shifty this year. Good thing the Golden Gophers haven't.
Wisconsin by 17 = The Badgers have won some really ugly games this year - I'm curious to see how they'll do in their bowl game.

Missouri (-7.5) @ Kansas State: Missouri 49-32 The Wildcats are hard to pin down this year too. A good win (@ Texas), some bad losses (@ Iowa State, @ Nebraska), but they're 1-3 in their past 4 games. The Tigers' only blemish is a loss at Oklahoma - other than that they're looking great. Like Oregon, they need style points.
Missouri by 17 = Another solid win for the Tigers. Next week vs Kansas is going to be huge.

California (-7) @ Washington: Washington 37-23 Oh, how the Bears have fallen. A month ago they were on the verge of being #1, but they've only won one game since. They're already bowl eligible (and will be even more so after they beat Stanford in the last week of the season), but if they don't win this one they have a serious chance of being left home during the holidays at 7-5 because of their second-half implosion. The Huskies will most likely be without their star QB, which doesn't bode well for them.
California by 10 = Solid win for Washington, and Cal's slide continues.

Iowa State (+26.5) @ Kansas 45-7 This one depends on the Cyclones. They've looked really bad at times this season, losing to Kent State and D1-AA Northern Iowa, but they've beaten Kansas State & Colorado in consecutive weeks this November. So which team will show up? Kansas doesn't really have anything to prove - win out and they should be in the NC game. I'm not saying they'll play it cautious, but I think it could be closer than the spread if the ball bounces the Cyclone's way.
Kansas wins, but Iowa State covers the spread = No bounces, no way Cyclones.

North Carolina (+10) @ Georgia Tech: Georgia Tech 27-25 I must admit, I'm tempted to call the Tar Heels number on this one. Just a gut feeling. But I think the gut is just getting ready for Thanksgiving.
Georgia Tech by 13 = Mmmm, turkey.

Another week, another brutal round of picks. This has been a hell of a season for choosing games.
Straight up I was 7 of 12 (58.33%)
Against the Spread I was an absolutely pathetic 2 of 12 (16.67%)
Yearly Totals: 97 of 144 (67.36%) straight up, 66.5 of 144 (46.18%) against the spread.


BCSBusters said...

Oregon's defense did not collapse. The defense only gave up 10 of the 34 points.

If you consider the interception return, punt return and the interception return after what should have been a touchdown for the Ducks returned all the way inside the Duck 40, that's 21 of the 34 points that the defense had nothing to do with. There was a field goal there set up by a Duck fumble as well. 24 of the 34 points the Defense had nothing to do with.

Quit listening to the bogus announcers who lazily promote a now 10 year smear campaign against PAC-10 defenses. Check out the scores in the SEC and Big-12 this year. Some great defense there?

As a matter of fact, if the Ducks hadn't performed so admirably, the Ducks would have been woefully blown out.

Ed Gunther said...

You make some good points, and perhaps "collapse" is too strong of a word, but "admirably" might be pushing it as well. Oregon's defense has had a bend-but-don't-break type of year, giving up lots of yards but not too many points. Until Thursday they'd been able to keep the big plays to a minimum, but when they needed to clamp down, knowing that Leaf wasn't going to be able to put up the numbers Dixon usually does, they couldn't do it, giving up 2 passing TD's of over 30 yards as well as that punt return TD. You're right, the special teams deserves some blame - it wasn't the D's fault completely, but 34 is the most points the team as a whole has allowed all year. Some nights things just don't go your way.