Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Alabama non-conf scheduling

[Legend]

Alabama 1998-2007
Average Rank = 70
Gms vs @ v %vs BCS non AA %BCS avW 10+ 10+% T10 T% 0 0%
36 26 4 6 72.2% 6 28 2 16.7% 5.4 9 25.0% 6 16.7% 15 41.7%
NCAA Ranks 97 109 39 72 57 46

Analysis: The Tide's rankings are all over the place, from a high of #39 to a low of #109. They hardly ever play BCS teams, but their non-BCS opponents are usually about average toughness. The usual schedule is a reverse Goldilocks+1 - an above average non-BCS team (usually Southern Miss), an average non-BCS team, and a below average non-BCS team, and maybe a BCS team added in.

Fact: The reason Alabama's %vs ranking isn't worse (they've only played four games at their opponent's home field) is because they played six games at neutral-site Birmingham, about 50 miles away.

Fact: Alabama's opponents' average wins is jaggedly getting worse. In the first six years of the BCS era, the low was 5.4, and four of those years it was over 6. In the last four years, the high has been 5.5 and the low 3.3.

2008 Outlook: The neutral-site game with Clemson (in Atlanta) should be a test, but the others (Arkansas State, Tulane, & Western Kentucky) are easy. One of the easiest in 2008.

[Legend]

Alabama Year-by-Year Opponents over the last 5 years...
Date vs/@ oConf Opponent Type Avg Wins Hi Wins Final Ranking
8/30/08 v ACC Clemson BCS 8 9 22,-,21,-,22
9/6/08 vs CUSA Tulane non 4 5 -,-,-,-,-
9/13/08 vs SunBelt Western Kentucky non 0 0 -,-,-,-,-
11/1/08 vs SunBelt Arkansas St non 5 6 -,-,-,-,-
9/1/07 vs zAA W Carolina zAA 0 0 -,-,-,-,-
9/29/07 v ACC Florida St BCS 8.6 10 23,10,14,23,-
10/6/07 vs CUSA Houston non 6.2 10 -,-,-,-,31
11/17/07 vs SunBelt LA Monroe non 3.6 5 -,-,-,-,-
9/2/06 vs WAC Hawaii non 8.2 10 32,33,34,41,-
9/16/06 vs SunBelt LA Monroe non 3.2 5 -,-,-,-,-
10/7/06 vs ACC Duke BCS 1.8 4 -,-,-,-,-
10/28/06 vs SunBelt Florida Intl non 0 0 -,-,-,-,-
9/3/05 vs SunBelt Middle Tenn St non 5.4 8 -,-,-,-,-
9/10/05 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 7.4 9 30,-,-,33,-
10/29/05 vs WAC Utah St non 3.8 5 -,-,-,-,-
9/4/04 vs SunBelt Utah St non 4 5 -,-,-,-,-
9/18/04 vs zAA W Carolina zAA 0 0 -,-,-,-,-
10/16/04 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 7.8 9 13,30,-,-,33
8/30/03 v CUSA South Florida non 3.4 9 -,-,-,-,29
9/6/03 vs Big12 Oklahoma BCS 9.6 13 -,38,1,6,5
9/20/03 vs MAC N Illinois non 5.4 8 -,-,-,-,-
10/11/03 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 7.4 9 -,13,30,-,-
11/29/03 @ WAC Hawaii non 6.2 10 -,30,-,32,33
8/31/02 v SunBelt Middle Tenn St non 3.4 8 -,-,-,-,-
9/7/02 @ Big12 Oklahoma BCS 8 13 -,-,38,1,6
9/14/02 vs SunBelt North Texas non 3.4 5 -,-,-,-,-
9/21/02 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 7.8 9 19,-,13,30,-
11/30/02 @ WAC Hawaii non 4.8 9 -,-,30,-,32
9/1/01 vs Pac10 UCLA BCS 7 10 -,5,8,-,-
10/6/01 v WAC UTEP non 4.4 8 -,-,-,-,-
11/29/01 v CUSA Southern Miss non 8.2 9 32,19,-,13,30
9/2/00 @ Pac10 UCLA BCS 7.2 10 30,-,5,8,-
9/16/00 v CUSA Southern Miss non 7.8 9 -,32,19,-,13
10/28/00 vs Indy UCF non 4.6 9 -,-,-,-,-
9/11/99 vs CUSA Houston non 3.2 7 -,-,-,-,-
9/18/99 vs Indy Louisiana Tech non 5.8 9 -,-,-,29,-
10/30/99 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 7.2 9 -,-,32,19,-
9/5/98 vs WAC BYU non 8.6 14 30,10,-,5,-
10/17/98 vs CUSA East Carolina non 6.2 9 -,-,23,30,-
10/31/98 vs CUSA Southern Miss non 6.4 9 -,-,-,32,19

[Legend]

Arkansas 1998-2007
Average Rank = 95
Gms vs @ v %vs BCS non AA %BCS avW 10+ 10+% T10 T% 0 0%
34 20 4 10 58.8% 4 25 5 11.8% 3.8 6 17.6% 4 11.8% 26 76.5%
NCAA Ranks 63 115 105 95 77 115

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