Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Maryland - Nevada

the Roady's Humanitarian Bowl
Tuesday, December 30th, 4:30pm
Boise, Idaho
Maryland
(7-5)______ACC______52.23
Wk Opp oPts Score
1 Delaware -422.55 W, 14-7
2 Middle TN State -134.69 L, 14-24
3 California 160.52 W, 35-27
4 Eastern Michigan -260.22 W, 51-24
5 Clemson 128.12 W, 20-17
6 Virginia 36.10 L, 0-31
8 Wake Forest 218.86 W, 26-0
9 NC State 102.87 W, 27-24
11 Virginia Tech 274.79 L, 13-23
12 North Carolina 231.66 W, 17-15
13 Florida State 210.67 L, 3-37
14 Boston College 253.65 L, 21-28
Nevada
(7-5)______WAC_____34.12
Wk Opp oPts Score
1 Grambling State -430.48 W, 49-13
2 Texas Tech 382.54 L, 19-35
3 Missouri 198.41 L, 17-69
5 UNLV -108.41 W, 49-27
6 Idaho -316.44 W, 49-14
7 New Mexico State -269.98 L, 45-48
8 Utah State -184.14 W, 44-17
9 Hawaii 12.83 L, 31-38
11 Fresno State 63.06 W, 41-28
12 San Jose State -37.52 W, 41-17
13 Boise State 376.20 L, 34-41
14 Louisiana Tech 13.10 W, 35-31

Maryland has played the tougher schedule and beaten the better teams. But they've lost to teams they shouldn't have this year, and Nevada falls into that category. Will traveling all the way to Boise effect the Terrapins? The Wolfpack might feel more at home in the west.

Stats Matchup
Team Maryland Nevada
Points (rank) 52.23 (#54) 34.12 (#57)
Record 6-6 7-5
Opp. Points (rank) 799.78 (#18) -300.83 (#75)
Opp. Record 76-59 72-63
Points (% of Opp. Avg) 17.9 (78%) 37.8 (144%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg) 23.6 (101%) 31.5 (117%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 134.5 (90%) 291.4 (185%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 149.4 (122%) 74.5 (60%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 207.4 (112%) 219.2 (99%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 205.6 (106%) 321.1 (139%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 341.9 (103%) 510.6 (136%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 355.0 (109%) 395.6 (106%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 105.8 (84%) 115.7 (87%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 103.1 (84%) 182.8 (150%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds 4.6 / 40.5 7.1 / 59.8
TO's / TO Margin 1.8 / -8 1.8 / +1

Big discrepancy in the average PPG of these two, definitely in favor of Nevada. Maryland is probably going to have to go to the air or brake some returns if they're going to move the ball. The numbers point towards Nevada big time, but Maryland has stumped me this year - who knows what they're going to do.

The Line: Nevada -1.5

The Call: Nevada by 7

The Result: Maryland 42-35

Or Maryland by 7 - either way, the Terrapins have been nothing but an enigma for calling this year. Oh well. They played well, held on when they needed to, and defeated the blue turf. Well done. (I should've known, betting on the WAC.)

2 comments:

nms said...

One of the results on Maryland's schedule is incorrect. The Terrapins beat Wake Forest 26-0, not the other way around. Just thought I'd let you know.

Ed Gunther said...

Whoops - thanks for the catch.