Thursday, January 1, 2009

Mississippi - Texas Tech

the Cotton Bowl
Friday, January 2nd, 2:00pm
Dallas, Texas
Mississippi
(8-4)______SEC______180.41
Wk Opp oPts Score
1 Memphis -100.89 W, 41-24
2 Wake Forest 268.32 L, 28-30
3 Samford -416.02 W, 34-10
4 Vanderbilt 26.46 L, 17-23
5 Florida 473.27 W, 31-30
6 South Carolina 93.53 L, 24-31
8 Alabama 390.74 L, 20-24
9 Arkansas -38.58 W, 23-21
10 Auburn -69.61 W, 17-7
12 LA-Monroe -215.72 W, 59-0
13 LSU 61.99 W, 31-13
14 Mississippi State -140.39 W, 45-0
Texas Tech
(11-1)______Big12_____382.54
Wk Opp oPts Score
1 Eastern Washington -439.37 W, 49-24
2 Nevada 35.29 W, 35-19
3 SMU -370.81 W, 43-7
4 Massachusetts -411.47 W, 56-14
6 Kansas State -87.46 W, 58-28
7 Nebraska 157.90 W, 37-31
8 Texas A&M -147.50 W, 43-25
9 Kansas 94.61 W, 63-21
10 Texas 462.59 W, 39-33
11 Oklahoma State 222.81 W, 56-20
13 Oklahoma 557.08 L, 21-65
14 Baylor -103.46 W, 35-28

Overall, Texas Tech had the easier schedule because they played two I-AA cupcakes. But they also had better wins - Mississippi only beat two teams in the blue.

Stats Matchup
Team Mississippi Texas Tech
Points (rank) 180.41 (#30) 382.54 (#7)
Record 8-4 11-1
Opp. Points (rank) 285.52 (#42) -143.73 (#65)
Opp. Record 76-59 68-56
Points (% of Opp. Avg) 30.8 (147%) 44.6 (150%)
dPoints (% of Opp. Avg) 17.8 (74%) 26.3 (90%)
Rush Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 183.4 (135%) 118.9 (86%)
dRush Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 83.9 (57%) 133.5 (87%)
Pass Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 215.3 (115%) 417.3 (171%)
dPass Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 209.8 (111%) 238.1 (98%)
Tot Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 398.7 (123%) 536.2 (133%)
dTot Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 293.8 (86%) 371.6 (93%)
ST Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 122.9 (102%) 105.8 (77%)
dST Yds (% of Opp. Avg) 124.8 (103%) 142.8 (111%)
Penalties / Pen. Yds 5.3 / 50.8 7.3 / 60.1
TO's / TO Margin 1.8 / -1 1.6 / +7

The Rebels held their opponents to just 57% of their average rushing yards this season, but that's not going to help them much here against the pass-happy Red Raiders. Seems like a really small spread...

The Line: Texas Tech -4.5

The Call: Texas Tech by 14

The Result: Mississippi 47-34

Uh-oh - things aren't looking too good for the Big12 right now. The #4 team in the conference, Oklahoma State, lost to Oregon, and now the #3 team in the conference, Texas Tech, lost to Mississippi. Now I don't subscribe to the notion that bowls mean everything - they're not an indicator of a team's overall season. But after hearing for four months about how dominant the Big12 was, they're certainly not showing it now that they're playing decent non-conference competition. (Incidentally, how funny is it that the Big12 south's weak brother, the north, accounted for most of the conference's bowl wins? They're 3-0 already, whereas the south is 0-2.)

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