Monday, October 5, 2009

How Far We've Come (Or Not)

Let me tell you a story.

It starts with a truth you already know: the driving force behind advances in college football is money. It always has been, and dare I say, always will be.

In the 1940's, some schools were convinced that radio broadcasts of games were eating into their ticket sales (though there was no proof of this), and they were none too pleased. When games started to be broadcast on that new fandangled television set, schools again became jumpy for the same reason (money). The NCAA stepped in and it agreed that they would limit the number of games shown on television. But though there was overwhelming support for this, some schools dissented, namely Penn and Notre Dame, whose teams were already reaping the benefits of playing in televised games. The usual words were bantered about with regard to the NCAA's controlling actions - "communism", "socialism", and the like. (Sound familiar?)

A few decades passed, and the NCAA became a financially stable institution. As the number of programs grew, so did the NCAA's organizational structure. At first they divided schools into two categories - College or University - and this lasted for a while. But the growing continued, and eventually in 1973 the division format came about. This helped slightly, but it also shined a light on the fact that teams still weren't happy with what they saw as not getting their fair share of the increasing revenue the sport generated. At the time, there were over 230 schools in Division I, all sharing the money that just a handful of them generated.

A few dozen of the largest football powers got together and formed the College Football Association (CFA) with the main goal of having the top programs all in one division - around 80 would be good, they thought. That way they'd all get a bigger piece of the pie they contributed to. Stadium size, attendance, and other considerations were the categories they'd use to separate themselves from the others in Division I. But they didn't have the numbers to get this legislation passed. In the end, they had to accept some of the smaller schools proposals, such as attendance examptions for schools that sponsored 12 sports, but the split into I-A and I-AA was made official. There were still over 130 Division I-A schools, but it was victory for the CFA.

But they didn't stop there. Made up of mainly the current BCS schools minus the Big10 and Pac10, the CFA stayed banded together to try to wrest control of their organization from the NCAA. They tried to set up yet another division, Division IV, which would have been made up of the major football powers (another attempt to get their numbers down to the 80 range), but this failed. Their other venture, getting control of the television contracts away from the NCAA (in order to get more money, of course) ended in a victory though. In 1985 they succeeded when a federal court found the NCAA in violation of the Sherman Anti-trust Act, paving the way for the conferences and teams to negotiate their own television contracts.

And that's just what they did. The CFA dissolved in the early 1990's when the conferences started to rise to power. The Bowl Coalition was formed in 1992, made up of the old CFA members, and then the current BCS started in 1998 when the Big10 and Pac10 were brought into the fold. The football powerhouses finally got what they'd been fighting decades for: control over their revenue streams and fewer partners to share it with. Oh - and vast sums of money too. Let's not forget the vast sums of money.

They wanted a split between the top revenue & attendance programs and the smaller, less profittable teams, and they basically got it, as the following table shows. Of course, there are some non-BCS schools who bring in crowds, and some BCS schools who don't. Things get a little mixed up in the middle there. But the dividing line doesn't have to be just attendance based. The last column on the right lists each teams record from 1998 to the present against members of the opposite division - BCS teams have records against non-BCS listed and vice versa. Go ahead and click a couple times on the column header... only 2 non-BCS teams have a winning record vs the BCS, and only 2 BCS teams have a losing record vs the non-BCS. As I'm often fond of saying, parity schmarity.

Things really haven't changed much, have they? In fact, if you think back at all college football has been through, the powerhouse programs have been pulling away from the rest of the pack for a long time now. That's the direction college football has headed for decades. And as much as all the yelling over fair competition and a "true" national championship might try to pull it in a more inclusive way, it's just fighting the tide.

Team Attendance Average by Year
Team 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 vs non/BCS
Michigan 110,822 109,908 110,576 110,918 111,025 110,915 110,026 110,264 108,571 non: 21-02
Penn St 095,543 107,576 107,239 105,629 103,111 104,859 107,567 108,917 108,254 non: 19-01
Ohio St 097,757 103,532 103,488 104,870 104,876 105,017 105,096 105,110 104,976 non: 24-00
Tennessee 107,595 106,843 106,705 105,038 106,644 107,593 105,789 103,918 101,448 non: 26-01
Texas 082,216 083,062 083,150 083,339 083,094 083,333 088,505 085,144 098,046 non: 29-00
Georgia 084,487 086,520 086,520 092,058 092,746 092,746 092,746 092,746 092,746 non: 17-00
LSU 087,815 090,491 090,307 090,974 091,209 091,580 092,212 092,619 092,383 non: 25-02
Alabama 083,770 082,312 082,857 082,388 081,870 081,018 092,138 092,138 092,138 non: 27-07
Florida 085,253 085,432 085,185 090,177 088,409 090,406 090,409 090,388 090,544 non: 20-00
Auburn 082,435 085,449 082,943 085,203 083,085 084,161 085,063 084,689 086,915 non: 22-00
USC 057,339 057,743 066,853 077,804 085,229 090,812 091,480 087,476 086,793 non: 14-02
Oklahoma 075,075 075,384 075,104 083,202 084,532 084,331 084,561 084,858 085,075 non: 24-03
Nebraska 077,878 077,555 077,802 077,754 077,692 077,485 085,044 084,501 085,071 non: 22-01
Texas A&M 077,579 082,711 080,198 076,243 074,498 079,732 075,985 082,207 082,193 non: 26-02
Wisconsin 078,711 078,333 078,023 078,486 082,368 082,551 081,368 081,747 081,088 non: 26-03
Notre Dame 080,302 080,795 080,818 080,795 080,795 080,795 080,795 080,821 080,795 non: 20-03
S Carolina 081,904 082,614 082,138 080,844 080,367 079,867 075,630 078,467 080,529 non: 17-02
Clemson 081,214 078,883 075,714 075,286 079,667 078,232 081,000 081,335 078,571 non: 13-02
Florida St 080,831 081,441 081,766 083,149 082,841 082,724 080,532 080,597 077,968 non: 10-01
Michigan St 074,023 073,715 073,942 072,830 073,602 075,183 070,819 070,540 074,858 non: 17-04
UCLA 067,280 064,613 065,396 056,636 060,515 064,218 064,955 076,379 072,795 non: 15-06
Iowa 061,123 064,665 064,643 065,798 070,397 070,585 070,585 070,585 070,169 non: 15-02
Kentucky 065,462 063,480 064,155 064,922 062,334 062,450 057,330 068,824 069,434 non: 14-06
Arkansas 050,779 060,705 060,752 063,588 066,418 063,678 069,328 066,033 066,784 non: 27-01
Virginia Tech 056,272 053,662 063,344 065,115 065,115 065,115 066,233 066,233 066,233 non: 24-01
Missouri 053,600 052,556 052,723 055,833 059,571 053,364 055,918 060,232 064,520 non: 19-04
BYU 060,619 058,950 062,176 061,501 058,475 058,204 060,524 064,497 064,102 BCS: 15-20
Arizona St 050,612 049,285 045,837 054,248 062,641 061,157 054,562 062,875 063,837 non: 16-04
Washington 071,638 072,469 071,435 071,906 064,737 058,920 057,483 067,732 063,640 non: 14-08
Illinois 055,976 054,949 055,199 050,961 048,626 047,852 043,445 054,872 061,707 non: 12-05
California 046,100 033,443 037,103 038,305 064,019 060,377 064,318 063,136 061,634 non: 13-06
Oregon 045,093 045,926 056,341 057,701 058,059 058,434 058,378 058,845 058,444 non: 19-04
West Virginia 051,993 048,323 052,413 052,205 056,545 056,287 058,773 060,400 058,085 non: 21-04
N Carolina 050,500 052,583 050,292 047,133 052,458 051,667 048,857 057,417 057,829 non: 08-06
Purdue 065,319 062,584 056,430 058,597 063,549 062,996 055,457 059,326 056,702 non: 18-03
NC State 046,787 049,254 049,477 053,274 056,200 052,925 056,540 056,356 056,665 non: 13-05
Virginia 056,271 056,283 056,428 060,424 061,494 060,973 057,732 059,824 053,815 non: 12-08
Texas Tech 042,215 046,268 043,126 049,608 052,823 050,972 050,874 048,348 053,625 non: 27-05
Mississippi 048,046 045,740 057,217 056,509 058,373 054,225 053,801 049,704 053,005 non: 24-04
Arizona 049,439 044,383 045,005 042,765 050,111 053,613 055,798 052,161 052,440 non: 19-06
Kansas 032,217 039,493 036,083 038,750 041,067 043,675 044,137 046,784 050,907 non: 21-05
S Florida 000,000 025,817 026,304 030,512 027,060 038,865 030,222 053,170 049,690 non: 10-00
Colorado 049,990 047,475 049,219 050,423 047,895 050,409 046,048 050,509 049,476 non: 17-07
Pittsburgh 040,868 048,915 044,424 059,197 041,600 040,272 043,305 033,315 049,352 non: 20-06
Minnesota 047,352 043,485 041,785 044,148 047,573 049,025 052,207 051,791 048,958 non: 26-04
Oklahoma St 039,813 040,360 043,238 044,872 046,805 044,861 040,954 040,024 048,261 non: 20-07
Maryland 034,129 043,564 046,251 051,236 051,411 052,426 049,393 051,263 047,954 non: 14-03
Georgia Tech 042,671 041,685 043,156 052,862 046,817 051,607 050,617 050,280 047,489 non: 11-04
Iowa St 042,020 045,172 043,961 044,822 041,518 046,705 046,171 049,462 047,429 non: 15-08
Miami (FL) 058,430 047,162 069,539 058,135 059,134 045,310 041,908 043,589 046,299 non: 16-01
Utah 039,121 034,458 035,429 041,478 044,112 041,536 043,279 042,593 045,542 BCS: 18-11
Kansas St 050,260 048,541 048,082 047,110 048,405 045,961 046,693 047,383 045,190 non: 20-04
Oregon St 033,649 036,412 036,436 036,142 036,334 042,190 040,830 041,374 044,931 non: 19-06
Mississippi St 042,958 042,351 048,291 047,667 043,792 047,688 041,527 049,296 043,453 non: 17-08
Rutgers 024,556 020,455 019,818 027,339 030,994 033,184 041,113 043,663 042,378 non: 21-08
E Carolina 036,290 037,337 029,629 033,012 030,684 033,046 037,168 041,537 042,016 BCS: 14-29
Boston Coll 039,327 042,481 039,587 042,604 043,190 039,429 038,843 041,990 041,037 non: 27-02
Hawaii 037,340 036,245 038,759 041,308 036,801 032,735 036,589 043,514 040,338 BCS: 09-18
Louisville 038,547 037,682 036,473 036,771 040,531 041,001 041,482 039,881 039,680 non: 06-02
UCF 027,277 019,793 017,268 020,225 019,952 028,462 031,569 044,018 039,596 BCS: 02-33
UConn 014,166 014,536 015,807 037,059 039,304 040,000 038,939 038,205 039,331 non: 11-01
Vanderbilt 038,744 033,990 032,192 028,282 028,472 036,031 034,861 034,629 038,460 non: 08-09
Air Force 042,560 038,439 042,713 039,210 038,043 035,981 038,034 038,068 038,134 BCS: 08-09
Fresno St 041,369 042,803 037,800 038,603 039,777 039,307 038,551 036,291 037,864 BCS: 14-22
UTEP 044,715 028,360 028,310 020,009 041,209 047,899 042,444 036,569 037,296 BCS: 00-18
Navy 029,329 030,307 027,808 029,936 031,017 033,013 033,275 034,617 034,775 BCS: 16-43
Stanford 037,980 051,534 038,770 044,870 035,942 043,550 041,742 039,332 034,258 non: 10-07
Baylor 028,910 030,601 028,018 029,851 030,586 038,899 037,080 034,378 034,124 non: 12-08
Syracuse 043,062 041,103 042,259 041,167 037,068 040,252 037,263 035,009 033,474 non: 17-06
Boise St 026,493 023,831 027,533 028,098 030,499 030,048 030,453 030,338 032,275 BCS: 06-12
Cincinnati 022,235 023,055 028,071 021,827 021,255 022,423 020,373 030,246 031,965 non: 14-01
Indiana 030,560 032,605 031,248 034,983 028,377 039,536 033,063 037,972 031,782 non: 15-05
Wake Forest 023,600 023,092 026,537 028,273 030,763 028,924 032,515 032,595 031,666 non: 14-04
TCU 032,634 027,722 027,813 036,155 029,413 031,254 031,926 030,018 030,389 BCS: 17-08
S Miss 028,509 025,649 026,961 028,641 028,964 027,862 028,994 026,721 030,102 BCS: 07-24
New Mexico 023,656 031,268 030,512 035,124 037,282 038,341 028,633 029,673 029,713 BCS: 05-16
Duke 022,116 019,391 023,222 020,026 022,505 017,486 019,580 020,064 028,727 non: 05-09
Northwestern 034,267 034,743 028,032 028,763 028,408 032,527 027,996 024,589 028,590 non: 15-11
Army 038,516 031,048 032,606 030,794 031,963 030,935 030,694 031,712 027,752 BCS: 01-23
Wash St 026,642 028,309 038,131 036,128 038,430 034,506 034,671 033,045 027,367 non: 20-05
Memphis 031,676 025,722 029,257 040,622 041,175 039,991 032,440 029,670 025,003 BCS: 02-24
Marshall 027,884 025,455 027,789 027,837 025,933 026,510 026,031 030,020 024,766 BCS: 04-19
Tulsa 020,805 019,509 018,986 022,132 016,906 022,826 021,364 024,539 024,639 BCS: 01-19
San Diego St 023,449 022,518 025,263 022,626 035,995 036,223 029,227 027,940 024,376 BCS: 01-28
Tulane 020,845 023,198 027,901 025,635 022,829 000,000 018,942 026,112 022,750 BCS: 03-14
C Michigan 018,990 015,861 017,311 013,683 015,043 015,971 021,563 018,771 022,659 BCS: 02-23
LA-Lafayette 014,624 013,323 015,056 013,995 021,401 017,591 014,516 016,029 021,468 BCS: 01-26
Arkansas St 011,514 011,615 013,955 017,488 015,327 015,476 017,882 017,040 021,105 BCS: 01-28
Colorado St 027,532 027,563 030,461 030,631 027,296 029,347 024,183 021,794 021,008 BCS: 08-15
San Jose St 012,103 010,207 010,360 015,080 006,479 012,506 018,854 015,465 020,952 BCS: 05-26
UNLV 020,698 024,503 027,582 025,805 021,870 019,914 019,240 029,281 020,849 BCS: 06-16
Middle TN St 012,165 017,857 011,163 011,021 013,388 015,241 019,347 018,530 020,227 BCS: 05-30
Rice 019,181 016,923 020,069 020,512 012,550 010,072 019,822 013,353 020,179 BCS: 01-25
SMU 021,815 017,386 018,292 017,435 017,706 018,630 015,428 015,211 019,780 BCS: 01-20
W Michigan 025,043 022,396 018,877 018,838 015,997 018,906 018,625 019,494 019,683 BCS: 05-23
Troy 000,000 016,966 013,403 021,091 021,228 019,425 020,810 020,479 019,231 BCS: 03-26
Ball St 014,653 016,481 012,849 014,710 014,300 012,953 015,061 013,085 019,201 BCS: 01-27
UAB 018,500 018,536 016,447 022,704 020,606 020,101 023,139 016,706 019,062 BCS: 04-25
Nevada 017,017 017,573 018,842 022,258 017,314 015,076 016,728 017,087 019,043 BCS: 02-16
E Michigan 010,027 013,276 010,777 011,260 014,387 005,219 015,787 006,810 018,951 BCS: 00-21
Houston 015,795 019,457 014,986 021,807 021,167 015,054 021,910 020,955 018,356 BCS: 07-20
Wyoming 014,822 016,955 013,687 015,702 016,413 020,650 019,109 022,190 018,234 BCS: 05-16
N Illinois 015,757 014,604 020,953 023,575 027,052 022,176 020,771 017,864 018,185 BCS: 05-19
LA Tech 016,636 020,433 018,477 020,778 017,548 016,416 014,586 018,562 018,020 BCS: 04-32
New Mex St 015,826 017,096 022,163 016,069 018,301 012,557 017,596 014,412 017,756 BCS: 01-19
Toledo 026,884 030,014 023,965 021,920 024,025 021,817 020,311 018,668 017,008 BCS: 10-16
North Texas 014,180 013,248 015,260 018,694 015,184 016,446 015,650 016,356 016,956 BCS: 02-28
Buffalo 009,765 012,251 011,244 009,414 012,185 008,914 016,417 013,568 016,924 BCS: 01-23
Western KY 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 016,697 BCS: 00-06
Florida Atl 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 011,476 009,182 015,741 015,962 BCS: 01-17
Bowl Green 008,464 017,772 017,836 021,002 017,423 014,929 016,834 016,080 015,701 BCS: 10-15
Temple 018,612 018,440 019,077 024,137 016,456 012,735 015,810 028,859 015,582 BCS: 00-16
Miami (OH) 016,160 019,168 018,285 025,132 015,742 015,241 015,244 016,186 015,435 BCS: 07-23
Idaho 016,853 012,513 010,931 012,064 010,540 015,175 014,543 011,479 015,340 BCS: 02-25
Ohio 020,231 020,897 018,078 015,824 015,979 018,033 016,724 016,500 015,276 BCS: 04-23
Utah St 019,910 021,784 020,992 014,921 019,500 010,896 011,360 013,131 014,736 BCS: 00-20
Akron 010,637 013,479 011,600 013,812 015,849 010,893 016,132 019,021 014,342 BCS: 04-21
Florida Intl 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 000,000 015,477 014,201 008,544 013,852 BCS: 00-16
LA-Monroe 009,826 007,664 008,470 011,298 014,717 014,617 014,036 016,651 012,414 BCS: 01-30
Kent 007,638 007,195 010,086 010,546 012,877 006,658 017,004 008,999 010,609 BCS: 01-18

Sources:
The NCAA's First Century: In The Arena, by Joseph N. Crowley
"The College Football Association television broadcast cartel", by John J. Siegfried and Molly Gardner Burba

3 comments:

PeteP said...

You forgot to add that the current members of the MWC were all members of the CFA from its founding, as well as a number of CUSA schools and Hawaii. The were "major, top-tier" programs.

The major problem came about when the Bowl Coalition left the old WAC out of the picture -- causing much of the problems with non-AQ programs today.

Of course, the Bowl Coalition was created by Roy Kramer largely because the SEC had not had a legit national title contender for a decade and independents had dominated the AP and UPI national titles (except for OU's) for most of the 80s. BYU and the old WAC were intentionally left out.

Ed Gunther said...

Good add, Pete - thanks.

PeteP said...

Love the site, BTW. Really good stuff.