Power Rankings: Week 8
In December of last year, I posted a new analysis of offense and defensive ability, the premise being that instead of using statistics about yards gained/allowed or points scored/allowed, a more telling statistic is the percentage of yards gained/allowed or points scored/allowed compared to your opponent's average. I've tinkered around with the idea a bit more and the final product is what I'll now call my power rankings. I'll clarify a few things and then get to the ubiquitous table.
There were a few notes and comments about that analysis eventually including strength of schedule, but I don't think I explained it well enough - SoS is already included in the analysis. Let me show you how:
You've got two teams, Team A & Team B, with identical yearly statistics. In every single game they played, they gained 350 yards and scored 24 points. In their first six games, they lost, allowing 400 yards and 37 points, while in their final six games they won, allowing 300 yards and 21 points, giving both of them a 6-6 record on the year. As far as YPG, PPG, dYPG (defensive Yards Per Game), dPPG, and W-L record, they are identical. The only difference between them is the opponents they played:
| Team A Opponents | Team B Opponents |
|---|---|
| Oklahoma (12-1) | Idaho (2-10) |
| Virginia Tech (9-4) | North Texas (1-11) |
| Ohio State (10-2) | Washington (0-12) |
| Texas (11-1) | Washington State (2-11) |
| Oregon (9-3) | Mississippi State (4-8) |
| Florida (12-1) | Toledo (3-9) |
| Georgia (9-3) | Western Kentucky (2-10) |
| USC (11-1) | SMU (1-11) |
| Penn State (11-1) | Iowa State (2-10) |
| Texas Tech (11-1) | Syracuse (3-9) |
| Utah (12-0) | Miami OH (2-10) |
| Boise State (12-0) | San Diego State (2-10) |
Just by looking at the lists, anybody can tell that Team A played the hardest schedule imaginable while Team B played the easiest. And since they scored the same points, gained the same yards, and allowed the same defensive stats, Team A was obviously "better" since they played tougher teams.
But can we back up that assertion with hard data? Can we absolutely prove that Team A has more ability? This power analysis does just that. Here's the numbers: (remember, the higher the offensive percentage the better, and the lower the defensive percentage the better.)
| Team A | |||||||||||||||
| Opponent | Yds | Opp dYPG avg | oYds% | Pts | Opp dPPG avg | oPts% | opp Yds | opp YPG avg | dYds% | opp Pts | opp PPG avg | dPts% | Off. Avg | Def. Avg | Total Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 350 | 359.1 | 97% | 24 | 24.5 | 98% | 400 | 562.1 | 71% | 37 | 54.0 | 69% | 98% | 70% | 28% |
| VA Tech | 350 | 277.1 | 126% | 24 | 17.5 | 137% | 400 | 296.2 | 135% | 37 | 22.2 | 166% | 132% | 151% | -19% |
| Ohio St | 350 | 279.3 | 125% | 24 | 13.1 | 183% | 400 | 339.7 | 118% | 37 | 28.2 | 131% | 154% | 125% | 30% |
| Texas | 350 | 339.9 | 103% | 24 | 18.6 | 129% | 400 | 476.4 | 84% | 37 | 43.9 | 84% | 116% | 84% | 32% |
| Oregon | 350 | 383.0 | 91% | 24 | 28.0 | 86% | 400 | 478.2 | 84% | 37 | 41.9 | 88% | 89% | 86% | 3% |
| Florida | 350 | 279.3 | 125% | 24 | 12.8 | 187% | 400 | 442.4 | 90% | 37 | 45.2 | 82% | 156% | 86% | 70% |
| Georgia | 350 | 318.3 | 110% | 24 | 25.6 | 94% | 300 | 433.9 | 69% | 21 | 32.1 | 65% | 102% | 67% | 35% |
| USC | 350 | 206.1 | 170% | 24 | 7.8 | 310% | 300 | 453.1 | 66% | 21 | 37.5 | 56% | 240% | 61% | 179% |
| Penn St | 350 | 263.9 | 133% | 24 | 12.4 | 193% | 300 | 452.2 | 66% | 21 | 40.2 | 52% | 163% | 59% | 104% |
| TX Tech | 350 | 371.6 | 94% | 24 | 26.3 | 91% | 300 | 536.2 | 56% | 21 | 44.6 | 47% | 93% | 52% | 41% |
| Utah | 350 | 295.9 | 118% | 24 | 17.3 | 139% | 300 | 405.3 | 74% | 21 | 37.4 | 56% | 129% | 65% | 64% |
| Boise St | 350 | 294.5 | 119% | 24 | 12.3 | 196% | 300 | 456.8 | 66% | 21 | 39.4 | 53% | 157% | 59% | 98% |
| Total | 350 | 305.7 | 118% | 24 | 18.0 | 154% | 350 | 444.3 | 82% | 29 | 38.9 | 79% | 136% | 80% | 56% |
Like Team B, Team A gained 350 yards and scored 24 points per game. But their opponents usually only allowed an average of 305 yards and 18 points per game. That means that Team A gained 118% of the yards and 154% of the points their opponents usually allowed. On the defensive side, while they allowed an average of 350 yards and 29 points per game, their opponents usually gained 444 yards and scored 39 points per game. That means Team A held them to 82% of their usual yards and 79% of their usual points. Overall, Team A gained 136% of the offense their opponents usually allowed and only allowed 80% of the offense their opponents usually gained, a difference of 56%. (100% is average for each individual offense or defensive category, & 0% is average for the total of the two, so even with a 6-6 record that's stellar.)
| Team B | |||||||||||||||
| Opponent | Yds | Opp dYPG avg | oYds% | Pts | Opp dPPG avg | oPts% | opp Yds | opp YPG avg | dYds% | opp Pts | opp PPG avg | dPts% | Off. Avg | Def. Avg | Total Power |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Idaho | 350 | 472.0 | 74% | 24 | 42.8 | 56% | 400 | 320.9 | 125% | 37 | 19.6 | 189% | 65% | 157% | -92% |
| N Texas | 350 | 482.6 | 73% | 24 | 47.6 | 50% | 400 | 363.0 | 110% | 37 | 20.0 | 185% | 61% | 148% | -86% |
| Washington | 350 | 451.8 | 77% | 24 | 38.6 | 62% | 400 | 263.2 | 152% | 37 | 13.3 | 279% | 70% | 216% | -146% |
| Wash. St | 350 | 443.4 | 79% | 24 | 43.8 | 55% | 400 | 241.1 | 166% | 37 | 12.7 | 292% | 67% | 229% | -162% |
| Miss. St | 350 | 327.5 | 107% | 24 | 24.7 | 97% | 400 | 274.9 | 145% | 37 | 15.3 | 243% | 102% | 194% | -92% |
| Toledo | 350 | 381.4 | 92% | 24 | 31.4 | 76% | 400 | 334.1 | 120% | 37 | 22.4 | 165% | 84% | 142% | -58% |
| W Kentcky | 350 | 375.3 | 93% | 24 | 27.2 | 88% | 300 | 286.1 | 105% | 21 | 17.5 | 120% | 91% | 112% | -22% |
| SMU | 350 | 479.5 | 73% | 24 | 38.2 | 63% | 300 | 314.3 | 95% | 21 | 21.3 | 98% | 68% | 97% | -29% |
| Iowa St | 350 | 452.8 | 77% | 24 | 35.8 | 67% | 300 | 386.8 | 78% | 21 | 25.3 | 83% | 72% | 80% | -8% |
| Syracuse | 350 | 414.5 | 84% | 24 | 32.7 | 73% | 300 | 270.2 | 111% | 21 | 18.1 | 116% | 79% | 114% | -35% |
| Miami (OH) | 350 | 395.5 | 88% | 24 | 32.7 | 73% | 300 | 326.0 | 92% | 21 | 18.4 | 114% | 81% | 103% | -22% |
| San D. St | 350 | 460.8 | 76% | 24 | 37.2 | 65% | 300 | 312.4 | 96% | 21 | 19.3 | 109% | 70% | 103% | -32% |
| Total | 350 | 428.1 | 83% | 24 | 36.0 | 69% | 350 | 307.7 | 116% | 29 | 18.6 | 166% | 76% | 141% | -65% |
Like Team A, Team B gained 350 yards and scored 24 points per game. But their opponents usually only allowed an average of 428 yards and 36 points per game. That means that Team B only gained 83% of the yards and 69% of the points their opponents usually allowed. On the defensive side, while they allowed an average of 350 yards and 29 points per game, their opponents usually gained 307 yards and scored 18 points per game. That means Team B allowed 116% of their opponents usual yards and 166% of their usual points. Overall, Team B gained just 76% of the offense their opponents usually allowed and allowed 141% of the offense their opponents usually gained, a difference of -65%. (So even with a 6-6 record that's pretty poor.)
So that's how SoS is automatically factored into this type of analysis. Granted, these two schedules are extreme, but the huge statistical difference between Team A's +55% and Team B's -65% shows how precise this analysis can be at determining offensive and defensive power. Of course, as usual (and as my Texas Tech prediction of last week proved), this analysis isn't forward looking - it only measures what a team has achieved, not what they're going to do.
And as I mentioned last year, these aren't power rankings in a sense of who's had the best season or who's achieved the most. That's why 4-3 Oklahoma & 4-3 Nebraska are sitting at #8 & #10 respectively. It's a measure of a team's offensive and defensive abilities, and is best understood when taken in conjunction with rankings and win-loss records. Those Big12 teams have won less games than their ability suggests they should have. Conversely, at 4-4 but ranked #109 here, Kent State has won more games than their ability suggests they should have.
Another way to use these statistics is to illuminate the ypp & ppg stats. For instance, while Oregon State ranks #34 in points per game with 29.2, they've faced much sturdier defenses than a lot of other top teams - that's why they're ranked #5 in PPG% at 159%. While Army is giving up just 287.4 yards per game, ranked #11, it's been against easier offensive competition - they're ranked #29 in dYPG% at 89%.
As a final note, one of the main changes I made to the number crunching was that I eliminated all games against I-AA opponents. Stats against those teams don't count toward any of a team's totals, mainly because they skewed things too much. By deleting them, we get a lot more iteration and better focus on just I-A teams.
Some interesting things to note...
• Washington State is the only BCS team in the Bottom 20, while Boise State, TCU, and Fresno State are the only non-BCS teams in the Top 20.
• Of all the undefeated or one-loss teams, Houston's defense is the worst by far, giving up 132% of what their opponents usually gain. By that same token, LSU's offense is the worst, gaining just 87% of what their opponents usually give up.
• There are two teams who's overall offense is in the Top 20 and overall defense is in the Bottom 20 - Florida State and Houston. There's one team who's overall offense is in the Bottom 20 and overall defense is in the Top 20 - North Carolina.
• There are four teams in the Bottom 20 in every single category - Western Kentucky, Washington State, New Mexico, and Rice. There's only one team in the Top 20 in every single category - Boise State.
The column headers are sortable & pretty self-explanatory. Total is the difference between offense and defense, blue is Top 20, red is Bottom 20.
| Offense vs Defense | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Conf | Team | YPG | YPG% | PPG | PPG% | dYPG | dYPG% | dPPG | dPPG% | Offense | Defense | Total |
| 7 | 0 | Big12 | Texas | 438.1 | 119% | 41.9 | 178% | 235.6 | 60% | 13.6 | 50% | 149% | 55% | 94% |
| 7 | 0 | SEC | Florida | 429.2 | 127% | 30.8 | 142% | 214.0 | 55% | 11.3 | 39% | 134% | 47% | 87% |
| 7 | 0 | WAC | Boise St | 444.3 | 125% | 41.5 | 168% | 291.0 | 71% | 14.3 | 49% | 146% | 60% | 86% |
| 5 | 2 | ACC | Virginia Tech | 380.0 | 114% | 32.6 | 194% | 318.0 | 83% | 19.1 | 65% | 154% | 74% | 80% |
| 8 | 0 | SEC | Alabama | 410.1 | 118% | 31.8 | 140% | 242.4 | 63% | 11.4 | 39% | 129% | 51% | 78% |
| 7 | 0 | MtnWest | TCU | 415.0 | 128% | 30.8 | 136% | 246.2 | 67% | 11.3 | 45% | 132% | 56% | 76% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Texas Tech | 494.7 | 144% | 40.3 | 203% | 390.7 | 100% | 25.3 | 97% | 174% | 98% | 75% |
| 4 | 3 | Big12 | Oklahoma | 394.8 | 121% | 26.5 | 125% | 301.7 | 72% | 11.8 | 36% | 123% | 54% | 69% |
| 7 | 0 | BigEast | Cincinnati | 440.2 | 125% | 35.8 | 153% | 341.2 | 94% | 15.5 | 67% | 139% | 80% | 58% |
| 4 | 3 | Big12 | Nebraska | 381.4 | 100% | 28.7 | 110% | 265.0 | 67% | 11.4 | 37% | 105% | 52% | 53% |
| 8 | 0 | Big10 | Iowa | 343.9 | 101% | 24.6 | 132% | 287.9 | 74% | 14.6 | 56% | 117% | 65% | 52% |
| 6 | 1 | Pac10 | Oregon | 368.1 | 96% | 34.0 | 144% | 297.1 | 77% | 16.7 | 61% | 120% | 69% | 51% |
| 6 | 1 | Pac10 | USC | 440.4 | 109% | 31.4 | 122% | 291.1 | 77% | 15.1 | 55% | 116% | 66% | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | Big10 | Penn St | 410.3 | 115% | 27.1 | 114% | 245.1 | 77% | 9.7 | 53% | 115% | 65% | 50% |
| 5 | 2 | ACC | Miami (FL) | 380.2 | 115% | 27.2 | 152% | 330.3 | 86% | 24.8 | 84% | 134% | 85% | 49% |
| 3 | 4 | SEC | Tennessee | 385.3 | 114% | 28.9 | 121% | 269.7 | 73% | 18.4 | 68% | 118% | 70% | 48% |
| 6 | 2 | Big10 | Ohio St | 353.3 | 95% | 29.3 | 116% | 284.8 | 74% | 13.1 | 46% | 105% | 60% | 45% |
| 7 | 1 | ACC | Georgia Tech | 410.0 | 127% | 32.0 | 155% | 364.6 | 102% | 24.9 | 93% | 141% | 97% | 44% |
| 4 | 3 | Pac10 | Oregon St | 395.5 | 120% | 29.2 | 159% | 386.0 | 94% | 28.8 | 98% | 139% | 96% | 43% |
| 4 | 3 | WAC | Fresno St | 444.3 | 130% | 33.7 | 156% | 374.7 | 106% | 25.7 | 98% | 143% | 102% | 41% |
| 4 | 3 | ACC | Clemson | 339.3 | 101% | 28.3 | 124% | 293.4 | 75% | 18.4 | 71% | 113% | 73% | 40% |
| 5 | 2 | Pac10 | Arizona | 426.5 | 122% | 29.3 | 138% | 329.7 | 86% | 25.3 | 97% | 130% | 92% | 38% |
| 5 | 2 | Big12 | Kansas | 463.0 | 127% | 32.8 | 153% | 361.3 | 100% | 26.0 | 108% | 140% | 104% | 36% |
| 6 | 1 | BigEast | West Virginia | 418.2 | 118% | 31.0 | 134% | 327.2 | 95% | 21.5 | 85% | 126% | 90% | 36% |
| 7 | 1 | BigEast | Pittsburgh | 400.7 | 114% | 33.7 | 143% | 336.0 | 95% | 20.1 | 92% | 129% | 93% | 35% |
| 5 | 3 | SEC | Auburn | 431.4 | 129% | 31.8 | 146% | 368.8 | 104% | 26.9 | 106% | 138% | 105% | 32% |
| 6 | 2 | MtnWest | BYU | 447.4 | 124% | 34.6 | 125% | 348.1 | 91% | 24.6 | 95% | 124% | 93% | 31% |
| 5 | 2 | SEC | Mississippi | 376.7 | 102% | 26.5 | 100% | 302.2 | 82% | 14.8 | 62% | 101% | 72% | 29% |
| 5 | 2 | Indy | Notre Dame | 438.4 | 122% | 30.0 | 130% | 409.4 | 107% | 24.1 | 90% | 126% | 98% | 28% |
| 3 | 4 | SEC | Arkansas | 386.7 | 130% | 29.3 | 147% | 455.7 | 118% | 30.3 | 108% | 139% | 113% | 26% |
| 3 | 5 | SEC | MissSt | 365.6 | 108% | 23.7 | 126% | 380.7 | 92% | 27.1 | 93% | 117% | 92% | 25% |
| 5 | 2 | Big10 | Wisconsin | 389.2 | 115% | 25.7 | 126% | 337.2 | 93% | 26.7 | 102% | 120% | 97% | 23% |
| 6 | 2 | SEC | S Carolina | 364.9 | 106% | 20.9 | 88% | 283.6 | 77% | 18.0 | 71% | 97% | 74% | 23% |
| 6 | 1 | MtnWest | Utah | 397.4 | 100% | 27.9 | 107% | 308.3 | 88% | 17.7 | 75% | 104% | 82% | 22% |
| 7 | 1 | MAC | C Michigan | 412.6 | 110% | 31.0 | 111% | 358.3 | 98% | 17.3 | 80% | 111% | 89% | 22% |
| 3 | 4 | ACC | Virginia | 292.7 | 85% | 23.3 | 108% | 316.8 | 85% | 20.0 | 69% | 96% | 77% | 19% |
| 3 | 5 | Big10 | Purdue | 401.0 | 113% | 27.6 | 133% | 360.9 | 99% | 26.9 | 111% | 123% | 105% | 17% |
| 4 | 3 | SEC | Kentucky | 337.3 | 105% | 26.1 | 116% | 352.3 | 92% | 23.0 | 95% | 111% | 93% | 17% |
| 4 | 4 | Big10 | Michigan St | 390.7 | 110% | 24.9 | 111% | 351.4 | 91% | 23.3 | 96% | 111% | 94% | 17% |
| 6 | 1 | SEC | LSU | 306.6 | 83% | 24.1 | 90% | 304.0 | 84% | 13.9 | 57% | 87% | 70% | 16% |
| 4 | 4 | MtnWest | Air Force | 309.3 | 89% | 18.9 | 84% | 283.3 | 81% | 15.1 | 60% | 87% | 71% | 16% |
| 5 | 3 | Pac10 | Stanford | 435.3 | 120% | 31.9 | 118% | 369.3 | 108% | 22.4 | 99% | 119% | 103% | 16% |
| 6 | 2 | Indy | Navy | 363.6 | 95% | 30.1 | 120% | 316.1 | 94% | 20.8 | 90% | 107% | 92% | 15% |
| 3 | 4 | ACC | Florida St | 432.3 | 133% | 31.7 | 151% | 430.3 | 124% | 31.2 | 130% | 142% | 127% | 15% |
| 6 | 1 | Big12 | Oklahoma St | 389.3 | 94% | 33.8 | 115% | 367.5 | 96% | 22.3 | 88% | 104% | 92% | 12% |
| 4 | 3 | Big12 | Missouri | 346.3 | 97% | 21.8 | 92% | 337.2 | 82% | 25.2 | 84% | 94% | 83% | 12% |
| 5 | 3 | Big10 | Michigan | 358.4 | 100% | 29.7 | 138% | 389.0 | 107% | 26.0 | 109% | 119% | 108% | 11% |
| 3 | 5 | Pac10 | Washington | 365.1 | 112% | 24.6 | 122% | 423.5 | 109% | 29.8 | 104% | 117% | 106% | 11% |
| 6 | 1 | CUSA | Houston | 536.3 | 143% | 38.0 | 143% | 470.5 | 134% | 29.3 | 131% | 143% | 132% | 10% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Iowa St | 377.1 | 113% | 22.9 | 103% | 385.0 | 113% | 20.1 | 83% | 108% | 98% | 10% |
| 4 | 3 | SEC | Georgia | 334.9 | 99% | 27.0 | 144% | 365.4 | 106% | 27.7 | 118% | 122% | 112% | 10% |
| 4 | 3 | WAC | Nevada | 505.6 | 132% | 35.1 | 129% | 413.4 | 111% | 31.4 | 131% | 131% | 121% | 10% |
| 6 | 2 | CUSA | Sou. Miss | 374.0 | 98% | 30.3 | 120% | 334.0 | 96% | 23.3 | 108% | 109% | 102% | 7% |
| 5 | 2 | BigEast | Rutgers | 310.2 | 85% | 23.2 | 95% | 344.0 | 95% | 21.8 | 77% | 90% | 86% | 4% |
| 4 | 3 | BigEast | Connecticut | 374.8 | 106% | 24.3 | 100% | 352.3 | 102% | 21.2 | 96% | 103% | 99% | 4% |
| 4 | 3 | ACC | Duke | 379.6 | 112% | 28.6 | 117% | 387.0 | 110% | 27.6 | 112% | 114% | 111% | 3% |
| 3 | 4 | Pac10 | UCLA | 296.1 | 83% | 20.0 | 84% | 339.7 | 86% | 22.6 | 74% | 83% | 80% | 3% |
| 5 | 2 | Pac10 | California | 417.0 | 116% | 31.2 | 125% | 407.0 | 129% | 24.8 | 106% | 120% | 118% | 3% |
| 5 | 2 | MAC | Temple | 289.8 | 80% | 26.3 | 94% | 313.0 | 88% | 18.7 | 82% | 87% | 85% | 2% |
| 4 | 3 | Big12 | Texas A&M | 489.0 | 122% | 35.9 | 134% | 411.6 | 110% | 32.9 | 143% | 128% | 126% | 2% |
| 5 | 3 | ACC | Boston Coll | 313.1 | 81% | 25.4 | 99% | 360.9 | 96% | 23.6 | 86% | 90% | 91% | -1% |
| 5 | 2 | SunBelt | Troy | 459.7 | 119% | 28.6 | 100% | 384.9 | 102% | 27.7 | 120% | 109% | 111% | -2% |
| 5 | 2 | BigEast | S Florida | 350.0 | 87% | 23.4 | 86% | 360.6 | 98% | 23.0 | 81% | 87% | 89% | -2% |
| 3 | 5 | MAC | Bowl Green | 404.1 | 114% | 23.6 | 104% | 388.4 | 110% | 28.4 | 116% | 109% | 113% | -4% |
| 4 | 3 | Pac10 | Arizona St | 352.0 | 85% | 22.8 | 72% | 320.5 | 85% | 21.0 | 81% | 79% | 83% | -4% |
| 4 | 3 | ACC | N Carolina | 272.4 | 71% | 16.0 | 64% | 308.2 | 81% | 19.4 | 66% | 68% | 74% | -6% |
| 4 | 3 | CUSA | UCF | 334.8 | 85% | 24.0 | 74% | 344.3 | 98% | 18.3 | 76% | 80% | 87% | -7% |
| 4 | 3 | MAC | N Illinois | 335.5 | 86% | 27.2 | 89% | 370.0 | 94% | 21.3 | 98% | 87% | 96% | -8% |
| 2 | 4 | SunBelt | Arkansas St | 313.6 | 86% | 18.8 | 86% | 383.6 | 103% | 23.6 | 89% | 86% | 96% | -10% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Kansas St | 332.8 | 84% | 24.0 | 90% | 383.5 | 102% | 24.8 | 91% | 87% | 97% | -10% |
| 3 | 4 | WAC | LA Tech | 321.7 | 81% | 22.3 | 76% | 374.7 | 92% | 23.7 | 86% | 79% | 89% | -10% |
| 2 | 5 | Big12 | Colorado | 301.9 | 82% | 22.4 | 90% | 379.0 | 95% | 28.6 | 98% | 86% | 97% | -11% |
| 4 | 3 | CUSA | Tulsa | 379.3 | 96% | 25.5 | 84% | 348.3 | 100% | 22.3 | 105% | 90% | 102% | -12% |
| 4 | 4 | Big10 | Minnesota | 292.8 | 89% | 21.1 | 93% | 407.5 | 112% | 25.1 | 97% | 91% | 105% | -14% |
| 3 | 5 | MAC | Buffalo | 397.0 | 110% | 20.7 | 87% | 372.6 | 110% | 28.9 | 115% | 98% | 112% | -14% |
| 3 | 5 | MtnWest | Colorado St | 355.6 | 101% | 23.0 | 88% | 419.1 | 108% | 31.4 | 111% | 94% | 110% | -15% |
| 2 | 5 | WAC | Utah St | 396.5 | 107% | 22.7 | 84% | 420.5 | 104% | 30.7 | 119% | 96% | 112% | -16% |
| 5 | 3 | MAC | Ohio | 298.9 | 82% | 24.6 | 90% | 356.6 | 105% | 22.6 | 100% | 86% | 102% | -16% |
| 4 | 4 | ACC | Wake Forest | 373.7 | 105% | 22.0 | 82% | 374.7 | 111% | 25.0 | 113% | 94% | 112% | -18% |
| 1 | 6 | BigEast | Louisville | 352.5 | 106% | 18.2 | 87% | 420.8 | 111% | 33.3 | 118% | 97% | 115% | -18% |
| 3 | 4 | CUSA | SMU | 372.0 | 94% | 25.7 | 111% | 382.0 | 102% | 33.2 | 140% | 103% | 121% | -18% |
| 4 | 3 | SunBelt | Mid Tenn St | 411.0 | 103% | 27.0 | 81% | 362.0 | 101% | 26.4 | 120% | 92% | 111% | -19% |
| 6 | 2 | WAC | Idaho | 429.5 | 106% | 31.5 | 108% | 401.6 | 118% | 30.8 | 137% | 107% | 127% | -20% |
| 3 | 4 | BigEast | Syracuse | 305.5 | 87% | 20.8 | 89% | 342.2 | 98% | 27.8 | 122% | 88% | 110% | -22% |
| 4 | 3 | SunBelt | LA-Monroe | 358.7 | 98% | 23.0 | 93% | 397.0 | 108% | 33.8 | 129% | 95% | 119% | -23% |
| 3 | 4 | ACC | NC State | 354.4 | 103% | 22.6 | 103% | 385.8 | 111% | 33.8 | 144% | 103% | 128% | -25% |
| 3 | 4 | MtnWest | San Diego St | 336.8 | 93% | 25.3 | 98% | 355.7 | 103% | 29.3 | 138% | 96% | 121% | -25% |
| 5 | 3 | CUSA | Marshall | 321.6 | 81% | 19.4 | 63% | 397.7 | 113% | 20.0 | 83% | 72% | 98% | -25% |
| 5 | 3 | Big10 | Northwestern | 379.4 | 103% | 24.4 | 86% | 357.1 | 113% | 25.0 | 129% | 95% | 121% | -26% |
| 4 | 3 | CUSA | E Carolina | 332.3 | 88% | 24.5 | 92% | 369.7 | 117% | 23.0 | 118% | 90% | 117% | -27% |
| 4 | 3 | MtnWest | Wyoming | 311.0 | 83% | 17.8 | 55% | 366.3 | 102% | 23.8 | 91% | 69% | 97% | -28% |
| 3 | 4 | Big12 | Baylor | 320.3 | 87% | 16.8 | 77% | 426.7 | 120% | 26.2 | 105% | 82% | 112% | -30% |
| 4 | 4 | MAC | W Michigan | 392.0 | 104% | 27.4 | 96% | 434.0 | 121% | 29.9 | 141% | 100% | 131% | -30% |
| 2 | 6 | ACC | Maryland | 319.1 | 89% | 19.3 | 82% | 373.4 | 103% | 31.1 | 131% | 86% | 117% | -31% |
| 4 | 4 | MAC | Toledo | 440.1 | 119% | 29.1 | 113% | 423.5 | 129% | 38.3 | 164% | 116% | 147% | -31% |
| 3 | 4 | CUSA | UTEP | 348.6 | 91% | 25.0 | 100% | 483.7 | 126% | 33.3 | 132% | 95% | 129% | -33% |
| 2 | 6 | SEC | Vanderbilt | 280.6 | 81% | 12.6 | 47% | 349.3 | 106% | 20.3 | 92% | 64% | 99% | -35% |
| 1 | 6 | Big10 | Illinois | 320.8 | 101% | 11.3 | 64% | 418.8 | 115% | 29.5 | 122% | 82% | 118% | -36% |
| 1 | 6 | SunBelt | North Texas | 403.6 | 108% | 25.4 | 92% | 434.3 | 113% | 37.6 | 161% | 100% | 137% | -37% |
| 4 | 4 | Big10 | Indiana | 354.4 | 94% | 24.3 | 97% | 394.3 | 127% | 28.4 | 139% | 96% | 133% | -37% |
| 3 | 5 | Indy | Army | 278.8 | 72% | 16.9 | 60% | 287.4 | 89% | 22.6 | 118% | 66% | 104% | -37% |
| 2 | 5 | WAC | Hawaii | 425.2 | 106% | 21.0 | 68% | 436.0 | 121% | 35.3 | 131% | 87% | 126% | -39% |
| 2 | 5 | CUSA | Memphis | 348.3 | 94% | 18.2 | 77% | 404.8 | 116% | 31.8 | 134% | 86% | 125% | -40% |
| 1 | 7 | MAC | Ball St | 344.6 | 94% | 21.7 | 76% | 400.3 | 111% | 31.0 | 139% | 85% | 125% | -40% |
| 2 | 4 | SunBelt | Florida Atl | 448.2 | 130% | 27.8 | 98% | 446.5 | 132% | 35.5 | 177% | 114% | 154% | -41% |
| 3 | 5 | MtnWest | UNLV | 369.9 | 96% | 25.7 | 89% | 463.3 | 118% | 37.1 | 156% | 93% | 137% | -44% |
| 2 | 5 | CUSA | UAB | 368.6 | 96% | 22.9 | 78% | 459.9 | 126% | 33.4 | 144% | 87% | 135% | -47% |
| 0 | 8 | MAC | Miami (OH) | 316.0 | 86% | 11.6 | 49% | 370.3 | 103% | 34.4 | 128% | 68% | 115% | -48% |
| 4 | 4 | MAC | Kent St | 318.9 | 81% | 21.1 | 75% | 376.1 | 118% | 24.4 | 135% | 78% | 126% | -49% |
| 1 | 6 | MAC | Akron | 254.0 | 71% | 14.5 | 66% | 389.3 | 108% | 30.8 | 130% | 68% | 119% | -51% |
| 1 | 5 | WAC | San Jose St | 265.4 | 72% | 16.0 | 65% | 485.6 | 117% | 38.4 | 129% | 69% | 123% | -54% |
| 2 | 5 | CUSA | Tulane | 310.8 | 84% | 10.8 | 43% | 396.7 | 101% | 37.5 | 145% | 63% | 123% | -60% |
| 1 | 6 | SunBelt | Florida Intl | 321.3 | 80% | 25.0 | 88% | 489.9 | 143% | 34.4 | 154% | 84% | 149% | -65% |
| 0 | 7 | MAC | E Michigan | 265.7 | 73% | 15.4 | 61% | 399.4 | 121% | 33.7 | 148% | 67% | 134% | -68% |
| 4 | 3 | SunBelt | LA-Lafayette | 313.7 | 78% | 19.5 | 55% | 419.3 | 119% | 34.7 | 151% | 66% | 135% | -69% |
| 1 | 6 | Pac10 | Wash St | 290.6 | 77% | 15.1 | 56% | 499.6 | 132% | 37.0 | 143% | 66% | 138% | -71% |
| 3 | 5 | WAC | New Mex St | 247.6 | 58% | 12.1 | 36% | 382.1 | 110% | 29.4 | 131% | 47% | 120% | -74% |
| 0 | 7 | MtnWest | New Mexico | 295.0 | 77% | 14.9 | 57% | 429.3 | 119% | 37.3 | 181% | 67% | 150% | -83% |
| 0 | 7 | SunBelt | W Kentucky | 290.0 | 76% | 18.0 | 66% | 526.2 | 160% | 44.2 | 200% | 71% | 180% | -109% |
| 0 | 8 | CUSA | Rice | 300.3 | 79% | 14.9 | 61% | 469.4 | 139% | 45.5 | 222% | 70% | 180% | -111% |
4 comments:
This is AWESOME. I love it. Perfect. Makes so much sense.
It reminds me of some of the stuff that Year2 has done over at teamspeedkills.com (and formerly at year2.wordpress.com) (here's a link so some of them)
This is what a power ranking should be based on. I'd love to see how good of a predictor this is between teams. Care to include some Power Ranking-based predictions for this week's games?
Very cool, nicely done. Will there be a link where we can check it out weekly like your other rankings?
Ah, Ed, you've done it again. This is exactly the type of ranking that I was chronically late coming up with and was going to use over at TAP. Great job!
Thanks, guys - I appreciate it. To answer some of the questions...
Yes, I'll be posting these power rankings weekly from now on (there's a link under the "2009 Season" heading on the left).
I'm trying to work up a reliable predictor system, Jams, and I think these power rankings are sturdy enough to have a place in that, but on their own they definitely have issues. For instance, I put a little teaser into my weekly predictions last week about Texas Tech being underrated, since their offense is better than most people think, but then they went a got hammered by a pretty lousy Texas A&M team. That's just one example, and it could be that that was one of those games where most predictors failed, but I haven't had the time to tinker with a system just yet.
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