Sunday, October 25, 2009

Rankings: Week 8

Not too many changes this week. We've got two 8-0 teams, but Iowa is way ahead of Alabama right now. Why? It's not because the computer isn't factoring in their close calls - my program does contain margin of victory. So let's take a look at what they've each done, going from their best win to worse.

Iowa: @ Penn St (187.15) 21-10, vs Arizona (123.43) 27-17, @ Wisconsin (94.55) 20-10, vs Michigan (58.61) 30-28
Bama: v VA Tech (137.01) 34-24, vs S Carolina (126.56) 20-6, @ Ole Miss (82.03) 22-3, @ Kentucky (50.05) 38-20

Iowa: @ Iowa St (58.32) 35-3, @ Michigan St (12.29) 15-13, vs Arkansas St (-60.96) 24-21, vs N Iowa (I-AA) 17-16
Bama: vs Arkansas (-10.03) 35-7, vs Tennessee (-22.69) 12-10, vs Fla Intl (-154.44) 40-14, vs N Texas (-154.88) 53-7

Iowa has the best win overall, Penn State over Virginia Tech. Things are pretty even for wins 2-4, but then Bama gets into their negative opponents while Iowa still has two wins at opponents in positive territory. Significant advantage Iowa. Overall, Iowa has four wins on the road while Alabama only has two (plus one neutral site win). Big advantage Iowa. Iowa has 1 win by more than 2 TD's, 3 wins by less than 2 TD's, and 4 wins by less than one TD: Alabama has 5 wins by more than 2 TD's, 2 wins by less than 2 TD's, and 1 win by less than one TD. Advantage Bama.

So that's where they're coming from. This'll cease to matter though, since Alabama is headed for a championship game and one more opportunity to gain points while Iowa doesn't have that option.

Florida retakes #3 from Cincinnati, then there's a big jumble for spots #4-7, all between 7-0 teams within 4 points of each other. Pitt takes over the "best one-loss team" designation from USC, barely, but the Trojans have played one less game than the Panthers. On the bottom this week are Western Kentucky, Rice, and Eastern Michigan, all winless.

Washington still leads the nation in SoS, it's average opponent coming in at well over 100 points earned.

Week 8 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 Big10 Iowa 312.33 8 0 100.0% 381.97 52 33 61.2% 0
2 SEC Alabama 279.54 8 0 100.0% 1.14 42 38 52.5% 0
3 SEC Florida 245.25 7 0 100.0% -199.19 40 42 48.8% 1
4 BigEast Cincinnati 236.38 7 0 100.0% -157.93 41 39 51.3% -1
5 MtnWest TCU 233.20 7 0 100.0% -446.49 39 43 47.6% 2
6 WAC Boise St 232.76 7 0 100.0% -662.38 38 51 42.7% -1
7 Big12 Texas 231.15 7 0 100.0% 293.66 48 37 56.5% -1
8 BigEast Pittsburgh 209.45 7 1 87.5% 302.43 49 31 61.3% 1
9 Pac10 USC 203.27 6 1 85.7% 466.25 48 38 55.8% 1
10 ACC Georgia Tech 200.05 7 1 87.5% -195.05 41 41 50.0% -2
11 Big10 Penn St 187.15 7 1 87.5% -40.25 46 39 54.1% 6
12 Pac10 Oregon 182.22 6 1 85.7% 689.81 52 35 59.8% 3
13 MAC Central Michigan 174.63 7 1 87.5% -915.66 34 52 39.5% -1
14 SEC LSU 173.87 6 1 85.7% 371.95 49 40 55.1% -1
15 CUSA Houston 165.46 6 1 85.7% -631.49 37 46 44.6% 3
16 BigEast West Virginia 152.08 6 1 85.7% 306.91 49 32 60.5% 5
17 MtnWest Utah 149.63 6 1 85.7% -182.22 41 46 47.1% 3
18 Big12 Oklahoma St 149.43 6 1 85.7% 26.67 44 37 54.3% 4
19 Big10 Ohio St 143.74 6 2 75.0% 620.80 56 37 60.2% 4
20 ACC Virginia Tech 137.01 5 2 71.4% 549.52 54 35 60.7% -6
21 SEC South Carolina 126.56 6 2 75.0% 231.39 45 34 57.0% 6
22 Pac10 Arizona 123.43 5 2 71.4% 641.59 52 30 63.4% 7
23 ACC Miami (FL) 120.79 5 2 71.4% 207.99 47 33 58.8% -7
24 WAC Idaho 118.27 6 2 75.0% -258.00 39 47 45.3% -13
25 MtnWest Brigham Young 115.90 6 2 75.0% -194.18 41 46 47.1% -6
26 Indy Navy 113.58 6 2 75.0% -581.31 42 48 46.7% 4
27 Indy Notre Dame 101.34 5 2 71.4% 561.80 53 39 57.6% 12
28 Big10 Wisconsin 94.55 5 2 71.4% 151.98 49 38 56.3% 3
29 Pac10 California 85.59 5 2 71.4% 69.00 43 39 52.4% 9
30 SunBelt Troy 84.80 5 2 71.4% -554.32 33 50 39.8% 10
31 SEC Mississippi 82.03 5 2 71.4% -309.89 40 37 51.9% 12
32 BigEast South Florida 79.58 5 2 71.4% -164.51 42 33 56.0% -7
33 Big12 Kansas 76.78 5 2 71.4% 164.43 48 34 58.5% -9
34 BigEast Rutgers 67.74 5 2 71.4% -358.86 40 36 52.6% 16
35 SEC Auburn 67.40 5 3 62.5% 132.72 46 35 56.8% -7
36 Pac10 Stanford 61.51 5 3 62.5% 454.45 47 38 55.3% 13
37 Big12 Texas Tech 60.16 5 3 62.5% -18.67 44 36 55.0% -11
38 Big10 Michigan 58.61 5 3 62.5% 79.54 47 38 55.3% -6
39 Big12 Iowa St 58.32 5 3 62.5% 177.82 48 34 58.5% 19
40 Big12 Oklahoma 56.67 4 3 57.1% 562.95 54 28 65.9% 23
41 Big12 Kansas St 55.66 5 3 62.5% -280.76 40 34 54.1% 14
42 SEC Georgia 52.01 4 3 57.1% 591.03 53 29 64.6% -1
43 ACC Clemson 51.58 4 3 57.1% 230.22 49 34 59.0% 23
44 ACC Boston College 51.46 5 3 62.5% -55.04 44 38 53.7% -11
45 CUSA Marshall 50.07 5 3 62.5% -323.90 39 41 48.8% 9
46 SEC Kentucky 50.05 4 3 57.1% -9.21 44 40 52.4% 13
47 MAC Temple 49.98 5 2 71.4% -1009.05 35 52 40.2% 13
48 Pac10 Oregon St 45.84 4 3 57.1% 389.53 48 33 59.3% -11
49 BigEast Connecticut 37.33 4 3 57.1% 460.80 52 28 65.0% -13
50 WAC Nevada 33.46 4 3 57.1% -107.89 43 44 49.4% 25
51 Big12 Nebraska 32.53 4 3 57.1% 249.25 46 39 54.1% -16
52 WAC Fresno St 32.42 4 3 57.1% -217.23 41 39 51.3% 18
53 Big12 Texas A&M 29.42 4 3 57.1% 47.02 44 43 50.6% 26
54 MAC Ohio 29.11 5 3 62.5% -1168.99 29 55 34.5% -20
55 CUSA East Carolina 27.55 4 3 57.1% -366.43 40 41 49.4% -2
56 Big10 Northwestern 27.16 5 3 62.5% -418.11 39 46 45.9% 15
57 Big12 Missouri 24.29 4 3 57.1% 50.04 45 36 55.6% -9
58 CUSA Southern Miss 24.09 5 3 62.5% -366.32 39 41 48.8% 11
59 SunBelt LA-Monroe 23.53 4 3 57.1% -580.09 34 43 44.2% -12
60 Pac10 Arizona St 23.15 4 3 57.1% 301.73 46 35 56.8% -18
61 MAC Northern Illinois 21.34 4 3 57.1% -861.42 36 50 41.9% 13
62 CUSA Tulsa 19.54 4 3 57.1% -549.22 36 44 45.0% -17
63 Big10 Minnesota 14.98 4 4 50.0% 362.36 51 33 60.7% -11
64 Big10 Michigan St 12.29 4 4 50.0% 475.43 54 32 62.8% -13
65 CUSA UCF 12.09 4 3 57.1% -284.66 41 41 50.0% 16
66 ACC North Carolina 11.70 4 3 57.1% -59.07 43 31 58.1% -22
67 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 10.37 4 3 57.1% -818.83 30 54 35.7% 9
68 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 9.26 4 3 57.1% -582.20 34 43 44.2% -22
69 MtnWest Wyoming 2.72 4 3 57.1% -119.41 43 39 52.4% -2
70 MtnWest Air Force 0.95 4 4 50.0% -185.71 45 40 52.9% -14
71 Pac10 Washington -0.36 3 5 37.5% 936.85 56 30 65.1% -14
72 ACC Duke -5.74 4 3 57.1% -262.31 42 34 55.3% 12
73 ACC Wake Forest -9.82 4 4 50.0% 106.05 47 36 56.6% -12
74 SEC Arkansas -10.05 3 4 42.9% 557.17 53 29 64.6% -10
75 ACC Florida St -11.79 3 4 42.9% 403.20 52 32 61.9% 14
76 MAC Western Michigan -12.87 4 4 50.0% -886.14 36 51 41.4% 10
77 Pac10 UCLA -16.22 3 4 42.9% 554.24 50 37 57.5% -9
78 Big10 Indiana -18.22 4 4 50.0% 108.11 48 37 56.5% -16
79 SEC Tennessee -22.69 3 4 42.9% 397.33 51 38 57.3% -14
80 MAC Kent St -24.71 4 4 50.0% -902.11 34 51 40.0% 11
81 CUSA UTEP -26.93 3 4 42.9% -237.01 42 46 47.7% 11
82 MAC Toledo -27.54 4 4 50.0% -702.21 36 55 39.6% -10
83 ACC NC State -32.48 3 4 42.9% -159.78 44 34 56.4% 4
84 Big12 Baylor -34.72 3 4 42.9% 347.46 51 32 61.4% -11
85 MtnWest San Diego St -37.97 3 4 42.9% -190.24 45 40 52.9% 10
86 CUSA SMU -40.18 3 4 42.9% -325.75 40 41 49.4% -6
87 MAC Bowling Green -44.00 3 5 37.5% -179.27 46 46 50.0% -5
88 BigEast Syracuse -46.43 3 4 42.9% 489.27 53 29 64.6% 10
89 ACC Virginia -48.33 3 4 42.9% 453.93 53 30 63.9% -12
90 WAC Louisiana Tech -48.39 3 4 42.9% 36.23 46 36 56.1% -12
91 Big10 Purdue -53.37 3 5 37.5% 448.83 53 38 58.2% 10
92 SunBelt Florida Atl -53.46 2 4 33.3% -445.46 37 47 44.0% 11
93 SEC Mississippi St -53.76 3 5 37.5% 843.15 57 25 69.5% -8
94 MtnWest Colorado St -58.19 3 5 37.5% -84.44 45 38 54.2% -11
95 SunBelt Arkansas St -60.96 2 4 33.3% -516.30 35 43 44.9% 7
96 MAC Buffalo -65.07 3 5 37.5% -345.62 43 43 50.0% -8
97 MtnWest UNLV -77.34 3 5 37.5% -142.79 43 38 53.1% 7
98 BigEast Louisville -78.55 2 5 28.6% 620.94 54 25 68.4% -5
99 Big12 Colorado -79.77 2 5 28.6% 726.64 57 31 64.8% -9
100 CUSA UAB -93.24 2 5 28.6% -183.69 42 44 48.8% -4
101 Indy Army -97.02 3 5 37.5% -875.16 35 47 42.7% -7
102 CUSA Memphis -101.19 2 5 28.6% -32.14 45 35 56.3% 4
103 WAC New Mexico St -102.90 3 5 37.5% -404.18 41 45 47.7% -6
104 WAC Utah St -103.86 2 5 28.6% 20.74 46 35 56.8% 8
105 CUSA Tulane -105.48 2 5 28.6% -155.22 45 38 54.2% -6
106 WAC Hawaii -107.73 2 5 28.6% -251.20 46 43 51.7% -6
107 WAC San Jose St -118.57 1 5 16.7% 159.76 48 34 58.5% 2
108 ACC Maryland -137.61 2 6 25.0% 13.44 45 35 56.3% -3
109 SEC Vanderbilt -145.51 2 6 25.0% 199.06 48 35 57.8% -2
110 SunBelt Florida Intl -154.44 1 6 14.3% 151.94 46 38 54.8% -2
111 SunBelt North Texas -154.88 1 6 14.3% -455.77 39 47 45.3% 2
112 Big10 Illinois -161.63 1 6 14.3% 378.30 53 33 61.6% -2
113 Pac10 Washington St -165.42 1 6 14.3% 661.86 51 35 59.3% 1
114 MAC Akron -169.51 1 6 14.3% -283.58 45 40 52.9% -3
115 MAC Miami (OH) -233.29 0 8 0.0% 472.59 55 36 60.4% 2
116 MtnWest New Mexico -242.73 0 7 0.0% 335.12 52 38 57.8% -1
117 MAC Ball St -254.80 1 7 12.5% -472.93 42 43 49.4% 3
118 MAC Eastern Michigan -259.36 0 7 0.0% -264.79 46 46 50.0% -2
119 SunBelt Western Kentucky -271.70 0 7 0.0% -385.08 38 40 48.7% 0
120 CUSA Rice -271.96 0 8 0.0% 136.46 47 40 54.0% -2

No changes in the conference rankings this week, though the BigEast did pad their lead...

Here's the breakdown at 2009 Non-Conference Games.

Week 8 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 70.72 BigEast 28 7 80.0% -3204.82 89 111 44.5%
2 53.00 SEC 28 5 84.8% -2498.54 86 116 42.6%
3 43.56 Big12 34 13 72.3% -2944.93 133 154 46.3%
4 42.72 Big10 28 10 73.7% -2197.04 112 115 49.3%
5 41.37 Pac10 20 8 71.4% 75.49 105 76 58.0%
6 18.71 ACC 25 15 62.5% -1669.31 134 83 61.8%
7 9.21 MtnWest 20 15 57.1% -1802.70 103 115 47.2%
8 -4.34 WAC 17 17 50.0% -1531.95 108 105 50.7%
9 -23.73 CUSA 18 25 41.9% -1063.78 150 111 57.5%
10 -51.79 MAC 15 33 31.3% -1157.75 171 135 55.9%
11 -53.39 SunBelt 8 23 25.8% 387.38 125 82 60.4%

(For the following, good & bad losses are ones that have earned or lost more than 40 points.)

#1 BigEast
Went 2-0 this week, beating Army & Akron. Overall though, their opponents lost them some ground, going 13-23
Good Wins: Pittsburgh cs 6-2 Navy, Cincy @ 4-3 Oregon St
Bad Losses: None

#2 SEC
1-0 this weekend, beating LA-Monroe, but their opponents went 13-17 - the cupcakes are still dragging them down.
Good Wins: Alabama v 5-2 Virginia Tech, Auburn vs 6-1 West Virginia
Bad Losses: None

#3 Big12
Their opponents went 14-20 this week, dropping their total a bit.
Good Wins: Missouri @ 4-3 Nevada
Bad Losses: Colorado vs 3-5 Colorado St

#4 Big10
Their opponents were 20-10 this week, helping them slightly.
Good Wins: Iowa @ 5-3 Iowa State, Iowa vs 5-2 Arizona, Ohio State vs 6-2 Navy
Bad Losses: None

#5 Pac10
Their opponents were 13-8, which helps minutely.
Good Wins: USC @ 6-2 Ohio State, Washington vs 6-2 Idaho, Arizona vs 7-1 Central Michigan, USC @ 5-2 Notre Dame, Oregon @ 6-1 Utah.
Bad Losses: Washington State vs 2-5 Hawaii

#6 ACC
26-13 opponents will boost you a bit, but losing to Notre Dame and Navy hurts big.
Good Wins: NC State vs 7-1 Pittsburgh, Florida State @ 6-2 BYU,
Bad Losses: Virginia vs I-AA William & Mary, Duke vs I-AA Richmond

#7 MtnWest
Their opponents went 12-16 this weekend - not helping.
Good Wins: TCU @ 4-3 Clemson
Bad Losses: New Mexico vs 3-5 New Mexico State

#8 WAC
Their opponents went 15-11 this weekend, which is better than last week.
Good Wins: Boise State @ 5-1 Oregon
Bad Losses: None

#9 CUSA
0-0 this weekend, while their opponent went 15-18.
Good Wins: Houston @ 6-1 Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: UTEP vs 3-5 Buffalot, SMU @ 1-6 Washington St, Rice vs 2-6 Vanderbilt

#10 MAC
0-1, losing to Syracuse. Not good.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Ball State vs I-AA New Hampshire, Temple vs I-AA Villanova, Ball State vs 1-6 North Texas, Eastern Michigan vs 3-5 Army

#11 SunBelt
And still at the bottom because of the loss to Kentucky.
Good Wins: None
Bad Losses: Western Kentucky vs I-AA Central Arkansas, Middle TN St vs 3-5 Mississippi St

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