Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Power Rankings: Week 8

In December of last year, I posted a new analysis of offense and defensive ability, the premise being that instead of using statistics about yards gained/allowed or points scored/allowed, a more telling statistic is the percentage of yards gained/allowed or points scored/allowed compared to your opponent's average. I've tinkered around with the idea a bit more and the final product is what I'll now call my power rankings. I'll clarify a few things and then get to the ubiquitous table.

There were a few notes and comments about that analysis eventually including strength of schedule, but I don't think I explained it well enough - SoS is already included in the analysis. Let me show you how:

You've got two teams, Team A & Team B, with identical yearly statistics. In every single game they played, they gained 350 yards and scored 24 points. In their first six games, they lost, allowing 400 yards and 37 points, while in their final six games they won, allowing 300 yards and 21 points, giving both of them a 6-6 record on the year. As far as YPG, PPG, dYPG (defensive Yards Per Game), dPPG, and W-L record, they are identical. The only difference between them is the opponents they played:

Team A Opponents Team B Opponents
Oklahoma (12-1) Idaho (2-10)
Virginia Tech (9-4) North Texas (1-11)
Ohio State (10-2) Washington (0-12)
Texas (11-1) Washington State (2-11)
Oregon (9-3) Mississippi State (4-8)
Florida (12-1) Toledo (3-9)
Georgia (9-3) Western Kentucky (2-10)
USC (11-1) SMU (1-11)
Penn State (11-1) Iowa State (2-10)
Texas Tech (11-1) Syracuse (3-9)
Utah (12-0) Miami OH (2-10)
Boise State (12-0) San Diego State (2-10)

Just by looking at the lists, anybody can tell that Team A played the hardest schedule imaginable while Team B played the easiest. And since they scored the same points, gained the same yards, and allowed the same defensive stats, Team A was obviously "better" since they played tougher teams.

But can we back up that assertion with hard data? Can we absolutely prove that Team A has more ability? This power analysis does just that. Here's the numbers: (remember, the higher the offensive percentage the better, and the lower the defensive percentage the better.)

Team A
Opponent Yds Opp dYPG avg oYds% Pts Opp dPPG avg oPts% opp Yds opp YPG avg dYds% opp Pts opp PPG avg dPts% Off. Avg Def. Avg Total Power
Oklahoma 350 359.1 97% 24 24.5 98% 400 562.1 71% 37 54.0 69% 98% 70% 28%
VA Tech 350 277.1 126% 24 17.5 137% 400 296.2 135% 37 22.2 166% 132% 151% -19%
Ohio St 350 279.3 125% 24 13.1 183% 400 339.7 118% 37 28.2 131% 154% 125% 30%
Texas 350 339.9 103% 24 18.6 129% 400 476.4 84% 37 43.9 84% 116% 84% 32%
Oregon 350 383.0 91% 24 28.0 86% 400 478.2 84% 37 41.9 88% 89% 86% 3%
Florida 350 279.3 125% 24 12.8 187% 400 442.4 90% 37 45.2 82% 156% 86% 70%
Georgia 350 318.3 110% 24 25.6 94% 300 433.9 69% 21 32.1 65% 102% 67% 35%
USC 350 206.1 170% 24 7.8 310% 300 453.1 66% 21 37.5 56% 240% 61% 179%
Penn St 350 263.9 133% 24 12.4 193% 300 452.2 66% 21 40.2 52% 163% 59% 104%
TX Tech 350 371.6 94% 24 26.3 91% 300 536.2 56% 21 44.6 47% 93% 52% 41%
Utah 350 295.9 118% 24 17.3 139% 300 405.3 74% 21 37.4 56% 129% 65% 64%
Boise St 350 294.5 119% 24 12.3 196% 300 456.8 66% 21 39.4 53% 157% 59% 98%
Total 350 305.7 118% 24 18.0 154% 350 444.3 82% 29 38.9 79% 136% 80% 56%

Like Team B, Team A gained 350 yards and scored 24 points per game. But their opponents usually only allowed an average of 305 yards and 18 points per game. That means that Team A gained 118% of the yards and 154% of the points their opponents usually allowed. On the defensive side, while they allowed an average of 350 yards and 29 points per game, their opponents usually gained 444 yards and scored 39 points per game. That means Team A held them to 82% of their usual yards and 79% of their usual points. Overall, Team A gained 136% of the offense their opponents usually allowed and only allowed 80% of the offense their opponents usually gained, a difference of 56%. (100% is average for each individual offense or defensive category, & 0% is average for the total of the two, so even with a 6-6 record that's stellar.)

Team B
Opponent Yds Opp dYPG avg oYds% Pts Opp dPPG avg oPts% opp Yds opp YPG avg dYds% opp Pts opp PPG avg dPts% Off. Avg Def. Avg Total Power
Idaho 350 472.0 74% 24 42.8 56% 400 320.9 125% 37 19.6 189% 65% 157% -92%
N Texas 350 482.6 73% 24 47.6 50% 400 363.0 110% 37 20.0 185% 61% 148% -86%
Washington 350 451.8 77% 24 38.6 62% 400 263.2 152% 37 13.3 279% 70% 216% -146%
Wash. St 350 443.4 79% 24 43.8 55% 400 241.1 166% 37 12.7 292% 67% 229% -162%
Miss. St 350 327.5 107% 24 24.7 97% 400 274.9 145% 37 15.3 243% 102% 194% -92%
Toledo 350 381.4 92% 24 31.4 76% 400 334.1 120% 37 22.4 165% 84% 142% -58%
W Kentcky 350 375.3 93% 24 27.2 88% 300 286.1 105% 21 17.5 120% 91% 112% -22%
SMU 350 479.5 73% 24 38.2 63% 300 314.3 95% 21 21.3 98% 68% 97% -29%
Iowa St 350 452.8 77% 24 35.8 67% 300 386.8 78% 21 25.3 83% 72% 80% -8%
Syracuse 350 414.5 84% 24 32.7 73% 300 270.2 111% 21 18.1 116% 79% 114% -35%
Miami (OH) 350 395.5 88% 24 32.7 73% 300 326.0 92% 21 18.4 114% 81% 103% -22%
San D. St 350 460.8 76% 24 37.2 65% 300 312.4 96% 21 19.3 109% 70% 103% -32%
Total 350 428.1 83% 24 36.0 69% 350 307.7 116% 29 18.6 166% 76% 141% -65%

Like Team A, Team B gained 350 yards and scored 24 points per game. But their opponents usually only allowed an average of 428 yards and 36 points per game. That means that Team B only gained 83% of the yards and 69% of the points their opponents usually allowed. On the defensive side, while they allowed an average of 350 yards and 29 points per game, their opponents usually gained 307 yards and scored 18 points per game. That means Team B allowed 116% of their opponents usual yards and 166% of their usual points. Overall, Team B gained just 76% of the offense their opponents usually allowed and allowed 141% of the offense their opponents usually gained, a difference of -65%. (So even with a 6-6 record that's pretty poor.)

So that's how SoS is automatically factored into this type of analysis. Granted, these two schedules are extreme, but the huge statistical difference between Team A's +55% and Team B's -65% shows how precise this analysis can be at determining offensive and defensive power. Of course, as usual (and as my Texas Tech prediction of last week proved), this analysis isn't forward looking - it only measures what a team has achieved, not what they're going to do.

And as I mentioned last year, these aren't power rankings in a sense of who's had the best season or who's achieved the most. That's why 4-3 Oklahoma & 4-3 Nebraska are sitting at #8 & #10 respectively. It's a measure of a team's offensive and defensive abilities, and is best understood when taken in conjunction with rankings and win-loss records. Those Big12 teams have won less games than their ability suggests they should have. Conversely, at 4-4 but ranked #109 here, Kent State has won more games than their ability suggests they should have.

Another way to use these statistics is to illuminate the ypp & ppg stats. For instance, while Oregon State ranks #34 in points per game with 29.2, they've faced much sturdier defenses than a lot of other top teams - that's why they're ranked #5 in PPG% at 159%. While Army is giving up just 287.4 yards per game, ranked #11, it's been against easier offensive competition - they're ranked #29 in dYPG% at 89%.

As a final note, one of the main changes I made to the number crunching was that I eliminated all games against I-AA opponents. Stats against those teams don't count toward any of a team's totals, mainly because they skewed things too much. By deleting them, we get a lot more iteration and better focus on just I-A teams.

Some interesting things to note...

• Washington State is the only BCS team in the Bottom 20, while Boise State, TCU, and Fresno State are the only non-BCS teams in the Top 20.

• Of all the undefeated or one-loss teams, Houston's defense is the worst by far, giving up 132% of what their opponents usually gain. By that same token, LSU's offense is the worst, gaining just 87% of what their opponents usually give up.

• There are two teams who's overall offense is in the Top 20 and overall defense is in the Bottom 20 - Florida State and Houston. There's one team who's overall offense is in the Bottom 20 and overall defense is in the Top 20 - North Carolina.

• There are four teams in the Bottom 20 in every single category - Western Kentucky, Washington State, New Mexico, and Rice. There's only one team in the Top 20 in every single category - Boise State.

The column headers are sortable & pretty self-explanatory. Total is the difference between offense and defense, blue is Top 20, red is Bottom 20.

Offense vs Defense
W L Conf Team YPG YPG% PPG PPG% dYPG dYPG% dPPG dPPG% Offense Defense Total
7 0 Big12 Texas 438.1 119% 41.9 178% 235.6 060% 13.6 050% 149% 055% a94%
7 0 SEC Florida 429.2 127% 30.8 142% 214.0 055% 11.3 039% 134% 047% aa87%
7 0 WAC Boise St 444.3 125% 41.5 168% 291.0 071% 14.3 049% 146% 060% aaa86%
5 2 ACC Virginia Tech 380.0 114% 32.6 194% 318.0 083% 19.1 065% 154% 074% aaaa80%
8 0 SEC Alabama 410.1 118% 31.8 140% 242.4 063% 11.4 039% 129% 051% aaaaa78%
7 0 MtnWest TCU 415.0 128% 30.8 136% 246.2 067% 11.3 045% 132% 056% b76%
5 3 Big12 Texas Tech 494.7 144% 40.3 203% 390.7 100% 25.3 097% 174% 098% bb75%
4 3 Big12 Oklahoma 394.8 121% 26.5 125% 301.7 072% 11.8 036% 123% 054% bbb69%
7 0 BigEast Cincinnati 440.2 125% 35.8 153% 341.2 094% 15.5 067% 139% 080% bbbb58%
4 3 Big12 Nebraska 381.4 100% 28.7 110% 265.0 067% 11.4 037% 105% 052% bbbbb53%
8 0 Big10 Iowa 343.9 101% 24.6 132% 287.9 074% 14.6 056% 117% 065% c52%
6 1 Pac10 Oregon 368.1 096% 34.0 144% 297.1 077% 16.7 061% 120% 069% cc51%
6 1 Pac10 USC 440.4 109% 31.4 122% 291.1 077% 15.1 055% 116% 066% ccc50%
7 1 Big10 Penn St 410.3 115% 27.1 114% 245.1 077% 9.7 053% 115% 065% cccc50%
5 2 ACC Miami (FL) 380.2 115% 27.2 152% 330.3 086% 24.8 084% 134% 085% ccccc49%
3 4 SEC Tennessee 385.3 114% 28.9 121% 269.7 073% 18.4 068% 118% 070% d48%
6 2 Big10 Ohio St 353.3 095% 29.3 116% 284.8 074% 13.1 046% 105% 060% dd45%
7 1 ACC Georgia Tech 410.0 127% 32.0 155% 364.6 102% 24.9 093% 141% 097% ddd44%
4 3 Pac10 Oregon St 395.5 120% 29.2 159% 386.0 094% 28.8 098% 139% 096% dddd43%
4 3 WAC Fresno St 444.3 130% 33.7 156% 374.7 106% 25.7 098% 143% 102% ddddd41%
4 3 ACC Clemson 339.3 101% 28.3 124% 293.4 075% 18.4 071% 113% 073% e40%
5 2 Pac10 Arizona 426.5 122% 29.3 138% 329.7 086% 25.3 097% 130% 092% ee38%
5 2 Big12 Kansas 463.0 127% 32.8 153% 361.3 100% 26.0 108% 140% 104% eee36%
6 1 BigEast West Virginia 418.2 118% 31.0 134% 327.2 095% 21.5 085% 126% 090% eeee36%
7 1 BigEast Pittsburgh 400.7 114% 33.7 143% 336.0 095% 20.1 092% 129% 093% eeeee35%
5 3 SEC Auburn 431.4 129% 31.8 146% 368.8 104% 26.9 106% 138% 105% f32%
6 2 MtnWest BYU 447.4 124% 34.6 125% 348.1 091% 24.6 095% 124% 093% ff31%
5 2 SEC Mississippi 376.7 102% 26.5 100% 302.2 082% 14.8 062% 101% 072% fff29%
5 2 Indy Notre Dame 438.4 122% 30.0 130% 409.4 107% 24.1 090% 126% 098% ffff28%
3 4 SEC Arkansas 386.7 130% 29.3 147% 455.7 118% 30.3 108% 139% 113% fffff26%
3 5 SEC MissSt 365.6 108% 23.7 126% 380.7 092% 27.1 093% 117% 092% g25%
5 2 Big10 Wisconsin 389.2 115% 25.7 126% 337.2 093% 26.7 102% 120% 097% gg23%
6 2 SEC S Carolina 364.9 106% 20.9 088% 283.6 077% 18.0 071% 097% 074% ggg23%
6 1 MtnWest Utah 397.4 100% 27.9 107% 308.3 088% 17.7 075% 104% 082% gggg22%
7 1 MAC C Michigan 412.6 110% 31.0 111% 358.3 098% 17.3 080% 111% 089% ggggg22%
3 4 ACC Virginia 292.7 085% 23.3 108% 316.8 085% 20.0 069% 096% 077% h19%
3 5 Big10 Purdue 401.0 113% 27.6 133% 360.9 099% 26.9 111% 123% 105% hh17%
4 3 SEC Kentucky 337.3 105% 26.1 116% 352.3 092% 23.0 095% 111% 093% hhh17%
4 4 Big10 Michigan St 390.7 110% 24.9 111% 351.4 091% 23.3 096% 111% 094% hhhh17%
6 1 SEC LSU 306.6 083% 24.1 090% 304.0 084% 13.9 057% 087% 070% hhhhh16%
4 4 MtnWest Air Force 309.3 089% 18.9 084% 283.3 081% 15.1 060% 087% 071% i16%
5 3 Pac10 Stanford 435.3 120% 31.9 118% 369.3 108% 22.4 099% 119% 103% ii16%
6 2 Indy Navy 363.6 095% 30.1 120% 316.1 094% 20.8 090% 107% 092% iii15%
3 4 ACC Florida St 432.3 133% 31.7 151% 430.3 124% 31.2 130% 142% 127% iiii15%
6 1 Big12 Oklahoma St 389.3 094% 33.8 115% 367.5 096% 22.3 088% 104% 092% iiiii12%
4 3 Big12 Missouri 346.3 097% 21.8 092% 337.2 082% 25.2 084% 094% 083% j12%
5 3 Big10 Michigan 358.4 100% 29.7 138% 389.0 107% 26.0 109% 119% 108% jj11%
3 5 Pac10 Washington 365.1 112% 24.6 122% 423.5 109% 29.8 104% 117% 106% jjj11%
6 1 CUSA Houston 536.3 143% 38.0 143% 470.5 134% 29.3 131% 143% 132% jjjj10%
5 3 Big12 Iowa St 377.1 113% 22.9 103% 385.0 113% 20.1 083% 108% 098% jjjjj10%
4 3 SEC Georgia 334.9 099% 27.0 144% 365.4 106% 27.7 118% 122% 112% k10%
4 3 WAC Nevada 505.6 132% 35.1 129% 413.4 111% 31.4 131% 131% 121% kk10%
6 2 CUSA Sou. Miss 374.0 098% 30.3 120% 334.0 096% 23.3 108% 109% 102% kkk7%
5 2 BigEast Rutgers 310.2 085% 23.2 095% 344.0 095% 21.8 077% 090% 086% kkkk4%
4 3 BigEast Connecticut 374.8 106% 24.3 100% 352.3 102% 21.2 096% 103% 099% kkkkk4%
4 3 ACC Duke 379.6 112% 28.6 117% 387.0 110% 27.6 112% 114% 111% l3%
3 4 Pac10 UCLA 296.1 083% 20.0 084% 339.7 086% 22.6 074% 083% 080% ll3%
5 2 Pac10 California 417.0 116% 31.2 125% 407.0 129% 24.8 106% 120% 118% lll3%
5 2 MAC Temple 289.8 080% 26.3 094% 313.0 088% 18.7 082% 087% 085% llll2%
4 3 Big12 Texas A&M 489.0 122% 35.9 134% 411.6 110% 32.9 143% 128% 126% lllll2%
5 3 ACC Boston Coll 313.1 081% 25.4 099% 360.9 096% 23.6 086% 090% 091% m-1%
5 2 SunBelt Troy 459.7 119% 28.6 100% 384.9 102% 27.7 120% 109% 111% mm-2%
5 2 BigEast S Florida 350.0 087% 23.4 086% 360.6 098% 23.0 081% 087% 089% mmm-2%
3 5 MAC Bowl Green 404.1 114% 23.6 104% 388.4 110% 28.4 116% 109% 113% mmmm-4%
4 3 Pac10 Arizona St 352.0 085% 22.8 072% 320.5 085% 21.0 081% 079% 083% mmmmm-4%
4 3 ACC N Carolina 272.4 071% 16.0 064% 308.2 081% 19.4 066% 068% 074% n-6%
4 3 CUSA UCF 334.8 085% 24.0 074% 344.3 098% 18.3 076% 080% 087% nn-7%
4 3 MAC N Illinois 335.5 086% 27.2 089% 370.0 094% 21.3 098% 087% 096% nnn-8%
2 4 SunBelt Arkansas St 313.6 086% 18.8 086% 383.6 103% 23.6 089% 086% 096% nnnn-10%
5 3 Big12 Kansas St 332.8 084% 24.0 090% 383.5 102% 24.8 091% 087% 097% nnnnn-10%
3 4 WAC LA Tech 321.7 081% 22.3 076% 374.7 092% 23.7 086% 079% 089% o-10%
2 5 Big12 Colorado 301.9 082% 22.4 090% 379.0 095% 28.6 098% 086% 097% oo-11%
4 3 CUSA Tulsa 379.3 096% 25.5 084% 348.3 100% 22.3 105% 090% 102% ooo-12%
4 4 Big10 Minnesota 292.8 089% 21.1 093% 407.5 112% 25.1 097% 091% 105% oooo-14%
3 5 MAC Buffalo 397.0 110% 20.7 087% 372.6 110% 28.9 115% 098% 112% ooooo-14%
3 5 MtnWest Colorado St 355.6 101% 23.0 088% 419.1 108% 31.4 111% 094% 110% p-15%
2 5 WAC Utah St 396.5 107% 22.7 084% 420.5 104% 30.7 119% 096% 112% pp-16%
5 3 MAC Ohio 298.9 082% 24.6 090% 356.6 105% 22.6 100% 086% 102% ppp-16%
4 4 ACC Wake Forest 373.7 105% 22.0 082% 374.7 111% 25.0 113% 094% 112% pppp-18%
1 6 BigEast Louisville 352.5 106% 18.2 087% 420.8 111% 33.3 118% 097% 115% ppppp-18%
3 4 CUSA SMU 372.0 094% 25.7 111% 382.0 102% 33.2 140% 103% 121% q-18%
4 3 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 411.0 103% 27.0 081% 362.0 101% 26.4 120% 092% 111% qq-19%
6 2 WAC Idaho 429.5 106% 31.5 108% 401.6 118% 30.8 137% 107% 127% qqq-20%
3 4 BigEast Syracuse 305.5 087% 20.8 089% 342.2 098% 27.8 122% 088% 110% qqqq-22%
4 3 SunBelt LA-Monroe 358.7 098% 23.0 093% 397.0 108% 33.8 129% 095% 119% qqqqq-23%
3 4 ACC NC State 354.4 103% 22.6 103% 385.8 111% 33.8 144% 103% 128% r-25%
3 4 MtnWest San Diego St 336.8 093% 25.3 098% 355.7 103% 29.3 138% 096% 121% rr-25%
5 3 CUSA Marshall 321.6 081% 19.4 063% 397.7 113% 20.0 083% 072% 098% rrr-25%
5 3 Big10 Northwestern 379.4 103% 24.4 086% 357.1 113% 25.0 129% 095% 121% rrrr-26%
4 3 CUSA E Carolina 332.3 088% 24.5 092% 369.7 117% 23.0 118% 090% 117% rrrrr-27%
4 3 MtnWest Wyoming 311.0 083% 17.8 055% 366.3 102% 23.8 091% 069% 097% s-28%
3 4 Big12 Baylor 320.3 087% 16.8 077% 426.7 120% 26.2 105% 082% 112% ss-30%
4 4 MAC W Michigan 392.0 104% 27.4 096% 434.0 121% 29.9 141% 100% 131% sss-30%
2 6 ACC Maryland 319.1 089% 19.3 082% 373.4 103% 31.1 131% 086% 117% ssss-31%
4 4 MAC Toledo 440.1 119% 29.1 113% 423.5 129% 38.3 164% 116% 147% sssss-31%
3 4 CUSA UTEP 348.6 091% 25.0 100% 483.7 126% 33.3 132% 095% 129% t-33%
2 6 SEC Vanderbilt 280.6 081% 12.6 047% 349.3 106% 20.3 092% 064% 099% tt-35%
1 6 Big10 Illinois 320.8 101% 11.3 064% 418.8 115% 29.5 122% 082% 118% ttt-36%
1 6 SunBelt North Texas 403.6 108% 25.4 092% 434.3 113% 37.6 161% 100% 137% tttt-37%
4 4 Big10 Indiana 354.4 094% 24.3 097% 394.3 127% 28.4 139% 096% 133% ttttt-37%
3 5 Indy Army 278.8 072% 16.9 060% 287.4 089% 22.6 118% 066% 104% u-37%
2 5 WAC Hawaii 425.2 106% 21.0 068% 436.0 121% 35.3 131% 087% 126% uu-39%
2 5 CUSA Memphis 348.3 094% 18.2 077% 404.8 116% 31.8 134% 086% 125% uuu-40%
1 7 MAC Ball St 344.6 094% 21.7 076% 400.3 111% 31.0 139% 085% 125% uuuu-40%
2 4 SunBelt Florida Atl 448.2 130% 27.8 098% 446.5 132% 35.5 177% 114% 154% uuuuu-41%
3 5 MtnWest UNLV 369.9 096% 25.7 089% 463.3 118% 37.1 156% 093% 137% v-44%
2 5 CUSA UAB 368.6 096% 22.9 078% 459.9 126% 33.4 144% 087% 135% vv-47%
0 8 MAC Miami (OH) 316.0 086% 11.6 049% 370.3 103% 34.4 128% 068% 115% vvv-48%
4 4 MAC Kent St 318.9 081% 21.1 075% 376.1 118% 24.4 135% 078% 126% vvvv-49%
1 6 MAC Akron 254.0 071% 14.5 066% 389.3 108% 30.8 130% 068% 119% vvvvv-51%
1 5 WAC San Jose St 265.4 072% 16.0 065% 485.6 117% 38.4 129% 069% 123% w-54%
2 5 CUSA Tulane 310.8 084% 10.8 043% 396.7 101% 37.5 145% 063% 123% ww-60%
1 6 SunBelt Florida Intl 321.3 080% 25.0 088% 489.9 143% 34.4 154% 084% 149% www-65%
0 7 MAC E Michigan 265.7 073% 15.4 061% 399.4 121% 33.7 148% 067% 134% wwww-68%
4 3 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 313.7 078% 19.5 055% 419.3 119% 34.7 151% 066% 135% wwwww-69%
1 6 Pac10 Wash St 290.6 077% 15.1 056% 499.6 132% 37.0 143% 066% 138% x-71%
3 5 WAC New Mex St 247.6 058% 12.1 036% 382.1 110% 29.4 131% 047% 120% xx-74%
0 7 MtnWest New Mexico 295.0 077% 14.9 057% 429.3 119% 37.3 181% 067% 150% xxx-83%
0 7 SunBelt W Kentucky 290.0 076% 18.0 066% 526.2 160% 44.2 200% 071% 180% xxxx-109%
0 8 CUSA Rice 300.3 079% 14.9 061% 469.4 139% 45.5 222% 070% 180% xxxxx-111%

4 comments:

Jams said...

This is AWESOME. I love it. Perfect. Makes so much sense.

It reminds me of some of the stuff that Year2 has done over at teamspeedkills.com (and formerly at year2.wordpress.com) (here's a link so some of them)

This is what a power ranking should be based on. I'd love to see how good of a predictor this is between teams. Care to include some Power Ranking-based predictions for this week's games?

Rob said...

Very cool, nicely done. Will there be a link where we can check it out weekly like your other rankings?

Griffin Caprio said...

Ah, Ed, you've done it again. This is exactly the type of ranking that I was chronically late coming up with and was going to use over at TAP. Great job!

Ed Gunther said...

Thanks, guys - I appreciate it. To answer some of the questions...

Yes, I'll be posting these power rankings weekly from now on (there's a link under the "2009 Season" heading on the left).

I'm trying to work up a reliable predictor system, Jams, and I think these power rankings are sturdy enough to have a place in that, but on their own they definitely have issues. For instance, I put a little teaser into my weekly predictions last week about Texas Tech being underrated, since their offense is better than most people think, but then they went a got hammered by a pretty lousy Texas A&M team. That's just one example, and it could be that that was one of those games where most predictors failed, but I haven't had the time to tinker with a system just yet.