Sunday, November 29, 2009

Week 13 Rankings

Some interesting developments at the top of the rankings. Alabama and Florida are still #1 & #2, but their lead over Texas is significant. The winner of the SEC championship is going to finish the regular season #1 in the rankings, but the loser won't drop too far. Texas, if they win the Big12 championship, should gain enough points to jump into the #2 spot... but it's going to be close.

All of the other reams are pretty well spread out. TCU, Boise State, and Cincinnati at spots 4-6 are in the 400's, then there's a huge drop to the 2-loss teams of Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia Tech, and Iowa. Another big drop to the best 3-loss teams rounds out the top 15.

Toughest SoS is Mississippi State by far, still trailed by the Pac10 northwest schools. But the SEC got a big boost in the SoS department this weekend, now claiming 6 of the top 12 spots. (Though interestingly that group does not include Florida or Alabama, whose SoS's rank #39 and #29, respectively.) The Pac10 still has 6 of the top 16 spots, with the ACC's Florida State, Virginia Tech, Virginia rounding out the toughest.

Week 13 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 SEC Alabama 496.19 12 0 100.0% 212.72 71 61 53.8% 0
2 SEC Florida 483.59 12 0 100.0% 146.81 69 64 51.9% 0
3 Big12 Texas 439.68 12 0 100.0% -53.54 74 70 51.4% 1
4 MtnWest TCU 421.14 12 0 100.0% -951.92 63 70 47.4% -1
5 WAC Boise St 411.94 12 0 100.0% -1282.48 62 80 43.7% 1
6 BigEast Cincinnati 402.84 11 0 100.0% -197.92 65 60 52.0% -1
7 Big10 Ohio St 328.25 10 2 83.3% 153.72 75 66 53.2% 0
8 Pac10 Oregon 322.56 9 2 81.8% 1103.81 80 59 57.6% 1
9 ACC Georgia Tech 310.22 10 2 83.3% -26.14 67 67 50.0% -1
10 Big10 Iowa 308.06 10 2 83.3% 59.44 73 57 56.2% 0
11 ACC Virginia Tech 282.42 9 3 75.0% 972.59 85 59 59.0% 2
12 ACC Miami (FL) 270.85 9 3 75.0% 441.54 76 56 57.6% 3
13 Big10 Penn St 256.17 10 2 83.3% -401.77 68 64 51.5% -1
14 MtnWest Brigham Young 253.66 10 2 83.3% -509.07 67 77 46.5% 5
15 Pac10 USC 249.35 8 3 72.7% 726.93 73 65 52.9% 1
16 BigEast Pittsburgh 242.65 9 2 81.8% 127.08 72 56 56.3% -5
17 SEC LSU 237.87 9 3 75.0% 764.59 76 66 53.5% 8
18 CUSA Houston 235.72 10 2 83.3% -1178.45 60 74 44.8% -1
19 MAC Central Michigan 212.30 10 2 83.3% -1745.19 55 78 41.4% 3
20 Big12 Oklahoma St 211.10 9 3 75.0% 38.95 73 60 54.9% -6
21 Pac10 Oregon St 197.65 8 3 72.7% 505.66 71 56 55.9% 0
22 Big12 Nebraska 191.59 9 3 75.0% -225.44 69 73 48.6% 6
23 Pac10 California 191.49 8 3 72.7% -80.11 63 65 49.2% 0
24 Pac10 Stanford 188.21 8 4 66.7% 403.76 68 69 49.6% 5
25 BigEast West Virginia 185.05 8 3 72.7% 209.65 73 55 57.0% 8
26 SunBelt Troy 182.94 9 3 75.0% -719.01 64 76 45.7% 4
27 ACC North Carolina 180.87 8 4 66.7% -145.02 69 52 57.0% -9
28 MtnWest Utah 175.08 9 3 75.0% -385.55 67 75 47.2% -8
29 ACC Clemson 166.95 8 4 66.7% 308.65 76 58 56.7% -5
30 Pac10 Arizona 159.44 7 4 63.6% 717.92 76 53 58.9% 8
31 SEC Georgia 152.28 7 5 58.3% 905.70 81 53 60.4% 21
32 Big10 Wisconsin 151.87 8 3 72.7% 0.47 74 59 55.6% -5
33 SEC Mississippi 148.97 8 4 66.7% -396.25 63 60 51.2% -7
34 SunBelt Mid Tenn St 138.86 9 3 75.0% -1649.66 50 90 35.7% 8
35 MAC Ohio 137.49 9 3 75.0% -1742.87 54 79 40.6% 9
36 Big12 Texas Tech 132.59 8 4 66.7% -234.47 71 62 53.4% 7
37 ACC Boston College 131.85 8 4 66.7% -309.05 67 66 50.4% 3
38 BigEast Rutgers 128.91 8 3 72.7% -848.49 59 57 50.9% 3
39 CUSA UCF 122.77 8 4 66.7% -432.85 69 64 51.9% 10
40 CUSA East Carolina 122.47 8 4 66.7% -482.24 67 65 50.8% 8
41 Big10 Northwestern 121.70 8 4 66.7% -1082.82 57 74 43.5% -7
42 SEC Arkansas 118.90 7 5 58.3% 914.85 82 51 61.7% -6
43 Big12 Missouri 116.55 8 4 66.7% -135.89 72 61 54.1% 3
44 SEC Tennessee 115.38 7 5 58.3% 762.61 79 64 55.2% 11
45 SEC South Carolina 113.08 7 5 58.3% 837.80 79 53 59.8% 9
46 SEC Auburn 111.74 7 5 58.3% 497.42 75 57 56.8% -7
47 Indy Navy 107.65 8 4 66.7% -901.82 69 72 48.9% -15
48 MAC Temple 103.41 9 3 75.0% -1937.24 54 78 40.9% -17
49 Big12 Oklahoma 101.50 7 5 58.3% 613.96 83 51 61.9% 8
50 BigEast South Florida 98.68 7 4 63.6% -355.53 65 53 55.1% -15
51 WAC Nevada 96.10 8 4 66.7% -597.77 66 75 46.8% -14
52 WAC Fresno St 88.04 7 4 63.6% -505.07 67 62 51.9% -5
53 SEC Kentucky 86.58 7 5 58.3% 205.87 70 64 52.2% -8
54 ACC Florida St 69.79 6 6 50.0% 979.22 84 49 63.2% -4
55 MAC Bowling Green 65.45 7 5 58.3% -327.12 75 69 52.1% 5
56 BigEast Connecticut 63.57 6 5 54.5% 575.44 78 50 60.9% 5
57 MtnWest Air Force 45.36 7 5 58.3% -624.77 69 64 51.9% -1
58 Pac10 UCLA 30.94 6 6 50.0% 769.75 74 64 53.6% 1
59 Indy Notre Dame 18.44 6 6 50.0% 598.99 76 64 54.3% -1
60 CUSA Southern Miss 17.58 7 5 58.3% -1190.00 59 75 44.0% -7
61 CUSA SMU 15.30 7 5 58.3% -903.62 64 69 48.1% 6
62 WAC Idaho 13.64 7 5 58.3% -766.68 63 77 45.0% -11
63 SEC Mississippi St 11.34 5 7 41.7% 1631.82 93 40 69.9% 11
64 Big10 Michigan St 9.26 6 6 50.0% 95.07 76 55 58.0% 1
65 Big10 Minnesota 9.01 6 6 50.0% 617.18 79 51 60.8% -1
66 MAC Northern Illinois -1.02 7 5 58.3% -1841.30 55 77 41.7% -4
67 Big12 Texas A&M -12.12 6 6 50.0% 10.33 72 72 50.0% -1
68 Big12 Iowa St -16.70 6 6 50.0% -399.38 70 62 53.0% 0
69 Big12 Kansas St -30.78 6 6 50.0% -850.19 64 59 52.0% 1
70 Big10 Purdue -31.54 5 7 41.7% 372.15 77 64 54.6% 1
71 CUSA Marshall -33.49 6 6 50.0% -509.14 68 64 51.5% -8
72 MtnWest Wyoming -37.37 6 6 50.0% -442.41 70 63 52.6% 4
73 Pac10 Washington -42.34 4 7 36.4% 1183.19 81 58 58.3% 4
74 WAC Hawaii -42.64 6 6 50.0% -872.91 69 73 48.6% 6
75 SunBelt LA-Monroe -49.39 6 6 50.0% -1195.71 59 71 45.4% -6
76 ACC Wake Forest -56.07 5 7 41.7% 147.79 73 60 54.9% 8
77 SunBelt LA-Lafayette -67.76 6 6 50.0% -1165.81 60 69 46.5% -4
78 ACC NC State -69.65 5 7 41.7% -333.81 67 55 54.9% 12
79 CUSA UAB -73.91 5 7 41.7% -362.98 71 72 49.7% -7
80 MtnWest UNLV -81.79 5 7 41.7% -191.97 74 58 56.1% 9
81 Big12 Kansas -89.54 5 7 41.7% -135.77 75 58 56.4% -6
82 MAC Buffalo -99.79 5 7 41.7% -794.55 70 63 52.6% 11
83 Big10 Michigan -105.60 5 7 41.7% -506.82 67 64 51.1% 3
84 Big12 Baylor -106.90 4 8 33.3% 506.51 81 52 60.9% -3
85 BigEast Syracuse -109.54 4 8 33.3% 641.21 80 47 63.0% -6
86 BigEast Louisville -111.45 4 8 33.3% 582.90 79 47 62.7% -8
87 CUSA Tulsa -113.26 5 7 41.7% -1037.26 63 70 47.4% 7
88 Pac10 Arizona St -116.24 4 8 33.3% 557.10 72 56 56.3% -3
89 SunBelt Florida Atl -126.87 4 7 36.4% -809.85 65 76 46.1% 6
90 Indy Army -136.10 5 6 45.5% -2014.75 52 80 39.4% 2
91 MAC Kent St -136.27 5 7 41.7% -1614.80 57 77 42.5% -8
92 ACC Duke -140.55 5 7 41.7% -746.95 62 59 51.2% -10
93 MAC Toledo -152.58 5 7 41.7% -1159.12 62 81 43.4% -5
94 MtnWest San Diego St -154.80 4 8 33.3% -688.56 69 65 51.5% -3
95 WAC Louisiana Tech -157.88 3 8 27.3% -223.73 73 59 55.3% 3
96 WAC Utah St -159.08 4 8 33.3% -282.22 73 58 55.7% 6
97 Big10 Illinois -161.87 3 8 27.3% 514.34 80 51 61.1% -1
98 Big10 Indiana -167.89 4 8 33.3% -318.28 70 62 53.0% -1
99 SunBelt Florida Intl -189.28 3 8 27.3% 15.28 76 64 54.3% 2
100 MAC Western Michigan -190.66 5 7 41.7% -2194.19 50 83 37.6% -13
101 SunBelt Arkansas St -201.58 3 8 27.3% -1057.21 62 68 47.7% 3
102 ACC Virginia -208.01 3 9 25.0% 749.86 83 50 62.4% -3
103 Big12 Colorado -218.36 3 9 25.0% 550.11 83 60 58.0% -3
104 CUSA UTEP -224.36 4 8 33.3% -850.80 65 79 45.1% 3
105 WAC San Jose St -241.30 2 9 18.2% 8.49 75 56 57.3% 7
106 SEC Vanderbilt -244.04 2 10 16.7% 704.60 79 53 59.8% 4
107 CUSA Tulane -246.41 3 9 25.0% -442.50 73 59 55.3% -2
108 MAC Akron -249.22 3 9 25.0% -782.59 70 63 52.6% 3
109 MtnWest Colorado St -254.77 3 9 25.0% -428.08 72 62 53.7% -6
110 CUSA Memphis -279.23 2 10 16.7% -68.91 77 56 57.9% -4
111 ACC Maryland -279.76 2 10 16.7% 112.25 74 57 56.5% -3
112 CUSA Rice -296.95 2 10 16.7% 45.62 77 67 53.5% 1
113 WAC New Mexico St -308.93 3 9 25.0% -957.25 68 74 47.9% -4
114 Pac10 Washington St -310.17 1 11 8.3% 1172.16 81 57 58.7% 0
115 MAC Miami (OH) -335.40 1 11 8.3% 749.10 90 53 62.9% 1
116 SunBelt North Texas -342.04 2 10 16.7% -672.08 68 71 48.9% -1
117 MAC Ball St -381.60 2 10 16.7% -1160.93 67 65 50.8% 1
118 MtnWest New Mexico -387.71 1 11 8.3% 64.78 78 66 54.2% -1
119 SunBelt Western Kentucky -474.99 0 11 0.0% -816.42 65 65 50.0% 0
120 MAC Eastern Michigan -520.67 0 12 0.0% -796.73 71 72 49.7% 0

Some big changes in the conference race this weekend. With their two wins over the best teams in the ACC and another over Florida State, the SEC takes over the top spot from the BigEast, but just barely. Said BigEast beat Illinois, but lost to Miami (FL), going 1-1 in non-conf play this weekend. With Stanford's victory over Notre Dame, the Pac10 takes over the #3 spot ahead of the Big12 and Big10.

Here's the breakdown at 2009 Non-Conference Games.

Week 13 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 81.49 SEC 42 6 87.5% -7466.55 197 254 43.7%
2 79.43 BigEast 32 8 80.0% -5570.61 172 194 47.0%
3 40.51 Pac10 21 9 70.0% -777.82 172 143 54.6%
4 37.97 Big12 35 13 72.9% -6063.70 223 252 46.9%
5 35.91 Big10 31 11 73.8% -6282.28 183 217 45.8%
6 27.28 ACC 30 18 62.5% -3120.46 259 160 61.8%
7 3.96 MtnWest 21 15 58.3% -3987.90 173 192 47.4%
8 -14.87 WAC 18 19 48.6% -3068.82 189 179 51.4%
9 -34.88 CUSA 19 29 39.6% -1382.99 277 198 58.3%
10 -67.72 MAC 16 36 30.8% -2959.08 286 234 55.0%
11 -76.48 SunBelt 8 28 22.2% 970.40 233 154 60.2%

(For the following, great & bad losses are ones that have earned or lost more than 55 points.)

#1 SEC
Great Wins: Alabama v 9-3 Virginia Tech, Mississippi State @ 9-3 Middle TN State, Georgia @ 10-2 Georgia Tech
Bad Losses: None

#2 BigEast
Great Wins: Cincy @ 8-3 Oregon St
Bad Losses: None

#3 Pac10
Great Wins: USC @ 10-2 Ohio State
Bad Losses: None

#4 Big12
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: Colorado vs 3-8 Colorado St

#5 Big10
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: None

#6 ACC
Great Wins: NC State vs 9-2 Pittsburgh, Florida State @ 10-2 BYU, Boston College vs 10-2 Central Michigan, Miami @ 8-4 Central Florida
Bad Losses: Virginia vs I-AA William & Mary, Duke vs I-AA Richmond

#7 MtnWest
Great Wins: TCU @ 8-4 Clemson
Bad Losses: New Mexico vs 3-9 New Mexico State

#8 WAC
Great Wins: Boise State @ 9-2 Oregon
Bad Losses: New Mexico State vs 4-8 UTEP, Nevada @ 3-9 Colorado State

#9 CUSA
Great Wins: Houston @ 9-3 Oklahoma State
Bad Losses: SMU @ 1-11 Washington St, Rice vs 2-10 Vanderbilt

#10 MAC
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: Ball State vs I-AA New Hampshire, Temple vs I-AA Villanova, Ball State vs 2-10 North Texas, Akron vs 4-8 Indiana

#11 SunBelt
Great Wins: None
Bad Losses: Western Kentucky vs I-AA Central Arkansas

3 comments:

PeteP said...

How is the NM loss to NM St still a bad loss, given that NM is ranked below NM St in your Achievement Rankings?

And how is Miami over Central Florida a great win for Miami, but not for Texas?

Ed Gunther said...

Hey Pete, for the rankings it doesn't matter that New Mexico is worse than New Mexico State - the only thing that matters is that New Mexico State is terrible. Are they better than 1-11 New Mexico? Yes. But are they still terrible, at 3-9? Yes. Losing at home to a 3-9 team, no matter how terrible your own team is, is a pretty bad loss. (Utah State is the only other DI-A team to lose to New Mexico State, and they lost a bunch of points because of it too.) Your own rankings/points don't matter in the great win/bad loss factoring - it's only based on your opponents rankings/points.

As far as the difference between Miami & Texas vs UCF goes, they both won handily (27-7 & 35-3, respectively), but Miami won on the road while Texas won at home. That's where the point difference is coming from. And if it makes any difference, the Miami win is right on the "great" cutoff line of 55.00 points. The Texas win earned 44.56 points.

Hope this helps.

PeteP said...

Thanks. I did not know that home/road factored into the whole so much. I am glad that it does.