Week 9 Power Rankings
Some interesting things to note looking at the power rankings this week...
• Offense: You expect Texas Tech, Houston, and GA Tech to be at the top, but Fresno State (based on a a close one with Boise State, mainly), Florida State, and Texas A&M are also in the Top 20.
• Defense: The big boys are at the top here, but Nebraska is stellar, and North Carolina, Air Force, Tennessee, and Clemson are all Top 20. Solid.
• The worst defense of the top teams belongs to to Georgia Tech, allowing 108% of their opponents average. The worst offense of the top teams belongs to LSU, still just gaining 88% of what their opponents usually allow.
• Even though they've given up mega points and yards the last few weeks, USC's D is still Top 20. They've allowed just 76% of their opponent's average offense, and have only allowed more than their opponents' average in just two games, their last two.
• TCU notched their first shutout of the season, bringing their points allowed per game under 10. Fantastic, especially considering that their opponents average 28 points per game against other teams.
• There's seven teams who are Top 20 in both offense and defense: Texas, Florida, TCU, Boise State, Alabama, Oregon and Cincinnati.
• Biggest discrepancies between offense & defense belong to North Carolina (72% O, 69% D), Florida State (140% O, 128% D), and Houston (152% O, 135% D).
| Offense vs Defense | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Conf | Team | YPG | YPG% | PPG | PPG% | dYPG | dYPG% | dPPG | dPPG% | Offense | Defense | Total |
| 8 | 0 | SEC | Florida | 421.3 | 122% | 32.3 | 145% | 224.3 | 58% | 12.1 | 41% | 133% | 49% | 136% |
| 8 | 0 | MtnWest | TCU | 438.3 | 127% | 32.3 | 132% | 233.9 | 64% | 9.7 | 38% | 129% | 51% | 126% |
| 8 | 0 | Big12 | Texas | 417.8 | 115% | 41.8 | 172% | 240.8 | 62% | 13.6 | 49% | 143% | 56% | 122% |
| 8 | 0 | SEC | Alabama | 410.1 | 116% | 31.8 | 133% | 242.4 | 63% | 11.4 | 39% | 124% | 51% | 121% |
| 8 | 0 | WAC | Boise St | 442.3 | 117% | 42.0 | 158% | 281.3 | 72% | 13.3 | 50% | 138% | 61% | 102% |
| 7 | 2 | Big10 | Ohio St | 376.1 | 100% | 31.0 | 119% | 260.0 | 69% | 11.7 | 42% | 109% | 56% | 88% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Nebraska | 367.9 | 97% | 27.6 | 108% | 266.4 | 70% | 11.3 | 40% | 103% | 55% | 84% |
| 7 | 1 | Pac10 | Oregon | 398.8 | 111% | 35.6 | 165% | 300.9 | 78% | 17.1 | 64% | 138% | 71% | 78% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Oklahoma | 403.9 | 118% | 28.7 | 127% | 310.6 | 80% | 14.4 | 50% | 123% | 65% | 77% |
| 8 | 1 | Big10 | Penn St | 413.6 | 116% | 28.0 | 115% | 260.9 | 77% | 10.1 | 47% | 115% | 62% | 76% |
| 5 | 3 | ACC | Virginia Tech | 364.5 | 110% | 30.6 | 181% | 317.3 | 87% | 19.3 | 72% | 145% | 79% | 72% |
| 6 | 3 | Big12 | Texas Tech | 477.6 | 136% | 40.5 | 187% | 374.1 | 93% | 24.8 | 90% | 161% | 92% | 71% |
| 8 | 0 | BigEast | Cincinnati | 437.6 | 121% | 34.7 | 145% | 332.9 | 92% | 14.3 | 59% | 133% | 75% | 65% |
| 9 | 0 | Big10 | Iowa | 360.9 | 101% | 26.8 | 129% | 290.1 | 75% | 15.8 | 63% | 115% | 69% | 60% |
| 4 | 4 | SEC | Tennessee | 379.8 | 114% | 29.1 | 123% | 281.6 | 76% | 17.8 | 67% | 119% | 71% | 59% |
| 5 | 3 | ACC | Clemson | 339.3 | 100% | 28.3 | 126% | 293.4 | 74% | 18.4 | 69% | 113% | 71% | 53% |
| 6 | 2 | Pac10 | USC | 426.3 | 113% | 30.0 | 126% | 331.4 | 87% | 19.1 | 66% | 119% | 76% | 50% |
| 6 | 2 | Big10 | Wisconsin | 388.0 | 115% | 27.3 | 126% | 309.1 | 82% | 22.9 | 82% | 120% | 82% | 42% |
| 7 | 1 | SEC | LSU | 325.1 | 86% | 26.4 | 91% | 293.0 | 82% | 12.1 | 48% | 88% | 65% | 41% |
| 7 | 1 | BigEast | Pittsburgh | 400.7 | 113% | 33.7 | 142% | 336.0 | 92% | 20.1 | 85% | 127% | 89% | 40% |
| 8 | 1 | ACC | Georgia Tech | 433.4 | 131% | 35.0 | 166% | 368.6 | 106% | 25.6 | 110% | 148% | 108% | 40% |
| 6 | 3 | SEC | Auburn | 428.0 | 127% | 31.9 | 152% | 371.6 | 101% | 26.1 | 98% | 140% | 100% | 40% |
| 5 | 2 | Pac10 | Arizona | 426.5 | 120% | 29.3 | 134% | 329.7 | 85% | 25.3 | 96% | 127% | 90% | 38% |
| 5 | 4 | MtnWest | Air Force | 318.4 | 92% | 20.8 | 93% | 281.3 | 79% | 15.3 | 60% | 92% | 70% | 35% |
| 5 | 3 | WAC | Fresno St | 447.4 | 129% | 33.3 | 154% | 393.0 | 112% | 25.9 | 102% | 142% | 107% | 35% |
| 6 | 2 | ACC | Miami (FL) | 376.7 | 111% | 27.3 | 136% | 362.4 | 94% | 25.1 | 88% | 124% | 91% | 34% |
| 4 | 5 | SEC | MissSt | 381.5 | 109% | 24.6 | 127% | 371.6 | 90% | 26.8 | 87% | 118% | 89% | 31% |
| 5 | 3 | SEC | Mississippi | 379.1 | 100% | 25.6 | 91% | 316.3 | 82% | 17.4 | 66% | 96% | 74% | 31% |
| 6 | 2 | MtnWest | BYU | 447.4 | 121% | 34.6 | 121% | 348.1 | 91% | 24.6 | 94% | 121% | 93% | 29% |
| 5 | 3 | Pac10 | Oregon St | 405.1 | 117% | 28.7 | 140% | 384.3 | 100% | 27.4 | 101% | 129% | 101% | 28% |
| 7 | 1 | MtnWest | Utah | 393.1 | 100% | 27.1 | 105% | 295.0 | 86% | 16.8 | 74% | 103% | 80% | 28% |
| 6 | 2 | BigEast | West Virginia | 404.6 | 112% | 29.3 | 125% | 340.6 | 98% | 22.7 | 92% | 119% | 95% | 24% |
| 6 | 3 | SEC | S Carolina | 364.9 | 107% | 19.9 | 80% | 290.8 | 78% | 19.6 | 76% | 94% | 77% | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Kansas | 433.7 | 116% | 31.1 | 132% | 360.9 | 95% | 28.3 | 107% | 124% | 101% | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Missouri | 354.0 | 98% | 23.9 | 98% | 314.1 | 79% | 24.0 | 82% | 98% | 81% | 22% |
| 6 | 3 | Indy | Navy | 351.4 | 95% | 29.4 | 124% | 315.6 | 92% | 21.4 | 86% | 109% | 89% | 22% |
| 6 | 2 | Indy | Notre Dame | 457.6 | 117% | 31.3 | 118% | 384.0 | 104% | 22.9 | 92% | 117% | 98% | 20% |
| 4 | 4 | SEC | Arkansas | 415.6 | 130% | 34.1 | 147% | 440.3 | 120% | 29.9 | 119% | 138% | 119% | 19% |
| 6 | 2 | Big12 | Oklahoma St | 373.3 | 100% | 31.0 | 114% | 354.3 | 91% | 25.0 | 89% | 107% | 90% | 18% |
| 5 | 3 | Big12 | Texas A&M | 490.5 | 124% | 35.8 | 137% | 400.6 | 105% | 30.0 | 120% | 130% | 113% | 18% |
| 7 | 1 | CUSA | Houston | 566.9 | 157% | 39.7 | 148% | 490.1 | 136% | 31.3 | 134% | 152% | 135% | 17% |
| 6 | 3 | ACC | Boston Coll | 325.5 | 85% | 26.1 | 107% | 354.6 | 90% | 21.9 | 77% | 96% | 84% | 16% |
| 3 | 5 | ACC | Virginia | 278.9 | 78% | 22.4 | 99% | 332.1 | 86% | 21.1 | 70% | 89% | 78% | 15% |
| 5 | 3 | Pac10 | Stanford | 435.3 | 118% | 31.9 | 117% | 369.3 | 107% | 22.4 | 101% | 117% | 104% | 14% |
| 3 | 5 | Pac10 | Washington | 365.1 | 110% | 24.6 | 123% | 423.5 | 106% | 29.8 | 101% | 116% | 103% | 13% |
| 3 | 6 | Big10 | Purdue | 372.1 | 107% | 24.6 | 122% | 363.1 | 95% | 28.0 | 107% | 114% | 101% | 13% |
| 4 | 4 | ACC | Florida St | 449.9 | 133% | 33.6 | 148% | 445.7 | 124% | 32.7 | 132% | 140% | 128% | 12% |
| 6 | 2 | BigEast | S Florida | 361.8 | 94% | 24.5 | 96% | 354.3 | 93% | 22.3 | 77% | 95% | 85% | 11% |
| 4 | 4 | SEC | Georgia | 328.8 | 102% | 25.8 | 136% | 366.5 | 101% | 29.4 | 115% | 119% | 108% | 11% |
| 5 | 3 | ACC | Duke | 387.0 | 113% | 28.5 | 117% | 355.2 | 104% | 25.8 | 104% | 115% | 104% | 11% |
| 4 | 5 | Big10 | Michigan St | 386.9 | 109% | 26.0 | 114% | 370.6 | 100% | 25.6 | 104% | 112% | 102% | 10% |
| 6 | 2 | MAC | Temple | 292.9 | 82% | 26.4 | 99% | 304.6 | 85% | 19.4 | 81% | 90% | 83% | 10% |
| 4 | 4 | SEC | Kentucky | 333.6 | 101% | 25.9 | 112% | 369.9 | 97% | 24.0 | 99% | 106% | 98% | 9% |
| 7 | 2 | MAC | C Michigan | 399.9 | 105% | 28.4 | 98% | 365.0 | 103% | 19.0 | 85% | 101% | 94% | 8% |
| 5 | 3 | WAC | Nevada | 504.4 | 128% | 34.6 | 120% | 423.3 | 110% | 30.1 | 125% | 124% | 117% | 6% |
| 5 | 3 | ACC | N Carolina | 279.0 | 75% | 16.7 | 70% | 299.5 | 77% | 19.0 | 62% | 72% | 69% | 6% |
| 4 | 4 | BigEast | Connecticut | 390.0 | 111% | 24.3 | 104% | 348.0 | 102% | 22.1 | 101% | 108% | 102% | 6% |
| 6 | 2 | BigEast | Rutgers | 312.2 | 87% | 24.0 | 104% | 366.8 | 100% | 22.2 | 81% | 95% | 91% | 5% |
| 6 | 2 | Pac10 | California | 415.7 | 114% | 30.0 | 119% | 395.9 | 121% | 24.3 | 103% | 116% | 112% | 5% |
| 5 | 4 | Big12 | Iowa St | 370.5 | 109% | 21.3 | 92% | 399.5 | 111% | 22.0 | 84% | 101% | 97% | 3% |
| 6 | 3 | CUSA | Sou. Miss | 403.3 | 101% | 31.9 | 119% | 386.0 | 103% | 26.6 | 111% | 110% | 107% | 3% |
| 6 | 2 | SunBelt | Troy | 455.8 | 115% | 30.3 | 103% | 386.3 | 102% | 26.9 | 112% | 109% | 107% | 2% |
| 3 | 5 | MAC | Bowl Green | 404.1 | 117% | 23.6 | 108% | 388.4 | 109% | 28.4 | 114% | 112% | 111% | 1% |
| 3 | 5 | Pac10 | UCLA | 305.9 | 84% | 19.9 | 82% | 355.1 | 89% | 23.0 | 77% | 83% | 83% | -0% |
| 5 | 4 | Big12 | Kansas St | 337.3 | 89% | 24.9 | 115% | 394.1 | 105% | 27.3 | 102% | 102% | 103% | -1% |
| 5 | 3 | MAC | N Illinois | 335.7 | 86% | 27.1 | 91% | 350.7 | 94% | 19.7 | 88% | 88% | 91% | -3% |
| 4 | 4 | CUSA | SMU | 380.1 | 98% | 25.9 | 115% | 373.4 | 98% | 30.3 | 122% | 106% | 110% | -4% |
| 5 | 4 | Big10 | Minnesota | 316.3 | 96% | 23.4 | 104% | 402.2 | 109% | 26.1 | 102% | 100% | 106% | -5% |
| 5 | 3 | CUSA | UCF | 344.3 | 85% | 23.6 | 77% | 337.0 | 94% | 18.6 | 78% | 81% | 86% | -7% |
| 4 | 4 | Pac10 | Arizona St | 348.7 | 84% | 22.6 | 74% | 333.0 | 88% | 21.3 | 81% | 79% | 84% | -8% |
| 4 | 5 | ACC | Wake Forest | 396.4 | 113% | 22.6 | 86% | 372.4 | 107% | 25.4 | 111% | 100% | 109% | -9% |
| 3 | 5 | WAC | LA Tech | 353.9 | 87% | 24.0 | 79% | 387.0 | 95% | 25.3 | 91% | 83% | 93% | -12% |
| 2 | 6 | WAC | Utah St | 411.7 | 111% | 23.3 | 89% | 427.0 | 105% | 30.7 | 120% | 100% | 112% | -13% |
| 6 | 3 | MAC | Ohio | 301.0 | 81% | 24.0 | 88% | 342.9 | 98% | 21.9 | 93% | 84% | 96% | -14% |
| 5 | 4 | Big10 | Michigan | 360.8 | 97% | 27.6 | 119% | 402.9 | 111% | 27.5 | 132% | 108% | 122% | -14% |
| 3 | 5 | ACC | NC State | 385.0 | 108% | 25.8 | 111% | 414.0 | 110% | 35.7 | 139% | 110% | 125% | -15% |
| 3 | 5 | MAC | Buffalo | 397.0 | 110% | 20.7 | 86% | 372.6 | 109% | 28.9 | 117% | 98% | 113% | -15% |
| 4 | 4 | CUSA | Tulsa | 371.1 | 95% | 23.7 | 80% | 359.9 | 100% | 23.0 | 104% | 88% | 102% | -16% |
| 2 | 6 | BigEast | Louisville | 360.4 | 103% | 18.6 | 85% | 410.4 | 109% | 30.4 | 111% | 94% | 110% | -16% |
| 5 | 3 | SunBelt | Mid Tenn St | 400.8 | 98% | 27.0 | 78% | 376.5 | 100% | 25.6 | 106% | 88% | 103% | -17% |
| 3 | 6 | MtnWest | Colorado St | 344.5 | 100% | 22.1 | 93% | 414.5 | 110% | 31.8 | 119% | 97% | 115% | -18% |
| 5 | 3 | CUSA | E Carolina | 355.9 | 94% | 26.4 | 97% | 373.6 | 115% | 22.4 | 113% | 95% | 114% | -19% |
| 2 | 5 | SunBelt | Arkansas St | 319.3 | 86% | 17.8 | 77% | 387.7 | 104% | 23.2 | 92% | 82% | 98% | -21% |
| 5 | 4 | Big10 | Northwestern | 378.4 | 106% | 23.0 | 89% | 367.1 | 110% | 26.1 | 125% | 97% | 118% | -21% |
| 7 | 2 | WAC | Idaho | 433.0 | 108% | 31.9 | 115% | 417.8 | 126% | 31.1 | 142% | 112% | 134% | -22% |
| 2 | 6 | Big10 | Illinois | 346.4 | 104% | 15.1 | 73% | 412.9 | 113% | 27.1 | 106% | 88% | 110% | -23% |
| 4 | 4 | SunBelt | LA-Monroe | 364.0 | 98% | 22.7 | 92% | 401.4 | 106% | 35.0 | 133% | 95% | 120% | -25% |
| 3 | 5 | Big12 | Baylor | 314.0 | 90% | 15.9 | 76% | 404.7 | 110% | 25.3 | 100% | 83% | 105% | -25% |
| 3 | 5 | BigEast | Syracuse | 302.3 | 85% | 18.9 | 81% | 353.6 | 96% | 27.9 | 115% | 83% | 106% | -26% |
| 2 | 6 | Big12 | Colorado | 286.1 | 77% | 21.8 | 84% | 381.6 | 100% | 29.5 | 109% | 81% | 104% | -28% |
| 2 | 6 | ACC | Maryland | 319.1 | 88% | 19.3 | 83% | 373.4 | 101% | 31.1 | 128% | 86% | 115% | -32% |
| 2 | 5 | SunBelt | Florida Atl | 452.4 | 129% | 26.7 | 94% | 429.7 | 124% | 34.3 | 164% | 111% | 144% | -33% |
| 4 | 5 | Big10 | Indiana | 348.4 | 96% | 24.3 | 107% | 405.0 | 127% | 30.1 | 141% | 101% | 134% | -33% |
| 4 | 5 | MAC | W Michigan | 379.6 | 100% | 25.8 | 90% | 439.4 | 124% | 29.4 | 134% | 95% | 129% | -34% |
| 5 | 4 | CUSA | Marshall | 318.0 | 80% | 19.5 | 69% | 398.1 | 114% | 20.1 | 87% | 75% | 100% | -34% |
| 4 | 4 | MtnWest | San Diego St | 332.0 | 89% | 25.0 | 91% | 360.0 | 108% | 28.0 | 139% | 90% | 123% | -35% |
| 2 | 6 | WAC | Hawaii | 434.7 | 105% | 21.0 | 68% | 444.6 | 117% | 34.7 | 126% | 87% | 122% | -37% |
| 3 | 5 | CUSA | UTEP | 378.1 | 93% | 26.0 | 94% | 470.1 | 125% | 33.9 | 138% | 93% | 131% | -39% |
| 2 | 6 | SunBelt | North Texas | 426.0 | 109% | 30.8 | 103% | 433.1 | 117% | 39.0 | 173% | 106% | 145% | -39% |
| 1 | 8 | MAC | Ball St | 332.4 | 90% | 21.1 | 74% | 389.8 | 109% | 29.6 | 127% | 82% | 118% | -39% |
| 5 | 4 | MAC | Kent St | 338.6 | 85% | 21.8 | 76% | 365.8 | 110% | 23.1 | 122% | 81% | 116% | -40% |
| 4 | 5 | MAC | Toledo | 440.6 | 121% | 28.6 | 108% | 424.9 | 131% | 37.4 | 180% | 114% | 156% | -42% |
| 4 | 4 | MtnWest | Wyoming | 295.4 | 81% | 16.7 | 56% | 365.9 | 103% | 23.6 | 92% | 69% | 97% | -43% |
| 2 | 6 | CUSA | Memphis | 355.3 | 93% | 18.3 | 75% | 418.0 | 118% | 32.7 | 136% | 84% | 127% | -47% |
| 2 | 7 | SEC | Vanderbilt | 295.1 | 84% | 14.9 | 57% | 380.3 | 109% | 24.8 | 103% | 70% | 106% | -48% |
| 3 | 5 | CUSA | UAB | 369.4 | 93% | 24.8 | 81% | 475.5 | 129% | 33.4 | 141% | 87% | 135% | -50% |
| 1 | 8 | MAC | Miami (OH) | 329.3 | 89% | 13.8 | 56% | 378.4 | 102% | 33.2 | 125% | 73% | 114% | -51% |
| 3 | 6 | MtnWest | UNLV | 343.6 | 93% | 22.5 | 81% | 477.6 | 120% | 37.6 | 154% | 87% | 137% | -52% |
| 3 | 5 | Indy | Army | 278.8 | 72% | 16.9 | 58% | 287.4 | 89% | 22.6 | 120% | 65% | 105% | -59% |
| 2 | 6 | SunBelt | Florida Intl | 330.5 | 81% | 24.4 | 84% | 476.1 | 137% | 32.3 | 141% | 83% | 139% | -60% |
| 1 | 6 | WAC | San Jose St | 258.3 | 72% | 14.5 | 63% | 476.3 | 114% | 39.5 | 127% | 67% | 121% | -70% |
| 1 | 7 | MAC | Akron | 251.3 | 69% | 13.9 | 60% | 381.9 | 108% | 30.3 | 130% | 65% | 119% | -73% |
| 4 | 4 | SunBelt | LA-Lafayette | 323.1 | 78% | 19.1 | 53% | 415.9 | 116% | 32.6 | 132% | 66% | 124% | -76% |
| 0 | 8 | MAC | E Michigan | 276.0 | 74% | 16.9 | 63% | 423.1 | 125% | 37.4 | 161% | 69% | 143% | -89% |
| 1 | 7 | Pac10 | Wash St | 280.0 | 73% | 15.0 | 57% | 511.1 | 129% | 37.4 | 141% | 65% | 135% | -89% |
| 0 | 8 | MtnWest | New Mexico | 306.4 | 81% | 15.5 | 59% | 413.5 | 119% | 35.5 | 175% | 70% | 147% | -90% |
| 2 | 6 | CUSA | Tulane | 297.3 | 79% | 9.3 | 36% | 405.0 | 106% | 38.1 | 148% | 58% | 127% | -101% |
| 0 | 8 | SunBelt | W Kentucky | 309.3 | 80% | 22.4 | 77% | 534.3 | 156% | 47.6 | 205% | 78% | 180% | -108% |
| 0 | 8 | CUSA | Rice | 300.3 | 79% | 14.9 | 57% | 469.4 | 136% | 45.5 | 203% | 68% | 169% | -116% |
| 3 | 6 | WAC | New Mex St | 224.4 | 53% | 10.6 | 32% | 404.3 | 110% | 31.4 | 128% | 42% | 119% | -155% |
3 comments:
Very interesting numbers as always. I find it fascinating how some losing teams like Mississippi State really are no where near as bad as their records, while teams such as Idaho are much worse.
I really like the idea of these ranking but I think the way you calculate the total penalizes teams with strong defenses. The ceiling on offensive percentage performance is infinite while the defensive percentage floor is only 0. I think the defensive percentages should be inverted for the purpose of finding the total. For example, I'd think of Oklahoma's defensive percentage of 65% as 153% where their opponents typically get 153% more offensive output against non-Oklahoma opponents. This makes their total 23% + 53% rather than 23% + 35% which is enough to pass Virginia Tech (even after adjusting Tech's score too).
Admittedly the rankings are defensive heavy as is, but I think it would be appropriate to find the total by combining equivalent percentages. 51% defense can be more appropriately shown as 196% for the level at which offenses performed against other opponents.
After going back and checking how things fall, I think you're right Greg - at least regarding the part about defenses getting penalized a bit. If an offense achieves 2x more than what their opponent usually gives up, it's 200%, but if a defense gives up 2x less than what their opponent usually achieves, it's only 50%. Basically, it's not an equal amount on both sides of the 100% normal line. 125% isn't the opposite of 75%, 150% isn't the opposite of 50%, and so on.
But realistically, this only really matters when we're combining them to look at total power. If you're at 150% Off. & 110% D for +40%, that's not the same as 100% Off & 60% D, even though that totals +40% with easy math too. Long story short, I've reconfigured the total column so that both offense and defense have equal bearing on the total power. That's why they no longer add up exactly - anything under 100% is intentionally curved because of the infinite and percentage floor problem you mention.
As far as just flipping the defensive statistics around so that they're positive, for me that's just a cosmetic thing that I think keeps things more simple. Since on offense more is better, you want your percentage to be high, while on defense less is better so you want your percentage to be low. The other reason I like that setup is because it keeps the focus on what the team in question is able to do, instead of flipping it to what their opponents do against their own other opponents. I get where you're going, and the idea has merit, but to me it just fits better that way.
Thanks for the tip about the infinite/floor problem. Much obliged.
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