Sunday, September 6, 2009

Rankings: Week 1

So what did we learn about the conference race this week? Not a whole lot. About the best we can do is to say that the ACC is pretty much out of it. Other than that, there were just too many throwaway games against I-AA teams and cupcakes.

Week 1 Conference Achievement Rankings
Rank Avg Points Conference non-conf W non-conf L non-conf W% non-conf oPts non-conf oW non-conf oL non-conf oW%
1 23.98 SEC 11 1 91.7% -415.90 1 11 8.3%
2 21.90 Big10 10 1 90.9% -367.28 1 10 9.1%
3 17.48 Big12 10 2 83.3% -337.16 2 10 16.7%
4 12.72 BigEast 5 1 83.3% -228.82 1 5 16.7%
5 11.99 MtnWest 6 2 75.0% -203.24 2 6 25.0%
6 9.89 Pac10 6 2 75.0% -163.15 2 6 25.0%
7 7.16 CUSA 6 2 75.0% -274.29 2 6 25.0%
8 -3.46 WAC 3 4 42.9% -32.48 4 3 57.1%
9 -5.77 SunBelt 3 5 37.5% -12.46 5 3 62.5%
10 -7.23 ACC 4 6 40.0% -87.71 6 4 60.0%
11 -16.66 MAC 3 10 23.1% 145.30 10 3 76.9%

#1 SEC: 11-1 is stellar, and the SEC's one loss won't hurt too much because it was to a team, Oklahoma State, that should be in the top ten for most of this season. But they won't get many points in the long run for beating good teams. The conference's best victory was over Virginia Tech, but of their other 10 wins, 4 were against I-AA teams, 4 were against weak non-BCS teams, and the other 2 were close calls at Washington and NC State.

#2 Big10: the Big10's only loss was to Missouri, which could hurt the conference if the Tigers don't do well in the Big12. And it doesn't look like any of their wins this week will help out in the long run - 4 were over I-AA teams, 4 were over teams from the MAC, and Ohio State and Minnesota squeaked by Navy and Syracuse, respectively. They're gonna need some other wins to boost their profile.

#3 Big12: the Big12's big win of the weekend was Oklahoma State's over Georgia, a solid one which should pay dividends in the upcoming weeks. Wins over the ACC and Big10 might help, depending on how Wake and Illinois do. The loss to BYU won't be too bad, but losing to Colorado State might hurt them later on. The 3 wins over the non-BCS teams and 4 wins over I-AA squads aren't worth much, now or later.

#4 BigEast: the BigEast's one loss was to Minnesota, which won't help, and their 5 wins were over 4 I-AA teams and Ohio from the MAC. Bleh.

#5 MtnWest: the MtnWest have apparently set their sights on the Big12 this year, notching a huge win over Oklahoma and another decent one against Colorado. A couple of tough losses to Texas A&M and UCLA might hurt them later, but maybe not. A win against Utah State and 3 against I-AA cupcakes won't help.

#6 Pac10: the Pac10's two losses probably won't hurt them too much, since LSU and Boise State should both get to ten wins this year. Of their 6 non-conference wins this week, 2 were against I-AA teams, 1 each against the MAC, WAC, and MountainWest (which is a plus, considering last year), and 1 against the ACC. Nothing too great. *(But, with the win over Maryland, the Pac10 pulled to .500 or better against all other conferences during the BCS era. So that's something.)

#7 CUSA: the CUSA's wins came against I-AA teams, and their losses came to I-A teams. Yuck.

#8 WAC: the WAC's one good win was against Oregon, who might implode this season. Other than that, they got pasted by 3 BCS teams and Utah, but beat 2 I-AA teams. Yeah, Boise State probably doesn't have anything to worry about from this bunch.

#9 SunBelt: the SunBelt beat 2 I-AA teams and Ball State from the MAC, but lost to Bowling Green from the MAC as well as 4 BCS teams.

#10 ACC: the ACC is in trouble this year. Sure Virginia Tech's loss to Alabama shouldn't be too bad in the long run, and Maryland's loss to Cal shouldn't hurt to much, but two losses to I-AA teams by Duke & Virginia? Damn. Those hurt right now, and it's only gonna get worse as the season goes on.

#11 MAC: the MAC, bless their hearts. 7 Losses to BCS teams, losses to non-BCS North Texas & Army, and a loss to I-AA Villanova. Sigh.

As is par for the first week, we need to go over the particulars of my rankings.

My rankings measure achievement, not power, potential, preparedness, or petunias. And so far, these teams at the very top have achieved the most - they all went on the road and beat someone by a significant margin of victory. The teams at the very bottom lost at home by a lot. Simple, right? The computer doesn't care that Florida would destroy all but a handful of the teams out there - it only sees that they mauled Charleston Southern, a I-AA team, at home.

And just a heads up - next week, Kentucky is going to drop down from #T-1, probably out of the Top 20. Why? Because they're not playing. If you don't play, you're not achieving anything - the only way to earn (meager) points if you don't play that weekend is if the teams you've already played win, boosting the points you earn from beating them or reducing the points you lose from losing to them. Though this makes for jumps and drop offs, it works itself out at the end of the season when all the teams have played the same amount of games.

As usual, the columns are sortable, which means that we don't need an extra table for Strength of Schedule - just click on the "oPts" (opponent's points) header to see how good each team's competition this season has been.

Week 1 Achievement Rankings
Rank Conf Team Pts W L W% oPts oW oL oW% rank∆
1 CUSA Tulsa 33.35 1 0 100.0% -82.28 5 6 45.5% -
1 Pac10 Stanford 33.35 1 0 100.0% 32.56 7 5 58.3% -
1 SEC Kentucky 33.35 1 0 100.0% 71.01 8 4 66.7% -
1 SEC Mississippi 33.35 1 0 100.0% 155.95 9 1 90.0% -
5 ACC Miami (FL) 33.35 1 0 100.0% -91.27 5 6 45.5% -
5 BigEast Cincinnati 33.35 1 0 100.0% 28.29 7 4 63.6% -
7 Indy Army 33.07 1 0 100.0% -149.77 4 7 36.4% -
7 SunBelt North Texas 33.07 1 0 100.0% -91.23 4 7 36.4% -
7 WAC Idaho 33.07 1 0 100.0% -117.99 4 8 33.3% -
10 BigEast Connecticut 32.79 1 0 100.0% 90.97 8 3 72.7% -
10 MAC Buffalo 32.79 1 0 100.0% -141.51 4 7 36.4% -
10 MtnWest Colorado St 32.79 1 0 100.0% -8.32 6 5 54.5% -
10 SEC LSU 32.79 1 0 100.0% 93.61 8 4 66.7% -
10 SEC South Carolina 32.79 1 0 100.0% 106.74 8 3 72.7% -
15 Big12 Baylor 32.65 1 0 100.0% 127.50 9 3 75.0% -
16 Big10 Minnesota 32.51 1 0 100.0% 145.79 9 2 81.8% -
17 ACC Clemson 27.02 1 0 100.0% -129.31 4 7 36.4% -
17 Big10 Michigan 27.02 1 0 100.0% 92.63 8 3 72.7% -
17 Big10 Penn St 27.02 1 0 100.0% 36.36 7 4 63.6% -
17 Big10 Purdue 27.02 1 0 100.0% 107.96 8 4 66.7% -
17 Big12 Missouri 27.02 1 0 100.0% 99.41 8 3 72.7% -
17 Big12 Nebraska 27.02 1 0 100.0% 98.72 8 4 66.7% -
17 Big12 Texas 27.02 1 0 100.0% 95.76 8 4 66.7% -
17 Big12 Texas A&M 27.02 1 0 100.0% 101.43 8 4 66.7% -
17 CUSA UAB 27.02 1 0 100.0% 39.46 7 5 58.3% -
17 Indy Notre Dame 27.02 1 0 100.0% 103.30 8 4 66.7% -
17 MAC Bowling Green 27.02 1 0 100.0% -70.49 5 7 41.7% -
17 MtnWest Utah 27.02 1 0 100.0% 25.16 6 5 54.5% -
17 Pac10 California 27.02 1 0 100.0% 47.04 7 4 63.6% -
17 Pac10 UCLA 27.02 1 0 100.0% 96.95 8 4 66.7% -
17 Pac10 USC 27.02 1 0 100.0% 98.03 8 4 66.7% -
17 SEC Auburn 27.02 1 0 100.0% 112.19 8 3 72.7% -
17 SEC Tennessee 27.02 1 0 100.0% 110.68 8 4 66.7% -
34 Big12 Oklahoma St 26.74 1 0 100.0% 46.64 7 4 63.6% -
34 Pac10 Arizona 26.74 1 0 100.0% 40.52 7 4 63.6% -
34 SEC Alabama 26.74 1 0 100.0% 213.28 9 1 90.0% -
34 WAC Boise St 26.74 1 0 100.0% -115.12 5 8 38.5% -
38 Big10 Ohio St 26.46 1 0 100.0% 103.86 8 4 66.7% -
38 Big10 Wisconsin 26.46 1 0 100.0% 181.55 10 2 83.3% -
40 MtnWest Brigham Young 26.32 1 0 100.0% -38.88 5 6 45.5% -
41 Big10 Iowa 25.39 1 0 100.0% 236.68 11 1 91.7% -
41 CUSA Marshall 25.39 1 0 100.0% -2.13 7 5 58.3% -
43 Big10 Indiana 25.38 1 0 100.0% 11.10 7 5 58.3% -
43 Big12 Kansas St 25.38 1 0 100.0% 63.80 8 3 72.7% -
43 CUSA East Carolina 25.38 1 0 100.0% 68.59 8 4 66.7% -
43 CUSA SMU 25.38 1 0 100.0% -73.55 5 6 45.5% -
43 CUSA UCF 25.38 1 0 100.0% 70.98 8 4 66.7% -
43 MtnWest Wyoming 25.38 1 0 100.0% -6.95 6 5 54.5% -
43 WAC Hawaii 25.38 1 0 100.0% -121.33 5 8 38.5% -
50 BigEast West Virginia 25.37 1 0 100.0% 64.28 8 4 66.7% -
51 ACC Boston College 25.36 1 0 100.0% -167.90 4 8 33.3% -
51 ACC Georgia Tech 25.36 1 0 100.0% -110.97 5 7 41.7% -
51 ACC North Carolina 25.36 1 0 100.0% -108.55 5 6 45.5% -
51 Big10 Michigan St 25.36 1 0 100.0% 79.49 8 4 66.7% -
51 Big10 Northwestern 25.36 1 0 100.0% 5.60 7 5 58.3% -
51 Big12 Iowa St 25.36 1 0 100.0% 184.98 10 2 83.3% -
51 Big12 Kansas 25.36 1 0 100.0% -1.44 7 5 58.3% -
51 Big12 Texas Tech 25.36 1 0 100.0% 78.73 8 4 66.7% -
51 BigEast Louisville 25.36 1 0 100.0% 130.12 9 3 75.0% -
51 BigEast Pittsburgh 25.36 1 0 100.0% 19.49 7 5 58.3% -
51 BigEast South Florida 25.36 1 0 100.0% -65.50 6 6 50.0% -
51 CUSA Houston 25.36 1 0 100.0% 2.73 7 5 58.3% -
51 CUSA Southern Miss 25.36 1 0 100.0% 52.75 8 4 66.7% -
51 MAC Kent St 25.36 1 0 100.0% -102.14 5 7 41.7% -
51 MtnWest Air Force 25.36 1 0 100.0% 64.46 7 4 63.6% -
51 MtnWest UNLV 25.36 1 0 100.0% 48.97 7 4 63.6% -
51 Pac10 Arizona St 25.36 1 0 100.0% -37.83 6 6 50.0% -
51 Pac10 Oregon St 25.36 1 0 100.0% 74.86 8 4 66.7% -
51 SEC Arkansas 25.36 1 0 100.0% 86.10 8 4 66.7% -
51 SEC Florida 25.36 1 0 100.0% 57.36 7 4 63.6% -
51 SEC Mississippi St 25.36 1 0 100.0% 195.72 10 2 83.3% -
51 SEC Vanderbilt 25.36 1 0 100.0% 157.28 9 3 75.0% -
51 SunBelt Arkansas St 25.36 1 0 100.0% -56.75 5 6 45.5% -
51 SunBelt LA-Lafayette 25.36 1 0 100.0% -49.33 5 6 45.5% -
51 WAC Fresno St 25.36 1 0 100.0% -81.13 5 7 41.7% -
76 MtnWest TCU 0.00 0 0 0.0% 94.69 8 3 72.7% -
76 SunBelt Florida Intl 0.00 0 0 0.0% -60.50 5 7 41.7% -
78 Big12 Oklahoma -26.34 0 1 0.0% 252.39 11 1 91.7% -
79 Indy Navy -26.50 0 1 0.0% 9.59 7 5 58.3% -
79 MAC Northern Illinois -26.50 0 1 0.0% -184.44 3 8 27.3% -
81 ACC Virginia Tech -26.83 0 1 0.0% 83.58 8 4 66.7% -
81 MAC Central Michigan -26.83 0 1 0.0% -94.22 5 7 41.7% -
81 Pac10 Oregon -26.83 0 1 0.0% 206.33 10 2 83.3% -
81 SEC Georgia -26.83 0 1 0.0% 276.52 11 0 100.0% -
85 ACC Maryland -27.15 0 1 0.0% -207.51 3 8 27.3% -
85 Big10 Illinois -27.15 0 1 0.0% 271.87 11 0 100.0% -
85 CUSA Rice -27.15 0 1 0.0% 146.50 9 3 75.0% -
85 MAC Akron -27.15 0 1 0.0% -78.60 5 6 45.5% -
85 MAC Toledo -27.15 0 1 0.0% -166.97 3 8 27.3% -
85 MAC Western Michigan -27.15 0 1 0.0% -74.42 5 6 45.5% -
85 MtnWest New Mexico -27.15 0 1 0.0% 187.66 9 2 81.8% -
85 MtnWest San Diego St -27.15 0 1 0.0% 132.00 8 2 80.0% -
85 SunBelt Florida Atl -27.15 0 1 0.0% 87.42 7 4 63.6% -
85 SunBelt LA-Monroe -27.15 0 1 0.0% 30.91 6 4 60.0% -
85 SunBelt Mid Tenn St -27.15 0 1 0.0% -33.07 5 6 45.5% -
85 SunBelt Troy -27.15 0 1 0.0% 79.97 7 4 63.6% -
85 SunBelt Western Kentucky -27.15 0 1 0.0% -55.46 5 6 45.5% -
85 WAC Louisiana Tech -27.15 0 1 0.0% -27.96 6 6 50.0% -
85 WAC Nevada -27.15 0 1 0.0% 108.14 8 4 66.7% -
85 WAC San Jose St -27.15 0 1 0.0% 53.31 7 4 63.6% -
85 WAC Utah St -27.15 0 1 0.0% 46.28 7 4 63.6% -
102 BigEast Syracuse -32.51 0 1 0.0% 161.83 9 2 81.8% -
103 ACC Wake Forest -32.68 0 1 0.0% -7.67 6 5 54.5% -
104 ACC NC State -32.84 0 1 0.0% -79.04 5 5 50.0% -
104 Big12 Colorado -32.84 0 1 0.0% 267.34 11 1 91.7% -
104 CUSA UTEP -32.84 0 1 0.0% 94.35 8 4 66.7% -
104 MAC Ohio -32.84 0 1 0.0% -6.58 6 5 54.5% -
104 Pac10 Washington -32.84 0 1 0.0% 224.45 10 2 83.3% -
109 MAC Ball St -33.17 0 1 0.0% -117.78 4 7 36.4% -
109 MAC Eastern Michigan -33.17 0 1 0.0% -66.07 5 7 41.7% -
109 WAC New Mexico St -33.17 0 1 0.0% -88.75 5 7 41.7% -
112 ACC Florida St -33.50 0 1 0.0% 63.63 8 4 66.7% -
112 BigEast Rutgers -33.50 0 1 0.0% 80.97 7 2 77.8% -
114 CUSA Memphis -33.50 0 1 0.0% 157.61 9 2 81.8% -
114 CUSA Tulane -33.50 0 1 0.0% 162.39 9 2 81.8% -
114 MAC Miami (OH) -33.50 0 1 0.0% 56.03 7 5 58.3% -
114 Pac10 Washington St -33.50 0 1 0.0% 210.01 10 2 83.3% -
118 MAC Temple -34.30 0 1 0.0% -99.30 5 7 41.7% -
119 ACC Duke -34.75 0 1 0.0% -46.72 6 5 54.5% -
120 ACC Virginia -35.65 0 1 0.0% 94.39 8 3 72.7% -

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