the 1999 Season

Versions / 1998 / 1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / Conclusions

In 1999, Version B came into being, producing the following official results in December:

Version B: 1999
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	Comp.Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	TOTAL
1	Florida State	1	1	1	1	6	0.24	0	2.24
2	Virginia Tech	2	2	2	2	53	2.12	0	6.12
3	Nebraska	3	3	3	2.86	14	0.56	1	7.42
4	Alabama	5	6	5.5	4.57	1	0.04	2	12.11
5	Tennessee	6	5	5.5	5.57	16	0.64	2	13.71
6	Kansas State	7	7	7	4.71	63	2.52	1	15.23
7	Wisconsin	4	4	4	7.71	75	3	2	16.71
8	Michigan	8	8	8	8	2	0.08	2	18.08
9	Michigan State	9	9	9	7.71	10	0.4	2	19.11
10	Florida	10	10	10	9.86	5	0.2	3	23.06
11	Penn State	13	17	15	10.43	8	0.32	3	28.75
12	Marshall	11	11	11	16.43	93	3.72	0	31.15
13	Minnesota	12	12	12	16.57	51	2.04	3	33.61
14	Texas A&M	18	13	15.5	15.14	28	1.12	3	34.76
15	Texas	14	18	16	14.29	13	0.52	4	34.81

Not too bad - our first instance of the BCS pairing up the two main undefeated teams at the end of the season. So, let's take a look at what would have happened if the BCS committee hadn't changed from Version A to Version B. Version A would've looked like...

Version A: 1999
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	A&H	JS	NYT	Comp.Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	TOTAL
1	Florida State	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	6	0.24	0	2.24
2	Virginia Tech	2	2	2	3	2	2	2.33	53	2.12	0	6.45
3	Nebraska	3	3	3	2	3	3.75	2.92	14	0.56	1	7.48
4	Alabama	5	6	5.5	4	5.25	3	4.08	1	0.04	2	11.62
5	Tennessee	6	5	5.5	7.5	5	5	5.83	16	0.64	2	13.97
6	Kansas State	7	7	7	5	4	6	5	63	2.52	1	15.52
8	Michigan	8	8	8	6	9	7	7.33	2	0.08	2	17.41
7	Wisconsin	4	4	4	11.25	7	8	8.75	75	3	2	17.75
9	Michigan State	9	9	9	7	8	10	8.33	10	0.4	2	19.73
10	Florida	10	10	10	9	11	15	11.67	5	0.2	3	24.87
12	Marshall	11	11	11	15	13	11	13	93	3.72	0	27.72
11	Penn State	13	17	15	11	10	15.75	12.25	8	0.32	3	30.57
14	Texas A&M	18	13	15.5	14	17	15	15.33	28	1.12	3	34.95
13	Minnesota	12	12	12	21	15	21.5	19.17	51	2.04	3	36.21
15	Texas	14	18	16	13	14	20.25	15.75	13	0.52	4	36.27

So as you can see, no real major changes. A few flips after #6 Kansas State, but nothing that would've had any impact on the BCS Bowls. Now for a Projection of Version C, where things start to get dicey...

Version C: 1999
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo-Sub	Hi-Sub	Hi-QW	Lo-QW	Lo-Tot	Hi-Tot
1	Florida State	1	1	1	0.24	0	2.24	2.24	-0.6	-0.6	1.64	1.64
2	Virginia Tech	2	2	2.17	2.12	0	6.12	6.29			6.12	6.29
3	Nebraska	3	2.83	3.17	0.56	1	7.39	7.73	-1.3	-1.3	6.09	6.43
4	Alabama	5.5	4.33	4.83	0.04	2	11.87	12.37	-0.6	-0.6	11.27	11.77
5	Tennessee	5.5	5.83	6.33	0.64	2	13.97	14.47	-1.2	-1.2	12.77	13.27
6	Kansas State	7	4.67	5.33	2.52	1	15.19	15.85	-0.2	-0.1	14.99	15.75
7	Wisconsin	4	9	9.83	3.00	2	18	18.83	-1.1	-1.0	16.9	17.83
8	Michigan	8	7.5	8.33	0.08	2	17.58	18.41	-1.4	-1.1	16.18	17.31
9	Michigan State	9	7.17	7.67	0.40	2	18.57	19.07	-1.4	-1.2	17.17	17.87
10	Florida	10	9.17	10	0.20	3	22.37	23.2	-1.1	-1.1	21.27	22.1
11	Penn State	15	10.5	10.67	0.32	3	28.82	28.99			28.82	28.99
12	Marshall	11	13.67	17.67	3.72	0	28.39	32.39			28.39	32.39
13	Minnesota	12	16.17	17.5	2.04	3	33.21	34.54	-0.5	-0.4	32.71	34.14
14	Texas A&M	15.5	15.33	16.17	1.12	3	34.95	35.79	-0.2	-0.1	34.75	35.69
15	Texas	16	14.33	15	0.52	4	34.85	35.52	-1.3	-1.3	33.55	34.22

Looking at Version C, it's mathematically possible that Nebraska would get into the National Championship game instead of Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech went undefeated, sure, but Nebraska had 3 Top-15 victories, giving them a Quality Win score of -1.3, more than negating their loss.

If Virginia Tech finished 1 or 2 in the missing rankings, their total is 6.12. A finish 3 or above gives them a total of 6.29.
If Nebraska finished 1 or 2 in the missing rankings, their total is 6.09. If they finished 3, their total is 6.26. A finish 4 or above gives them a total of 6.43.

That give us a few scenarios, but basically whoever finished at #2 (assuming that Florida State is #1, a safe assumption since all the other computers had them there) is in. Another way for Nebraska to get in is by finishing 3 or better and Virginia Tech slipping to 4 or worse.

But, I'm going to go out on a limb here and call this one for Virginia Tech. During the BCS years, Wolfe's rankings have always placed undefeated BCS-conference teams above 1-loss teams, and I'm assuming 1999 was no different.

But enough speculation. Onto easier projections.

Version D: 1999
Rank	Team	AP	Votes	AP%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	HiComp%	LoComp%	Hi-Tot	Lo-Tot
1	Florida State	1	1744	0.9966	1	1472	0.9980	1.000	1.000	0.9982	0.9982
2	Virginia Tech	2	1685	0.9629	2	1415	0.9593	0.960	0.950	0.9607	0.9574
3	Nebraska	3	1606	0.9177	3	1330	0.9017	0.930	0.910	0.9165	0.9098
4	Alabama	5	1450	0.8286	6	1183	0.8020	0.860	0.830	0.8302	0.8202
7	Wisconsin	4	1412	0.8069	5	1187	0.8651	0.700	0.650	0.8040	0.7873
5	Tennessee	6	1336	0.7634	7	1145	0.8047	0.800	0.770	0.8039	0.7939
6	Kansas State	7	1482	0.8469	4	1276	0.7763	0.870	0.830	0.8032	0.7899
8	Michigan	8	1226	0.7006	8	1065	0.7220	0.760	0.710	0.7275	0.7109
9	Michigan State	9	1193	0.6817	9	997	0.6759	0.770	0.740	0.7092	0.6992
10	Florida	10	1095	0.6257	10	898	0.6088	0.650	0.620	0.6282	0.6182
12	Marshall	11	772	0.4411	17	586	0.5553	0.560	0.390	0.5712	0.5145
11	Penn State	13	1047	0.5983	11	819	0.3973	0.620	0.610	0.4861	0.4828
13	Minnesota	12	935	0.5343	12	715	0.4847	0.370	0.290	0.4630	0.4363
14	Texas A&M	18	632	0.3611	13	701	0.4753	0.450	0.410	0.4288	0.4155
15	Texas	14	746	0.4263	18	563	0.3817	0.450	0.410	0.4193	0.4060

The computer averages have changed slightly, but those won't concern us here. That minor change of looking at Top 10 for Quality Wins instead of Top 15 sank Nebraska in this version. Their -1.3 became a -.5, giving them no chance at #2. Florida State and Virginia Tech.

Version E: 1999
Rank	Team	AP	Votes	AP%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	HiComp%	LoComp%	Hi-Tot	Lo-Tot
1	Florida State	1	1744	0.9966	1	1472	0.9980	1.000	1.000	0.9982	0.9982
2	Virginia Tech	2	1685	0.9629	2	1415	0.9593	0.960	0.950	0.9607	0.9574
3	Nebraska	3	1606	0.9177	3	1330	0.9017	0.930	0.910	0.9165	0.9098
4	Alabama	5	1450	0.8286	6	1183	0.8020	0.860	0.830	0.8302	0.8202
7	Wisconsin	4	1412	0.8069	5	1187	0.8651	0.700	0.650	0.8040	0.7873
5	Tennessee	6	1336	0.7634	7	1145	0.8047	0.800	0.770	0.8039	0.7939
6	Kansas State	7	1482	0.8469	4	1276	0.7763	0.870	0.830	0.8032	0.7899
8	Michigan	8	1226	0.7006	8	1065	0.7220	0.760	0.710	0.7275	0.7109
9	Michigan State	9	1193	0.6817	9	997	0.6759	0.770	0.740	0.7092	0.6992
10	Florida	10	1095	0.6257	10	898	0.6088	0.650	0.620	0.6282	0.6182
12	Marshall	11	772	0.4411	17	586	0.5553	0.560	0.390	0.5712	0.5145
11	Penn State	13	1047	0.5983	11	819	0.3973	0.620	0.610	0.4861	0.4828
13	Minnesota	12	935	0.5343	12	715	0.4847	0.370	0.290	0.4630	0.4363
14	Texas A&M	18	632	0.3611	13	701	0.4753	0.450	0.410	0.4288	0.4155
15	Texas	14	746	0.4263	18	563	0.3817	0.450	0.410	0.4193	0.4060

Again, Virginia Tech is in #2 definitively. So 4 versions have a Florida State vs Virginia Tech matchup, and 1 more probably has it as well. There's been more than a smattering of consensus between the versions thus far. Too bad it won't last...

1998 < Top > 2000