the 2003 Season

Versions / 1998 / 1999 / 2000 / 2001 / 2002 / 2003 / 2004 / 2005 / 2006 / 2007 / Conclusions

There were no changes to the ranking formula after the 2002 season, so Version D was again used as the Official Rankings in 2003. Here's what they produced in December 2003.

Version D: 2003
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	Comp Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	Sub-Tot	Q-Win	Total
1	Oklahoma	3	3	3	1.17	11	0.44	1	5.61	-0.5	5.11
2	LSU	2	2	2	1.83	29	1.16	1	5.99		5.99
3	USC	1	1	1	2.67	37	1.48	1	6.15		6.15
4	Michigan	4	4	4	4.67	14	0.56	2	11.23	-0.6	10.63
5	Ohio State	7	6	6.5	5.5	7	0.28	2	14.28		14.28
6	Texas	5	5	5	6.83	20	0.80	2	14.63	-0.1	14.53
7	Florida State	9	8	8.5	6.83	15	0.60	2	17.93		17.93
8	Tennessee	6	7	6.5	9.5	46	1.84	2	19.84	-0.2	19.64
9	Miami (FL)	10	9	9.5	8.17	13	0.52	2	20.19	-0.4	19.79
10	Kansas State	8	10	9	11.33	10	0.40	3	23.73	-1.0	22.73
11	Miami (OH)	14	15	14.5	6	68	2.72	1	24.22		24.22
12	Georgia	11	11	11	10.17	18	0.72	3	24.89	-0.3	24.59
13	Iowa	13	12	12.5	13.5	16	0.64	3	29.64	-0.7	28.94
14	Purdue	12	13	12.5	16	40	1.60	3	33.10		33.10
15	Florida	17	17	17	16.5	5	0.20	4	37.70	-0.9	36.8

Should Oklahoma have made it in after rolling through their schedule but then getting blown away by #10 Kansas State in the Big12 Championship? Should USC have made it in after losing halfway through the season at unranked California by a field goal in double overtime? Should LSU have made it in after losing a mid-season game at home to #15 Florida? Or should Miami (OH) have made it in after losing their first game 21-3 at #13 Iowa then running the MAC table? There's 4 teams that had really good arguments for being in the National Championship game this year. Well, we know what actually happened. Let's see what the other versions had to say about the season...

Version A: 2003
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	A&H	JS	NYT	Comp Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	Total
1	Oklahoma	3	3	3	1	1	1.5	1.17	11	0.44	1	5.61
3	USC	1	1	1	3	4	1	2.33	37	1.48	1	5.81
2	LSU	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	29	1.16	1	6.16
4	Michigan	4	4	4	6	5	3	4.67	14	0.56	2	11.23
6	Texas	5	5	5	5	6.75	4	5.25	20	0.80	2	13.05
5	Ohio State	7	6	6.5	6	6	8	6.67	7	0.28	2	15.45
7	Florida State	9	8	8.5	8	7	7	7.33	15	0.60	2	18.43
8	Tennessee	6	7	6.5	10	10	9	9.67	46	1.84	2	20.01
9	Miami (FL)	10	9	9.5	9	11	10	10	13	0.52	2	22.02
11	Miami (OH)	14	15	14.5	4	3	5.25	4.08	68	2.72	1	22.30
10	Kansas State	8	10	9	14.25	13	6	11.08	10	0.40	3	23.48
12	Georgia	11	11	11	12	9	12	11	18	0.72	3	25.72
13	Iowa	13	12	12.5	14	12	15	13.67	16	0.64	3	29.81
14	Purdue	12	13	12.5	15	15	18	16	40	1.60	3	33.10
15	Florida	17	17	17	21.75	16	13	16.92	5	0.20	4	38.12

The switch from LSU to USC as #2 is a result of the computer averages changing - LSU went from 1.83 to 2.00, while USC dropped from 2.67 tp 2.33. So that's something.

But here's something else. Hearkening back to that "Standard Deviation" teaser, here's what the top 3 would have looked like without that rule in place.

Version A: 2003 w/out Standard Deviation Rule
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	A&H	JS	NYT	Comp Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	Total
3	USC	1	1	1	3	4	1	2.67	37	1.48	1	6.15
2	LSU	2	2	2	2	2	2	2.00	29	1.16	1	6.16
1	Oklahoma	3	3	3	1	1	5	2.33	11	0.44	1	6.77

Because the New York Times had Oklahoma ranked #5, behind Michigan & Texas as well as USC & LSU, their computer average jumps from 1.17 to 2.33, putting them into third and making the Sugar Bowl USC vs LSU, the matchup many wanted to see. In fact, 9 teams in the Top 15 BCS rankings would've changed spots in Version A's rendition of 2003 by eliminating the "Standard Deviation" rule. Playing the "what if?" game is enjoyable, but it's also useful for trying to track the shifts and sways of how and why the BCS has changed over the years. More on what all these changes mean at the end of this BCS section.

Version B
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	Comp Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	Total
1	Oklahoma	3	3	3	1.14	11	0.44	1	5.58
2	LSU	2	2	2	1.86	29	1.16	1	6.02
3	USC	1	1	1	2.57	37	1.48	1	6.05
4	Michigan	4	4	4	4.29	14	0.56	2	10.85
6	Texas	5	5	5	5.71	20	0.80	2	13.51
5	Ohio State	7	6	6.5	6.86	7	0.28	2	15.64
7	Florida State	9	8	8.5	7.57	15	0.60	2	18.67
8	Tennessee	6	7	6.5	9.57	46	1.84	2	19.91
10	Kansas State	8	10	9	8.43	10	0.40	3	20.83
9	Miami (FL)	10	9	9.5	9.14	13	0.52	2	21.16
12	Georgia	11	11	11	10.29	18	0.72	3	25.01
11	Miami (OH)	14	15	14.5	7.29	68	2.72	1	25.51
13	Iowa	13	12	12.5	13.14	16	0.64	3	29.28
14	Purdue	12	13	12.5	15.43	40	1.60	3	32.53
15	Florida	17	17	17	15.71	5	0.20	4	36.91

Version C
Rank	Team	AP	Coach	Poll Avg	Comp Avg	SoS	SoS Rank	Loss	Sub-Tot	Q-Win	Total
1	Oklahoma	3	3	3	1	11	0.44	1	5.44	-1.0	4.44
2	LSU	2	2	2	2	29	1.16	1	6.16	-0.5	5.66
3	USC	1	1	1	3	37	1.48	1	6.48		6.48
4	Michigan	4	4	4	5	14	0.56	2	11.56	-1.3	10.26
6	Texas	5	5	5	7.17	20	0.80	2	14.97	-0.6	14.37
5	Ohio State	7	6	6.5	6.17	7	0.28	2	14.95	-0.5	14.45
7	Florida State	9	8	8.5	7.33	15	0.60	2	18.43	-0.1	18.33
9	Miami (FL)	10	9	9.5	9	13	0.52	2	21.02	-1.0	20.02
8	Tennessee	6	7	6.5	10.83	46	1.84	2	21.17	-0.9	20.27
10	Kansas State	8	10	9	11.33	10	0.40	3	23.73	-1.5	22.23
12	Georgia	11	11	11	10.17	18	0.72	3	24.89	-0.7	24.19
11	Miami (OH)	14	15	14.5	6.67	68	2.72	1	24.89		24.89
13	Iowa	13	12	12.5	13	16	0.64	3	29.14	-1.7	27.44
14	Purdue	12	13	12.5	15.5	40	1.60	3	32.60	-0.3	32.30
15	Florida	17	17	17	17.83	5	0.20	4	39.03	-1.9	37.13

Version E
Rank	Team	AP	Votes	AP%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	Comp%	Total
2	LSU	2	1580	0.9723	2	1516	0.9625	0.960	0.9649
3	USC	1	1595	0.9815	1	1542	0.9790	0.920	0.9602
1	Oklahoma	3	1491	0.9175	3	1449	0.9200	1.000	0.9458
4	Michigan	4	1437	0.8843	4	1393	0.8844	0.830	0.8663
6	Texas	5	1322	0.8135	5	1272	0.8076	0.720	0.7804
5	Ohio State	7	1208	0.7434	6	1168	0.7416	0.820	0.7683
7	Florida State	9	1128	0.6942	8	1124	0.7137	0.750	0.7193
8	Tennessee	6	1228	0.7557	7	1145	0.7270	0.630	0.7042
9	Miami (FL)	10	1075	0.6615	9	1044	0.6629	0.700	0.6748
10	Kansas State	8	1151	0.7083	10	1039	0.6597	0.540	0.6360
12	Georgia	11	1018	0.6265	11	999	0.6343	0.630	0.6302
11	Miami (OH)	14	756	0.4652	15	664	0.4216	0.810	0.5656
13	Iowa	13	771	0.4745	12	839	0.5327	0.500	0.5024
14	Purdue	12	849	0.5225	13	762	0.4838	0.400	0.4688
15	Florida	17	619	0.3809	17	550	0.3492	0.320	0.3500

So 3 Versions had Oklahoma vs LSU, 1 version had Oklahoma vs USC, and 1 version had LSU vs USC. This is the second year in which the five different versions of the BCS came up with three different matchups in the National Championship game. Makes you wonder what the 2004 controversy has in store for us...

2002 < Top > 2004