Versions of the BCS: the 2007 Season

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If there was ever a year where there should be a smattering of differences between the versions of the BCS, this is it. We're going to be doing a lot of projecting, so if you're new to this site, you might want to go to the links above to check out other years' results and an explanation of how the different versions have fared up to this point.

By now you've seen the Official Rankings, of course.

Version E-2: Official 2007 BCS Rankings
Rank	Team	Harris	Votes	Harr%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	Comp%	Total
1	Ohio State	1	2813	0.9870	1	1469	0.9793	0.910	0.9588
2	LSU	2	2630	0.9228	2	1418	0.9453	0.950	0.9394
3	Virginia Tech	6	2345	0.8228	5	1242	0.8280	0.960	0.8703
4	Oklahoma	3	2520	0.8842	3	1331	0.8873	0.800	0.8572
5	Georgia	4	2469	0.8663	4	1277	0.8513	0.800	0.8392
6	Missouri	7	2117	0.7428	7	1104	0.7360	0.850	0.7763
7	USC	5	2346	0.8232	6	1227	0.8180	0.650	0.7637
8	Kansas	8	2092	0.7340	8	1099	0.7327	0.810	0.7589
9	West Virginia	9	1924	0.6751	9	1010	0.6733	0.640	0.6628
10	Hawaii	10	1903	0.6677	10	994	0.6627	0.610	0.6468
11	Arizona State	12	1628	0.5712	11	900	0.6000	0.690	0.6204
12	Florida	11	1786	0.6267	12	890	0.5933	0.620	0.6133
13	Illinois	13	1400	0.4912	13	747	0.4980	0.390	0.4597
14	Boston College	14	1124	0.3944	14	617	0.4113	0.570	0.4586
15	Clemson	16	1041	0.3653	16	567	0.3780	0.410	0.3844
16	Tennessee	19	840	0.2947	18	480	0.3200	0.350	0.3216
17	BYU	18	912	0.3200	19	462	0.3080	0.280	0.3027
18	Wisconsin	15	1079	0.3786	15	594	0.3960	0.100	0.2915
19	Texas	17	983	0.3449	17	498	0.3320	0.080	0.2523
20	Virginia	21	551	0.1933	20	332	0.2213	0.290	0.2349
21	South Florida	24	362	0.1270	25	115	0.0767	0.430	0.2112
22	Cincinnati	20	580	0.2035	23	215	0.1433	0.190	0.1789
23	Auburn	23	448	0.1572	21	289	0.1927	0.120	0.1566
24	Boise State	22	541	0.1898	22	246	0.1640	0.000	0.1179
25	Connecticut	25	129	0.0453	24	137	0.0913	0.190	0.1089

Ohio State and LSU, followed closely by Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, & Georgia. Moving on to Version A, used only in 1998, we get something that on the surface looks similar. (Note: The numbers in the "Rank" column on the left denote the official BCS rank of that team, not the rank they would've had in that version.)

Version A: 2007
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo Tot	Hi Tot
1	Ohio State	1	1.17	3	2.08	1	5.25	7.08
2	LSU	2	1.75	4.08	0.52	2	6.27	8.60
3	Virginia Tech	5	1.17	3	0.32	2	8.49	10.32
4	Oklahoma	3	2.33	6.42	1.24	2	8.57	12.66
6	Missouri	7	1.75	4.67	0.56	2	11.31	14.23
5	Georgia	4	4.08	7.58	1.40	2	11.48	14.98
8	Kansas	8	2.33	4.67	3.08	1	14.41	16.75
7	USC	6	5.83	10.5	2.56	2	16.39	21.06
11	Arizona State	11.5	4.67	11.67	1.68	2	19.85	26.85
9	West Virginia	10	6.42	12.25	1.56	2	19.98	25.81
10	Hawaii	10	5.25	11.67	4.76	0	20.01	26.43
12	Florida	10.5	7.00	13.42	0.04	3	20.54	26.96
14	Boston College	14	6.42	14	0.48	3	23.90	31.48
13	Illinois	13	8.17	18.08	0.88	3	25.05	34.96
15	Clemson	15.5	8.75	19.25	1.20	3	28.45	38.95
16	Tennessee	17	9.33	18.67	0.36	4	30.69	40.03
17	BYU	19	11.08	23.92	2.48	2	34.56	47.40
19	Texas	17	12.83	28.58	1.88	3	34.71	50.46
20	Virginia	20.5	9.92	21	2.24	3	35.66	46.74
18	Wisconsin	16.5	14.00	29.17	2.36	3	35.86	51.03
21	South Florida	24	9.33	18.08	0.68	3	37.01	45.76
23	Auburn	21.5	11.67	25.08	1.60	4	38.77	52.18
22	Cincinnati	21.5	13.42	27.42	2.52	3	40.44	54.44
25	Connecticut	24.5	16.33	33.25	2.68	4	47.51	64.43
24	Boise State	23	21	44.33	4.32	2	50.32	73.65

Look at LSU's highest possible total as well as Virginia Tech's & Oklahoma's lowest possible total - there's a slight bit of overlap there. Ohio State's in - the worst they can do in this version is #2. But #2 could also go to either of the other three teams mentioned.

Would it take a miracle for the Hokies or Sooners to be at #2? Nope. In fact, it's very possible. If LSU is worse than #5 in the NYT rankings, they're sitting at their max, 8.60. The way the computer rankings are scattered this year I'd say it could happen easily (especially since the NYT Rankings used to devour teams that lost at the end of the season). All VA Tech or Oklahoma would have to do to jump them is be at #1 or possibly even #2 in the NYT - since they're both #1 in at least one other computer rankings, it could go that way.

I'm not making a call on this one - without the NYT rankings, we just don't know. Onto Version B!

Version B: 2007
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Prob Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo Tot	Prob Tot
1	Ohio State	1	1.71	2.29	2.08	1	5.79	6.37
2	LSU	2	1.71	2	0.52	2	6.23	6.52
3	Virginia Tech	5	2.29	2.29	0.32	2	9.61	9.61
4	Oklahoma	3	3.86	4.43	1.24	2	10.10	10.67
5	Georgia	4	5.29	6.14	1.40	2	12.69	13.54
6	Missouri	7	4.29	6	0.56	2	13.85	15.56
7	USC	6	4.43	5.86	2.56	2	14.99	16.42
8	Kansas	8	3.57	5.29	3.08	1	15.65	17.37
12	Florida	10.5	6.57	8.86	0.04	3	20.11	22.40
10	Hawaii	10	6.57	9.14	4.76	0	21.33	23.90
9	West Virginia	10	8.14	11	1.56	2	21.70	24.56
11	Arizona State	11.5	7	10.14	1.68	2	22.18	25.32
13	Illinois	13	10.71	14.14	0.88	3	27.59	31.02
14	Boston College	14	10.14	13.86	0.48	3	27.62	31.34
15	Clemson	15.5	10.86	14.86	1.20	3	30.56	34.56
16	Tennessee	17	12	16.29	0.36	4	33.36	37.65
17	BYU	19	12.43	17.57	2.48	2	35.91	41.05
18	Wisconsin	16.5	16.43	21.29	2.36	3	38.29	43.15
20	Virginia	20.5	13	18.71	2.24	3	38.74	44.45
21	South Florida	24	11.43	17.71	0.68	3	39.11	45.39
22	Cincinnati	21.5	15.29	20.71	2.52	3	42.31	47.73
23	Auburn	21.5	15.43	21.43	1.60	4	42.53	48.53
25	Connecticut	24.5	17	23.86	2.68	4	48.18	55.04

Instead of Lo Total & Hi Total, this table has Lo Total and Probable Total because we're missing 2 sets of computer rankings. Unlike Version A which had 3 computer rankings, there are 8 computer rankings in this version, making each computer worth significantly less in the overall scheme of things. Because each one has less of an impact, differences between them are mimimized, allowing us to better estimate where teams fall. This one is another projection, and though I can't say it's an absolute mathematical certainty, the likelihood of the chips falling any other way is extremely slim. Once again, it's Ohio State and LSU. Virginia Tech, as is the story this year, gets done in by their poll ranking.

Version C: 2007
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo Sub	Hi Sub	Hi Q-Win	Lo Q-Win	Lo Tot	Hi Tot
2	LSU	2	2	2.67	0.52	2	6.52	7.19	-2.0	-1.9	4.52	5.29
1	Ohio State	1	2.5	3.17	2.08	1	6.58	7.25			6.58	7.25
3	Virginia Tech	5	2.17	2.67	0.32	2	9.49	9.99	-0.5	-0.4	8.99	9.59
4	Oklahoma	3	5.67	6.67	1.24	2	11.91	12.91	-1.0	-1.0	10.91	11.91
5	Georgia	4	6	7	1.40	2	13.40	14.40	-0.7	-0.6	12.70	13.80
6	Missouri	7	5.17	6.5	0.56	2	14.73	16.06	-1.1	-1.0	13.63	15.06
8	Kansas	8	4.83	6	3.08	1	16.91	18.08			16.91	18.08
7	USC	6	7.83	9.33	2.56	2	18.39	19.89	-0.6	-0.4	17.79	19.49
12	Florida	10.5	9.33	10.17	0.04	3	22.87	23.71			22.87	23.71
9	West Virginia	10	9.83	12.5	1.56	2	23.39	26.06			23.39	26.06
10	Hawaii	10	9.5	10.83	4.76	0	24.26	25.59			24.26	25.59
11	Arizona State	11.5	9.17	10.83	1.68	2	24.35	26.01			24.35	26.01
14	Boston College	14	11.83	13.5	0.48	3	29.31	30.98	-1.5	-1.4	27.81	29.58
13	Illinois	13	16.17	18	0.88	3	33.05	34.88	-1.5	-1.4	31.55	33.48
15	Clemson	15.5	14.67	16.67	1.20	3	34.37	36.37			34.37	36.37
16	Tennessee	17	16.5	17.5	0.36	4	37.86	38.86	-1.1	-1.1	36.76	37.76

By virtue of their wins over Virginia Tech and Florida, LSU jumps Ohio State for #1 in this Version. But the Buckeyes are still sitting pretty at #2.

Version D: 2007
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo Sub	Hi Sub	Hi Q-Win	Lo Q-Win	Lo Tot	Hi Tot
2	LSU	2	1.83	2.5	0.52	2	6.35	7.02	-1.0	-0.8	5.35	6.22
1	Ohio State	1	2.5	3.17	2.08	1	6.58	7.25			6.58	7.25
3	Virginia Tech	5	1.67	2.17	0.32	2	8.99	9.49			8.99	9.49
4	Oklahoma	3	4.5	5.67	1.24	2	10.74	11.91	-0.6	-0.5	10.14	11.41
5	Georgia	4	4.67	6	1.40	2	12.07	13.40	-0.2		11.87	13.40
6	Missouri	7	3.67	5.17	0.56	2	13.23	14.73	-0.4	-0.3	12.83	14.43
8	Kansas	8	4.5	6	3.08	1	16.58	18.08			16.58	18.08
7	USC	6	7.17	9	2.56	2	17.73	19.56	-0.2		17.53	19.56
9	West Virginia	10	7.83	9.83	1.56	2	21.39	23.39			21.39	23.39
12	Florida	10.5	8.33	10.17	0.04	3	21.87	23.71			21.87	23.71
11	Arizona State	11.5	7.17	9.17	1.68	2	22.35	24.35			22.35	24.35
10	Hawaii	10	8.67	10.83	4.76	0	23.43	25.59			23.43	25.59
14	Boston College	14	9.67	11.83	0.48	3	27.15	29.31	-0.8	-0.8	26.35	28.51
13	Illinois	13	13.17	16.17	0.88	3	30.05	33.05	-1.0	-0.9	29.05	32.15
15	Clemson	15.5	13	16.67	1.20	3	32.70	36.37			32.70	36.37
16	Tennessee	17	14.17	17.5	0.36	4	35.53	38.86	-0.6	-0.5	34.93	38.36
17	BYU	19	15.5	19.33	2.48	2	38.98	42.81			38.98	42.81
20	Virginia	20.5	15.33	19.17	2.24	3	41.07	44.91			41.07	44.91
22	Cincinnati	21.5	17.67	21.67	2.52	3	44.69	48.69			44.69	48.69
25	Connecticut	24.5	20.33	25.83	2.68	4	51.51	57.01			51.51	57.01

Withough the Quality Win points, this one would've been a dead heat between LSU & Ohio State, but LSU stays in front because of their solid wins.

Version E: 2007
Rank	Team	AP	Votes	AP%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	Comp%	Total
1	Ohio State	1	1578	0.9711	1	1469	0.9793	0.910	0.9535
2	LSU	2	1519	0.9348	2	1418	0.9453	0.950	0.9434
3	Virginia Tech	5	1380	0.8492	5	1242	0.8280	0.960	0.8791
4	Oklahoma	3	1423	0.8757	3	1331	0.8873	0.800	0.8543
5	Georgia	4	1421	0.8745	4	1277	0.8513	0.800	0.8419
6	Missouri	7	1195	0.7354	7	1104	0.7360	0.850	0.7738
7	USC	6	1346	0.8283	6	1227	0.8180	0.650	0.7654
8	Kansas	8	1164	0.7163	8	1099	0.7327	0.810	0.7530
9	West Virginia	11	1040	0.6400	9	1010	0.6733	0.640	0.6511
10	Hawaii	10	1050	0.6462	10	994	0.6627	0.610	0.6396
12	Florida	9	1071	0.6591	12	890	0.5933	0.620	0.6241
11	Arizona State	12	939	0.5778	11	900	0.6000	0.690	0.6226
14	Boston College	14	668	0.4111	14	617	0.4113	0.570	0.4641
13	Illinois	13	797	0.4905	13	747	0.4980	0.390	0.4595
15	Clemson	15	614	0.3778	16	567	0.3780	0.410	0.3886
16	Tennessee	16	554	0.3409	18	480	0.3200	0.350	0.3370
17	BYU	19	439	0.2702	19	462	0.3080	0.280	0.2861
18	Wisconsin	18	447	0.2751	15	594	0.3960	0.100	0.2570
19	Texas	17	517	0.3182	17	498	0.3320	0.080	0.2434
20	Virginia	21	344	0.2117	20	332	0.2213	0.290	0.2410
21	South Florida	23	246	0.1514	25	115	0.0767	0.430	0.2194
22	Cincinnati	20	394	0.2425	23	215	0.1433	0.190	0.1919
23	Auburn	22	264	0.1625	21	289	0.1927	0.120	0.1584
25	Connecticut	25	173	0.1065	24	137	0.0913	0.190	0.1293
24	Boise State	24	221	0.1360	22	246	0.1640	0.000	0.1000

And finally, Version E, the one that included the AP Poll instead of the Harris. They look almost exactly the same, with nothing changing until you get past the top 10.

So most of the versions have some form of LSU vs Ohio State, and the major differences didn't really show themselves. (Version A is the loner, but maybe someday we'll get to include it...) What does this add to our knowledge about the different versions of the BCS? Well for one thing it shows once again that all the tweaking and changing that has occured over the past decade really hasn't done much - this is the 4th year in a row that (nearly) all of the versions have produced the same results. It shows how slow change is in the system, and it'll be interesting to see if all the clamor for a playoff (which should be louder than ever now) speeds it up any.

Thanks for visiting, and be sure to stop by during the next few weeks for bowl analysis and other seasonal wrap-up posts.