the 2006 Season

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A lot of the controversy and grumblings this year revolved around the usual, not trying to determine who's #1 (Ohio State easily), but who's #2. Michigan and Florida both have claims on the spot. Let's see who's #2 in the Versions...

First, the Official Rankings, brought to you by Version E-2.

Version E-2: 2006
Rank	Team	Harris	Votes	Harr%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	Comp%	Total
1	Ohio State	1	2824	0.9996	1	1550	1.0000	1.000	0.9999
2	Florida	2	2670	0.9451	2	1470	0.9484	0.940	0.9445
3	Michigan	3	2632	0.9317	3	1444	0.9316	0.940	0.9344
4	LSU	4	2372	0.8396	4	1299	0.8381	0.820	0.8326
5	USC	7	2173	0.7692	7	1173	0.7568	0.860	0.7953
6	Louisville	5	2272	0.8042	6	1223	0.7890	0.790	0.7944
7	Wisconsin	6	2229	0.7890	5	1263	0.8148	0.640	0.7480
8	Boise State	9	1950	0.6903	9	1053	0.6794	0.760	0.7099
9	Auburn	10	1725	0.6106	10	1000	0.6452	0.690	0.6486
10	Oklahoma	8	1977	0.6998	8	1115	0.7194	0.470	0.6297
11	Notre Dame	10	1725	0.6106	11	923	0.5955	0.680	0.6287
12	Arkansas	13	1483	0.5250	13	798	0.5148	0.510	0.5166
13	West Virginia	12	1485	0.5257	12	800	0.5161	0.480	0.5073
14	Wake Forest	14	1366	0.4835	15	745	0.4806	0.330	0.4314
15	Virginia Tech	15	1358	0.4807	14	781	0.5039	0.300	0.4282
16	Rutgers	16	1083	0.3834	17	567	0.3658	0.480	0.4097
17	Tennessee	18	940	0.3327	18	500	0.3226	0.500	0.3851
18	California	20	736	0.2605	19	436	0.2813	0.540	0.3606
19	Texas	17	952	0.3370	16	582	0.3755	0.150	0.2875
20	BYU	19	838	0.2966	20	369	0.2381	0.090	0.2082
21	Texas A&M	21	551	0.1950	21	303	0.1955	0.050	0.1468
22	Oregon State	26	127	0.0450	25	72	0.0465	0.340	0.1438
23	Nebraska	22	352	0.1246	22	242	0.1561	0.000	0.0936
24	Boston College	23	318	0.1126	23	175	0.1129	0.040	0.0885

As usual, we'll start with the original, Version A, and as usual, we've gotta do some math and make a prediction. The green "Lo Comp" & "Hi Comp" columns are the lowest and highest possible computer averages for each team, depending on where the NYT would have ranked them. The green "Totals" columns are all of the other components added to the Lo & Hi computer averages.

Version A: 2006
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo-Tot	Hi-Tot
1	Ohio State	1	1	1.17	1.08	0	3.08	3.25
2	Florida	2	1.75	2.92	0.12	1	4.87	6.04
3	Michigan	3	1.75	2.92	0.08	1	5.83	7.00
4	LSU	4	3	5.25	0.44	2	9.44	11.69
6	Louisville	5.5	3.67	10.5	0.92	1	11.09	17.92
5	USC	7.5	3	5.83	0.04	2	12.54	15.37
7	Wisconsin	5.5	5.67	13.42	3.24	1	15.41	23.16
8	Boise State	9	4.33	7.58	3.40	0	16.73	19.98
9	Auburn	10	5	9.33	0.76	2	17.76	22.09
10	Oklahoma	7.5	7.67	17.5	1.68	2	18.85	28.68
11	Notre Dame	11	5.67	9.92	0.88	2	19.55	23.80
12	Arkansas	12.5	7	15.17	1.00	3	23.5	31.67
13	West Virginia	12.5	8.33	17.5	1.36	2	24.19	33.36
16	Rutgers	16.5	7	14.58	1.48	2	26.98	34.56
17	Tennessee	17.5	8.33	14.58	0.40	3	29.23	35.48
15	Virginia Tech	14	12.33	23.33	1.76	2	30.09	41.09
18	California	19.5	7.67	14.58	0.56	3	30.73	37.64
14	Wake Forest	15	11.67	22.17	2.84	2	31.51	42.01
19	Texas	17	13.67	28	0.60	3	34.27	48.60
22	Oregon State	24.5	9.67	19.25	0.64	4	38.81	48.39
20	BYU	19.5	15	30.92	3.08	2	39.58	55.50
21	Texas A&M	21	15.67	36.75	2.28	3	41.95	63.03
24	Boston College	23	17	32.08	1.44	3	44.44	59.52
23	Nebraska	22	17.67	37.92	1.52	4	45.19	65.44

As you can see, there's some overlap between #2 Florida's worst (Hi-Tot) and #3 Michigan's best (Lo-Tot). But, in doing the math, the only way for Michigan to be ahead of Florida in this version is for them to be ranked #1 in the NY Times poll, while Florida would have to be no better than #4. With Ohio State firmly at #1 this year, I don't see it happening. I'm calling this one for Florida.

Version B: 2006
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo-Tot	Hi-Tot
1	Ohio State	1	1	1	1.08	0	3.08	3.08
2	Florida	2	2.43	3.86	0.12	1	5.55	6.98
3	Michigan	3	2.14	3	0.08	1	6.22	7.08
4	LSU	4	4.71	5.86	0.44	2	11.15	12.30
6	Louisville	5.5	4.29	6	0.92	1	11.71	13.42
5	USC	7.5	3.86	4.86	0.04	2	13.40	14.40
7	Wisconsin	5.5	9.43	11.43	3.24	1	19.17	21.17
8	Boise State	9	7.14	9.57	3.40	0	19.54	21.97
9	Auburn	10	7.43	13.86	0.76	2	20.19	26.62
10	Oklahoma	7.5	10	12.57	1.68	2	21.18	23.75
11	Notre Dame	11	9.29	13.14	0.88	2	23.17	27.02
12	Arkansas	12.5	10.86	13.43	1.00	3	27.36	29.93
13	West Virginia	12.5	11.57	15.14	1.36	2	27.43	31.00
17	Tennessee	17.5	10.86	14	0.40	3	31.76	34.9
15	Virginia Tech	14	14.14	18.57	1.76	2	31.90	36.33
16	Rutgers	16.5	12.71	16.86	1.48	2	32.69	36.84
18	California	19.5	10.43	13.43	0.56	3	33.49	36.49
14	Wake Forest	15	16.43	20.71	2.84	2	36.27	40.55
19	Texas	17	17.57	21.43	0.60	3	38.17	42.03
20	BYU	19.5	18.29	22.57	3.08	2	42.87	47.15
22	Oregon State	24.5	15.14	18.71	0.64	4	44.28	47.85
21	Texas A&M	21	22.57	28.14	2.28	3	48.85	54.42
24	Boston College	23	23.71	29	1.44	3	51.15	56.44
23	Nebraska	22	25.71	31.14	1.52	4	53.23	58.66

With Version B, we'll have to make a prediction since the NYT polls is missing. But I'm going to make the call for Florida, since in order for Michigan to be at #2 they'd have to be at least 5 spots ahead of Florida in the NY Times poll. So if Michigan was #1 in the NYT, Florida could be no better than #6 for the Wolverines to sit at #2 overall. I don't see that happening, though it is theoretically possible. So Florida gets another confident nod.

Version C: 2006
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Comp Avg	SoS Pts	Loss	Sub	Q-Win	Total
1	Ohio State	1	1	1.08	0	3.08	-1.3	1.78
2	Florida	2	2.67	0.12	1	5.79	-1.8	3.99
3	Michigan	3	2.33	0.08	1	6.41	-1.4	5.01
4	LSU	4	5.67	0.44	2	12.11	-0.6	11.51
6	Louisville	5.5	5.67	0.92	1	13.09	-0.3	12.79
5	USC	7.5	4.5	0.04	2	14.04	-1.1	12.94
9	Auburn	10	8.33	0.76	2	21.09	-2.6	18.49
8	Boise State	9	7.5	3.40	0	19.90		19.90
7	Wisconsin	5.5	10.83	3.24	1	20.57		20.57
11	Notre Dame	11	9.83	0.88	2	23.71		23.71
10	Oklahoma	7.5	14.17	1.68	2	25.35		25.35
12	Arkansas	12.5	12.83	1.00	3	29.33	-0.9	28.43
13	West Virginia	12.5	13.5	1.36	2	29.36		29.36
16	Rutgers	16.5	14.67	1.48	2	34.65	-1.1	33.55
17	Tennessee	17.5	12.83	0.40	3	33.73	-0.1	33.63
18	California	19.5	11.5	0.56	3	34.56		34.56
15	Virginia Tech	14	17.67	1.76	2	35.43		35.43
14	Wake Forest	15	18.5	2.84	2	38.34		38.34
19	Texas	17	21.83	0.60	3	42.43	-0.5	41.93
22	Oregon State	24.5	18	0.64	4	47.14	-1.0	46.14
20	BYU	19.5	23.67	3.08	2	48.25		48.25
24	Boston College	23	26.17	1.44	3	53.61		53.61
21	Texas A&M	21	29.83	2.28	3	56.11		56.11
23	Nebraska	22	31	1.52	4	58.52		58.52

This one's set in stone, and in looking at the Quality Win component for the first time we see that Florida and Michigan are pretty close in this area. Florida had wins over LSU & Arkansas, while Michigan had wins over Notre Dame and Wisconsin. So that component is pretty much a wash. And even thought Michigan has the lead in both the Computer Avg. and SoS, being a full point behind in the polls killed them here. If they had used votes instead of poll rankings in Version C, this one might look different. But since they didn't, it's Florida.

Version D: 2006
Rank	Team	Poll Avg	Lo Comp	Hi Comp	SoS Pts	Loss	Lo-Sub	Hi-Sub	Hi-QW	Lo-QW	Lo-Tot	Hi-Tot
1	Ohio State	1	1	1.17	1.08	0	3.08	3.25	-0.8	-0.8	2.28	2.45
2	Florida	2	2	2.33	0.12	1	5.12	5.45	-0.7	-0.7	4.42	4.75
3	Michigan	3	2.17	2.5	0.08	1	6.25	6.58	-0.4	-0.2	5.85	6.38
4	LSU	4	4.5	5.83	0.44	2	10.94	12.27			10.94	12.27
5	USC	7.5	3.83	5	0.04	2	13.37	14.54	-0.1	0.0	13.27	14.54
6	Louisville	5.5	5	7	0.92	1	12.42	14.42			12.42	14.42
7	Wisconsin	5.5	7.67	10	3.24	1	17.41	19.74			17.41	19.74
8	Boise State	9	5.83	7.33	3.40	0	18.23	19.73			18.23	19.73
9	Auburn	10	7	9.17	0.76	2	19.76	21.93	-1.6	-1.6	18.16	20.33
10	Oklahoma	7.5	10.83	13.83	1.68	2	22.01	25.01			22.01	25.01
11	Notre Dame	11	7.33	9	0.88	2	21.21	22.88			21.21	22.88
12	Arkansas	12.5	10.33	13	1.00	3	26.83	29.5	-0.1	0.0	26.73	29.5
13	West Virginia	12.5	11.33	14.17	1.36	2	27.19	30.03			27.19	30.03
14	Wake Forest	15	14	17.33	2.84	2	33.84	37.17			33.84	37.17
15	Virginia Tech	14	13.5	17	1.76	2	31.26	34.76			31.26	34.76
16	Rutgers	16.5	11.17	13.67	1.48	2	31.15	33.65	-0.5	-0.4	30.65	33.25
17	Tennessee	17.5	11.17	13.67	0.40	3	32.07	34.57			32.07	34.57
18	California	19.5	10.17	13.17	0.56	3	33.23	36.23			33.23	36.23
19	Texas	17	18.67	23.17	0.60	3	39.27	43.77			39.27	43.77
20	BYU	19.5	20.17	25.17	3.08	2	44.75	49.75			44.75	49.75
21	Texas A&M	21	22.17	28.67	2.28	3	48.45	54.95			48.45	54.95
22	Oregon State	24.5	14.17	18.33	0.64	4	43.31	47.47			43.31	47.47
23	Nebraska	22	24.83	31.17	1.52	4	52.35	58.69			52.35	58.69
24	Boston College	23	21.83	26.83	1.44	3	49.27	54.27			49.27	54.27

Either Louisville or USC could be at #5, but it's too close to call without the NY Times rankings. That in turn affects the Quality Win component... but not enough to change around the top 4. This one is a projection, but this time it's a mathematical certainty - Florida again.

Version E: 2006
Rank	Team	AP	Votes	AP%	Coach	Votes	Coach%	Comp%	Total
1	Ohio State	1	1625	1.0000	1	1550	1.0000	1.000	1.0000
2	Florida	2	1529	0.9409	2	1470	0.9484	0.940	0.9431
3	Michigan	3	1526	0.9391	3	1444	0.9316	0.940	0.9369
4	LSU	4	1365	0.8400	4	1299	0.8381	0.820	0.8327
6	Louisville	5	1333	0.8203	6	1223	0.7890	0.790	0.7998
7	USC	8	1182	0.7274	7	1173	0.7568	0.860	0.7814
5	Wisconsin	6	1255	0.7723	5	1263	0.8148	0.640	0.7424
9	Boise State	9	1097	0.6751	9	1053	0.6794	0.760	0.7048
10	Auburn	10	1020	0.6277	10	1000	0.6452	0.690	0.6543
8	Oklahoma	7	1232	0.7582	8	1115	0.7194	0.470	0.6492
11	Notre Dame	11	939	0.5778	11	923	0.5955	0.680	0.6178
13	Arkansas	12	867	0.5335	13	798	0.5148	0.510	0.5195
12	West Virginia	13	865	0.5323	12	800	0.5161	0.480	0.5095
14	Virginia Tech	14	798	0.4911	14	781	0.5039	0.300	0.4316
15	Wake Forest	15	766	0.4714	15	745	0.4806	0.330	0.4273

And just for fun, the original Version E, using the AP Poll instead of the Harris. The only difference between the AP and Harris Top 10's was USC or Oklahoma at #7 or #8, so the effect on the votes and percentages is negligible. Florida.

So with all the versions complete, it would see that there's a near consensus for Florida at #2. This is probably a bit misleading though, since three of the versions used poll rankings instead of voting, in which Florida was ahead of Michigan by the slimmest of margins. Let's wrap this up, shall we?

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